Dominance intensity measure within fuzzy weight oriented MAUT: an application

We introduce a dominance intensity measuring method to derive a ranking of alternatives to deal with incomplete information in multi-criteria decision-making problems on the basis of multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) and fuzzy sets theory. We consider the situation where there is imprecision concerning decision-makers’ preferences, and imprecise weights are represented by trapezoidal fuzzy weights.The proposed method is based on the dominance values between pairs of alternatives. These values can be computed by linear programming, as an additive multi-attribute utility model is used to rate the alternatives. Dominance values are then transformed into dominance intensity measures, used to rank the alternatives under consideration. Distances between fuzzy numbers based on the generalization of the left and right fuzzy numbers are utilized to account for fuzzy weights. An example concerning the selection of intervention strategies to restore an aquatic ecosystem contaminated by radionuclides illustrates the approach. Monte Carlo simulation techniques have been used to show that the proposed method performs well for different imprecision levels in terms of a hit ratio and a rank-order correlation measure.

Introducción de criterios de sostenibilidad en la elección de emplazamientos industriales mediante modelos multicriterio

(SPA) La elección de localizaciones para la implantación de actividades industriales es un problema complejo, donde a los criterios de coste y eficiencia se han ido añadiendo otros nuevos relativos tanto al impacto en el medio ambiente como a la imagen de la empresa reflejada en la Responsabilidad Social Empresarial. Los criterios medioambientales han ido adquiriendo gran relevancia en la decisión final, hasta convertirse, gracias a la obligación de someter los proyectos a evaluación ambiental, en elementos clave en la decisión final. Por ello, resulta relativamente frecuente que los promotores consulten previamente con la Administración sobre la viabilidad de sus proyectos antes de iniciar un dilatado procedimiento administrativo. En este trabajo se plantea la utilización de indicadores de sostenibilidad y su aplicación, a través de un modelo de decisiones multicriterio, para la ordenación de las distintas opciones de ubicación inicialmente consideradas, de tal forma que se conviertan en instrumento de tanteo y ayuda en la toma de estas decisiones. Para mostrar su utilidad se propone la utilización de la herramienta de apoyo basada en la metodología PROMETHEE y su aplicación en la ordenación de cinco emplazamientos alternativos para la instalación de una cementera en la Comunidad de Madrid según criterios de sostenibilidad. (ENG) The choice of locations for the implementation of industrial activities is a complex problem where the cost and efficiency criteria have been adding new ones relating to the environment impact and the company’s corporate image reflected in Corporate Social Responsability. The environmental criteria have been getting big importance in the final decision, to become key elements in the final decision, due to the duty of submit of environmental assessment projects. Therefore, promoters, quite often, ask previously to the Administration about the viability of their projects before starting a lengthy administrative procedure. This paper proposes the use of sustainability indicators and their application through a multi-criteria decision model for managing the establishment options initially considered, so that they become an help instrument of estimation in order to making these decisions. To show its usefulness we propose the use of the support tool for decision making based on the PROMETHEE methodology and its application in the management of 5 alternative sites for the installation of a cement factory in the Community of Madrid under sustainability criteria.

A note on DEA models in technology selection:an improvement of Karsak and Ahiska's approach

This paper introduces a compact form for the maximum value of the non-Archimedean in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models applied for the technology selection, without the need to solve a linear programming (LP). Using this method the computational performance the common weight multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) DEA model proposed by Karsak and Ahiska (International Journal of Production Research, 2005, 43(8), 1537-1554) is improved. This improvement is significant when computational issues and complexity analysis are a concern.

Solar thermal collectors for use in hybrid solar-biomass power plants in India

This thesis examined solar thermal collectors for use in alternative hybrid solar-biomass power plant applications in Gujarat, India. Following a preliminary review, the cost-effective selection and design of the solar thermal field were identified as critical factors underlying the success of hybrid plants. Consequently, the existing solar thermal technologies were reviewed and ranked for use in India by means of a multi-criteria decision-making method, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Informed by the outcome of the AHP, the thesis went on to pursue the Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR), the design of which was optimised with the help of ray-tracing. To further enhance collector performance, LFR concepts incorporating novel mirror spacing and drive mechanisms were evaluated. Subsequently, a new variant, termed the Elevation Linear Fresnel Reflector (ELFR) was designed, constructed and tested at Aston University, UK, therefore allowing theoretical models for the performance of a solar thermal field to be verified. Based on the resulting characteristics of the LFR, and data gathered for the other hybrid system components, models of hybrid LFR- and ELFR-biomass power plants were developed and analysed in TRNSYS®. The techno-economic and environmental consequences of varying the size of the solar field in relation to the total plant capacity were modelled for a series of case studies to evaluate different applications: tri-generation (electricity, ice and heat), electricity-only generation, and process heat. The case studies also encompassed varying site locations, capacities, operational conditions and financial situations. In the case of a hybrid tri-generation plant in Gujarat, it was recommended to use an LFR solar thermal field of 14,000 m2 aperture with a 3 tonne biomass boiler, generating 815 MWh per annum of electricity for nearby villages and 12,450 tonnes of ice per annum for local fisheries and food industries. However, at the expense of a 0.3 ¢/kWh increase in levelised energy costs, the ELFR increased saving of biomass (100 t/a) and land (9 ha/a). For solar thermal applications in areas with high land cost, the ELFR reduced levelised energy costs. It was determined that off-grid hybrid plants for tri-generation were the most feasible application in India. Whereas biomass-only plants were found to be more economically viable, it was concluded that hybrid systems will soon become cost competitive and can considerably improve current energy security and biomass supply chain issues in India.

Strategic logistics outsourcing: an integrated QFD and AHP approach

Third-party logistics service providers (3PLs) play a vital role in contemporary supply chain management. Evaluation and selection of the right 3PLs depends on a wide range of quantitative and qualitative criteria rather than cost-based factors. Although various multi-criteria decision making approaches have been proposed, they have not considered the impact of business objectives and requirements of company stakeholders on the evaluating criteria. To enable the "voice" of company stakeholders is considered, this paper develops an integrated approach for selecting 3PL strategically. In the approach, multiple evaluating criteria are derived from the requirements of company stakeholders using a series of house of quality (HOQ). The importance of evaluating criteria is prioritized with respect to the degree of achieving the stakeholder requirements using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Based on the ranked criteria, alternative 3PLs are evaluated and compared with each other using AHP again to make an optimal selection.

UTILIZATION OF GIS AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES IN ARTISANAL AND SMALL SCALE MINING TO LOCATE A CENTRALIZED PROCESSING CENTRE

One of the global phenomena with threats to environmental health and safety is artisanal mining. There are ambiguities in the manner in which an ore-processing facility operates which hinders the mining capacity of these miners in Ghana. These problems are reviewed on the basis of current socio-economic, health and safety, environmental, and use of rudimentary technologies which limits fair-trade deals to miners. This research sought to use an established data-driven, geographic information (GIS)-based system employing the spatial analysis approach for locating a centralized processing facility within the Wassa Amenfi-Prestea Mining Area (WAPMA) in the Western region of Ghana. A spatial analysis technique that utilizes ModelBuilder within the ArcGIS geoprocessing environment through suitability modeling will systematically and simultaneously analyze a geographical dataset of selected criteria. The spatial overlay analysis methodology and the multi-criteria decision analysis approach were selected to identify the most preferred locations to site a processing facility. For an optimal site selection, seven major criteria including proximity to settlements, water resources, artisanal mining sites, roads, railways, tectonic zones, and slopes were considered to establish a suitable location for a processing facility. Site characterizations and environmental considerations, incorporating identified constraints such as proximity to large scale mines, forest reserves and state lands to site an appropriate position were selected. The analysis was limited to criteria that were selected and relevant to the area under investigation. Saaty’s analytical hierarchy process was utilized to derive relative importance weights of the criteria and then a weighted linear combination technique was applied to combine the factors for determination of the degree of potential site suitability. The final map output indicates estimated potential sites identified for the establishment of a facility centre. The results obtained provide intuitive areas suitable for consideration

Using AHP and the IPMA Competence Baseline in the project managers selection process

This paper proposes the joint use of the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the ICB (IPMA Competence Baseline), as a tool for the decision-making process of selecting the most suitable managers for projects. A hierarchical structure, comprising the IPMA’s ICB 3.0 contextual, behavioural and technical competence elements, is constructed for the selection of project managers. It also describes the AHP implementation, illustrating the whole process with an example using all the 46 ICB competence elements as model criteria. This tool can be of high interest to decision-makers because it allows comparing the candidates for managing a project using a systematic and rigorous process with a rich set of proven criteria.

A long-term energy efficiency prediction model for the Brazilian automotive industry

According to law number 12.715/2012, Brazilian government instituted guidelines for a program named Inovar-Auto. In this context, energy efficiency is a survival requirement for Brazilian automotive industry from September 2016. As proposed by law, energy efficiency is not going to be calculated by models only. It is going to be calculated by the whole universe of new vehicles registered. In this scenario, the composition of vehicles sold in market will be a key factor on profits of each automaker. Energy efficiency and its consequences should be taken into consideration in all of its aspects. In this scenario, emerges the following question: which is the efficiency curve of one automaker for long term, allowing them to adequate to rules, keep balancing on investment in technologies, increasing energy efficiency without affecting competitiveness of product lineup? Among several variables to be considered, one can highlight the analysis of manufacturing costs, customer value perception and market share, which characterizes this problem as a multi-criteria decision-making. To tackle the energy efficiency problem required by legislation, this paper proposes a framework of multi-criteria decision-making. The proposed framework combines Delphi group and Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify suitable alternatives for automakers to incorporate in main Brazilian vehicle segments. A forecast model based on artificial neural networks was used to estimate vehicle sales demand to validate expected results. This approach is demonstrated with a real case study using public vehicles sales data of Brazilian automakers and public energy efficiency data.

Proposta de uma matriz de decisão em energia hidrelétrica com o uso do método multicritério, para formulação de políticas públicas no estado do Paraná

Brazil is internationally acknowledged for its renewable sources, most notably, hydroelectric power plant projects which correspond to 65% of electricity production supply to the National Interconnected System. The main question behind this research is: what are the weights and the relative importance of the variables which have influence on the decision making process for the expansion of hydroelectric generation projects in Parana? The main objective is to propose a multi-criteria decision procedure, in association with water sources options that take into consideration the weight and relative importance of the alternatives having influence on the decision by enterprises in the generation of electricity in the state of Paraná. As far as the approach to the problem is concerned, this research can be classified as having mixed methodologies, applying Content Analysis, Delphi technique and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Following Delphi methodology, a group of 21 was selected for data collection, all of those linked to Paranaense hydroelectricity market. And the main result was the construction of a decision tree in which it was possible to identify the importance and relative weight of the elements associated with the four dimensions of energy. In environmental dimension, the highest relative weight was placed on the loading capacity of Parana system; the economic dimension, the amortization of investment; in social dimension, the generation of direct work places and in institutional dimension, the availability of suitable sources of financing. Policy makers and business managers make their decisions based on specific criteria related to the organization segment, market information, economic and political behavior among other indicators that guide them in dealing with the typical tradeoffs of projects in hydropower area. The results obtained in the decision tree show that the economic bias is still the main factor in making investment decisions. However, environmental impacts on the State loading capacity, income generation, providing opportunities for direct as well as indirect jobs. And at an institutional level, the absence of funding sources show that the perception of experts is focused on other issues beyond the logic behind development per se. The order of priority of variables in this study indicates that in the current environment of uncertainty in the Brazilian economy as many variables must be analyzed and compared in order to optimize the scarce resources available to expand local development in relation to Paranaense water matrix.

Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process in healthcare research: A systematic literature review and evaluation of reporting

Background: The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), developed by Saaty in the late 1970s, is one of the methods for multi-criteria decision making. The AHP disaggregates a complex decision problem into different hierarchical levels. The weight for each criterion and alternative are judged in pairwise comparisons and priorities are calculated by the Eigenvector method. The slowly increasing application of the AHP was the motivation for this study to explore the current state of its methodology in the healthcare context. Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted by searching the Pubmed and Web of Science databases for articles with the following keywords in their titles or abstracts: "Analytic Hierarchy Process," "Analytical Hierarchy Process," "multi-criteria decision analysis," "multiple criteria decision," "stated preference," and "pairwise comparison." In addition, we developed reporting criteria to indicate whether the authors reported important aspects and evaluated the resulting studies' reporting. Results: The systematic review resulted in 121 articles. The number of studies applying AHP has increased since 2005. Most studies were from Asia (almost 30 %), followed by the US (25.6 %). On average, the studies used 19.64 criteria throughout their hierarchical levels. Furthermore, we restricted a detailed analysis to those articles published within the last 5 years (n = 69). The mean of participants in these studies were 109, whereas we identified major differences in how the surveys were conducted. The evaluation of reporting showed that the mean of reported elements was about 6.75 out of 10. Thus, 12 out of 69 studies reported less than half of the criteria. Conclusion: The AHP has been applied inconsistently in healthcare research. A minority of studies described all the relevant aspects. Thus, the statements in this review may be biased, as they are restricted to the information available in the papers. Hence, further research is required to discover who should be interviewed and how, how inconsistent answers should be dealt with, and how the outcome and stability of the results should be presented. In addition, we need new insights to determine which target group can best handle the challenges of the AHP. © 2015 Schmidt et al.

An expert model approach to assess the potential of non-wood forest products for forest owners

Mestrado em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Methodologies for the analysis and interpretation of environmental datasets from areas interested by offshore activities

The exploitation of hydrocarbon reservoirs by the oil and gas industries represents one of the most relevant and concerning anthropic stressor in various marine areas worldwide and the presence of extractive structures can have severe consequences on the marine environment. Environmental monitoring surveys are carried out to monitor the effects and impacts of offshore energy facilities. Macrobenthic communities, inhabiting the soft-bottom, represent a key component of these surveys given their great responsiveness to natural and anthropic changes. A comprehensive collection of monitoring data from four Italian seas was used to investigate distributional pattern of macrozoobenthos assemblages confirming a high spatial variability in relation to the environmental variables analyzed. Since these datasets could represent a powerful tool for the industrial and scientific research, the steps and standardized procedures needed to obtain robust and comparable high-quality data were investigated and outlined. Over recent years, decommissioning of old platforms is a growing topic in this sector, involving many actors in the various decision-making processes. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, specific for the Adriatic Sea, was developed to investigate the impacts of decommissioning of a gas platform on environmental and socio-economic aspects, to select the best decommissioning scenario. From the scenarios studied, the most impacting one has resulted to be total removal, affecting all the faunal component considered in the study. Currently, the European nations are increasing the production of energy from offshore wind farms with an exponential expansion. A comparative study of methodologies used five countries of the North Sea countries was carried out to investigate the best approaches to monitor the effects of wind farms on the benthic communities. In the foreseeable future, collaboration between industry, scientific communities, national and international policies are needed to gain knowledge concerning the effects of these industrial activities on the ecological status of the ecosystems.

Using Multi-Objective Optimization To Maximize Multiple Benefits For Sustainable Drainage Design

For many years, drainage design was mainly about providing sufficient network capacity. This traditional approach had been successful with the aid of computer software and technical guidance. However, the drainage design criteria had been evolving due to rapid population growth, urbanisation, climate change and increasing sustainability awareness. Sustainable drainage systems that bring benefits in addition to water management have been recommended as better alternatives to conventional pipes and storages. Although the concepts and good practice guidance had already been communicated to decision makers and public for years, network capacity still remains a key design focus in many circumstances while the additional benefits are generally considered secondary only. Yet, the picture is changing. The industry begins to realise that delivering multiple benefits should be given the top priority while the drainage service can be considered a secondary benefit instead. The shift in focus means the industry has to adapt to new design challenges. New guidance and computer software are needed to assist decision makers. For this purpose, we developed a new decision support system. The system consists of two main components – a multi-criteria evaluation framework for drainage systems and a multi-objective optimisation tool. Users can systematically quantify the performance, life-cycle costs and benefits of different drainage systems using the evaluation framework. The optimisation tool can assist users to determine combinations of design parameters such as the sizes, order and type of drainage components that maximise multiple benefits. In this paper, we will focus on the optimisation component of the decision support framework. The optimisation problem formation, parameters and general configuration will be discussed. We will also look at the sensitivity of individual variables and the benchmark results obtained using common multi-objective optimisation algorithms. The work described here is the output of an EngD project funded by EPSRC and XP Solutions.

Metodologia multicritério para avaliar as condições de operação do transporte de carga por cabotagem no Brasil, sob a ótica dos armadores

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, 2016.

Modelos quantitativos de apoio as decisões: II

O sucesso da aplicação de técnicas de Análise das Decisões como apoio em problemas com um único objetivo predominante abriu caminho para estudos de problemas mais ambiciosos como os de decisões com multicritérios e decisões e de grupo (estes dois tipos utilizam metodologias muito semelhantes). Como evolução natural da Análise das Decisões, resultou a metodologia MAUT (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory). Seu rigorismo teórico torna as aplicações difíceis para um analista menos preparado. Como conseqüência, surgiu a metodologia AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) de utilização extremamente simples. A crítica ao AHP veio da escola européia que criou uma série de métodos conhecidos pela abreviação comum: MCDA (Multicriteria Decision Aid).