Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species

Aim Identifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important to accurately predict the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non-native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large-scale multi-species studies, but such large-scale tests are lacking for non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors contributing to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non-native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a worldwide scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts. Location The world except the Antarctic. Methods We assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space allowing the quantification of niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range. We analyzed the factors affecting niche shifts using a model averaging approach based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results Approximately 57% of the invaded ranges (51% for amphibians and 61% for reptiles) showed niche shifts (≥10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographic realm showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range. Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non-native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non-native plants and European non-native birds. The 'climate matching hypothesis' should be used with caution for species shifting their niche because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.

Epidemiology of Masked and White-Coat Hypertension: The Family-Based SKIPOGH Study.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated factors associated with masked and white-coat hypertension in a Swiss population-based sample. METHODS: The Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension is a family-based cross-sectional study. Office and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure were measured using validated devices. Masked hypertension was defined as office blood pressure<140/90 mmHg and daytime ambulatory blood pressure≥135/85 mmHg. White-coat hypertension was defined as office blood pressure≥140/90 mmHg and daytime ambulatory blood pressure<135/85 mmHg. Mixed-effect logistic regression was used to examine the relationship of masked and white-coat hypertension with associated factors, while taking familial correlations into account. High-normal office blood pressure was defined as systolic/diastolic blood pressure within the 130-139/85-89 mmHg range. RESULTS: Among the 652 participants included in this analysis, 51% were female. Mean age (±SD) was 48 (±18) years. The proportion of participants with masked and white coat hypertension was respectively 15.8% and 2.6%. Masked hypertension was associated with age (odds ratio (OR) = 1.02, p = 0.012), high-normal office blood pressure (OR = 6.68, p<0.001), and obesity (OR = 3.63, p = 0.001). White-coat hypertension was significantly associated with age (OR = 1.07, p<0.001) but not with education, family history of hypertension, or physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that physicians should consider ambulatory blood pressure monitoring for older individuals with high-normal office blood pressure and/or who are obese.

Is use of nifurtimox for the treatment of Chagas disease compatible with breast feeding? A population pharmacokinetics analysis.

Introduction Women with Chagas disease receiving treatment with nifurtimox are discouraged from breast feeding. Many patients who would receive treatment with nifurtimox live in extreme poverty, have limited access to resources such as clean water and baby formula and may not have safe alternatives to breast milk. Aim We aimed to estimate, using limited available pharmacokinetics data, potential infant exposure to nifurtimox through breast milk. Methods Original nifurtimox plasma concentrations were obtained from published studies. Pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated using non-linear mixed-effect modelling with NONMEM V.VI. A total of 1000 nifurtimox plasma-concentration profiles were simulated and used to calculate the amount of drug that an infant would be exposed to, if breast fed 150 ml/kg/day. Results Breast milk concentrations on the basis of peak plasma levels (1361 ng/ml) and milk-plasma ratio were estimated. We calculated infant nifurtimox exposure of a breastfed infant of a mother treated with this drug to be below 10% of the maternal weight-adjusted dose, even if milk-plasma ratio were overestimated. Simulation led to similar estimates. Discussion Risk for significant infant exposure to nifurtimox through breast milk seems small and below the level of exposure of infants with Chagas disease receiving nifurtimox treatment. This potential degree of exposure may not justify discontinuation of breast feeding.

Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic assessment of valganciclovir in solid organ transplant recipients

RESUME : Valganciclovir (Valcyte®) is an orally administered ester prodrug of the standard anticytomegalovirus (CMV) drug ganciclovir. This drug enabled an important reduction of the burden of CMV morbidity and mortality in solid organ transplant recipients. Prevention of CMV infection and treatment of CMV disease requires drug administration during many weeks. Oral drug administration is therefore convenient. Valganciclovir has been developed to overcome the poor oral availability of ganciclovir, which limits its concentration exposure after oral administration and thus its efficacy. This prodrug crosses efficiently the intestinal barrier, is then hydrolyzed into ganciclovir, providing exposure similar to intravenous ganciclovir. Valganciclovir is now preferred for the prophylaxis and treatment of CMV infection in solid organ transplant recipients. Nevertheless, adequate dosage adjustment is necessary to optimize its use, avoiding either insufficient or exaggerate exposure related to differences in its pharmacokinetic profile between patients. The main goal of this thesis was to better describe the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profile of valganciclovir in solid organ transplant recipients, to assess their reproducibility and their predictability, and thus to evaluate the current recommendations for valganciclovir dosage adjustment and the potential contribution of routine therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) to patients' management. A total of 437 ganciclovir plasma concentration data from 65 transplant patients (41 kidney, 12 lung, 10 heart and 2 liver recipients, 58 under oral valganciclovir prophylaxis, 8 under oral valganciclovir treatment and 2 under intravenous ganciclovir) were measured using a validated chromatographic method (HPLC) developed for this study. The results were analyzed by non-linear mixed effect modeling (NONMEM). A two-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data. Systemic clearance was markedly influenced by GFR, with further differences between graft types and sex (CL/GFR = 1.7 in kidney, 0.9 in heart and 1.2 in lung and liver recipients) with interpatient variability (CV%) of 26% and interoccasion variability of 12%. Body weight and sex influenced central volume of distribution (V1 = 0.34 l/kg in males and 0.27 l/kg in females) with an interpatient variability of 20%. Residual intrapatient variability was 21 %. No significant drug interaction influenced GCV disposition. VGC prophylactic efficacy and tolerability were good, without detectable dependence on GCV profile. In conclusion, this analysis highlights the importance of thorough adjustment of VGC dosage to renal function and body weight. Considering the good predictability and reproducibility of GCV profile after oral VGC in solid organ transplant recipients, routine TDM does not appear to be clinically indicated. However, GCV plasma measurement may still be helpful in specific clinical situations such as documentation of appropriate exposure in patients with potentially compromised absorption, or lack of response to CMV disease treatment, or under renal replacement therapy. RESUME : Le valganciclovir (Valcyte®) est un promédicament oral du ganciclovir qui est un anti-infectieux de référence contre les infections à cytomegalovirus (CMV). Cet antiviral a permis de réduire les effets délétères de cette infection jusqu'ici responsable d'une importante morbidité et mortalité chez les transplantés d'organe. La prévention et le traitement de l'infection à CMV sont donc nécessaires mais requièrent l'administration d'un agent antiviral sur une longue période. Un médicament administré par voie orale représente donc un avantage évident. Le valganciclovir a été développé dans le but d'améliorer la faible absorption orale du ganciclovir, et donc son efficacité. Cet ester valylique du ganciclovir traverse plus facilement la barrière gastro-intestinale, puis est hydrolysé en ganciclovir dans la circulation sanguine, produisant une exposition comparable à celle d'une perfusion intraveineuse de ganciclovir. De ce fait, le valganciclovir est devenu largement utilisé pour la prophylaxie mais aussi le traitement de l'infection à CMV. Néanmoins une utilisation optimale de ce nouveau médicament nécessite de bonnes connaissances sur son profil pharmacocinétique afin d'établir un schéma de dose adapté pour éviter tant une surexposition qu'une sous-exposition résultant des différences d'élimination entre les patients. Le but de cette thèse a été d'étudier le profil pharmacocinétique et pharmacodynamique du valganciclovir chez les transplantés d'organe ainsi que sa reproductibilité et sa prédictibilité. Il s'agissait d'apprécier de manière critique le schéma actuellement recommandé pour l'adaptation des doses de valganciclovir, mais aussi la contribution éventuelle d'un suivi des concentrations sanguines en routine. Un total de 437 taux sanguins de ganciclovir ont été mesurés, provenant de 65 patients transplantés d'organe (41 rénaux, 12 pulmonaires, 10 cardiaques et 2 hépatiques, 58 sous une prophylaxie orale de valganciclovir, 8 sous un traitement de valganciclovir et 2 sous un traitement intraveineux). Une méthode de chromatographie liquide à haute performance a été développée et validée pour cette étude. Les résultats ont été ensuite analysés par modélisation non linéaire à effets mixtes (NONMEM). Un modèle à deux compartiments avec absorption de premier ordre a permis de décrire les données. La clairance systémique était principalement influencée par le débit de filtration glomérulaire (GFR), avec une différence entre les types de greffe et les sexes (CL/GFR = 1.7 chez les greffés rénaux, 0.9 pour les greffés cardiaques et 1.2 pour le groupe des greffés pulmonaires et hépatiques) avec un variabilité inter-individuelle de 26% (CV%) et une variabilité inter-occasion de 12%. Le poids corporel ainsi que le sexe avaient une influence sur le volume central de distribution (V1 = 0.34 l/kg chez les hommes et 0.27 l/kg chez les femmes) avec une variabilité inter-individuelle de 20%. La variabilité intra-individuelle résiduelle était de 21 %. Aucune interaction médicamenteuse n'a montré d'influence sur le profil du ganciclovir. La prophylaxie avec le valganciclovir s'est révélée efficace et bien tolérée. En conclusion, cette analyse souligne l'importance d'une adaptation de la dose du valganciclovir à la fonction rénale et au poids du patient. Au vu de la bonne reproductibilité et prédictibilité du profil pharmacocinétique du ganciclovir chez les patients transplantés recevant du valganciclovir, un suivi des concentrations sanguines en routine ne semble pas cliniquement indiqué. Néanmoins, la mesure des taux plasmatiques de ganciclovir peut être utile dans certaines situations particulières, comme la vérification d'une exposition appropriée chez des patients susceptibles d'absorption insuffisante, ou ne répondant pas au traitement d'une infection à CMV ou encore sous épuration extra-rénale. RESUME LARGE PUBLIC : Le valganciclovir est un précurseur capable de libérer du ganciclovir, récemment développé pour améliorer la faible absorption orale de ce dernier. Une fois le valganciclovir absorbé, le ganciclovir libéré dans la circulation sanguine devient efficace contre les infections à cytomégalovirus. Ce virus largement répandu est responsable de maladies insidieuses et parfois graves chez les personnes présentant une baisse des défenses immunitaires, comme les greffés d'organe recevant un traitement anti-rejet. Le ganciclovir est administré pendant plusieurs mois consécutifs soit pour prévenir une infection après la transplantation, soit pour traiter une infection déclarée. La facilité d'administration du valganciclovir par voie orale représente un avantage sur une administration du ganciclovir par perfusion, qui nécessite une hospitalisation. Toutefois, la voie orale peut être une source supplémentaire de variabilité chez les patients, avec un impact potentiel sur l'efficacité ou la toxicité du médicament. Le but de cette étude a été - de décrire le devenir de ce médicament dans le corps humain (dont l'étude relève de la discipline de la pharmacocinétique) - de définir les facteurs cliniques pouvant expliquer les différences de concentration sanguine observées entre les patients sous une posologie donnée - d'explorer les relations entre les concentrations du médicament dans le sang et son efficacité ou la survenue d'effets indésirables (dont l'étude relève de la discipline de la pharmacodynamie). Cette étude a nécessité le développement et la validation, d'une méthode d'analyse pour mesurer la concentration sanguine du ganciclovir, puis son application à 437 échantillons provenant de 65 patients transplantés d'organe solide (41 rénaux, 12 pulmonaires, 10 cardiaques et 2 hépatiques) recevant du valganciclovir. Les résultats des mesures effectuées ont été analysés à l'aide d'un outil mathématique afin d'élaborer un modèle du devenir du médicament dans le sang chez chaque patient et à chaque occasion. Cette étude a permis d'évaluer chez des patients recevant le valganciclovir, la vitesse à laquelle l'organisme absorbe, distribue, puis élimine le médicament. La vitesse d'élimination dépendait étroitement de la fonction rénale, du type de greffe et du sexe alors que la distribution dépendait du poids et du sexe du patient. La variabilité non expliquée par ces facteurs cliniques était modérée et vraisemblablement sans conséquence clinique évidente soit sur l'efficacité ou la tolérance, qui se révèlent très satisfaisantes chez les patients de l'étude. Les observations n'ont pas révélé de relation entre les concentrations de médicament et l'efficacité thérapeutique ou la survenue d'effets indésirables, confirmant que les doses relativement faibles utilisées dans notre collectif de patients suffisaient à produire une exposition reproductible à des concentrations adéquates. En conclusion, le profil (et par conséquent l'absorption) du valganciclovir chez les patients transplantés semble bien prédictible après une adaptation de la dose à la fonction rénale et au poids du patient. Un contrôle systématique des concentrations sanguines n'est probablement pas indiqué en routine, mais cette mesure peut présenter un intérêt dans certaines conditions particulières.

Genetic associations in the detection of QTLs for wheat spike-related traits

The objective of this work was to assess the genetic diversity and population structure of wheat genotypes, to detect significant and stable genetic associations, as well as to evaluate the efficiency of statistical models to identify chromosome regions responsible for the expression of spike-related traits. Eight important spike characteristics were measured during five growing seasons in Serbia. A set of 30 microsatellite markers positioned near important agronomic loci was used to evaluate genetic diversity, resulting in a total of 349 alleles. The marker-trait associations were analyzed using the general linear and mixed linear models. The results obtained for number of allelic variants per locus (11.5), average polymorphic information content value (0.68), and average gene diversity (0.722) showed that the exceptional level of polymorphism in the genotypes is the main requirement for association studies. The population structure estimated by model-based clustering distributed the genotypes into six subpopulations according to log probability of data. Significant and stable associations were detected on chromosomes 1B, 2A, 2B, 2D, and 6D, which explained from 4.7 to 40.7% of total phenotypic variations. The general linear model identified a significantly larger number of marker-trait associations (192) than the mixed linear model (76). The mixed linear model identified nine markers associated to six traits.

Imatinib plasma concentrations variability in hemato-oncologic patients

Abstract Imatinib (Glivec~ has transformed the treatment and prognosis of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) and of gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST). However, the treatment must be taken indefinitely and is not devoid of inconvenience and toxicity. Moreover, resistance or escape from disease control occurs. Considering the large interindividual differences in the function of the enzymatic and transport systems involved in imatinib disposition, exposure to this drug can be expected to vary widely among patients. Among those known systems is a cytochrome P450 (CYI'3A4) that metabolizes imatinib, the multidrug transporter P-glycoprotein (P-gp; product of the MDR1 gene) that expels imatinib out of cells, and al-acid glycoprotein (AGP), a circulating protein binding imatinib in the plasma. The aim of this observational study was to explore the influence of these covariates on imatinib pharmacokinetics (PK), to assess the interindividual variability of the PK parameters of the drug, and to evaluate whether imatinib use would benefit from a therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) program. A total of 321 plasma concentrations were measured in 59 patients receiving imatinib, using a validated chromatographic method developed for this study (HPLC-LTV). The results were analyzed by non-linear mixed effect modeling (NONMEM). A one-compartment pharmacokinetic model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data, and a large interindividual variability was observed. The MDK> polymorphism 3435C>T and the CYP3A4 activity appeared to modulate the disposition of imatinib, albeit not significantly. A hyperbolic relationship between plasma AGP levels and oral clearance, as well as volume of distribution, was observed. A mechanistic approach was built up, postulating that only the unbound imatinib concentration was able to undergo first-order elimination. This approach allowed determining an average free clearance (CL,~ of 13101/h and a volume of distribution (Vd) of 301 1. By comparison, the total clearance determined was 141/h (i.e. 233 ml/min). Free clearance was affected by body weight and pathology diagnosis. The estimated variability of imatinib disposition (17% for CLu and 66% for Vd) decreased globally about one half with the model incorporating the AGP impact. Moreover, some associations were observed between PK parameters of the free imatinib concentration and its efficacy and toxicity. Finally, the functional influence of P-gp activity has been demonstrated in vitro in cell cultures. These elements are arguments to further investigate the possible usefulness of a TDM program for imatinib. It may help in individualizing the dosing regimen before overt disease progression or development of treatment toxicity, thus improving both the long-term therapeutic effectiveness and tolerability of this drug. Résumé L'imatinib (Glivec ®) a révolutionné le traitement et le pronostic de la leucémie myéloïde chronique (LMC) et des tumeurs stromales d'origine digestive (GIST). Il s'agit toutefois d'un traitement non dénué d'inconvénients et de toxicité, et qui doit être pris indéfiniment. Par ailleurs, une résistance, ou des échappements au traitement, sont également rencontrés. Le devenir de ce médicament dans l'organisme dépend de systèmes enzymatiques et de transport connus pour présenter de grandes différences interindividuelles, et l'on peut s'attendre à ce que l'exposition à ce médicament varie largement d'un patient à l'autre. Parmi ces systèmes, on note un cytochrome P450 (le CYP3A4) métabolisant l'imatinib, la P-glycoprotéine (P-gp ;codée par le gène MDR1), un transporteur d'efflux expulsant le médicament hors des cellules, et l'atglycoprotéine acide (AAG), une protéine circulante sur laquelle se fixe l'imatinib dans le plasma. L'objectif de la présente étude clinique a été de déterminer l'influence de ces covariats sur la pharmacocinétique (PK) de l'imatinib, d'établir la variabilité interindividuelle des paramètres PK du médicament, et d'évaluer dans quelle mesure l'imatinib pouvait bénéficier d'un programme de suivi thérapeutique (TDM). En utilisant une méthode chromatographique développée et validée à cet effet (HPLC-UV), un total de 321 concentrations plasmatiques a été dosé chez 59 patients recevant de l'imatinib. Les résultats ont été analysés par modélisation non linéaire à effets mixtes (NONMEM). Un modèle pharmacocinétique à un compartiment avec absorption de premier ordre a permis de décrire les données, et une grande variabilité interindividuelle a été observée. Le polymorphisme du gène MDK1 3435C>T et l'activité du CYP3A4 ont montré une influence, toutefois non significative, sur le devenir de l'imatinib. Une relation hyperbolique entre les taux plasmatiques d'AAG et la clairance, comme le volume de distribution, a été observée. Une approche mécanistique a donc été élaborée, postulant que seule la concentration libre subissait une élimination du premier ordre. Cette approche a permis de déterminer une clairance libre moyenne (CLlibre) de 13101/h et un volume de distribution (Vd) de 301 l. Par comparaison, la clairance totale était de 141/h (c.à.d. 233 ml/min). La CLlibre est affectée par le poids corporel et le type de pathologie. La variabilité interindividuelle estimée pour le devenir de l'imatinib (17% sur CLlibre et 66% sur Vd) diminuait globalement de moitié avec le modèle incorporant l'impact de l'AAG. De plus, une certaine association entre les paramètres PK de la concentration d'imatinib libre et l'efficacité et la toxicité a été observée. Finalement, l'influence fonctionnelle de l'activité de la P-gp a été démontrée in nitro dans des cultures cellulaires. Ces divers éléments constituent des arguments pour étudier davantage l'utilité potentielle d'un programme de TDM appliqué à l'imatinib. Un tel suivi pourrait aider à l'individualisation des régimes posologiques avant la progression manifeste de la maladie ou l'apparition de toxicité, améliorant tant l'efficacité que la tolérabilité de ce médicament. Résumé large public L'imatinib (un médicament commercialisé sous le nom de Glivec ®) a révolutionné le traitement et le pronostic de deux types de cancers, l'un d'origine sanguine (leucémie) et l'autre d'origine digestive. Il s'agit toutefois d'un traitement non dénué d'inconvénients et de toxicité, et qui doit être pris indéfiniment. De plus, des résistances ou des échappements au traitement sont également rencontrés. Le devenir de ce médicament dans le corps humain (dont l'étude relève de la discipline appelée pharmacocinétique) dépend de systèmes connus pour présenter de grandes différences entre les individus, et l'on peut s'attendre à ce que l'exposition à ce médicament varie largement d'un patient à l'autre. Parmi ces systèmes, l'un est responsable de la dégradation du médicament dans le foie (métabolisme), l'autre de l'expulsion du médicament hors des cellules cibles, alors que le dernier consiste en une protéine (dénommée AAG) qui transporte l'imatinib dans le sang. L'objectif de notre étude a été de déterminer l'influence de ces différents systèmes sur le comportement pharmacocinétique de l'imatinib chez les patients, et d'étudier dans quelle mesure le devenir de ce médicament dans l'organisme variait d'un patient à l'autre. Enfin, cette étude avait pour but d'évaluer à quel point la surveillance des concentrations d'imatinib présentes dans le sang pourrait améliorer le traitement des patients cancéreux. Une telle surveillance permet en fait de connaître l'exposition effective de l'organisme au médicament (concept abrégé par le terme anglais TDM, pour Therapeutic Drag Monitoring. Ce projet de recherche a d'abord nécessité la mise au point d'une méthode d'analyse pour la mesure des quantités (ou concentrations) d'imatinib présentes dans le sang. Cela nous a permis d'effectuer régulièrement des mesures chez 59 patients. Il nous a ainsi été possible de décrire le devenir du médicament dans le corps à l'aide de modèles mathématiques. Nous avons notamment pu déterminer chez ces patients la vitesse à laquelle l'imatinib est éliminé du sang et l'étendue de sa distribution dans l'organisme. Nous avons également observé chez les patients que les concentrations sanguines d'imatinib étaient très variables d'un individu à l'autre pour une même dose de médicament ingérée. Nous avons pu aussi mettre en évidence que les concentrations de la protéine AAG, sur laquelle l'imatinib se lie dans le sang, avait une grande influence sur la vitesse à laquelle le médicament est éliminé de l'organisme. Ensuite, en tenant compte des concentrations sanguines d'imatinib et de cette protéine, nous avons également pu calculer les quantités de médicament non liées à cette protéine (= libres), qui sont seules susceptibles d'avoir une activité anticancéreuse. Enfin, il a été possible d'établir qu'il existait une certaine relation entre ces concentrations, l'effet thérapeutique et la toxicité du traitement. Tous ces éléments constituent des arguments pour approfondir encore l'étude de l'utilité d'un programme de TDM appliqué à l'imatinib. Comme chaque patient est différent, un tel suivi pourrait aider à l'ajustement des doses du médicament avant la progression manifeste de la maladie ou l'apparition de toxicité, améliorant ainsi tant son efficacité que son innocuité.

Evolución de la mortalidad por cáncer de mama y diseminación de la mamografía de cribado en Cataluña: un análisis por regiones sanitarias

Fundamento: El descenso de las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de mama (CM) se ha atribuido a la implantación de programas de cribado y a avances terapéuticos. El objetivo de este trabajo es comparar la evolución de su mortalidad en las regiones sanitarias de Cataluña en el periodo 1993-2007. Paralelamente, se ha analizado la diseminación de la mamografía periódica en las regiones sanitarias. Métodos: Se analizaron los datos del registro de mortalidad y encuestas de salud. Se utilizaron regresiones de Poisson y «joinpoint» para comparar las tasas de mortalidad por CM y analizar su evolución temporal. Se utilizaron modelos de efectos mixtos para comparar el nivel y la evolución de la mortalidad por regiones. Resultados. La tasa de mortalidad por CM descendió un 3% anual en Cataluña. Entre 1993 y 2007, la tasa estandarizada varió de 34,8 a 23,3 por 100.000 mujeres. Barcelona ciutat presentó unas tasas de mortalidad más elevadas que las regiones Centre (ratio de tasas (RT)=0,87), Costa de Ponent (RT=0,89), Tarragona (RT=0,9) y Lleida (RT=0,915), pero estas diferencias tendieron a desaparecer. No se observaron cambios de tendencia en la evolución de la mortalidad de las regiones, excepto en la región Centre. Durante los años 1990 Barcelona ciutat presentó unos porcentajes de utilización de mamografía periódica del 36,1% de las mujeres de 40-74 años, en la encuesta de 1994, la región Centre (23,7%) y Costa de Ponent (25,2%). Conclusiones: La progresiva utilización de mamografía periódica y la disminución de la mortalidad por CM fueron similares en las regiones sanitarias de Cataluña.

Differential growth responses to water balance of coexisting deciduous tree species are linked to wood density in a Bolivian tropical dry forest

A seasonal period of water deficit characterizes tropical dry forests (TDFs). There, sympatric tree species exhibit a diversity of growth rates, functional traits, and responses to drought, suggesting that each species may possess different strategies to grow under different conditions of water availability. The evaluation of the long-term growth responses to changes in the soil water balance should provide an understanding of how and when coexisting tree species respond to water deficit in TDFs. Furthermore, such differential growth responses may be linked to functional traits related to water storage and conductance. We used dendrochronology and climate data to retrospectively assess how the radial growth of seven coexisting deciduous tree species responded to the seasonal soil water balance in a Bolivian TDF. Linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the relationships between basal area increment and seasonal water balance. We related these relationships with wood density and sapwood production to assess if they affect the growth responses to climate. The growth of all species responded positively to water balance during the wet season, but such responses differed among species as a function of their wood density. For instance, species with a strong growth response to water availability averaged a low wood density which may facilitate the storage of water in the stem. By contrast, species with very dense wood were those whose growth was less sensitive to water availability. Coexisting tree species thus show differential growth responses to changes in soil water balance during the wet season. Our findings also provide a link between wood density, a trait related to the ability of trees to store water in the stem, and wood formation in response to water availability.

Olanzapine or chlorpromazine plus lithium in first episode psychotic mania: An 8-week randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Treatment strategies for mental disorders may vary according to illness stage. However no data currently exist to guide treatment in first episode psychotic mania. The aim of this study was to compare the safety and efficacy profile of chlorpromazine and olanzapine, as add-on to lithium, in patients with a first episode of psychotic mania, expecting better safety profile and adherence to olanzapine but similar efficacy for both treatments. METHODS: Data from 83 patients were collected in an 8-week randomised controlled trial on clinical variables, side effects, vital signs, and weight. Analyses of treatment differences over time were based on intent-to-treat principles. Kaplan-Meier estimated survival curves were used to analyse time-to-event data and mixed effects models repeated measures analysis of variance were used to determine treatment group differences over time on safety and efficacy measures. RESULTS: Ethics committee approval to delay informed consent procedure until recovery from the acute episode allowed the inclusion of 83 patients highly representative of those treated in the public sector. Contrary to our hypotheses, safety profile of both medications was similar. A signal for higher rate (P=.032) and earlier occurrence (P=.043) of mania remission was observed in the olanzapine group which did not survive correction for multiple comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: Olanzapine and chlorpromazine have a similar safety profile in a uniquely representative cohort of patients with first episode psychotic mania. The possibility for a greater impact of olanzapine on manic symptoms leading to earlier remission of the episode needs exploration in a large sample.

Genetics-Based Population Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Risperidone in a Psychiatric Cohort.

BACKGROUND: High interindividual variability in plasma concentrations of risperidone and its active metabolite, 9-hydroxyrisperidone, may lead to suboptimal drug concentration. OBJECTIVE: Using a population pharmacokinetic approach, we aimed to characterize the genetic and non-genetic sources of variability affecting risperidone and 9-hydroxyrisperidone pharmacokinetics, and relate them to common side effects. METHODS: Overall, 150 psychiatric patients (178 observations) treated with risperidone were genotyped for common polymorphisms in NR1/2, POR, PPARα, ABCB1, CYP2D6 and CYP3A genes. Plasma risperidone and 9-hydroxyrisperidone were measured, and clinical data and common clinical chemistry parameters were collected. Drug and metabolite concentrations were analyzed using non-linear mixed effect modeling (NONMEM(®)). Correlations between trough concentrations of the active moiety (risperidone plus 9-hydroxyrisperidone) and common side effects were assessed using logistic regression and linear mixed modeling. RESULTS: The cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2D6 phenotype explained 52 % of interindividual variability in risperidone pharmacokinetics. The area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) of the active moiety was found to be 28 % higher in CYP2D6 poor metabolizers compared with intermediate, extensive and ultrarapid metabolizers. No other genetic markers were found to significantly affect risperidone concentrations. 9-hydroxyrisperidone elimination was decreased by 26 % with doubling of age. A correlation between trough predicted concentration of the active moiety and neurologic symptoms was found (p = 0.03), suggesting that a concentration >40 ng/mL should be targeted only in cases of insufficient, or absence of, response. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic polymorphisms of CYP2D6 play an important role in risperidone, 9-hydroxyrisperidone and active moiety plasma concentration variability, which were associated with common side effects. These results highlight the importance of a personalized dosage adjustment during risperidone treatment.

A new model for the population pharmacokinetics of didanosine in healthy subjects

Didanosine (ddI) is a component of highly active antiretroviral therapy drug combinations, used especially in resource-limited settings and in zidovudine-resistant patients. The population pharmacokinetics of ddI was evaluated in 48 healthy volunteers enrolled in two bioequivalence studies. These data, along with a set of co-variates, were the subject of a nonlinear mixed-effect modeling analysis using the NONMEM program. A two-compartment model with first order absorption (ADVAN3 TRANS3) was fitted to the serum ddI concentration data. Final pharmacokinetic parameters, expressed as functions of the co-variates gender and creatinine clearance (CL CR), were: oral clearance (CL = 55.1 + 240 x CL CR + 16.6 L/h for males and CL = 55.1 + 240 x CL CR for females), central volume (V2 = 9.8 L), intercompartmental clearance (Q = 40.9 L/h), peripheral volume (V3 = 62.7 + 22.9 L for males and V3 = 62.7 L for females), absorption rate constant (Ka = 1.51/h), and dissolution time of the tablet (D = 0.43 h). The intraindividual (residual) variability expressed as coefficient of variation was 13.0%, whereas the interindividual variability of CL, Q, V3, Ka, and D was 20.1, 75.8, 20.6, 18.9, and 38.2%, respectively. The relatively high (>30%) interindividual variability for some of these parameters, observed under the controlled experimental settings of bioequivalence trials in healthy volunteers, may result from genetic variability of the processes involved in ddI absorption and disposition.

Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

GLS Detrending, Efficient Unit Root Tests and Structural Change

We extend the class of M-tests for a unit root analyzed by Perron and Ng (1996) and Ng and Perron (1997) to the case where a change in the trend function is allowed to occur at an unknown time. These tests M(GLS) adopt the GLS detrending approach of Dufour and King (1991) and Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996) (ERS). Following Perron (1989), we consider two models : one allowing for a change in slope and the other for both a change in intercept and slope. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests as well as that of the feasible point optimal tests PT(GLS) suggested by ERS. The asymptotic critical values of the tests are tabulated. Also, we compute the non-centrality parameter used for the local GLS detrending that permits the tests to have 50% asymptotic power at that value. We show that the M(GLS) and PT(GLS) tests have an asymptotic power function close to the power envelope. An extensive simulation study analyzes the size and power in finite samples under various methods to select the truncation lag for the autoregressive spectral density estimator. An empirical application is also provided.

Simulation-Based Finite-and Large-sample Inference Methods in Multivariate Regressions and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions

In the context of multivariate regression (MLR) and seemingly unrelated regressions (SURE) models, it is well known that commonly employed asymptotic test criteria are seriously biased towards overrejection. in this paper, we propose finite-and large-sample likelihood-based test procedures for possibly non-linear hypotheses on the coefficients of MLR and SURE systems.

The FCLT with Dependent Errors: an Helicopter Tour of the Quality of the Approximation

This note investigates the adequacy of the finite-sample approximation provided by the Functional Central Limit Theorem (FCLT) when the errors are allowed to be dependent. We compare the distribution of the scaled partial sums of some data with the distribution of the Wiener process to which it converges. Our setup is purposely very simple in that it considers data generated from an ARMA(1,1) process. Yet, this is sufficient to bring out interesting conclusions about the particular elements which cause the approximations to be inadequate in even quite large sample sizes.