Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.

Linear and non-linear (non-)forecastability of high-frequency exchange rates

This paper forecasts Daily Sterling exchange rate returns using various naive, linear and non-linear univariate time-series models. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using mean squared error and sign prediction criteria. These show only a very modest improvement over forecasts generated by a random walk model. The Pesaran–Timmerman test and a comparison with forecasts generated artificially shows that even the best models have no evidence of market timing ability.

Fractional order and non-linear system identification algorithms for biomedical applications

We discuss the modelling of dielectric responses of amorphous biological samples. Such samples are commonly encountered in impedance spectroscopy studies as well as in UV, IR, optical and THz transient spectroscopy experiments and in pump-probe studies. In many occasions, the samples may display quenched absorption bands. A systems identification framework may be developed to provide parsimonious representations of such responses. To achieve this, it is appropriate to augment the standard models found in the identification literature to incorporate fractional order dynamics. Extensions of models using the forward shift operator, state space models as well as their non-linear Hammerstein-Wiener counterpart models are highlighted. We also discuss the need to extend the theory of electromagnetically excited networks which can account for fractional order behaviour in the non-linear regime by incorporating nonlinear elements to account for the observed non-linearities. The proposed approach leads to the development of a range of new chemometrics tools for biomedical data analysis and classification.

Measuring time series predictability using support vector regression

Most studies involving statistical time series analysis rely on assumptions of linearity, which by its simplicity facilitates parameter interpretation and estimation. However, the linearity assumption may be too restrictive for many practical applications. The implementation of nonlinear models in time series analysis involves the estimation of a large set of parameters, frequently leading to overfitting problems. In this article, a predictability coefficient is estimated using a combination of nonlinear autoregressive models and the use of support vector regression in this model is explored. We illustrate the usefulness and interpretability of results by using electroencephalographic records of an epileptic patient.

On the optimality of the Friedman Rule with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxation

We study the optimal “inflation tax” in an environment with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxes. We first derive the general conditions needed for the optimality of the Friedman rule in this setup. These general conditions are distinct in nature and more easily interpretable than those obtained in the literature with a representative agent and linear taxation. We then study two standard monetary specifications and derive their implications for the optimality of the Friedman rule. For the shopping-time model the Friedman rule is optimal with essentially no restrictions on preferences or transaction technologies. For the cash-credit model the Friedman rule is optimal if preferences are separable between the consumption goods and leisure, or if leisure shifts consumption towards the credit good. We also study a generalized model which nests both models as special cases.

A comparison of test of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We evaluate the forecasting performance of a number of systems models of US shortand long-term interest rates. Non-linearities, induding asymmetries in the adjustment to equilibrium, are shown to result in more accurate short horizon forecasts. We find that both long and short rates respond to disequilibria in the spread in certain circumstances, which would not be evident from linear representations or from single-equation analyses of the short-term interest rate.

Comparison of non-linear growth models to describe the growth curve in West African Dwarf sheep

The objectives of this study were to compare the goodness of fit of four non-linear growth models, i.e. Brody, Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy, in West African Dwarf (WAD) sheep. A total of 5274 monthly weight records from birth up to 180 days of age from 889 lambs, collected during 2001 to 2004 in Betecoucou breeding farm in Benin were used. In the preliminary analysis, the General Linear Model Procedure of the Statistical Analysis Systems Institute was applied to the dataset to identify the significant effects of the sex of lamb (male and female), type of birth (single and twin), season of birth (rainy season and dry season), parity of dam (1, 2 and 3) and year of birth (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004) on the observed birth weight and monthly weight up to 6 months of age. The models parameters (A, B and k), coefficient of determination (112), mean square error (MSE) were calculated using language of technical computing package Matlab(R), 2006. The mean values of A, B and k were substituted into each model to calculate the corresponding Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Among the four growth functions, the Brody model has been selected for its accuracy of fit according to the higher R(2), lower MSE and A/C Finally, the parameters A, B and k were adjusted in Matlab(R) 2006 for the sex of lamb, year of birth, season of birth, birth type and the parity of ewe, providing a specific slope of the Brody growth curve. The results of this study suggest that Brody model can be useful for WAD sheep breeding in Betecoucou farm conditions through growth monitoring.

Reactive power dispatch and planning using a non-linear branch-and-bound algorithm

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

On the performance of a dual-mode non-linear vibration energy harvesting device

The research trend for harvesting energy from the ambient vibration sources has moved from using a linear resonant generator to a non-linear generator in order to improve on the performance of a linear generator; for example, the relatively small bandwidth, intolerance to mistune and the suitability of the device for low-frequency applications. This article presents experimental results to illustrate the dynamic behaviour of a dual-mode non-linear energy-harvesting device operating in hardening and bi-stable modes under harmonic excitation. The device is able to change from one mode to another by altering the negative magnetic stiffness by adjusting the separation gap between the magnets and the iron core. Results for the device operating in both modes are presented. They show that there is a larger bandwidth for the device operating in the hardening mode compared to the equivalent linear device. However, the maximum power transfer theory is less applicable for the hardening mode due to occurrence of the maximum power at different frequencies, which depends on the non-linearity and the damping in the system. The results for the bi-stable mode show that the device is insensitive to a range of excitation frequencies depending upon the input level, damping and non-linearity.

Thermodynamic analysis of a non linear lattice

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Lorentz symmetry breaking and planar effects from non-linear electrodynamics

We propose a modification of standard linear electrodynamics in four dimensions, where effective non-trivial interactions of the electromagnetic field with itself and with matter fields induce Lorentz violating Chern-Simons terms. This yields two consequences: it provides a more realistic and general scenario for the breakdown of Lorentz symmetry in electromagnetism and it may explain the effective behavior of the electromagnetic field in certain planar phenomena (for instance, Hall effect). A number of proposals for non-linear electrodynamics is discussed along the paper. Important physical implications of the breaking of Lorentz symmetry, such as optical birefringence and the possibility of having conductance in the vacuum are commented on.

On local analysis of oscillations of a non-ideal and non-linear mechanical model

It is of major importance to consider non-ideal energy sources in engineering problems. They act on an oscillating system and at the same time experience a reciprocal action from the system. Here, a non-ideal system is studied. In this system, the interaction between source energy and motion is accomplished through a special kind of friction. Results about the stability and instability of the equilibrium point of this system are obtained. Moreover, its bifurcation curves are determined. Hopf bifurcations are found in the set of parameters of the oscillating system.

On non-linear dynamics and control designs applied to the ideal and non-ideal variants of the Fitzhugh-Nagumo (FN) mathematical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Non-linear dynamics of a tower orchard sprayer based on an inverted pendulum model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)