Measuring risk and blameworthiness in the sentencing of criminal defendants : an exploratory study in Western Australia's Higher Courts

The focal concern perspective dominates quantitative explorations of judicial sentencing. A critical argument underlying this perspective is the role of judicial assessments of risk and blameworthiness. Prior research has not generally explored how these two concepts fit together. This study provides an empirical test of the focal concerns perspective by examining the latent structure among the measures traditionally used in sentencing research, and investigates the extent to which focal concerns can be applied in a non-US jurisdiction. Using factor analysis (as suggested by prior research), we find evidence of distinct factors of risk and blameworthiness, with separate and independent effects on sentencing outcomes. We also identify the need for further development of the focal concerns perspective, especially around the role of perceptual shorthand.

Identification of area-level influences on regions of high cancer incidence in Queensland, Australia : a classification tree approach

Background: Strategies for cancer reduction and management are targeted at both individual and area levels. Area-level strategies require careful understanding of geographic differences in cancer incidence, in particular the association with factors such as socioeconomic status, ethnicity and accessibility. This study aimed to identify the complex interplay of area-level factors associated with high area-specific incidence of Australian priority cancers using a classification and regression tree (CART) approach. Methods: Area-specific smoothed standardised incidence ratios were estimated for priority-area cancers across 478 statistical local areas in Queensland, Australia (1998-2007, n=186,075). For those cancers with significant spatial variation, CART models were used to identify whether area-level accessibility, socioeconomic status and ethnicity were associated with high area-specific incidence. Results: The accessibility of a person’s residence had the most consistent association with the risk of cancer diagnosis across the specific cancers. Many cancers were likely to have high incidence in more urban areas, although male lung cancer and cervical cancer tended to have high incidence in more remote areas. The impact of socioeconomic status and ethnicity on these associations differed by type of cancer. Conclusions: These results highlight the complex interactions between accessibility, socioeconomic status and ethnicity in determining cancer incidence risk.

Cyclists' experiences of harassment from motorists : findings from a survey of cyclists in Queensland, Australia

Objective Harassment from motorists is a major constraint on cycling that has been under-researched. We examined incidence and correlates of harassment of cyclists. Methods Cyclists in Queensland, Australia were surveyed in 2009 about their experiences of harassment while cycling, from motor vehicle occupants. Respondents also indicated the forms of harassment they experienced. Logistic regression modeling was used to examine gender and other correlates of harassment. Results Of 1830 respondents, 76% of men and 72% of women reported harassment in the previous 12 months. The most reported forms of harassment were driving too close (66%), shouting abuse (63%), and making obscene gestures/sexual harassment (45%). Older age, overweight/obesity, less cycling experience (< 2 years) and less frequent cycling (< 3 days/week) were associated with less likelihood of harassment, while living in highly advantaged areas (SEIFA deciles 8 or 9), cycling for recreation, and cycling for competition were associated with increased likelihood of harassment. Gender was not associated with reports of harassment. Conclusions Efforts to decrease harassment should include a closer examination of the circumstances that give rise to harassment, as well as fostering road environments and driver attitudes and behaviors that recognize that cyclists are legitimate road users.

The role of institutional rural property in diversified investment portfolios in NSW, Australia

The food and fuel crisis experienced in 2006 to 2008 has highlighted the importance of agricultural commodity production throughout developing and developed economies and has placed greater awareness and importance on rural property and rural property markets. These factors have led to an increased interest from major property investment institutions and property companies in the role of rural property in a mixed asset or mixed property investment portfolio. This paper will analyse rural property sales in New South Wales for the period 1990-2008, and will compare total return performance across a number of rural property sectors based on geographic location and land use type. These results show that the inclusion of rural property in an investment portfolio has benefits in relation to return and risk.

The effects of the 2009 dust storm on emergency admissions to a hospital in Brisbane, Australia

In September 2009 an enormous dust storm swept across eastern Australia. Dust is potentially hazardous to health as it interferes with breathing, and previous dust storms have been linked to increased risks of asthma and even death. We examined whether the 2009 Australian dust storm changed the volume or characteristics of emergency admissions to hospital. We used an observational study design, using time series analyses to examine changes in the number of admissions, and case-only analyses to examine changes in the characteristics of admissions. The admission data were from the Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, between 1 January 2009 and 31 October 2009. There was a 39% increase in emergency admissions associated with the storm (95% confidence interval: 5, 81%), which lasted for just one day. The health effects of the storm could not be detected using particulate matter levels. We found no significant change in the characteristics of admissions during the storm, specifically there was no increase in respiratory admissions. The dust storm had a short-lived impact on emergency hospital admissions. This may be because the public took effective avoidance measures, or because the dust was simply not toxic, being mainly composed of soil. Emergency departments should be prepared for a short-term increase in admissions during dust storms.

An assessment of development funding for new housing post GFC in Queensland, Australia

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify changes in bank lending criteria due to the GFC and to explore the associated impacts on new housing supply in Queensland, Australia. Design/methodology/approach: This research involves a survey of each of Australia’s big four banks, as well as two prominent arrangers of development finance. Data on key lending criteria was collected: Pre GFC, during the GFC, and GFC recovery stage. Findings: The GFC has resulted in a retraction of funds available for residential development. The few institutions lending are filtering out only the best credit risks by way of constrictive loan covenants including: low loan to value ratios, high cash equity requirements, regional “no go” zones, and demonstrated borrower track record. The ability of developers to proceed with new housing developments is being constrained by their inability to obtain sufficient finance. Research limitations/implications: This research uses survey data, together with an understanding of the project finance process to extrapolate impacts on the residential development industry across Queensland. No regional or sub-market analysis is included. Future research will include subsequent surveys to track any loosening of credit policies over time and sub-market sector analysis. Practical implications: The inability to obtain project finance is identified as a key constraint to new housing supply. This research will inform policy makers and provide important quantitative evidence of the importance of availability of development finance in the housing supply chain. Social implications: Queensland is facing a supply shortfall, which if not corrected, may lead to upward pressure on house prices and falling housing affordability. Originality/value: There is very little academic research on development funding. This research is unique in linking bank lending criteria to new housing supply and demonstrating the impact on the development industry.

Transportation behaviours of older adults : an investigation into car dependency in urban Australia

Aim: Increased car dependency amongst Australia's ageing population may result in increased social isolation and other health impacts associated with the cessation of driving. While public transport represents an alternative to car usage, patronage remains low amongst senior cohorts. This study investigates the facilitators and barriers to public transport patronage and the nature of car dependence among older Australians. Method: Data was gathered from a sample of 24 adults (mean = 70.33 years) through a combination of quantitative (remote behavioural observation) and qualitative (interviews) investigation. Results: Findings suggest factors of relative convenience, affordability and health/mobility dictate choices of transport mode. The car is considered more convenient for the majority of suburban trips irrespective of the availability of public transport. Conclusion: Policy attention should focus on providing better education and information regarding driving cessation and addressing aged-specific social aspects of public transport including the accommodation of various health and mobility issues.

The influence of ambient temperature on birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia

Lately, there has been increasing interest in the association between temperature and adverse birth outcomes including preterm birth (PTB) and stillbirth. PTB is a major predictor of many diseases later in life, and stillbirth is a devastating event for parents and families. The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal pattern of adverse birth outcomes, and to examine possible associations of maternal exposure to temperature with PTB and stillbirth. We also aimed to identify if there were any periods of the pregnancy where exposure to temperature was particularly harmful. A retrospective cohort study design was used and we retrieved individual birth records from the Queensland Health Perinatal Data Collection Unit for all singleton births (excluding twins and triplets) delivered in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009. We obtained weather data (including hourly relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature) and air-pollution data (including PM10, SO2 and O3) from the Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management. We used survival analyses with the time-dependent variables of temperature, humidity and air pollution, and the competing risks of stillbirth and live birth. To assess the monthly pattern of the birth outcomes, we fitted month of pregnancy as a time-dependent variable. We examined the seasonal pattern of the birth outcomes and the relationship between exposure to high or low temperatures and birth outcomes over the four lag weeks before birth. We further stratified by categorisation of PTB: extreme PTB (< 28 weeks of gestation), PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation), and term birth (≥ 37 weeks of gestation). Lastly, we examined the effect of temperature variation in each week of the pregnancy on birth outcomes. There was a bimodal seasonal pattern in gestation length. After adjusting for temperature, the seasonal pattern changed from bimodal, to only one peak in winter. The risk of stillbirth was statistically significant lower in March compared with January. After adjusting for temperature, the March trough was still statistically significant and there was a peak in risk (not statistically significant) in winter. There was an acute effect of temperature on gestational age and stillbirth with a shortened gestation for increasing temperature from 15 °C to 25 °C over the last four weeks before birth. For stillbirth, we found an increasing risk with increasing temperatures from 12 °C to approximately 20 °C, and no change in risk at temperatures above 20 °C. Certain periods of the pregnancy were more vulnerable to temperature variation. The risk of PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation) increased as temperatures increased above 21 °C. For stillbirth, the fetus was most vulnerable at less than 28 weeks of gestation, but there were also effects in 28–36 weeks of gestation. For fetuses of more than 37 weeks of gestation, increasing temperatures did not increase the risk of stillbirth. We did not find any adverse affects of cold temperature on birth outcomes in this cohort. My findings contribute to knowledge of the relationship between temperature and birth outcomes. In the context of climate change, this is particularly important. The results may have implications for public health policy and planning, as they indicate that pregnant women would decrease their risk of adverse birth outcomes by avoiding exposure to high temperatures and seeking cool environments during hot days.

Controls on iron in soils and soil waters of a forested, coastal catchment in subtropical Australia

Soluble organic matter derived from exotic Pinus vegetation forms stronger complexes with iron (Fe) than the soluble organic matter derived from most native Australian species. This has lead to concern about the environmental impacts related to the establishment of extensive exotic Pinus plantations in coastal southeast Queensland, Australia. It has been suggested that the Pinus plantations may enhance the solubility of Fe in soils by increasing the amount of organically complexed Fe. While this remains inconclusive, the environmental impacts of an increased flux of dissolved, organically complexed Fe from soils to the fluvial system and then to sensitive coastal ecosystems are potentially damaging. Previous work investigated a small number of samples, was largely laboratory based and had limited application to field conditions. These assessments lacked field-based studies, including the comparison of the soil water chemistry of sites associated with Pinus vegetation and undisturbed native vegetation. In addition, the main controls on the distribution and mobilisation of Fe in soils of this subtropical coastal region have not been determined. This information is required in order to better understand the relative significance of any Pinus enhanced solubility of Fe. The main aim of this thesis is to determine the controls on Fe distribution and mobilisation in soils and soil waters of a representative coastal catchment in southeast Queensland (Poona Creek catchment, Fraser Coast) and to test the effect of Pinus vegetation on the solubility and speciation of Fe. The thesis is structured around three individual papers. The first paper identifies the main processes responsible for the distribution and mobilisation of labile Fe in the study area and takes a catchment scale approach. Physicochemical attributes of 120 soil samples distributed throughout the catchment are analysed, and a new multivariate data analysis approach (Kohonen’s self organising maps) is used to identify the conditions associated with high labile Fe. The second paper establishes whether Fe nodules play a major role as an iron source in the catchment, by determining the genetic mechanism responsible for their formation. The nodules are a major pool of Fe in much of the region and previous studies have implied that they may be involved in redox-controlled mobilisation and redistribution of Fe. This is achieved by combining a detailed study of a ferric soil profile (morphology, mineralogy and micromorphology) with the distribution of Fe nodules on a catchment scale. The third component of the thesis tests whether the concentration and speciation of Fe in soil solutions from Pinus plantations differs significantly from native vegetation soil solutions. Microlysimeters are employed to collect unaltered, in situ soil water samples. The redox speciation of Fe is determined spectrophotometrically and the interaction between Fe and dissolved organic matter (DOM) is modelled with the Stockholm Humic Model. The thesis provides a better understanding of the controls on the distribution, concentration and speciation of Fe in the soils and soil waters of southeast Queensland. Reductive dissolution is the main mechanism by which mobilisation of Fe occurs in the study area. Labile Fe concentrations are low overall, particularly in the sandy soils of the coastal plain. However, high labile Fe is common in seasonally waterlogged and clay-rich soils which are exposed to fluctuating redox conditions and in organic-rich soils adjacent to streams. Clay-rich soils are most common in the upper parts of the catchment. Fe nodules were shown to have a negligible role in the redistribution of dissolved iron in the catchment. They are formed by the erosion, colluvial transport and chemical weathering of iron-rich sandstones. The ferric horizons, in which nodules are commonly concentrated, subsequently form through differential biological mixing of the soil. Whereas dissolution/ reprecipitation of the Fe cements is an important component of nodule formation, mobilised Fe reprecipitates locally. Dissolved Fe in the soil waters is almost entirely in the ferrous form. Vegetation type does not affect the concentration and speciation of Fe in soil waters, although Pinus DOM has greater acidic functional group site densities than DOM from native vegetation. Iron concentrations are highest in the high DOM soil waters collected from sandy podosols, where they are controlled by redox potential. Iron concentrations are low in soil solutions from clay and iron oxide rich soils, in spite of similar redox potentials. This is related to stronger sorption to the reactive clay and iron oxide mineral surfaces in these soils, which reduces the amount of DOM available for microbial metabolisation and reductive dissolution of Fe. Modelling suggests that Pinus DOM can significantly increase the amount of truly dissolved ferric iron remaining in solution in oxidising conditions. Thus, inputs of ferrous iron together with Pinus DOM to surface waters may reduce precipitation of hydrous ferric oxides and increase the flux of dissolved iron out of the catchment. Such inputs are most likely from the lower catchment, where podosols planted with Pinus are most widely distributed. Significant outcomes other than the main aims were also achieved. It is shown that mobilisation of Fe in podosols can occur as dissolved Fe(II) rather than as Fe(III)-organic complexes. This has implications for the large body of work which assumes that Fe(II) plays a minor role. Also, the first paper demonstrates that a data analysis approach based on Kohonen’s self organising maps can facilitate the interpretation of complex datasets and can help identify geochemical processes operating on a catchment scale.