On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts

Reliability analysis of probabilistic forecasts, in particular through the rank histogram or Talagrand diagram, is revisited. Two shortcomings are pointed out: Firstly, a uniform rank histogram is but a necessary condition for reliability. Secondly, if the forecast is assumed to be reliable, an indication is needed how far a histogram is expected to deviate from uniformity merely due to randomness. Concerning the first shortcoming, it is suggested that forecasts be grouped or stratified along suitable criteria, and that reliability is analyzed individually for each forecast stratum. A reliable forecast should have uniform histograms for all individual forecast strata, not only for all forecasts as a whole. As to the second shortcoming, instead of the observed frequencies, the probability of the observed frequency is plotted, providing and indication of the likelihood of the result under the hypothesis that the forecast is reliable. Furthermore, a Goodness-Of-Fit statistic is discussed which is essentially the reliability term of the Ignorance score. The discussed tools are applied to medium range forecasts for 2 m-temperature anomalies at several locations and lead times. The forecasts are stratified along the expected ranked probability score. Those forecasts which feature a high expected score turn out to be particularly unreliable.

European storminess and associated circulation weather types: future changes deduced from a multi-model ensemble of GCM simulations

A range of possible changes in the frequency and characteristics of European wind storms under future climate conditions was investigated on the basis of a multi-model ensemble of 9 coupled global climate model (GCM) simulations for the 20th and 21st centuries following the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. A multi-model approach allowed an estimation of the (un)certainties of the climate change signals. General changes in large-scale atmospheric flow were analysed, the occurrence of wind storms was quantified, and atmospheric features associated with wind storm events were considered. Identified storm days were investigated according to atmospheric circulation, associated pressure patterns, cyclone tracks and wind speed patterns. Validation against reanalysis data revealed that the GCMs are in general capable of realistically reproducing characteristics of European circulation weather types (CWTs) and wind storms. Results are given with respect to frequency of occurrence, storm-associated flow conditions, cyclone tracks and specific wind speed patterns. Under anthropogenic climate change conditions (SRES A1B scenario), increased frequency of westerly flow during winter is detected over the central European investigation area. In the ensemble mean, the number of detected wind storm days increases between 19 and 33% for 2 different measures of storminess, only 1 GCM revealed less storm days. The increased number of storm days detected in most models is disproportionately high compared to the related CWT changes. The mean intensity of cyclones associated with storm days in the ensemble mean increases by about 10 (±10)% in the Eastern Atlantic, near the British Isles and in the North Sea. Accordingly, wind speeds associated with storm events increase significantly by about 5 (±5)% over large parts of central Europe, mainly on days with westerly flow. The basic conclusions of this work remain valid if different ensemble contructions are considered, leaving out an outlier model or including multiple runs of one particular model.

Compliant Multi-electrode Micro-channel Array for Recording Afferent Nerve Activity

We have fabricated a compliant neural interface to record afferent nerve activity. Stretchable gold electrodes were evaporated on a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) substrate and were encapsulated using photo-patternable PDMS. The built-in microstructure of the gold film on PDMS allows the electrodes to twist and flex repeatedly, without loss of electrical conductivity. PDMS microchannels (5mm long, 100μm wide, 100μm deep) were then plasma bonded irreversibly on top of the electrode array to define five parallel-conduit implants. The soft gold microelectrodes have a low impedance of ~200kΩ at the 1kHz frequency range. Teased nerves from the L6 dorsal root of an anaesthetized Sprague Dawley rat were threaded through the microchannels. Acute tripolar recordings of cutaneous activity are demonstrated, from multiple nerve rootlets simultaneously. Confinement of the axons within narrow microchannels allows for reliable recordings of low amplitude afferents. This electrode technology promises exciting applications in neuroprosthetic devices including bladder fullness monitors and peripheral nervous system implants.

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Performance of the Quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire Used in the Brazilian Center of the Prospective Study Natural History of Human Papillomavirus Infection in Men: The HIM Study

The Natural History of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection in Men: The HIM Study is a prospective multi-center cohort study that, among other factors, analyzes participants` diet. A parallel cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the validity and reproducibility of the quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) used in the Brazilian center from the HIM Study. For this, a convenience subsample of 98 men aged 18 to 70 years from the HIM Study in Brazil answered three 54-item QFFQ and three 24-hour recall interviews, with 6-month intervals between them (data collection January to September 2007). A Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the difference between instruments was dependent on the magnitude of the intake for energy and most nutrients included in the validity analysis, with the exception of carbohydrates, fiber, polyunsaturated fat, vitamin C, and vitamin E. The correlation between the QFFQ and the 24-hour recall for the deattenuated and energy-adjusted data ranged from 0.05 (total fat) to 0.57 (calcium). For the energy and nutrients consumption included in the validity analysis, 33.5% of participants on average were correctly classified into quartiles, and the average value of 0.26 for weighted kappa shows a reasonable agreement. The intraclass correlation coefficients for all nutrients were greater than 0.40 in the reproducibility analysis. The QFFQ demonstrated good reproducibility and acceptable validity. The results support the use of this instrument in the HIM Study. J Am Diet Assoc. 2011;111:1045-1051.

Influence of multi-scale landscape structure on the occurrence of carnivorous mammals in a human-modified savanna, Brazil

So Paulo is the most developed state in Brazil and contains few fragments of native ecosystems, generally surrounded by intensive agriculture lands. Despite this, some areas still shelter large native animals. We aimed at understanding how medium and large carnivores use a mosaic landscape of forest/savanna and agroecosystems, and how the species respond to different landscape parameters (percentage of landcover and edge density), in a multi-scale perspective. The response variables were: species richness, carnivore frequency and frequency for the three most recorded species (Puma concolor, Chrysocyon brachyurus and Leopardus pardalis). We compared 11 competing models using Akaike`s information criterion (AIC) and assessed model support using weight of AIC. Concurrent models were combinations of landcover types (native vegetation, ""cerrado"" formations, ""cerrado"" and eucalypt plantation), landscape feature (percentage of landcover and edge density) and spatial scale. Herein, spatial scale refers to the radius around a sampling point defining a circular landscape. The scales analyzed were 250 (fine), 1,000 (medium) and 2,000 m (coarse). The shape of curves for response variables (linear, exponential and power) was also assessed. Our results indicate that species with high mobility, P. concolor and C. brachyurus, were best explained by edge density of the native vegetation at a coarse scale (2,000 m). The relationship between P. concolor and C. brachyurus frequency had a negative power-shaped response to explanatory variables. This general trend was also observed for species richness and carnivore frequency. Species richness and P. concolor frequency were also well explained by a second concurrent model: edge density of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. A different response was recorded for L. pardalis, as the frequency was best explained for the amount of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. The curve of response was linearly positive. The contrasting results (P. concolor and C. brachyurus vs L. pardalis) may be due to the much higher mobility of the two first species, in comparison with the third. Still, L. pardalis requires habitat with higher quality when compared with other two species. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple spatial scales when evaluating species responses to different habitats. An important and new finding was the prevalence of edge density over the habitat extension to explain overall carnivore distribution, a key information for planning and management of protected areas.

A Broad-spectrum mer Operon in a Multi-drug Resistant Strain of the Fish Pathogen, Aeromonas salmonicida.

Aeromonas salmonicida AS03, a potential fish pathogen, was isolated from Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in 2003. This strain was found to be resistant to ≥1000 mM HgCl2 and ≥32 mM phenylmercuric acetate as well as multiple antimicrobials. Mercury (Hg) and antibiotic resistance genes are often located on the same mobile genetic elements, so the genetic determinants of both resistances and the possibility of horizontal gene transfer were examined. Specific PCR primers were used to amplify and sequence distinctive regions of the mer operon. A. salmonicida AS03 was found to have a pDU1358-like broad-spectrum mer operon, containing merB as well as merA, merD, merP, merR and merT, most similar to Klebsiella pneumonaie plasmid pRMH760. To our knowledge, the mer operon has never before been documented in Aeromonas spp. PCR and gene sequencing were used to identify class 1 integron associated antibiotic resistance determinants and the Tet A tetracycline resistance gene. The transposase and resolvase genes of Tn1696 were identified through PCR and sequencing with Tn21 specific PCR primers. We provide phenotypic and genotypic evidence that the mer operon, the aforementioned antibiotic resistances, and the Tn1696 transposition module are located on a single plasmid or conjugative transposon that can be transferred to E. coli DH5α through conjugation in the presence of low level Hg and absence of any antibiotic selective pressure. Additionally, the presence of low-level Hg or chloramphenicol in the mating media was found to stimulate conjugation, significantly increasing the transfer frequency of conjugation above the transfer frequency measured with mating media lacking both antibiotics and Hg. This research demonstrates that mercury indirectly selects for the dissemination of the antibiotic resistance genes of A. salmonicida AS03.

A broad-spectrum mer operon in a multi-drug resistant strain of the fish pathogen, Aeromonas salmonicida

Aeromonas salmonicida AS03, a potential fish pathogen, was isolated from Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in 2003. This strain was found to be resistant to ≥1000 mM HgCl2 and ≥32 mM phenylmercuric acetate as well as multiple antimicrobials. Mercury (Hg) and antibiotic resistance genes are often located on the same mobile genetic elements, so the genetic determinants of both resistances and the possibility of horizontal gene transfer were examined. Specific PCR primers were used to amplify and sequence distinctive regions of the mer operon. A. salmonicida AS03 was found to have a pDU1358-like broad-spectrum mer operon, containing merB as well as merA, merD, merP, merR and merT, most similar to Klebsiella pneumonaie plasmid pRMH760. To our knowledge, the mer operon has never before been documented in Aeromonas spp. PCR and gene sequencing were used to identify class 1 integron associated antibiotic resistance determinants and the Tet A tetracycline resistance gene. The transposase and resolvase genes of Tn1696 were identified through PCR and sequencing with Tn21 specific PCR primers. We provide phenotypic and genotypic evidence that the mer operon, the aforementioned antibiotic resistances, and the Tn1696 transposition module are located on a single plasmid or conjugative transposon that can be transferred to E. coli DH5α through conjugation in the presence of low level Hg and absence of any antibiotic selective pressure. Additionally, the presence of low-level Hg or chloramphenicol in the mating media was found to stimulate conjugation, significantly increasing the transfer frequency of conjugation above the transfer frequency measured with mating media lacking both antibiotics and Hg. This research demonstrates that mercury indirectly selects for the dissemination of the antibiotic resistance genes of A. salmonicida AS03.

Carbon fiber non-crimp multi-axial reinforcement and epoxy mono-component system composite: fatigue behavior

Fiber reinforced polymer composites have been widely applied in the aeronautical field. However, composite processing, which uses unlocked molds, should be avoided in view of the tight requirements and also due to possible environmental contamination. To produce high performance structural frames meeting aeronautical reproducibility and low cost criteria, the Brazilian industry has shown interest to investigate the resin transfer molding process (RTM) considering being a closed-mold pressure injection system which allows faster gel and cure times. Due to the fibrous composite anisotropic and non homogeneity characteristics, the fatigue behavior is a complex phenomenon quite different from to metals materials crucial to be investigated considering the aeronautical application. Fatigue sub-scale specimens of intermediate modulus carbon fiber non-crimp multi-axial reinforcement and epoxy mono-component system composite were produced according to the ASTM 3039 D. Axial fatigue tests were carried out according to ASTM D 3479. A sinusoidal load of 10 Hz frequency and load ratio R = 0.1. It was observed a high fatigue interval obtained for NCF/RTM6 composites. Weibull statistical analysis was applied to describe the failure probability of materials under cyclic loads and fractures pattern was observed by scanning electron microscopy. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Dielectric and viscoelastic properties of cross-linked polyethylene aged under multi stressing conditions

Different measurements were performed in cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) employed as insulating material in coaxial cables that were field-aged and laboratory-aged under multi-stressing conditions at room temperature. Samples were peeled from the XLPE cable insulation in three different positions: just below the external semiconductor layer (outer layer), in the middle (middle layer) and just above the internal semiconductor layer of the cable (inner layer). The imaginary part of the electric susceptibility showed three peaks that obey the Dissado-Hill model. For laboratory-aged XLPE samples peeled from the inner and from the middle positions the peak at very low frequency region increased while in samples from the outer position a quasi-DC conduction process was observed. In medium frequency range a broadening of the peak was observed for all samples. Viscoelastic properties determined through dynamic mechanical analysis suggested that the aging generates processes that promoted changes of the crystallinity and the cross-linking degrees of the polymer. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) measurements revealed an increase of oxidation products (esters), evidence of polar residues of the bow-tie tree and the presence of cross-linking by-products (acetophenone). Optical and scanning electronic microscope (SEM) measurements in aged samples revealed the existence of voids and bow-tie trees that were formed during aging in the middle region of the cable.

Enhanced multi-wavelength holographic profilometry by laser mode selection

The application of multi-wavelength holography for surface shape measurement is presented. In our holographic setup a Bi12TiO 20 (BTO) photorefractive crystal was the holographic recording medium and a multimode diode laser emitting in the red region was the light source in a two-wave mixing scheme. The holographic imaging with multimode lasers results in multiple holograms in the BTO. By employing such lasers the resulting holographic image appears covered of interference fringes corresponding to the object relief and the interferogram spatial frequency is proportional to the diode laser free spectral range (FSR). We used a Fabry-Perot étalon at the laser output for laser mode selection. Thus, larger effective values of the laser FSR were achieved, leading to higher-spatial frequency interferograms and therefore to more sensitive and accurate measurements. The quantitative evaluation of the interferograms was performed through the phase stepping technique (PST) and the phase map unwrapping was carried out through the Cellular-Automata method. For a given surface, shape measurements with different interferogram spatial frequencies were performed and compared, concerning measurement noise and visual inspection.

Spectral analysis and low-frequency multipath mitigation for kinematic applications

Low-frequency multipath is still one of the major challenges for high precision GPS relative positioning. In kinematic applications, mainly, due to geometry changes, the low-frequency multipath is difficult to be removed or modeled. Spectral analysis has a powerful technique to analyze this kind of non-stationary signals: the wavelet transform. However, some processes and specific ways of processing are necessary to work together in order to detect and efficiently mitigate low-frequency multipath. In this paper, these processes are discussed. Some experiments were carried out in a kinematic mode with a controlled and known vehicle movement. The data were collected in the presence of a reflector surface placed close to the vehicle to cause, mainly, low-frequency multipath. From theanalyses realized, the results in terms of double difference residuals and statistical tests showed that the proposed methodology is very efficient to detect and mitigate low-frequency multipath effects. © 2008 IEEE.

An effective wavelet method to detect and mitigate low-frequency multipath effects

To ensure high accuracy results from GPS relative positioning, the multipath effects have to be mitigated. Although the careful selection of antenna site and the use of especial antennas and receivers can minimize multipath, it cannot always be eliminated and frequently the residual multipath disturbance remains as the major error in GPS results. The high-frequency multipath from large delays can be attenuated by double difference (DD) denoising methods. But the low-frequency multipath from short delays is very difficult to be reduced or modeled. In this paper, it is proposed a method based on wavelet regression (WR), which can effectively detect and reduce the low-frequency multipath. The wavelet technique is firstly applied to decompose the DD residuals into the low-frequency bias and high-frequency noise components. The extracted bias components by WR are then directly applied to the DD observations to correct them from the trend. The remaining terms, largely characterized by the high-frequency measurement noise, are expected to give the best linear unbiased solutions from a least-squares (LS) adjustment. An experiment was carried out using objects placed close to the receiver antenna to cause, mainly, low-frequency multipath. The data were collected for two days to verify the multipath repeatability. The ground truth coordinates were computed with data collected in the absence of the reflector objects. The coordinates and ambiguity solution were compared with and without the multipath mitigation using WR. After mitigating the multipath, ambiguity resolution became more reliable and the coordinates were more accurate.

Coupling rate measurement of a novel multi-actuated piezoelectric device using optical interferometry

The class of piezoelectric actuators considered in this paper consists of a multi-flexible structure actuated by two or more piezoceramic devices that must generate different output displacements and forces at different specified points of the domain and in different directions. The devices were modeled by finite element using the software ANSYS and the topology optimization method. The following XY actuators were build to achieve maximum displacement in the X and Y directions with a minimum crosstalk between them. The actuator prototypes are composed of an aluminum structure, manufactured by using a wire Electrical Discharge Machining, which are bonded to rectangular PZT5A piezoceramic blocks by using epoxy resin. Multi-actuator piezoelectric device displacements can be measured by using optical interferometry, since it allows dynamic measurements in the kHz range, which is of the order of the first resonance frequency of these piezomechanisms. A Michelson-type interferometer, with a He-Ne laser source, is used to measure the displacement amplitudes in nanometric range. A new optical phase demodulation technique is applied, based on the properties of the triangular waveform drive voltage applied to the XY piezoelectric nanopositioner. This is a low-phase-modulation-depth-like technique that allows the rapid interferometer auto-calibration. The measurements were performed at 100 Hz frequency, and revealed that the device is linear voltage range utilized in this work. The ratio between the generated and coupled output displacements and the drive voltages is equal to 10.97 nm/V and 1.76 nm/V, respectively, which corresponds to a 16% coupling rate. © 2010 IEEE.

Estimativas de parâmetros genéticos para produção de leite em búfalas por modelos de repetibilidade, multi-característica e de regressão aleatória

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)