Travel time prediction on signalised urban arterials by applying SARIMA modelling on Bluetooth data

Travel time prediction has long been the topic of transportation research. But most relevant prediction models in the literature are limited to motorways. Travel time prediction on arterial networks is challenging due to involving traffic signals and significant variability of individual vehicle travel time. The limited availability of traffic data from arterial networks makes travel time prediction even more challenging. Recently, there has been significant interest of exploiting Bluetooth data for travel time estimation. This research analysed the real travel time data collected by the Brisbane City Council using the Bluetooth technology on arterials. Databases, including experienced average daily travel time are created and classified for approximately 8 months. Thereafter, based on data characteristics, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modelling is applied on the database for short-term travel time prediction. The SARMIA model not only takes the previous continuous lags into account, but also uses the values from the same time of previous days for travel time prediction. This is carried out by defining a seasonality coefficient which improves the accuracy of travel time prediction in linear models. The accuracy, robustness and transferability of the model are evaluated through comparing the real and predicted values on three sites within Brisbane network. The results contain the detailed validation for different prediction horizons (5 min to 90 minutes). The model performance is evaluated mainly on congested periods and compared to the naive technique of considering the historical average.

Tracking structural development through data modelling in highly able Grade 1 students

A 3-year longitudinal study Transforming Children’s Mathematical and Scientific Development integrates, through data modelling, a pedagogical approach focused on mathematical patterns and structural relationships with learning in science. As part of this study, a purposive sample of 21 highly able Grade 1 students was engaged in an innovative data modelling program. In the majority of students, representational development was observed. Their complex graphs depicting categorical and continuous data revealed a high level of structure and enabled identification of structural features critical to this development.

Exchanging data between Digital Human Modelling systems : a review of data formats

Digital human modeling (DHM) systems underwent significant development within the last years. They achieved constantly growing importance in the field of ergonomic workplace design, product development, product usability, ergonomic research, ergonomic education, audiovisual marketing and the entertainment industry. They help to design ergonomic products as well as healthy and safe socio-technical work systems. In the domain of scientific DHM systems, no industry specific standard interfaces are defined which could facilitate the exchange of 3D solid body data, anthropometric data or motion data. The focus of this article is to provide an overview of requirements for a reliable data exchange between different DHM systems in order to identify suitable file formats. Examples from the literature are discussed in detail. Methods: As a first step a literature review is conducted on existing studies and file formats for exchanging data between different DHM systems. The found file formats can be structured into different categories: static 3D solid body data exchange, anthropometric data exchange, motion data exchange and comprehensive data exchange. Each file format is discussed and advantages as well as disadvantages for the DHM context are pointed out. Case studies are furthermore presented, which show first approaches to exchange data between DHM systems. Lessons learnt are shortly summarized. Results: A selection of suitable file formats for data exchange between DHM systems is determined from the literature review.

Promoting Statistical Literacy Through Data Modelling in the Early School Years

This chapter addresses data modelling as a means of promoting statistical literacy in the early grades. Consideration is first given to the importance of increasing young children’s exposure to statistical reasoning experiences and how data modelling can be a rich means of doing so. Selected components of data modelling are then reviewed, followed by a report on some findings from the third-year of a three-year longitudinal study across grades one through three.

Managing Research Data: Mechanical testing and modelling of bone-implant constructs

Presentation by Dr Caroline Grant, Science & Engineering Faculty, IHBI, at Managing your research data seminar, 2012

Spatio-temporal modelling of cancer data in Queensland using Bayesian methods

Cancer is the leading contributor to the disease burden in Australia. This thesis develops and applies Bayesian hierarchical models to facilitate an investigation of the spatial and temporal associations for cancer diagnosis and survival among Queenslanders. The key objectives are to document and quantify the importance of spatial inequalities, explore factors influencing these inequalities, and investigate how spatial inequalities change over time. Existing Bayesian hierarchical models are refined, new models and methods developed, and tangible benefits obtained for cancer patients in Queensland. The versatility of using Bayesian models in cancer control are clearly demonstrated through these detailed and comprehensive analyses.

Modelling the distribution and relative abundance of feral camels in the Northern Territory using count data

The objectives of this study were to predict the potential distribution, relative abundance and probability of habitat use by feral camels in southern Northern Territory. Aerial survey data were used to model habitat association. The characteristics of ‘used’ (where camels were observed) v. ‘unused’ (pseudo-absence) sites were compared. Habitat association and abundance were modelled using generalised additive model (GAM) methods. The models predicted habitat suitability and the relative abundance of camels in southern Northern Territory. The habitat suitability maps derived in the present study indicate that camels have suitable habitat in most areas of southern Northern Territory. The index of abundance model identified areas of relatively high camel abundance. Identifying preferred habitats and areas of high abundance can help focus control efforts.

The importance of modelling heterogeneity in complex disease: application to NIMH Schizophrenia Genetics Initiative data

As for other complex diseases, linkage analyses of schizophrenia (SZ) have produced evidence for numerous chromosomal regions, with inconsistent results reported across studies. The presence of locus heterogeneity appears likely and may reduce the power of linkage analyses if homogeneity is assumed. In addition, when multiple heterogeneous datasets are pooled, inter-sample variation in the proportion of linked families (alpha) may diminish the power of the pooled sample to detect susceptibility loci, in spite of the larger sample size obtained. We compare the significance of linkage findings obtained using allele-sharing LOD scores (LOD(exp))-which assume homogeneity-and heterogeneity LOD scores (HLOD) in European American and African American NIMH SZ families. We also pool these two samples and evaluate the relative power of the LOD(exp) and two different heterogeneity statistics. One of these (HLOD-P) estimates the heterogeneity parameter alpha only in aggregate data, while the second (HLOD-S) determines alpha separately for each sample. In separate and combined data, we show consistently improved performance of HLOD scores over LOD(exp). Notably, genome-wide significant evidence for linkage is obtained at chromosome 10p in the European American sample using a recessive HLOD score. When the two samples are combined, linkage at the 10p locus also achieves genome-wide significance under HLOD-S, but not HLOD-P. Using HLOD-S, improved evidence for linkage was also obtained for a previously reported region on chromosome 15q. In linkage analyses of complex disease, power may be maximised by routinely modelling locus heterogeneity within individual datasets, even when multiple datasets are combined to form larger samples.

Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

Assimilation of remote sensing and hydrological data using adaptive filtering techniques for watershed modelling

The knowledge of hydrological variables (e. g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration) are of pronounced importance in various applications including flood control, agricultural production and effective water resources management. These applications require the accurate prediction of hydrological variables spatially and temporally in watershed/basin. Though hydrological models can simulate these variables at desired resolution (spatial and temporal), often they are validated against the variables, which are either sparse in resolution (e. g. soil moisture) or averaged over large regions (e. g. runoff). A combination of the distributed hydrological model (DHM) and remote sensing (RS) has the potential to improve resolution. Data assimilation schemes can optimally combine DHM and RS. Retrieval of hydrological variables (e. g. soil moisture) from remote sensing and assimilating it in hydrological model requires validation of algorithms using field studies. Here we present a review of methodologies developed to assimilate RS in DHM and demonstrate the application for soil moisture in a small experimental watershed in south India.

Real Estate Investment and Uncertainty: Econometric Modelling using Finnish Data

The purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of uncertainty in a model of real estate investment in Finland during the hihhly cyclical period of 1975 to 1998. We use two alternative measures of uncertainty. The first measure is the volatility of stock market returns and the second measure is the heterogeneity in the answers of the quarterly business survey of the Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers. The econometric analysis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model and the paper applies a 'general-to-specific' modelling approach. We find that the measure of heterogeneity is significant in the model, but the volatility of stock market returns is not. The empirical results give some evidence of an uncertainty-induced threshold slowing down real estate investment in Finland.

Bounds on the Lifetime of Wireless Sensor Networks Employing Multiple Data Sinks

Employing multiple base stations is an attractive approach to enhance the lifetime of wireless sensor networks. In this paper, we address the fundamental question concerning the limits on the network lifetime in sensor networks when multiple base stations are deployed as data sinks. Specifically, we derive upper bounds on the network lifetime when multiple base stations are employed, and obtain optimum locations of the base stations (BSs) that maximize these lifetime bounds. For the case of two BSs, we jointly optimize the BS locations by maximizing the lifetime bound using a genetic algorithm based optimization. Joint optimization for more number of BSs is complex. Hence, for the case of three BSs, we optimize the third BS location using the previously obtained optimum locations of the first two BSs. We also provide simulation results that validate the lifetime bounds and the optimum locations of the BSs.

Enhancing lifetime of wireless sensor networks using multiple data sinks

In this paper, we address the fundamental question concerning the limits on the network lifetime in sensor networks when multiple base stations (BSs) are deployed as data sinks. Specifically, we derive upper bounds on the network lifetime when multiple BSs arc employed, and obtain optimum locations of the base stations that maximise these lifetime bounds. For the case of two BSs, we jointly optimise the BS locations by maximising the lifetime bound using genetic algorithm. Joint optimisation for more number of BSs becomes prohibitively complex. Further, we propose a suboptimal approach for higher number of BSs, Individually Optimum method, where we optimise the next BS location using optimum location of previous BSs. Individually Optimum method has advantage of being attractive for solving the problem with more number of BSs at the cost of little compromised accuracy. We show that accuracy degradation is quite small for the case of three BSs.