A general framework to testing the effect of transport policy measures to achieve a modal shift: a sequental hybrid model

In order to achieve to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. In the transport modelling literature there has been an increasing awareness that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users? social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced, but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely deal. In this paper, factorial and path analyses through a Multiple-Indicator Multiple-Cause (MIMIC) model are used to understand and describe the relationship between the different psychological and environmental constructs with social influence and socioeconomic variables. The MIMIC model generates Latent Variables (LVs) to be incorporated sequentially into Discrete Choice Models (DCM) where the levels of service and cost attributes of travel modes are also included directly to measure the effect of the transport policies that have been introduced in Madrid during the last three years in the context of the economic crisis. The data used for this paper are collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) of Madrid.

From Analysis Model to Software Architecture: a PIM2PIM Mapping.

To our knowledge, no current software development methodology explicitly describes how to transit from the analysis model to the software architecture of the application. This paper presents a method to derive the software architecture of a system from its analysis model. To do this, we are going to use MDA. Both the analysis model and the architectural model are PIMs described with UML 2. The model type mapping designed consists of several rules (expressed using OCL and natural language) that, when applied to the analysis artifacts, generate the software architecture of the application. Specifically the rules act on elements of the UML 2 metamodel (metamodel mapping). We have developed a tool (using Smalltalk) that permits the automatic application of these rules to an analysis model defined in RoseTM to generate the application architecture expressed in the architectural style C2.

A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation

The main objective of this paper is the development and application of multivariate time series models for forecasting aggregated wind power production in a country or region. Nowadays, in Spain, Denmark or Germany there is an increasing penetration of this kind of renewable energy, somehow to reduce energy dependence on the exterior, but always linked with the increaseand uncertainty affecting the prices of fossil fuels. The disposal of accurate predictions of wind power generation is a crucial task both for the System Operator as well as for all the agents of the Market. However, the vast majority of works rarely onsider forecasting horizons longer than 48 hours, although they are of interest for the system planning and operation. In this paper we use Dynamic Factor Analysis, adapting and modifying it conveniently, to reach our aim: the computation of accurate forecasts for the aggregated wind power production in a country for a forecasting horizon as long as possible, particularly up to 60 days (2 months). We illustrate this methodology and the results obtained for real data in the leading country in wind power production: Denmark

Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety

Road accidents are a very relevant issue in many countries and macroeconomic models are very frequently applied by academia and administrations to reduce their frequency and consequences. The selection of explanatory variables and response transformation parameter within the Bayesian framework for the selection of the set of explanatory variables a TIM and 3IM (two input and three input models) procedures are proposed. The procedure also uses the DIC and pseudo -R2 goodness of fit criteria. The model to which the methodology is applied is a dynamic regression model with Box-Cox transformation (BCT) for the explanatory variables and autorgressive (AR) structure for the response. The initial set of 22 explanatory variables are identified. The effects of these factors on the fatal accident frequency in Spain, during 2000-2012, are estimated. The dependent variable is constructed considering the stochastic trend component.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models.

In this study we are proposing a Bayesian model selection methodology, where the best model from the list of candidate structural explanatory models is selected. The model structure is based on the Zellner's (1971)explanatory model with autoregressive errors. For the selection technique we are using a parsimonious model, where the model variables are transformed using Box and Cox (1964) class of transformations.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

Fish physiology put into practice: A robotic fish model

Underwater creatures are capable of high performance movements in water. Thus, underwaterrobot design based on the mechanism of fish locomotion appears to be a promising approach.Over the past few years, researches have been developing underwater robots based on underwatercreatures swimming mechanism.

Resilence, rural development and suistainable management: a working with people model approach

Nowadays, it has become evident the need to seek sustainable development models that address challenges arising in a variety of contexts. The resilience concept appears connected to the ability of people to cope with adversities that inevitably arise due to context dynamics, at different spatial and temporal scales. This concept is related to the model known as Working With People (WWP), focused on rural development projects planning, management and evaluation, from the integration of three dimensions: technical-entrepreneurial, ethical-social and political-contextual. The research reported is part of the RETHINK European Project, whose overall aim is farm modernization and rural resilience. The resilience concept has been analyzed, in the scope of rural development projects management, and a relationship with the WWP model has been established. To this end, a thorough review of the scientific literature concerning this topic has been addressed, in order to develop the state of the art of the different concepts and models involved. A conceptual proposal for the integration of resilience in rural development projects sustainable management, through the three-dimensional WWP model is presented.

Best practices for school leaders: Implementation of a profesional competence model for school management in Chile

In Chile, during the last three decades there has been a strong decentralization process whose main objective has been to improve the management of schools through the transfer of responsibilities and resources of education and thus improve the outcome of learning, reducing equity gaps between schools and territories. This is how, there has been an evolution of school principals¿ professional profile from an administrative to a management approach, in which principals have become project managers of educational projects. From a competence model for school leaders, based on IPMA guidelines, the present article presents an analysis of best practices for school management, allowing to generate a link between competencies and school management, from the perspective of project management. Results showed that the different competence elements, have relative weights according to the different practice fields, and that this analysis can be considered as a strategic element in educational project planning and development.

Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO2, O3, SO2, NH3, PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.

SemQuaRE - An extension of the SQuaRE quality model for the evaluation of semantic technologies

To correctly evaluate semantic technologies and to obtain results that can be easily integrated, we need to put evaluations under the scope of a unique software quality model. This paper presents SemQuaRE, a quality model for semantic technologies. SemQuaRE is based on the SQuaRE standard and describes a set of quality characteristics specific to semantic technologies and the quality measures that can be used for their measurement. It also provides detailed formulas for the calculation of such measures. The paper shows that SemQuaRE is complete with respect to current evaluation trends and that it has been successfully applied in practice.

Transfer of human serum IgG to nonobese diabetic Igμnull mice reveals a role for autoantibodies in the loss of secretory function of exocrine tissues in Sjögren’s syndrome

The NOD (nonobese diabetic) mouse has been studied as an animal model for autoimmune insulin-dependent diabetes and Sjögren’s syndrome. NOD.Igμnull mice, which lack functional B lymphocytes, develop progressive histopathologic lesions of the submandibular and lachrymal glands similar to NOD mice, but in the absence of autoimmune insulitis and diabetes. Despite the focal appearance of T cells in salivary and lachrymal tissues, NOD.Igμnull mice fail to lose secretory function as determined by stimulation of the muscarinic/cholinergic receptor by the agonist pilocarpine, suggesting a role for B cell autoantibodies in mediating exocrine dryness. Infusion of purified serum IgG or F(ab′)2 fragments from parental NOD mice or human primary Sjögren’s syndrome patients, but not serum IgG from healthy controls, alters stimulated saliva production, an observation consistent with antibody binding to neural receptors. Furthermore, human patient IgG fractions competitively inhibited the binding of the muscarinic receptor agonist, [3H]quinuclidinyl benzilate, to salivary gland membranes. This autoantibody activity is lost after preadsorption with intact salivary cells. These findings indicate that autoantibodies play an important part in the functional impairment of secretory processes seen in connection with the autoimmune exocrinopathy of Sjögren’s syndrome.

A model-based approach for assessing in vivo combination therapy interactions

We present an approach for evaluating the efficacy of combination antitumor agent schedules that accounts for order and timing of drug administration. Our model-based approach compares in vivo tumor volume data over a time course and offers a quantitative definition for additivity of drug effects, relative to which synergism and antagonism are interpreted. We begin by fitting data from individual mice receiving at most one drug to a differential equation tumor growth/drug effect model and combine individual parameter estimates to obtain population statistics. Using two null hypotheses: (i) combination therapy is consistent with additivity or (ii) combination therapy is equivalent to treating with the more effective single agent alone, we compute predicted tumor growth trajectories and their distribution for combination treated animals. We illustrate this approach by comparing entire observed and expected tumor volume trajectories for a data set in which HER-2/neu-overexpressing MCF-7 human breast cancer xenografts are treated with a humanized, anti-HER-2 monoclonal antibody (rhuMAb HER-2), doxorubicin, or one of five proposed combination therapy schedules.

Circadian rhythms in Neurospora crassa: Lipid deficiencies restore robust rhythmicity to null frequency and white-collar mutants

The conidiation rhythm in the fungus Neurospora crassa is a model system for investigating the genetics of circadian clocks. Null mutants at the frq (frequency) locus (frq9 and frq10) make no functional frq gene products and are arrhythmic under standard conditions. The white-collar strains (wc-1 and wc-2) are insensitive to most effects of light, and are also arrhythmic. All three genes are proposed to be central components of the circadian oscillator. We have been investigating two mutants, cel (chain-elongation) and chol-1 (choline-requirer), which are defective in lipid synthesis and affect the period and temperature compensation of the rhythm. We have constructed the double mutant strains chol-1 frq9, chol-1 frq10, chol-1 wc-1, chol-1 wc-2, cel frq9, cel frq10, and cel wc-2. We find that these double mutant strains are robustly rhythmic when assayed under lipid-deficient conditions, indicating that free-running rhythmicity does not require the frq, wc-1, or wc-2 gene products. The rhythms in the double mutant strains are similar to the cel and chol-1 parents, except that they are less sensitive to light. This suggests that the frq, wc-1, and wc-2 gene products may be components of a pathway that normally supplies input to a core oscillator to transduce light signals and sustain rhythmicity. This pathway can be bypassed when lipid metabolism is altered.

A genetic model provides evidence that the receptor for atrial natriuretic peptide (guanylyl cyclase-A) inhibits cardiac ventricular myocyte hypertrophy

Guanylyl cyclase-A (NPR-A; GC-A) is the major and possibly the only receptor for atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) or B-type natriuretic peptide. Although mice deficient in GC-A display an elevated blood pressure, the resultant cardiac hypertrophy is much greater than in other mouse models of hypertension. Here we overproduce GC-A in the cardiac myocytes of wild-type or GC-A null animals. Introduction of the GC-A transgene did not alter blood pressure or heart rate as a function of genotype. Cardiac myocyte size was larger (approximately 20%) in GC-A null than in wild-type animals. However, introduction of the GC-A transgene reduced cardiac myocyte size in both wild-type and null mice. Coincident with the reduction in myocyte size, both ANP mRNA and ANP content were significantly reduced by overexpression of GC-A, and this reduction was independent of genotype. This genetic model, therefore, separates a regulation of cardiac myocyte size by blood pressure from local regulation by a GC-mediated pathway.