Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global numerical weather prediction model.

The inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high-resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three-dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing long-wave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propagate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high-latitude clean-air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short-range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low-level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a more realistic treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

Two fast radiative transfer methods to improve the temporal sampling of clouds in numerical weather prediction and climate models

The high computational cost of calculating the radiative heating rates in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models requires that calculations are made infrequently, leading to poor sampling of the fast-changing cloud field and a poor representation of the feedback that would occur. This paper presents two related schemes for improving the temporal sampling of the cloud field. Firstly, the ‘split time-stepping’ scheme takes advantage of the independent nature of the monochromatic calculations of the ‘correlated-k’ method to split the calculation into gaseous absorption terms that are highly dependent on changes in cloud (the optically thin terms) and those that are not (optically thick). The small number of optically thin terms can then be calculated more often to capture changes in the grey absorption and scattering associated with cloud droplets and ice crystals. Secondly, the ‘incremental time-stepping’ scheme uses a simple radiative transfer calculation using only one or two monochromatic calculations representing the optically thin part of the atmospheric spectrum. These are found to be sufficient to represent the heating rate increments caused by changes in the cloud field, which can then be added to the last full calculation of the radiation code. We test these schemes in an operational forecast model configuration and find a significant improvement is achieved, for a small computational cost, over the current scheme employed at the Met Office. The ‘incremental time-stepping’ scheme is recommended for operational use, along with a new scheme to correct the surface fluxes for the change in solar zenith angle between radiation calculations.

Asset liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS

This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique - robust optimization - that is well suited to solving the asset-liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximise the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components - active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme’s projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes-Stein, and Black-Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144 month out-of-sample period robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria, and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks.

A Posteriori analysis of discontinuous Galerkin schemes for systems of hyperbolic conservation laws

In this work we construct reliable a posteriori estimates for some semi- (spatially) discrete discontinuous Galerkin schemes applied to nonlinear systems of hyperbolic conservation laws. We make use of appropriate reconstructions of the discrete solution together with the relative entropy stability framework, which leads to error control in the case of smooth solutions. The methodology we use is quite general and allows for a posteriori control of discontinuous Galerkin schemes with standard flux choices which appear in the approximation of conservation laws. In addition to the analysis, we conduct some numerical benchmarking to test the robustness of the resultant estimator.

On aposteriori error analysis of dG schemes approximating hyperbolic conservation laws

This contribution is concerned with aposteriori error analysis of discontinuous Galerkin (dG) schemes approximating hyperbolic conservation laws. In the scalar case the aposteriori analysis is based on the L1 contraction property and the doubling of variables technique. In the system case the appropriate stability framework is in L2, based on relative entropies. It is only applicable if one of the solutions, which are compared to each other, is Lipschitz. For dG schemes approximating hyperbolic conservation laws neither the entropy solution nor the numerical solution need to be Lipschitz. We explain how this obstacle can be overcome using a reconstruction approach which leads to an aposteriori error estimate.

An evaluation of three upwinding approximations for numerical modeling the flow in tubular membrane of Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids

In this paper, the laminar fluid flow of Newtonian and non-Newtonian of aqueous solutions in a tubular membrane is numerically studied. The mathematical formulation, with associated initial and boundary conditions for cylindrical coordinates, comprises the mass conservation, momentum conservation and mass transfer equations. These equations are discretized by using the finite-difference technique on a staggered grid system. Comparisons of the three upwinding schemes for discretization of the non-linear (convective) terms are presented. The effects of several physical parameters on the concentration profile are investigated. The numerical results compare favorably with experimental data and the analytical solutions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical study of the atmospheric flow over a coastal cliff

This work presents a numerical method suitable for the study of the development of internal boundary layers (IBL) and their characteristics for flows over various types of coastal cliffs. The IBL is an important meteorological occurrence for flows with surface roughness and topographical step changes. A two-dimensional flow program was used for this study. The governing equations were written using the vorticity-velocity formulation. The spatial derivatives were discretized by high-order compact finite differences schemes. The time integration was performed with a low storage fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme. The coastal cliff (step) was specified through an immersed boundary method. The validation of the code was done by comparison of the results with experimental and observational data. The numerical simulations were carried out for different coastal cliff heights and inclinations. The results show that the predominant factors for the height of the IBL and its characteristics are the upstream velocity, and the height and form (inclination) of the coastal cliff. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On the construction of explicit exponential based schemes for Stiff SDEs

Trabalho apresentado Numerical Solution of Differential and Differential-Algebraic Equations (NUMDIFF-14), Halle, 7-11 Sep 2015

Numerical approximation of the Ginzburg-Landau equation with memory effects in the dynamics of phase transitions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Numerical assessment of mass conservation on a MAC-type method for viscoelastic free surface flows

A numerical study of mass conservation of MAC-type methods is presented, for viscoelastic free-surface flows. We use an implicit formulation which allows for greater time steps, and therefore time marching schemes for advecting the free surface marker particles have to be accurate in order to preserve the good mass conservation properties of this methodology. We then present an improvement by using a Runge-Kutta scheme coupled with a local linear extrapolation on the free surface. A thorough study of the viscoelastic impacting drop problem, for both Oldroyd-B and XPP fluid models, is presented, investigating the influence of timestep, grid spacing and other model parameters to the overall mass conservation of the method. Furthermore, an unsteady fountain flow is also simulated to illustrate the low mass conservation error obtained.

Stability analysis of Crank-Nicolson and Euler schemes for time-dependent diffusion equations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Variational and perturbative schemes for a spiked harmonic oscillator

A variational analysis of the spiked harmonic oscillator Hamiltonian operator - d2/dx2 + x2 + l(l + 1)/x2 + λ|x| -α, where α is a real positive parameter, is reported in this work. The formalism makes use of the functional space spanned by the solutions of the Schrödinger equation for the linear harmonic oscillator Hamiltonian supplemented by a Dirichlet boundary condition, and a standard procedure for diagonalizing symmetric matrices. The eigenvalues obtained by increasing the dimension of the basis set provide accurate approximations for the ground state energy of the model system, valid for positive and relatively large values of the coupling parameter λ. Additionally, a large coupling perturbative expansion is carried out and the contributions up to fourth-order to the ground state energy are explicitly evaluated. Numerical results are compared for the special case α = 5/2. © 1989 American Institute of Physics.

Numerical study of Mach number and thermal effects on sound radiation by a mixing layer

Mach number and thermal effects on the mechanisms of sound generation and propagation are investigated in spatially evolving two-dimensional isothermal and non-isothermal mixing layers at Mach number ranging from 0.2 to 0.4 and Reynolds number of 400. A characteristic-based formulation is used to solve by direct numerical simulation the compressible Navier-Stokes equations using high-order schemes. The radiated sound is directly computed in a domain that includes both the near-field aerodynamic source region and the far-field sound propagation. In the isothermal mixing layer, Mach number effects may be identified in the acoustic field through an increase of the directivity associated with the non-compactness of the acoustic sources. Baroclinic instability effects may be recognized in the non-isothermal mixing layer, as the presence of counter-rotating vorticity layers, the resulting acoustic sources being found less efficient. An analysis based on the acoustic analogy shows that the directivity increase with the Mach number can be associated with the emergence of density fluctuations of weak amplitude but very efficient in terms of noise generation at shallow angle. This influence, combined with convection and refraction effects, is found to shape the acoustic wavefront pattern depending on the Mach number.

Numerical simulation of drop impact and jet buckling problems using the eXtended Pom-Pom model

This work presents numerical simulations of two fluid flow problems involving moving free surfaces: the impacting drop and fluid jet buckling. The viscoelastic model used in these simulations is the eXtended Pom-Pom (XPP) model. To validate the code, numerical predictions of the drop impact problem for Newtonian and Oldroyd-B fluids are presented and compared with other methods. In particular, a benchmark on numerical simulations for a XPP drop impacting on a rigid plate is performed for a wide range of the relevant parameters. Finally, to provide an additional application of free surface flows of XPP fluids, the viscous jet buckling problem is simulated and discussed. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach

The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact.