Estudo multi-temporal do uso, ocupação e perda de solos em projetos de assentamentos em Rondônia

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Genetic gain in the selection by multi-effects index in open-pollinated progenies of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden

In Brazil, Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden is widely used for commercial reforestation, especially for production of pulp, paper and energy. Its genetic variability is being explored in tree improvement programs for over 30 years. The objective of this work was to estimate genetic parameters and compare genetic gains by multi-effects index in a breeding population of E. grandis. Progeny tests were established using open-pollinated seeds from ten provenances ranging from 153 to 160 progenies established in a completely randomized block design in four sites of Sao Paulo State (Anhembi, Avere Itarare e Pratania). At 24 months of age the traits diameter at breast height (DBH), height (ALT) and volume (VOL) were measured. The individual site analyses indicated significant genetic differences among progenies, height genetic variability and the mean progeny heritability (> 0.70). For joint analyses of sites, significant differences in genotype x environmental interaction effects were detected, showing differences of performance of the progenies in different sites. The Itarare site gave high genetic gains, effective size and genetic diversity. The genetic diversity and low effective size are unviable factors; considering that the progeny tests studied should retain adequate levels of genetic variability in order to be transformed in future seedling seed orchards.

Multi-planet extrasolar systems - detection and dynamics

20 years after the discovery of the first planets outside our solar system, the current exoplanetary population includes more than 700 confirmed planets around main sequence stars. Approximately 50% belong to multiple-planet systems in very diverse dynamical configurations, from two-planet hierarchical systems to multiple resonances that could only have been attained as the consequence of a smooth large-scale orbital migration. The first part of this paper reviews the main detection techniques employed for the detection and orbital characterization of multiple-planet systems, from the (now) classical radial velocity (RV) method to the use of transit time variations (TTV) for the identification of additional planetary bodies orbiting the same star. In the second part we discuss the dynamical evolution of multi-planet systems due to their mutual gravitational interactions. We analyze possible modes of motion for hierarchical, secular or resonant configurations, and what stability criteria can be defined in each case. In some cases, the dynamics can be well approximated by simple analytical expressions for the Hamiltonian function, while other configurations can only be studied with semi-analytical or numerical tools. In particular, we show how mean-motion resonances can generate complex structures in the phase space where different libration islands and circulation domains are separated by chaotic layers. In all cases we use real exoplanetary systems as working examples.

Localising and quantifying damage by means of a multi-chromosome genetic algorithm

This paper presents a structural damage detection methodology based on genetic algorithms and dynamic parameters. Three chromosomes are used to codify an individual in the population. The first and second chromosomes locate and quantify damage, respectively. The third permits the self-adaptation of the genetic parameters. The natural frequencies and mode shapes are used to formulate the objective function. A numerical analysis was performed for several truss structures under different damage scenarios. The results have shown that the methodology can reliably identify damage scenarios using noisy measurements and that it results in only a few misidentified elements. (C) 2012 Civil-Comp Ltd and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Higher incidence of death in multi-vessel coronary artery disease patients associated with polymorphisms in chromosome 9p21

Background: We investigated whether 9p21 polymorphisms are associated with cardiovascular events in a group of 611 patients enrolled in the Medical, Angioplasty or Surgery Study II (MASS II), a randomized trial comparing treatments for patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and preserved left ventricular function. Methods: The participants of the MASS II were genotyped for 9p21 polymorphisms (rs10757274, rs2383206, rs10757278 and rs1333049). Survival curves were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank statistic. We assessed the relationship between baseline variables and the composite end-point of death, death from cardiac causes and myocardial infarction using a Cox proportional hazards survival model. Results: We observed significant differences between patients within each polymorphism genotype group for baseline characteristics. The frequency of diabetes was lower in patients carrying GG genotype for rs10757274, rs2383206 and rs10757278 (29.4%, 32.8%, 32.0%) compared to patients carrying AA or AG genotypes (49.1% and 39.2%, p = 0.01; 52.4% and 40.1%, p = 0.01; 47.8% and 37.9%, p = 0.04; respectively). Significant differences in genotype frequencies between double and triple vessel disease patients were observed for the rs10757274, rs10757278 and rs1333049. Finally, there was a higher incidence of overall mortality in patients with the GG genotype for rs2383206 compared to patients with AA and AG genotypes (19.5%, 11.9%, 11.0%, respectively; p = 0.04). Moreover, the rs2383206 was still significantly associated with a 1.75-fold increased risk of overall mortality (p = 0.02) even after adjustment of a Cox multivariate model for age, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes, smoking and type of coronary anatomy. Conclusions: Our data are in accordance to previous evidence that chromosome 9p21 genetic variation may constitute a genetic modulator in the cardiovascular system in different scenarios. In patients with established CAD, we observed an association between the rs2383206 and higher incidence of overall mortality and death from cardiac causes in patients with multi-vessel CAD.

Evolving decision trees with beam search-based initialization and lexicographic multi-objective evaluation

Decision tree induction algorithms represent one of the most popular techniques for dealing with classification problems. However, traditional decision-tree induction algorithms implement a greedy approach for node splitting that is inherently susceptible to local optima convergence. Evolutionary algorithms can avoid the problems associated with a greedy search and have been successfully employed to the induction of decision trees. Previously, we proposed a lexicographic multi-objective genetic algorithm for decision-tree induction, named LEGAL-Tree. In this work, we propose extending this approach substantially, particularly w.r.t. two important evolutionary aspects: the initialization of the population and the fitness function. We carry out a comprehensive set of experiments to validate our extended algorithm. The experimental results suggest that it is able to outperform both traditional algorithms for decision-tree induction and another evolutionary algorithm in a variety of application domains.

Ottimizzazione delle reti di distribuzione idrica tramite algoritmi genetici multi-obiettivo

Water distribution networks optimization is a challenging problem due to the dimension and the complexity of these systems. Since the last half of the twentieth century this field has been investigated by many authors. Recently, to overcome discrete nature of variables and non linearity of equations, the research has been focused on the development of heuristic algorithms. This algorithms do not require continuity and linearity of the problem functions because they are linked to an external hydraulic simulator that solve equations of mass continuity and of energy conservation of the network. In this work, a NSGA-II (Non-dominating Sorting Genetic Algorithm) has been used. This is a heuristic multi-objective genetic algorithm based on the analogy of evolution in nature. Starting from an initial random set of solutions, called population, it evolves them towards a front of solutions that minimize, separately and contemporaneously, all the objectives. This can be very useful in practical problems where multiple and discordant goals are common. Usually, one of the main drawback of these algorithms is related to time consuming: being a stochastic research, a lot of solutions must be analized before good ones are found. Results of this thesis about the classical optimal design problem shows that is possible to improve results modifying the mathematical definition of objective functions and the survival criterion, inserting good solutions created by a Cellular Automata and using rules created by classifier algorithm (C4.5). This part has been tested using the version of NSGA-II supplied by Centre for Water Systems (University of Exeter, UK) in MATLAB® environment. Even if orientating the research can constrain the algorithm with the risk of not finding the optimal set of solutions, it can greatly improve the results. Subsequently, thanks to CINECA help, a version of NSGA-II has been implemented in C language and parallelized: results about the global parallelization show the speed up, while results about the island parallelization show that communication among islands can improve the optimization. Finally, some tests about the optimization of pump scheduling have been carried out. In this case, good results are found for a small network, while the solutions of a big problem are affected by the lack of constraints on the number of pump switches. Possible future research is about the insertion of further constraints and the evolution guide. In the end, the optimization of water distribution systems is still far from a definitive solution, but the improvement in this field can be very useful in reducing the solutions cost of practical problems, where the high number of variables makes their management very difficult from human point of view.

A multiparental cross population for mapping QTL for relevant agronomic traits in durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.)

Multiparental cross designs for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) in crops are efficient alternatives to conventional biparental experimental populations because they exploit a broader genetic basis and higher mapping resolution. We describe the development and deployment of a multiparental recombinant inbred line (RIL) population in durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) obtained by crossing four elite cultivars characterized by different traits of agronomic value. A linkage map spanning 2,663 cM and including 7,594 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was produced by genotyping 338 RILs with a wheat-dedicated 90k SNP chip. A cluster file was developed for correct allele calling in the framework of the tetraploid durum wheat genome. Based on phenotypic data collected over four field experiments, a multi-trait quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis was carried out for 18 traits of agronomic relevance (including yield, yield-components, morpho-physiological and seed quality traits). Across environments, a total of 63 QTL were identified and characterized in terms of the four founder haplotypes. We mapped two QTL for grain yield across environments and 23 QTL for grain yield components. A novel major QTL for number of grain per spikelet/ear was mapped on chr 2A and shown to control up to 39% of phenotypic variance in this cross. Functionally different QTL alleles, in terms of direction and size of genetic effect, were distributed among the four parents. Based on the occurrence of QTL-clusters, we characterized the breeding values (in terms of effects on yield) of most of QTL for heading and maturity as well as yield component and quality QTL. This multiparental RIL population provides the wheat community with a highly informative QTL mapping resource enabling the dissection of the genetic architecture of multiple agronomic relevant traits in durum wheat.

A multi-regional view on aging societies accounting for the existence of non-tradable goods

This thesis assesses the question, whether accounting for non-tradable goods sectors in a calibrated Auerbach-Kotlikoff multi-regional overlapping-generations-model significantly affects this model’s results when simulating the economic impact of demographic change. Non-tradable goods constitute a major part of up to 80 percent of GDP of modern economies. At the same time, multi-regional overlapping-generations-models presented by literature on demographic change so far ignored their existence and counterfactually assumed perfect tradability between model regions. Moreover, this thesis introduces the assumption of an increasing preference share for non-tradable goods of old generations. This fact-based as-sumption is also not part of models in relevant literature. rnThese obvious simplifications of common models vis-à-vis reality notwithstanding, this thesis concludes that differences in results between a model featuring non-tradable goods and a common model with perfect tradability are very small. In other words, the common simplifi-cation of ignoring non-tradable goods is unlikely to lead to significant distortions in model results. rnIn order to ensure that differences in results between the ‘new’ model, featuring both non-tradable and tradable goods, and the common model solely reflect deviations due to the more realistic structure of the ‘new’ model, both models are calibrated to match exactly the same benchmark data and thus do not show deviations in their respective baseline steady states.rnA variation analysis performed in this thesis suggests that differences between the common model and a model with non-tradable goods can theoretically be large, but only if the bench-mark tradable goods sector is assumed to be unrealistically small.rnFinally, this thesis analyzes potential real exchange rate effects of demographic change, which could occur due to regional price differences of non-tradable goods. However, results show that shifts in real exchange rate based on these price differences are negligible.rn

Population based screening - the difficulty of how to do more good than harm and how to achieve it

Screening people without symptoms of disease is an attractive idea. Screening allows early detection of disease or elevated risk of disease, and has the potential for improved treatment and reduction of mortality. The list of future screening opportunities is set to grow because of the refinement of screening techniques, the increasing frequency of degenerative and chronic diseases, and the steadily growing body of evidence on genetic predispositions for various diseases. But how should we decide on the diseases for which screening should be done and on recommendations for how it should be implemented? We use the examples of prostate cancer and genetic screening to show the importance of considering screening as an ongoing population-based intervention with beneficial and harmful effects, and not simply the use of a test. Assessing whether screening should be recommended and implemented for any named disease is therefore a multi-dimensional task in health technology assessment. There are several countries that already use established processes and criteria to assess the appropriateness of screening. We argue that the Swiss healthcare system needs a nationwide screening commission mandated to conduct appropriate evidence-based evaluation of the impact of proposed screening interventions, to issue evidence-based recommendations, and to monitor the performance of screening programmes introduced. Without explicit processes there is a danger that beneficial screening programmes could be neglected and that ineffective, and potentially harmful, screening procedures could be introduced.

A Transformation of the Philosophical Thought of West European Liberalism in the Multi-National Central and South-Eastern European Milieu

This work was devoted to individual child development. Psychogenetic research has emphasised the importance of social factors in children's intellectual development and two social factors are looked at here, family size and birth order. The effect of the formal parameters is, however, very unstable and they should therefore be considered together with certain informal factors. Of these, parental educational style, which is an expression of national traditions at the family level, is of particular interest. Educational style is culture-dependent and only a comparative cross-cultural study can reveal the real mechanisms through which educational style influences children's intellectual and personality development. Dumitrascu carried out an experimental cross-cultural study dedicated to the effects of family environment on child intellectual development. This involved three distinct populations, each of which has a distinct status in their geographical area, namely Romanians, Romanies from Romania, and Russians from the Republic of Moldova. It showed a significant difference between child intelligence in those from large families and in only children, with a huge gap in the case of Romany children. This suggests that the simultaneous action of several negative factors (low socio-economic status, large family size, socio-cultural isolation of the population) may delay a child's development. Subjected to such a precarious environment, Romany children do not seek self-realisation but rather struggle to overcome hardship and the majority remain outside civilisation. Unfortunately, adult Romanies rarely show concern about their children's successful social integration, placing no value on the school as a major socialising tool. This leads to the conclusion that a major effort is needed to help Romanies' social integration.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

Social Structural Effects on the Level and Development of the Individual Experience of Anomie in the German Population

Can one observe an increasing level of individual lack of orientation because of rapid social change in modern societies? This question is examined using data from a representative longitudinal survey in Germany conducted in 2002–04. The study examines the role of education, age, sex, region (east/west), and political orientation for the explanation of anomia and its development. First we present the different sources of anomie in modern societies, based on the theoretical foundations of Durkheim and Merton, and introduce the different definitions of anomia, including our own cognitive version. Then we deduce several hypotheses from the theory, which we test by means of longitudinal data for the period 2002–04 in Germany using the latent growth curve model as our statistical method. The empirical findings show that all the sociodemographic variables, including political orientation, are strong predictors of the initial level of anomia. Regarding the development of anomia over time (2002–04), only the region (west) has a significant impact. In particular, the results of a multi-group analysis show that western German people with a right-wing political orientation become more anomic over this period. The article concludes with some theoretical implications.

The International ADHD in Substance Use Disorders Prevalence (IASP) study: background, methods and study population

Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is an increasingly recognized comorbid condition in subjects with substance use disorders (SUDs). This paper describes the methods and study population of the International ADHD in Substance Use Disorders Prevalence (IASP) study. Objectives of the IASP are to determine the prevalence of ADHD in adult treatment seeking patients with SUD in different countries and SUD populations, determine the reliability and validity of the Adult ADHD Self-report Scale V 1.1 (ASRS) as ADHD screening instrument in SUD populations, investigate the comorbidity profile of SUD patients with and without ADHD, compare risk factors and protective factors in SUD patients with and without a comorbid diagnosis of ADHD, and increase our knowledge about the relationship between ADHD and the onset and course of SUD. In this cross-sectional, multi-centre two stage study, subjects were screened for ADHD with the ASRS, diagnosed with the Conner's Adult ADHD Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV (CAADID), and evaluated for SUD, major depression, bipolar disorder, anti social personality disorder and borderline personality disorder. Three thousand five hundred and fifty-eight subjects from 10 countries were included. Of these 40.9% screened positive for ADHD. This is the largest international study on this population evaluating ADHD and comorbid disorders.

On the road through the Bolivian Amazon: a multi-level land governance analysis of deforestation

Previous studies have shown that collective property rights offer higher flexibility than individual property and improve sustainable community-based forest management. Our case study, carried out in the Beni department of Bolivia, does not contradict this assertion, but shows that collective rights have been granted in areas where ecological contexts and market facilities were less favourable to intensive land use. Previous experiences suggest investigating political processes in order to understand the criteria according to which access rights were distributed. Based on remote sensing and on a multi-level land governance framework, our research confirms that land placed under collective rights, compared to individual property, is less affected by deforestation among Andean settlements. However, analysis of the historical process of land distribution in the area shows that the distribution of property rights is the result of a political process based on economic, spatial, and environmental strategies that are defined by multiple stakeholders. Collective titles were established in the more remote areas and distributed to communities with lower productive potentialities. Land rights are thus a secondary factor of forest cover change which results from diverse political compromises based on population distribution, accessibility, environmental perceptions, and expected production or extraction incomes.