Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model

The atmospheric response to the evolution of the global sea surface temperatures from 1979 to 1992 is studied using the Max-Planck-Institut 19 level atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM3 at T 42 resolution. Five separate 14-year integrations are performed and results are presented for each individual realization and for the ensemble-averaged response. The results are compared to a 30-year control integration using a climate monthly mean state of the sea surface temperatures and to analysis data. It is found that the ECHAM3 model, by and large, does reproduce the observed response pattern to El Nin˜o and La Nin˜a. During the El Nin˜ o events, the subtropical jet streams in both hemispheres are intensified and displaced equatorward, and there is a tendency towards weak upper easterlies over the equator. The Southern Oscillation is a very stable feature of the integrations and is accurately reproduced in all experiments. The inter-annual variability at middle- and high-latitudes, on the other hand, is strongly dominated by chaotic dynamics, and the tropical SST forcing only modulates the atmospheric circulation. The potential predictability of the model is investigated for six different regions. Signal to noise ratio is large in most parts of the tropical belt, of medium strength in the western hemisphere and generally small over the European area. The ENSO signal is most pronounced during the boreal spring. A particularly strong signal in the precipitation field in the extratropics during spring can be found over the southern United States. Western Canada is normally warmer during the warm ENSO phase, while northern Europe is warmer than normal during the ENSO cold phase. The reason is advection of warm air due to a more intense Pacific low than normal during the warm ENSO phase and a more intense Icelandic low than normal during the cold ENSO phase, respectively.

Implications of the North Atlantic Oscillation for a UK–Norway renewable power system

UK wind-power capacity is increasing and new transmission links are proposed with Norway, where hydropower dominates the electricity mix. Weather affects both these renewable resources and the demand for electricity. The dominant large-scale pattern of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric variability is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), associated with positive correlations in wind, temperature and precipitation over northern Europe. The NAO's effect on wind-power and demand in the UK and Norway is examined, focussing on March when Norwegian hydropower reserves are low and the combined power system might be most susceptible to atmospheric variations. The NCEP/NCAR meteorological reanalysis dataset (1948–2010) is used to drive simple models for demand and wind-power, and ‘demand-net-wind’ (DNW) is estimated for positive, neutral and negative NAO states. Cold, calm conditions in NAO− cause increased demand and decreased wind-power compared to other NAO states. Under a 2020 wind-power capacity scenario, the increase in DNW in NAO− relative to NAO neutral is equivalent to nearly 25% of the present-day average rate of March Norwegian hydropower usage. As the NAO varies on long timescales (months to decades), and there is potentially some skill in monthly predictions, we argue that it is important to understand its impact on European power systems.

Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing

An underestimate of atmospheric blocking occurrence is a well-known limitation of many climate models. This article presents an analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking in an atmospheric model with increased horizontal resolution. European blocking frequency increases with model resolution, and this results from an improvement in the atmospheric patterns of variability as well as a simple improvement in the mean state. There is some evidence that the transient eddy momentum forcing of European blocks is increased at high resolution, which could account for this. However, it is also shown that the increase in resolution of the orography is needed to realise the improvement in blocking, consistent with the increase in height of the Rocky Mountains acting to increase the tilt of the Atlantic jet stream and giving higher mean geopotential heights over northern Europe. Blocking frequencies in the Pacific sector are also increased with atmospheric resolution, but in this case the improvement in orography actually leads to a decrease in blocking

The extreme European summer 2012

The European summer of 2012 was marked by strongly contrasting rainfall anomalies, which led to flooding in northern Europe and droughts and wildfires in southern Europe. This season was not an isolated event, rather the latest in a string of summers characterized by a southward shifted Atlantic storm track as described by the negative phase of the SNAO. The degree of decadal variability in these features suggests a role for forcing from outside the dynamical atmosphere, and preliminary numerical experiments suggest that the global SST and low Arctic sea ice extent anomalies are likely to have played a role and that warm North Atlantic SSTs were a particular contributing factor. The direct effects of changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are not included in these experiments, but both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability may have influenced the SST and sea ice changes.

Biała Góra: the forgotten colony in the Medieval Pomeranian-Prussian borderlands

Biała Góra 3 is a small settlement founded in the late twelfth or early thirteenth century AD in the disputed Christian borderlands of Northern Europe. The incorporation of Pomerania into the Polish state in the tenth century was followed by a process of colonisation across the lower Vistula valley, which then stalled before resuming in the thirteenth century under the Teutonic Order. Biała Góra 3 is unusual in falling between the two expansionist phases and provides detailed insight into the ethnicity and economy of this borderland community. Pottery and metalwork show strong links with both Pomeranian and German colonists, and caches of bricks and roof tiles indicate durable buildings of the kind associated with the monastic and military orders. Evidence for the presence of merchants suggests Biała Góra 3 was one of many outposts in the commercial network that shadowed the Crusades.

Horizontal and vertical structure of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud over the UK: a comparison of airborne lidar observations and simulations

During April and May 2010 the ash cloud from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull caused widespread disruption to aviation over northern Europe. The location and impact of the eruption led to a wealth of observations of the ash cloud were being obtained which can be used to assess modelling of the long range transport of ash in the troposphere. The UK FAAM (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) BAe-146-301 research aircraft overflew the ash cloud on a number of days during May. The aircraft carries a downward looking lidar which detected the ash layer through the backscatter of the laser light. In this study ash concentrations derived from the lidar are compared with simulations of the ash cloud made with NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment), a general purpose atmospheric transport and dispersion model. The simulated ash clouds are compared to the lidar data to determine how well NAME simulates the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash clouds. Comparison between the ash concentrations derived from the lidar and those from NAME is used to define the fraction of ash emitted in the eruption that is transported over long distances compared to the total emission of tephra. In making these comparisons possible position errors in the simulated ash clouds are identified and accounted for. The ash layers seen by the lidar considered in this study were thin, with typical depths of 550–750 m. The vertical structure of the ash cloud simulated by NAME was generally consistent with the observed ash layers, although the layers in the simulated ash clouds that are identified with observed ash layers are about twice the depth of the observed layers. The structure of the simulated ash clouds were sensitive to the profile of ash emissions that was assumed. In terms of horizontal and vertical structure the best results were obtained by assuming that the emission occurred at the top of the eruption plume, consistent with the observed structure of eruption plumes. However, early in the period when the intensity of the eruption was low, assuming that the emission of ash was uniform with height gives better guidance on the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash cloud. Comparison of the lidar concentrations with those from NAME show that 2–5% of the total mass erupted by the volcano remained in the ash cloud over the United Kingdom.

Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

Organic soils promote the efficacy of entomopathogenic nematodes, with different foraging strategies, in the control of a major forest pest: a meta-analysis of field trial data

The large pine weevil, Hylobius abietis, is a serious pest of reforestation in northern Europe. However, weevils developing in stumps of felled trees can be killed by entomopathogenic nematodes applied to soil around the stumps and this method of control has been used at an operational level in the UK and Ireland. We investigated the factors affecting the efficacy of entomopathogenic nematodes in the control of the large pine weevil spanning 10 years of field experiments, by means of a meta-analysis of published studies and previously unpublished data. We investigated two species with different foraging strategies, the ‘ambusher’ Steinernema carpocapsae, the species most often used at an operational level, and the ‘cruiser’ Heterorhabditis downesi. Efficacy was measured both by percentage reduction in numbers of adults emerging relative to untreated controls and by percentage parasitism of developing weevils in the stump. Both measures were significantly higher with H. downesi compared to S. carpocapsae. General linear models were constructed for each nematode species separately, using substrate type (peat versus mineral soil) and tree species (pine versus spruce) as fixed factors, weevil abundance (from the mean of untreated stumps) as a covariate and percentage reduction or percentage parasitism as the response variable. For both nematode species, the most significant and parsimonious models showed that substrate type was consistently, but not always, the most significant variable, whether replicates were at a site or stump level, and that peaty soils significantly promote the efficacy of both species. Efficacy, in terms of percentage parasitism, was not density dependent.

Technology, ritual and Anglo-Saxon agrarian production: the biography of a seventh-century century plough coulter from Lyminge, Kent

The discovery of an unusual early medieval plough coulter in a well-dated Anglo-Saxon settlement context in Kent suggests that continentally derived technology was in use in this powerful kingdom centuries before heavy ploughs were first depicted in Late Saxon manuscripts. The substantial investment required to manufacture the coulter, the significant damage and wear that it sustained during use and the circumstances of its ultimate ritual deposition are explored. Investigative conservation, high-resolution recording and metallographic analysis illuminate the form, function and use-life of the coulter. An examination of the deposition contexts of plough-irons in early medieval northern Europe sheds important new light on the ritual actions of plough symbolism in an age of religious hybridity and transformation.

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: stratospheric and global circulation changes

It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme ‘Maunder Minimum like’ grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference RCP8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (~1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.4 K. The impact on global mean near-surface temperature is small (~−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern hemisphere (NH) winter-time, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ~3-4 m s1, with the largest changes occurring in January-February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian low at the surface and an increase in blocking over northern Europe and the north Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern hemisphere (SH) midlatitude eddy-driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top-down pathway for solar-climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200–320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.

Observed anomalous atmospheric patterns in summers of unusual Arctic sea ice melt

The Arctic sea ice retreat has accelerated over the last decade. The negative trend is largest in summer, but substantial interannual variability still remains. Here we explore observed atmospheric conditions and feedback mechanisms during summer months of anomalous sea ice melt in the Arctic. Compositing months of anomalous low and high sea ice melt over 1979–2013, we find distinct patterns in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, radiation, and temperature. Compared to summer months of anomalous low sea ice melt, high melt months are characterized by anomalous high sea level pressure in the Arctic (up to 7 hPa), with a corresponding tendency of storms to track on a more zonal path. As a result, the Arctic receives less precipitation overall and 39% less snowfall. This lowers the albedo of the region and reduces the negative feedback the snowfall provides for the sea ice. With an anticyclonic tendency, 12 W/m2 more incoming shortwave radiation reaches the surface in the start of the season. The melting sea ice in turn promotes cloud development in the marginal ice zones and enhances downwelling longwave radiation at the surface toward the end of the season. A positive cloud feedback emerges. In midlatitudes, the more zonally tracking cyclones give stormier, cloudier, wetter, and cooler summers in most of northern Europe and around the Sea of Okhotsk. Farther south, the region from the Mediterranean Sea to East Asia experiences significant surface warming (up to 2.4◦C), possibly linked to changes in the jet stream.

The Spanish Guerrilla 1808-1814 as a model for people’s wars and resistance movements

Transforming the meaning of the term 'guerrilla' which had once meant feud or private warfare, and then irregular war conducted by special forces on behalf of a state or government, the Spanish Guerrilla (part of the Peninsular War) against Napoleon became the model to be emulated by insurgency movements across the world. Even though the term itself continued to be used, even in Spanish, for special operations, in henceforth became imbued with an ideological dimension, which is how it would be used especially in the 20th century.

Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere.

Sothönans ( Fulica atra ) miljökrav vid häckning i utbredningsområdets randzon

In Sweden you will find the coot chiefly in the southern parts. The species winters in the southern part of the Baltic Sea and along the coasts of northern Europe. The number of coots is heavily decreased by harsh winters. The population of the coots in Sweden is estimated to 20 000 to 30 000 pairs. The region of Dalarna is the random zone for the breeding of coots in Sweden . During the summer of 2006 the coot was reported to reproduce in at least 31 lakes and rivers preferably in the southern part of the Dalarna region. From Lake Brunnsjön at least 50 pairs of coots were reported. Lake Brunnsjön is by far the most nutrient rich lake in Dalarna.From the three lakes that are included in the study, namely Lake Glistjärn, Lake Limsjön and Lake Kyrkbytjärn, the water analysis shows high pH values, well-buffered waters and meso- trophic waters.The number of successful breedings was eleven. Lake Glistjärn zero breeding, Lake Limsjön four and Lake Kyrkbytjärn seven breedings. The northernmost lake in Dalarna where breeding occurred is Lake Limsjön.

Lindex - vägen till en tydligare logotyp

Lindex has a strong fashion position and is one of northern Europe's leading fashion retailers. Unfortunately their logotype no longer measures up to the fashion level that is required. Surveys and interviews have been conducted with employees at Lindex, disscusing their logotype. I have come to the conclusion that what is needed from Lindex side is strict guidlines for the employees to follow so that all information from Lindex to their customers is made with a great touch of fashion to it and in a coherent way.