Design and Emergence in the Making of American Grand Strategy

The main research question of this thesis is how do grand strategies form. Grand strategy is defined as a state's coherent and consistent pattern of behavior over a long period of time in search of an overarching goal. The political science literature usually explains the formation of grand strategies by using a planning (or design) model. In this dissertation, I use primary sources, interviews with former government officials, and historical scholarship to show that the formation of grand strategy is better understood using a model of emergent learning imported from the business world. My two case studies examine the formation of American grand strategy during the Cold War and the post-Cold War eras. The dissertation concludes that in both these strategic eras the dominating grand strategies were formed primarily by emergent learning rather than flowing from advanced designs.

China's Sovereign Wealth Funds: Problem or Panacea?

China’s impressive economic growth has led to the accumulation of massive financial assets. The emergence of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), as a governmental investment device for its excessive foreign reserves, symbolizes a major rebalancing of economic power. With its investment portfolios drastically diversified for well-established financial institutions as well as some strategic sectors, a seminal debate seems centered on whether China’s SWFs are in furtherance of purely commercial or geopolitically strategic purposes. Under the sophisticated hard laws associated with international initiatives, it is unlikely that the SWFs-related investment would distort the global financial system, and genuinely threaten national security, which assumption may only exist at a hypothetical level. The potential protectionism would inevitably retard the world economy’s recovery, were it not to be proportionately addressed. A most significant necessity appears to be to strike a proportionate balance between sustaining the credibility of open investment environment and efficiently minimizing implications of SWFs political arenas.

Overcoming the Scalability Challenges of Epidemic Simulations on Blue Waters

Modeling dynamical systems represents an important application class covering a wide range of disciplines including but not limited to biology, chemistry, finance, national security, and health care. Such applications typically involve large-scale, irregular graph processing, which makes them difficult to scale due to the evolutionary nature of their workload, irregular communication and load imbalance. EpiSimdemics is such an application simulating epidemic diffusion in extremely large and realistic social contact networks. It implements a graph-based system that captures dynamics among co-evolving entities. This paper presents an implementation of EpiSimdemics in Charm++ that enables future research by social, biological and computational scientists at unprecedented data and system scales. We present new methods for application-specific processing of graph data and demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods on a Cray XE6, specifically NCSA's Blue Waters system.

Distribution of Uranium and Thorium in Dolomitic Gravel Fill and Shale Saprolite

The objectives of this study were to examine (1) the distribution of U and Th in dolomitic gravel fill and shale saprolite, and (2) the removal of uranium from acidic groundwater by dolomitic gravel through precipitation with amorphous basaluminite at the U.S. DOE Oak Ridge Integrated Field Research Challenge (ORIFRC) field site west of the Oak Ridge Y-12 National Security Complex in East Tennessee. Media reactivity and sustainability are a technical concern with the deployment of any subsurface reactive media. Because the gravel was placed in the subsurface and exposed to contaminated groundwater for over 20 years, it provided a unique opportunity to study the solid and water phase geochemical conditions within the media after this length of exposure. This study illustrates that dolomite gravel can remove U from acidic contaminated groundwater with high levels of Al3+, Ca2+, NO3−, and SO42− over the long term. As the groundwater flows through high pH carbonate gravel, U containing amorphous basaluminite precipitates as the pH increases. This is due to an increase in groundwater pH from 3.2 to ∼6.5 as it comes in contact with the gravel. Therefore, carbonate gravel could be considered as a possible treatment medium for removal and sequestration of U and other pH sensitive metals from acidic contaminated groundwater. Thorium concentrations are also high in the carbonate gravel. Thorium generally shows an inverse relationship with U from the surface down into the deeper saprolite. Barite precipitated in the shallow saprolite directly below the dolomitic gravel from barium present in the acidic contaminated groundwater.

The Climate of War: Violence, Warfare and Climatic Reductionism

National security agencies and other interested parties now often regard conflict as the inevitable consequence of climate change. This inclination to reduce war to the vicissitudes of climate is not new however. Here I examine some of the earlier ways in which violence was attributed to climatic conditions, particularly in the United States, and trace links between these older advocates of climatic determinism and the recent writings of those insisting that climate change will usher in a grim world of chronic warfare. It ends by drawing attention to the writings of some critics who are troubled by the ease with which climatic reductionism is capturing the public imagination.

Civil defence pedagogies and narratives of democracy: disaster education in Germany

‘Disaster education’ is a fledgling area of study in lifelong education. Many countries educate their populations for disasters, to mitigate potential damage and loss of life, as well as contribute to national security. In this paper, which draws on interview data from the German Federal Office for Civil Defence and Disaster Assistance and the Federal Agency for Technical Relief, archival research, analysis of websites and promotional materials as well as relevant academic literature, I examine disaster education and preparedness for national emergencies in Germany. I argue that it is not generally extended to the general public, rather confined to trained experts, decentralised, localised and exclusive. Theorising disaster education as a ‘civil defence pedagogy’ (Preston, 2008), a type of public pedagogy, which contributes to shaping narratives of national identity, I argue that it is unlikely that Germany will develop a more inclusive, universal, formalised, nor high-profile campaign in disaster education in the foreseeable future. This, I suggest, is due to narratives of the German democratic nation state as secure, federal, peaceful and unified, which originated at the founding of West Germany in 1949, and continue to shape contemporary political narratives.

Congressional acquiescence to presidentialism in the US ‘War on Terror’

Congressional dominance theory holds that not only can the US Congress control the executive, it does. The terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on 11 September 2001 and the Bush administration's ensuing global 'war on terror' suggest a different result. Bush's response to 9/11 signalled not only new directions in US foreign and domestic policy but a new stage in the aggrandisement of presidential power in the United States and a further step in the marginalisation of the Congress. Informed by a constitutional doctrine unknown to the framers of the US Constitution, the Bush administration pursued a presidentialist or 'ultra-separationist' governing strategy that was disrespectful to the legislature's intended role in the separated system. Using its unilateral powers, in public and in secret, claiming 'inherent' authority from the Constitution, and exploiting the public's fear of a further terrorist attack and of endangering the lives of US troops abroad, the administration skilfully drove its legislation through the Congress. Occasionally, the Congress was able to extract concessions - notably in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, when partisan control of the government was split - but more typically, for most of the period, the Congress acquiesced to administration demands, albeit with the consolation of minor concessions. The administration not only dominated the lawmaking process, it also cowed legislators into legitimating often highly controversial (and sometimes illegal) administration-determined definitions of counter-terrorism and national security policy. Certainly, the Congress undertook a considerable amount of oversight during the period of the 'war on terror'; lawmakers also complained. But the effects on policy were marginal. This finding held true for periods of Democratic as well as Republican majorities.

The 'emotionalization of the 'war on terror'': counter-terrorism, fear, risk, insecurity and helplessness

The ‘war on terror’ has marked the existence of exceptional measures involving military action abroad and the introduction of counter-terrorism legislation in the United Kingdom. Within this context fear, risk and insecurity have been intrinsic in legitimizing the measures created as being necessary to maintain national security. This article presents the findings from a study investigating the impact of the ‘war on terror’ on British Muslims’ emotions. The study revealed how facets of the ‘war on terror’, including ‘human rights and policing’, ‘What if? and pre-emption’, ‘geopolitics and reflexive fear and risk’ and ‘fear from inside the binary’ impacted participants’ emotions. Through exploring how thepolicy measures implemented in the ‘war on terror’ have influenced British Muslims’ emotions, the article takes a small step in addressing the analytical gap in criminological research on emotions in the ‘war on terror’.

A segurança das infraestruturas críticas em Portugal

Portugal, having responsibilities at European level, needs to ensure compliance with European standards, particularly with regard to the European Security Plan for Critical Infrastructures. National critical infrastructures should be a focus of attention with regard to the management of public risks, since these represent "a set of services that are essential to the functioning of the country and the functioning of the forces that ensure national defense." (Soares, 2008) This contribution on national critical infrastructures (CI) has the essential objective of clarifying the development of the strategy adopted by Portugal in pursuit of the security of these fundamental infrastructures. The goal lies not only through producing a descriptive document, but also carry a brief confrontation between the legal framework related to these subjects and the reality in which the Critical Infrastructure Operators and the National Civil Protection Authority (ANPC) operate. It is intended, in this sense, to understand the development of the project for the national security program of critical infrastructures and what effects of its measures on operators. As for the methodology, we followed a methodological strategy, where we combine the literature with data obtained through semi-structured interviews. Portugal, being a geographically peripheral country and having no record of incidents capable of causing major contingencies in key services for the normal development of society, does not have a structured and regulator plan that substantiates the need for operators responsible for CI to invest in security. This same approach is expected at the State level, believing that even though this theme has be widely explored by international institutions, Portugal has not yet tried to give the attention it deserves. Without the existence of an institution and a regulatory system, CI operators can become less available to comply with the legal framework.

Os serviços de informações de Portugal: organização e fiscalização

In, RDeS - Revista de Direito e Segurança, nº1 (Janeiro/Junho de 2013), 63-85 pp. que consiste numa versão actualizada do texto publicado na obra colectiva AAVV, Estudos de Direito e Segurança (coordenação de Jorge Bacelar Gouveia e Rui Carlos Pereira), Almedina, Coimbra, 2007, pp. 171 e ss.

Decision-making theory applied to India's explosion of a nuclear device in May, 1974

This essay reviews the decision-making process that led to India exploding a nuclear device in May, 1974. An examination of the Analytic, Cybernetic and Cognitive Theories of decision, will enable a greater understanding of the events that led up to the 1974 test. While each theory is seen to be only partially useful, it is only by synthesising the three theories that a comprehensive account of the 1974 test can be given. To achieve this analysis, literature on decision-making in national security issues is reviewed, as well as the domestic and international environment in which involved decisionmakers operated. Finally, the rationale for the test in 1974 is examined. The conclusion revealed is that the explosion of a nuclear device by India in 1974 was primarily related to improving Indian international prestige among Third World countries and uniting a rapidly disintegrating Indian societal consensus. In themselves, individual decision-making theories were found to be of little use, but a combination of the various elements allowed a greater comprehension of the events leading up to the test than might otherwise have been the case.

Changements des politiques d’immigration et d’asile après les attentats du 11 septembre 2001 : rupture ou continuité ?

La visée de ce mémoire est d’expliquer les récents changements des lois sur l’immigration et l’asile. À prime abord, le moment de ces changements suggère une influence des attentats du 11 septembre 2001. La littérature avance toutefois que ces changements dateraient plutôt de la fin de la Guerre froide. Nous avons donc vérifié deux hypothèses, la première étant que les changements législatifs découlent de l’évolution des flux migratoires, et la seconde voulant qu’ils résultent d’une « connexion sécurité‐migration ». Nous avons d’abord eu recours aux écrits sur les changements institutionnels et les politiques d’immigration et d’asile et sur la constitution des migrations comme enjeu sécuritaire. Ensuite, nous avons étudié le contenu des lois sur l’immigration et l’asile de pays membres de l’OCDE de 1989 à 2008. Deux typologies ont été construites pour évaluer l’effet des flux migratoires sur lesdits changements législatifs. Enfin, une analyse lexicométrique nous a permis d’évaluer le poids des enjeux sécuritaires dans les lois sur l’immigration et l’asile depuis 1989. Nous avons noté l’absence de corrélation entre changements législatifs et flux migratoires mais la présence d’un lien entre ces changements et la « connexion sécurité‐migration ». Le rôle joué par le 11 septembre et d’autres attaques terroristes a été vérifié pour les États‐Unis, le Royaume‐Uni et l’Union européenne. Ce mémoire démontre ainsi la mutation des lois sur l’immigration et l’asile qui sont passées du statut de « régulateur des migrations internationales » à celui de « garant de la sécurité nationale ».