The relationship between implied and realized volatility : evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

Studying the effect of market orientation and organisational culture on a brand’s performance

It is now well accepted that effective implementation of market orientation leads to superior performance. This paper theorises that market orientation and an innovative culture enable organisations to achieve higher brand performance. To test this proposition data were gathered from a sample of firms across a range of industries. The results support the premise that market orientation and innovative cultures improve brand performance and that innovative culture influences market orientation. The results also indicate that innovative culture is the stronger driver of brand performance over market orientation.

Post-WTO China : competition and technology transfer laws in the 'new' socialist market economy

China has been the focus of much academic and business scrutiny of late. Its economic climate is changing and its huge new market opportunities seem quite tantalizing to the would-be 'technology entrepreneur'. But China's market is a relatively immature one; it is still in the process of being opened up to real competition. The corollary of this is that, at this stage of the transitional process, there is still significant State control of market function. This article discusses Chinese competition law, the technology transfer system, how the laws are being reformed and how the technology entrepreneur fares under them. The bottom line is that while opportunities beckon, the wise entrepreneur will nevertheless continue to exercise caution.

Market access of Papua New Guinea bananas (Musa spp.) with particular respect to banana fly (Bactrocera musae (Tryon)) (Diptera: Tephritidae)

International market access for fresh commodities is regulated by international accepted phytosanitary guidelines, the objectives of which are to reduce the biosecurity risk of plant pest and disease movement. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has identified banana as a potential export crop and to help meet international market access requirements, this thesis provides information for the development of a pest risk analysis (PRA) for PNG banana fruit. The PRA is a three step process which first identifies the pests associated with a particular commodity or pathway, then assesses the risk associated with those pests, and finally identifies risk management options for those pests if required. As the first step of the PRA process, I collated a definitive list on the organisms associated with the banana plant in PNG using formal literature, structured interviews with local experts, grey literature and unpublished file material held in PNG field research stations. I identified 112 organisms (invertebrates, vertebrate, pathogens and weeds) associated with banana in PNG, but only 14 of these were reported as commonly requiring management. For these 14 I present detailed information summaries on their known biology and pest impact. A major finding of the review was that of the 14 identified key pests, some research information occurs for 13. The single exception for which information was found to be lacking was Bactrocera musae (Tryon), the banana fly. The lack of information for this widely reported ‘major pest on PNG bananas’ would hinder the development of a PNG banana fruit PRA. For this reason the remainder of the thesis focused on this organism, particularly with respect to generation of information required by the PRA process. Utilising an existing, but previously unanalysed fruit fly trapping database for PNG, I carried out a Geographic Information System analysis of the distribution and abundance of banana in four major regions of PNG. This information is required for a PRA to determine if banana fruit grown in different parts of the country are at different risks from the fly. Results showed that the fly was widespread in all cropping regions and that temperature and rainfall were not significantly correlated with banana fly abundance. Abundance of the fly was significantly correlated (albeit weakly) with host availability. The same analysis was done with four other PNG pest fruit flies and their responses to the environmental factors differed to banana fly and each other. This implies that subsequent PRA analyses for other PNG fresh commodities will need to investigate the risk of each of these flies independently. To quantify the damage to banana fruit caused by banana fly in PNG, local surveys and one national survey of banana fruit infestation were carried out. Contrary to expectations, infestation was found to be very low, particularly in the widely grown commercial cultivar, Cavendish. Infestation of Cavendish fingers was only 0.41% in a structured, national survey of over 2 700 banana fingers. Follow up laboratory studies showed that fingers of Cavendish, and another commercial variety Lady-finger, are very poor hosts for B. musae, with very low host selection rates by female flies and very poor immature survival. An analysis of a recent (within last decade) incursion of B. musae into the Gazelle Peninsula of East New Britain Province, PNG, provided the final set of B. musae data. Surveys of the fly on the peninsular showed that establishment and spread of the fly in the novel environment was very rapid and thus the fly should be regarded as being of high biosecurity concern, at least in tropical areas. Supporting the earlier impact studies, however, banana fly has not become a significant banana fruit problem on the Gazelle, despite bananas being the primary starch staple of the region. The results of the research chapters are combined in the final Discussion in the form of a B. musae focused PRA for PNG banana fruit. Putting the thesis in a broader context, the Discussion also deals with the apparent discrepancy between high local abundance of banana fly and very low infestation rates. This discussion focuses on host utilisation patterns of specialist herbivores and suggests that local pest abundance, as determined by trapping or monitoring, need not be good surrogate for crop damage, despite this linkage being implicit in a number of international phytosanitary protocols.

Socially responsible investment in market downturns : implications for the fiduciary responsibilities of investment fund trustees

This paper investigates whether Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) is more or less sensitive to market downturns than conventional investment, and examines the legal implications for fund managers and trustees. Using a market model methodology, we find that over the past 15 years, the beta risk of SRI, both in Australia and internationally, increased more than that of conventional investment during economic downturns. This implies that companies acting as fund trustees, managed investment schemes and traditional institutional fund managers risk breaching their fiduciary or statutory duties if they go long - or remain long - in SRI funds during market downturns, unless perhaps relevant legislation is reformed. If reform is viewed as desirable, possible reforms could include explicitly overriding the common law to allow all traditional funds to invest in SRI; granting immunity to directors of trustee companies from potential personal liability under sections 197 or 588G et seq of the Corporations Act; allowing companies acting as trustees, managed investment schemes and traditional institutional fund managers and trustees to invest in SRI without triggering a substantial capital gains tax liability through trust resettlement; tax concessions for SRI (eg. introducing a 150% tax deduction or investment allowance for SRI); and allowing SRI sub-funds to obtain “deductible gift recipient” status or the equivalent from relevant taxation authorities. The research is important and original insofar as the assessment of risk in SRIs during market downturns is an area which has hitherto not been subjected to rigorous empirical investigation, despite its serious legal implications.

Marketing VM services to achieve competitive advantage in the Malaysian Construction Sector

Value Management (VM) has been proven to provide a structured framework, together with supporting tools and techniques that facilitate effective decision-making in many types of projects, thus achieving ‘best value’ for clients. It is identified at International level as a natural career progression for the construction service provider and as an opportunity in developing leading-edge skills. The services offered by contractors and consultants in the construction sector have been expanding. In an increasingly competitive and global marketplace, firms are seeking ways to differentiate their services to ever more knowledgeable and demanding clients. The traditional demarcations have given way, and the old definition of what contractors, designers, engineers and quantity surveyors can, and cannot do in terms of their market offering has changed. Project management, design and cost and safety consultancy services, are being delivered by a diverse range of suppliers. Value management services have been developing in various sectors in industry; from manufacturing to the military and now construction. Given the growing evidence that VM has been successful in delivering value-for-money to the client, VM would appear to be gaining some momentum as an essential management tool in the Malaysian construction sector. The recently issued VM Circular 3/2009 by the Economic Planning Unit Malaysia (EPU) possibly marks a new beginning in public sector client acceptance on the strength of VM in construction. This paper therefore attempts to study the prospects of marketing the benefits of VM by construction service providers, and how it may provide an edge in an increasingly competitive Malaysian construction industry.

Money laundering and FATF compliance by the international community

This paper examines the anti-money laundering systems of Australia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States of America (USA), the extent to which they have implemented the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) recommendations, and how compliance with these recommendations is affected by local cultural and economic factors. The paper makes use of FATF evaluation reports to compare the countries’ compliance; it examines some of the underlying cultural considerations and culture-specific ethical issues that affect the extent of compliance, and how cultural and ethical considerations may affect good governance. The findings indicate that the UK and the USA are the most advanced with regards to their compliance with the FATF recommendations and Australia and the UAE less so. The UAE is in particular found to be least compliant. We relate this finding to previous work on how a country’s legal and financial systems develop in line with its religion, culture and socio-economic situation, and examine how such local factors have affected the UAE’s financial and anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) systems. This research will be of interest to policy-makers and government agencies involved in addressing money laundering and its successful detection and prosecution.