A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

MAP kinase pathways in UV-induced apoptosis of retinal pigment epithelium ARPE19 cells.

The retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) is constantly exposed to external injuries which lead to degeneration, dysfunction or loss of RPE cells. The balance between RPE cells death and proliferation may be responsible for several diseases of the underlying retina, including age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR). Signaling pathways able to control cells proliferation or death usually involve the MAPK (mitogen-activated protein kinases) pathways, which modulate the activity of transcription factors by phosphorylation. UV exposure induces DNA breakdown and causes cellular damage through the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) leading to programmed cell death. In this study, human retinal pigment epithelial cells ARPE19 were exposed to 100 J/m(2) of UV-C and MAPK pathways were studied. We first showed the expression of the three major MAPK pathways. Then we showed that activator protein-1 (AP-1) was activated through phosphorylation of cJun and cFos, induced by JNK and p38, respectively. Specific inhibitors of both kinases decreased their respective activities and phosphorylation of their nuclear targets (cJun and cFos) and reduced UV-induced cell death. The use of specific kinases inhibitors may provide excellent tools to prevent RPE apoptosis specifically in RPE diseases involving ROS and other stress-related compounds such as in AMD.

Helical tomotherapy or intensity-modulated radiation therapy in the treatment of anal cancer: experience of Geneva and Lausanne

Background: To assess the early clinical outcomes and toxicities in patients treated with high precision radiation therapy (RT) consisting of helical tomotherapy (HT) or intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for anal cancer. Materials and Methods: Since March 2006, 30 patients with stage I-IIIB anal squamous-cell carcinoma were treated curatively by IMRT or HT alone (n = 2) or by concomitant chemotherapy and IMRT or HT (n = 28). Median age was 59 years (range, 36−83 years) and the female/male ratio was 2.3 (21/9). Primary tumor site was anal canal, anal margin, or both in 26, 1, and 3 patients, respectively. Anal tumor, pelvic and inguinal nodes were irradiated with a median dose of 36 Gy using HT, or 5- or 7-field IMRT in 18 and 12 patients, respectively; After a planned gap of 1−2 weeks (median 1 week), a median boost dose of 23.4 Gwas delivered to the tumor and/or involved nodes using 3DRT (n = 24) or HT/IMRT (n = 6). The total delivered dose ranged between 59.4 and 64.8 Gy (median, 59.4 Gy). Concomitant chemotherapy consisted of mitomycin C alone (n = 1), mitomycin C and 5-fluorouracil (n = 17) or capecitabin (n = 10) in 28 patients. Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v3.0 scale was used to score acute and late toxicities. Results: All but one patient, who developed progressive local and distant disease at the end of RT, achieved a complete response. Twelve months following RT, one patient had a recurrence at the primary tumor site, salvaged with brachytherapy. After a median follow-up of 7.5 months (range, 1−35 months), no deaths were observed. The 2-year actuarial locoregional control and probability of disease control without colostomy rates were 82% and 79%, respectively. RT was well tolerated without any unplanned treatment interruptions. Grade 1 or 2 acute adverse events consisted of skin toxicity in 8 and 22 patients, diarrhea in 18 and 3 patients, and cystitis in 9 and 2 patients; respectively. Only one patient developed grade 3 mucosal necrosis at the end of the treatment, requiring diverting colostomy. No difference in terms of acute toxicity was observed between patients treated with HT or IMRT. None of the 22 patients with a follow-up of more than 3 months developed grade 3 or more late toxicity. Conclusions: Our preliminary results suggest that HT or IMRT combined with concomitant chemotherapy for anal cancer is effective, and associated with favorable rates of toxicity compared with historical series. Further follow-up is warranted to assess late toxicity.

Simultaneous B(0)- and B(1)+-map acquisition for fast localized shim, frequency, and RF power determination in the heart at 3 T.

High-field (>or=3 T) cardiac MRI is challenged by inhomogeneities of both the static magnetic field (B(0)) and the transmit radiofrequency field (B(1)+). The inhomogeneous B fields not only demand improved shimming methods but also impede the correct determination of the zero-order terms, i.e., the local resonance frequency f(0) and the radiofrequency power to generate the intended local B(1)+ field. In this work, dual echo time B(0)-map and dual flip angle B(1)+-map acquisition methods are combined to acquire multislice B(0)- and B(1)+-maps simultaneously covering the entire heart in a single breath hold of 18 heartbeats. A previously proposed excitation pulse shape dependent slice profile correction is tested and applied to reduce systematic errors of the multislice B(1)+-map. Localized higher-order shim correction values including the zero-order terms for frequency f(0) and radiofrequency power can be determined based on the acquired B(0)- and B(1)+-maps. This method has been tested in 7 healthy adult human subjects at 3 T and improved the B(0) field homogeneity (standard deviation) from 60 Hz to 35 Hz and the average B(1)+ field from 77% to 100% of the desired B(1)+ field when compared to more commonly used preparation methods.

Polytene chromosome map and inversion polymorphism in Drosophila mediopunctata

Drosophila mediopunctata belongs to the tripunctata group, and is one of the commonest Drosophila species collected in some places in Brazil, especially in the winter. A standard map of the polytene chromosomes is presented. The breakpoints of the naturally occurring chromosomal rearrangements are marked on the map. The distribution of breaking points through the chromosomes of D. mediopunctata is apparently non-random. Chromosomes X, II and IV show inversion polymorphisms. Chromosome II is the most polymorphic, with 17 inversions, 8 inversions in the distal region and 9 in the proximal region. Chromosome X has four different gene arrangements, while chromosome IV has only two.

Evaluation of organ-specific peripheral doses after 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer based on Monte Carlo and convolution/superposition algorithms: implications for secondary cancer risk assessment.

To make a comprehensive evaluation of organ-specific out-of-field doses using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for different breast cancer irradiation techniques and to compare results with a commercial treatment planning system (TPS). Three breast radiotherapy techniques using 6MV tangential photon beams were compared: (a) 2DRT (open rectangular fields), (b) 3DCRT (conformal wedged fields), and (c) hybrid IMRT (open conformal+modulated fields). Over 35 organs were contoured in a whole-body CT scan and organ-specific dose distributions were determined with MC and the TPS. Large differences in out-of-field doses were observed between MC and TPS calculations, even for organs close to the target volume such as the heart, the lungs and the contralateral breast (up to 70% difference). MC simulations showed that a large fraction of the out-of-field dose comes from the out-of-field head scatter fluence (>40%) which is not adequately modeled by the TPS. Based on MC simulations, the 3DCRT technique using external wedges yielded significantly higher doses (up to a factor 4-5 in the pelvis) than the 2DRT and the hybrid IMRT techniques which yielded similar out-of-field doses. In sharp contrast to popular belief, the IMRT technique investigated here does not increase the out-of-field dose compared to conventional techniques and may offer the most optimal plan. The 3DCRT technique with external wedges yields the largest out-of-field doses. For accurate out-of-field dose assessment, a commercial TPS should not be used, even for organs near the target volume (contralateral breast, lungs, heart).

Distinct ASIC currents are expressed in rat putative nociceptors and are modulated by nerve injury.

The H(+)-gated acid-sensing ion channels (ASICs) are expressed in dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurones. Studies with ASIC knockout mice indicated either a pro-nociceptive or a modulatory role of ASICs in pain sensation. We have investigated in freshly isolated rat DRG neurones whether neurones with different ASIC current properties exist, which may explain distinct cellular roles, and we have investigated ASIC regulation in an experimental model of neuropathic pain. Small-diameter DRG neurones expressed three different ASIC current types which were all preferentially expressed in putative nociceptors. Type 1 currents were mediated by ASIC1a homomultimers and characterized by steep pH dependence of current activation in the pH range 6.8-6.0. Type 3 currents were activated in a similar pH range as type 1, while type 2 currents were activated at pH < 6. When activated by acidification to pH 6.8 or 6.5, the probability of inducing action potentials correlated with the ASIC current density. Nerve injury induced differential regulation of ASIC subunit expression and selective changes in ASIC function in DRG neurones, suggesting a complex reorganization of ASICs during the development of neuropathic pain. In summary, we describe a basis for distinct cellular functions of different ASIC types in small-diameter DRG neurones.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Cloning and characterization of a V-ATPase subunit C from the American visceral leishmaniasis vector Lutzomyia longipalpis modulated during development and blood ingestion

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a serious tropical disease that affects approximately 500 thousand people worldwide every year. In the Americas, VL is caused by the parasite Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi mainly transmitted by the bite of the sand fly vector Lutzomyia longipalpis. Despite recent advances in the study of interaction between Leishmania and sand flies, very little is known about sand fly protein expression profiles. Understanding how the expression of proteins may be affected by blood feeding and/or presence of parasite in the vector's midgut might allow us to devise new strategies for controlling the spread of leishmaniasis. In this work, we report the characterization of a vacuolar ATPase subunit C from L. longipalpis by screening of a midgut cDNA library with a 220 bp fragment identified by means of differential display reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction analysis. The expression of the gene varies along insect development and is upregulated in males and bloodfed L. longipalpis, compared to unfed flies.

Unpacking the cognitive map: the parallel map theory of hippocampal function

In the parallel map theory, the hippocampus encodes space with 2 mapping systems. The bearing map is constructed primarily in the dentate gyrus from directional cues such as stimulus gradients. The sketch map is constructed within the hippocampus proper from positional cues. The integrated map emerges when data from the bearing and sketch maps are combined. Because the component maps work in parallel, the impairment of one can reveal residual learning by the other. Such parallel function may explain paradoxes of spatial learning, such as learning after partial hippocampal lesions, taxonomic and sex differences in spatial learning, and the function of hippocampal neurogenesis. By integrating evidence from physiology to phylogeny, the parallel map theory offers a unified explanation for hippocampal function.

Rac2 GTPase activation by angiotensin II is modulated by Ca2C/calcineurin and mitogen-activated protein kinases in human neutrophils

Angiotensin II (Ang II) highly stimulates superoxide anion production by neutrophils. The G-protein Rac2 modulates the activity of NADPH oxidase in response to various stimuli. Here, we describe that Ang II induced both Rac2 translocation from the cytosol to the plasma membrane and Rac2 GTP-binding activity. Furthermore, Clostridium difficile toxin A, an inhibitor of the Rho-GTPases family Rho, Rac and Cdc42, prevented Ang II-elicited O2-/ROS production, phosphorylation of the mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) p38, extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2) and c-Jun N-terminal kinase 1/2, and Rac2 activation. Rac2 GTPase inhibition by C. difficile toxin A was accompanied by a robust reduction of the cytosolic Ca(2)(+) elevation induced by Ang II in human neutrophils. Furthermore, SB203580 and PD098059 act as inhibitors of p38MAPK and ERK1/2 respectively, wortmannin, an inhibitor of phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase, and cyclosporin A, a calcineurin inhibitor, hindered both translocation of Rac2 from the cytosol to the plasma membrane and enhancement of Rac2 GTP-binding elicited by Ang II. These results provide evidence that the activation of Rac2 by Ang II is exerted through multiple signalling pathways, involving Ca(2)(+)/calcineurin and protein kinases, the elucidation of which should be insightful in the design of new therapies aimed at reversing the inflammation of vessel walls found in a number of cardiovascular diseases.

Helical tomotherapy (HT) for the treatment of anal canal cancer: preliminary clinical results, and dosimetric comparison between HT and intensity-modulated or 3D conformal radiotherapy

Background: To report a single-center experience in 19 patients (pts) with anal canal cancer treated with helical tomotherapy (HT) and concurrent chemotherapy, and compare the dosimetric results with fixed-field intensitymodulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and 3D conformal radiotherapy (3D RT). Materials and Methods: Between 2007 and 2008, 19 consecutive pts were treated with HT and concurrent CT for anal canal cancer. Median age was 59 years (range, 38−83), and female/male ratio was 14/5. The majority of the pts had T2 or T3 tumours (68.4%), and 52.6% had positive lymph nodes. In all 19 pts, pelvic and inguinal nodes, and tumour irradiation was given using HT upto a median dose of 36 Gy (1.8 Gy/fr) followed by a 1-week gap. A boost dose of 23.4 Gy (1.8 Gy/fr) was delivered to the tumour and involved nodes using 3DRT (n = 12), HT (n = 6), or IMRT (n = 1). Simultaneous integrated boost was used in none of the pts. All but one patient with a T1N0 tumour received concomitant mitomycin/5- fluorouracil (n = 12) or mitomycin/capecitabin (n = 7) CT. Toxicity was scored according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (NCICTCAE v3.0). HT plans and treatments were generated using Tomotherapy, Inc., software and hardware; and 3D or IMRT boost plans with the CMS treatment planning system (TPS), using 6−18 MV photons from a Siemens Primus accelerator. For dosimetric comparison, computed tomography data sets of 10 pts were imported into the TPS, and 3D and 5-field step-andshoot IMRT plans were generated for each case. Plans were optimized with the aim of assessing organs at risk (OAR) and healthy-tissue sparing while enforcing highly conformal target coverage, and evaluated by dose-volume histograms (DVH) of planning target volumes (PTV) and OAR. Results: With a median follow-up of 13 months (range, 3−18), all pts are alive and well; except one patient developing local recurrence at 12 months. No patient developed grade 3 or more acute toxicity. No unplanned treatment interruption was necessary because of toxicity. With 360-degree-of-freedom beam projection, HT showed an advantage over 3D or IMRT plans in terms of dose conformity around the PTV, and dose gradients were steeper outside the PTV, resulting in reduced doses to OARs. Using HT, acute toxicity was acceptable, and seemed to be better than historical standards. Conclusion: We conclude that HT combined with concurrent chemotherapy for anal canal cancer is effective and tolerable. Compared to 3DRT or 5-field IMRT, there is better conformity around the PTV, and OAR sparing.

Fas ligand-induced proinflammatory transcriptional responses in reconstructed human epidermis. Recruitment of the epidermal growth factor receptor and activation of MAP kinases.

Fas ligand (FasL) exerts potent proapoptotic and proinflammatory actions on epidermal keratinocytes and has been implicated in the pathogenesis of eczema, toxic epidermal necrolysis, and drug-induced skin eruptions. We used reconstructed human epidermis to investigate the mechanisms of FasL-induced inflammatory responses and their relationships with FasL-triggered caspase activity. Caspase activity was a potent antagonist of the pro-inflammatory gene expression triggered by FasL prior to the onset of cell death. Furthermore, we found that FasL-stimulated autocrine production of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) ligands, and the subsequent activation of EGFR and ERK1 and ERK2 mitogen-activated protein kinases, were obligatory extracellular steps for the FasL-induced expression of a subset of inflammatory mediators, including CXCL8/interleukin (IL)-8, ICAM-1, IL-1alpha, IL-1beta, CCL20/MIP-3alpha, and thymic stromal lymphopoietin. These results expand the known physiological role of EGFR and its ligands from promoting keratinocyte mitogenesis and survival to mediating FasL-induced epidermal inflammation.