Beurteilung der Fischbestände in Nordatlantik, Nord- und Ostsee. Einschätzung durch den Internationalen Rat für Meeresforschung vom Mai 1999

The spring session of ACFM gave advice for a number of stocks in the North Atlantic, North Sea and Baltic. The situation is given here for stocks of higher importance for the German fishery. These are: Blue Whiting: A short term upwards trend is observed, which, however, will not last very long, due to too intense fishing. Cod in Kattegat: Stock is outside safe biological limits. No immediate recovery in sight. Cod in Sub. Div. 22– 24 (Baltic): Stock is outside safe biological limits. Due to weak recruitment not immediate recovery in prospect. Greenland Halibut: Stock outside safe biological limits and still in downward trend. Herring (atlanto-scandian, Norw. spring spawner): Stock inside safe biological limits, weak recruitment of the past 5 years will, however, lead to a reduction of the biomass. Redfish: Generally decreasing tendency observed, a reduction of the fishery is recommended.

Zustand der Herings- und Sprottenbestände in Nord- und Ostsee, östlichem Kanal und westlichen britischen Gewässern. Beurteilung durch die Herings- und Ostsee-Arbeitsgruppe des ICES, März/April 1999

Information is given about the results of the latest meeting of the Herring Assessment Working Group for the Area South of 62° N and the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group, which were conducted in March and April at ICES headquarters in Copenhagen. The actual stock development and the catch options estimated for different assessment units of herring and sprat are presented. The spawning stock size of North Sea herring reached in 1998 for the first time since 1991 a level above the Minimum Biological Acceptable Level (MBAL) of 800 000 t. Keeping the fishery at the present level the spawning stock size should reach in 1999 a level of about 1.2 mio. t. For the Western Baltic Spring spawning herring stock no actual stock estimate was presented. Due to uncertainties in splitting the catches in North Sea autumn and Baltic spring spawners no analytical assessment was accepted.

Earthquake geology of Myanmar

This thesis describes the active structures of Myanmar and its surrounding regions, and the earthquake geology of the major active structures. Such investigation is needed urgently for this rapidly developing country that has suffered from destructive earthquakes in its long history. To archive a better understanding of the regional active tectonics and the seismic potential in the future, we utilized a global digital elevation model and optical satellite imagery to describe geomorphologic evidence for the principal neotectonic features of the western half of the Southeast Asia mainland. Our investigation shows three distinct active structural systems that accommodate the oblique convergence between the Indian plate and Southeast Asia and the extrusion of Asian territory around the eastern syntaxis of the Himalayan mountain range. Each of these active deformation belts can be further separated into several neotectonic domains, in which structures show distinctive active behaviors from one to another.

In order to better understand the behaviors of active structures, we focused on the active characteristics of the right-lateral Sagaing fault and the oblique subducting northern Sunda megathrust in the second part of this thesis. The detailed geomorphic investigations along these two major plate-interface faults revealed the recent slip behavior of these structures, and plausible recurrence intervals of major seismic events. We also documented the ground deformation of the 2011 Tarlay earthquake in remote eastern Myanmar from remote sensing datasets and post-earthquake field investigations. The field observation and the remote sensing measurements of surface ruptures of the Tarlay earthquake are the first study of this kind in the Myanmar region.

Three-dimensional nonlinear inelastic analysis of steel moment-frame buildings damaged by earthquake excitations

The Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994, highlighted the two previously known problems of premature fracturing of connections and the damaging capabilities of near-source ground motion pulses. Large ground motions had not been experienced in a city with tall steel moment-frame buildings before. Some steel buildings exhibited fracture of welded connections or other types of structural degradation.

A sophisticated three-dimensional nonlinear inelastic program is developed that can accurately model many nonlinear properties commonly ignored or approximated in other programs. The program can assess and predict severely inelastic response of steel buildings due to strong ground motions, including collapse.

Three-dimensional fiber and segment discretization of elements is presented in this work. This element and its two-dimensional counterpart are capable of modeling various geometric and material nonlinearities such as moment amplification, spread of plasticity and connection fracture. In addition to introducing a three-dimensional element discretization, this work presents three-dimensional constraints that limit the number of equations required to solve various three-dimensional problems consisting of intersecting planar frames.

Two buildings damaged in the Northridge earthquake are investigated to verify the ability of the program to match the level of response and the extent and location of damage measured. The program is used to predict response of larger near-source ground motions using the properties determined from the matched response.

A third building is studied to assess three-dimensional effects on a realistic irregular building in the inelastic range of response considering earthquake directivity. Damage levels are observed to be significantly affected by directivity and torsional response.

Several strong recorded ground motions clearly exceed code-based levels. Properly designed buildings can have drifts exceeding code specified levels due to these ground motions. The strongest ground motions caused collapse if fracture was included in the model. Near-source ground displacement pulses can cause columns to yield prior to weaker-designed beams. Damage in tall buildings correlates better with peak-to-peak displacements than with peak-to-peak accelerations.

Dynamic response of tall buildings shows that higher mode response can cause more damage than first mode response. Leaking of energy between modes in conjunction with damage can cause torsional behavior that is not anticipated.

Various response parameters are used for all three buildings to determine what correlations can be made for inelastic building response. Damage levels can be dramatically different based on the inelastic model used. Damage does not correlate well with several common response parameters.

Realistic modeling of material properties and structural behavior is of great value for understanding the performance of tall buildings due to earthquake excitations.

Nonstationary response of structures and its application to earthquake engineering

This thesis presents a simplified state-variable method to solve for the nonstationary response of linear MDOF systems subjected to a modulated stationary excitation in both time and frequency domains. The resulting covariance matrix and evolutionary spectral density matrix of the response may be expressed as a product of a constant system matrix and a time-dependent matrix, the latter can be explicitly evaluated for most envelopes currently prevailing in engineering. The stationary correlation matrix of the response may be found by taking the limit of the covariance response when a unit step envelope is used. The reliability analysis can then be performed based on the first two moments of the response obtained.

The method presented facilitates obtaining explicit solutions for general linear MDOF systems and is flexible enough to be applied to different stochastic models of excitation such as the stationary models, modulated stationary models, filtered stationary models, and filtered modulated stationary models and their stochastic equivalents including the random pulse train model, filtered shot noise, and some ARMA models in earthquake engineering. This approach may also be readily incorporated into finite element codes for random vibration analysis of linear structures.

A set of explicit solutions for the response of simple linear structures subjected to modulated white noise earthquake models with four different envelopes are presented as illustration. In addition, the method has been applied to three selected topics of interest in earthquake engineering, namely, nonstationary analysis of primary-secondary systems with classical or nonclassical dampings, soil layer response and related structural reliability analysis, and the effect of the vertical components on seismic performance of structures. For all the three cases, explicit solutions are obtained, dynamic characteristics of structures are investigated, and some suggestions are given for aseismic design of structures.

Earthquake response of steel braces and braced steel frames

This thesis consists of three parts. Chapter 2 deals with the dynamic buckling behavior of steel braces under cyclic axial end displacement. Braces under such a loading condition belong to a class of "acceleration magnifying" structural components, in which a small motion at the loading points can cause large internal acceleration and inertia. This member-level inertia is frequently ignored in current studies of braces and braced structures. This chapter shows that, under certain conditions, the inclusion of the member-level inertia can lead to brace behavior fundamentally different from that predicted by the quasi-static method. This result is to have significance in the correct use of the quasi-static, pseudo-dynamic and static condensation methods in the simulation of braces or braced structures under dynamic loading. The strain magnitude and distribution in the braces are also studied in this chapter.

Chapter 3 examines the effect of column uplift on the earthquake response of braced steel frames and explores the feasibility of flexible column-base anchoring. It is found that fully anchored braced-bay columns can induce extremely large internal forces in the braced-bay members and their connections, thus increasing the risk of failures observed in recent earthquakes. Flexible braced-bay column anchoring can significantly reduce the braced bay member force, but at the same time also introduces large story drift and column uplift. The pounding of an uplifting column with its support can result in very high compressive axial force.

Chapter 4 conducts a comparative study on the effectiveness of a proposed non-buckling bracing system and several conventional bracing systems. The non-buckling bracing system eliminates buckling and thus can be composed of small individual braces distributed widely in a structure to reduce bracing force concentration and increase redundancy. The elimination of buckling results in a significantly more effective bracing system compared with the conventional bracing systems. Among the conventional bracing systems, bracing configurations and end conditions for the bracing members affect the effectiveness.

The studies in Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 also indicate that code-designed conventionally braced steel frames can experience unacceptably severe response under the strong ground motions recorded during the recent Northridge and Kobe earthquakes.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Dynamic rupture simulation integrated with earthquake observations

Dynamic rupture simulations are unique in their contributions to the study of earthquake physics. The current rapid development of dynamic rupture simulations poses several new questions: Do the simulations reflect the real world? Do the simulations have predictive power? Which one should we believe when the simulations disagree? This thesis illustrates how integration with observations can help address these questions and reduce the effects of non-uniqueness of both dynamic rupture simulations and kinematic inversion problems. Dynamic rupture simulations with observational constraints can effectively identify non-physical features inferred from observations. Moreover, the integrative technique can also provide more physical insights into the mechanisms of earthquakes. This thesis demonstrates two examples of such kinds of integration: dynamic rupture simulations of the M_w 9.0 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and of earthquake ruptures in damaged fault zones:

(1) We develop simulations of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on a variety of observations and minimum assumptions of model parameters. The simulations provide realistic estimations of stress drop and fracture energy of the region and explain the physical mechanisms of high-frequency radiation in the deep region. We also find that the overridding subduction wedge contributes significantly to the up-dip rupture propagation and large final slip in the shallow region. Such findings are also applicable to other megathrust earthquakes.

(2) Damaged fault zones are usually found around natural faults, but their effects on earthquake ruptures have been largely unknown. We simulate earthquake ruptures in damaged fault zones with material properties constrained by seismic and geological observations. We show that reflected waves in fault zones are effective at generating pulse-like ruptures and head waves tend to accelerate and decelerate rupture speeds. These mechanisms are robust in natural fault zones with large attenuation and off-fault plasticity. Moreover, earthquakes in damaged fault zones can propagate at super-Rayleigh speeds that are unstable in homogeneous media. Supershear transitions in fault zones do not require large fault stresses. In the end, we present observations in the Big Bear region, where variability of rupture speeds of small earthquakes correlates with the laterally variable materials in a damaged fault zone.