The determinants of local population growth: a study of Oxfordshire in the nineteenth century

This paper presents a new econometric model for analysing population growth at the village and town level. It develops and applies a theory of the equilibrium distribution of population over space. The theory emphasises geographical fundamentals, such as rivers as transport corridors, and soil types that govern agricultural specialisation; also institutional factors such as town government, market charters and the concentration of land ownership. Nineteenth century Oxfordshire is used as a case study, but the method can also be applied at a multi-county and national level. The results show that the development of railways in nineteenth-century Oxfordshire accelerated a long-term shake-out in the market system, whereby rural markets disappeared and urban markets grew. This shake-out had significant implications for population growth at the local level.

A global quantitative synthesis of local and landscape effects on wild bee pollinators in agroecosystems

Bees provide essential pollination services that are potentially affected both by local farm management and the surrounding landscape. To better understand these different factors, we modelled the relative effects of landscape composition (nesting and floral resources within foraging distances), landscape configuration (patch shape, interpatch connectivity and habitat aggregation) and farm management (organic vs. conventional and local-scale field diversity), and their interactions, on wild bee abundance and richness for 39 crop systems globally. Bee abundance and richness were higher in diversified and organic fields and in landscapes comprising more high-quality habitats; bee richness on conventional fields with low diversity benefited most from high-quality surrounding land cover. Landscape configuration effects were weak. Bee responses varied slightly by biome. Our synthesis reveals that pollinator persistence will depend on both the maintenance of high-quality habitats around farms and on local management practices that may offset impacts of intensive monoculture agriculture.

Doing more harm than good? Community based natural resource management and the neglect of local institutions in policy development

Approaches to natural resource management emphasise the importance of involving local people and institutions in order to build capacity, limit costs, and achieve environmental sustainability. Governments worldwide, often encouraged by international donors, have formulated devolution policies and legal instruments that provide an enabling environment for devolved natural resource management. However, implementation of these policies reveals serious challenges. This article explores the effects of limited involvement of local people and institutions in policy development and implementation. An in-depth study of the Forest Policy of Malawi and Village Forest Areas in the Lilongwe district provides an example of externally driven policy development which seeks to promote local management of natural resources. The article argues that policy which has weak ownership by national government and does not adequately consider the complexity of local institutions, together with the effects of previous initiatives on them, can create a cumulative legacy through which destructive resource use practices and social conflict may be reinforced. In short, poorly developed and implemented community based natural resource management policies can do considerably more harm than good. Approaches are needed that enable the policy development process to embed an in-depth understanding of local institutions whilst incorporating flexibility to account for their location-specific nature. This demands further research on policy design to enable rigorous identification of positive and negative institutions and ex-ante exploration of the likely effects of different policy interventions.

Balanced excitation and inhibition: Model based analysis of local field potentials

We have developed a model of the local field potential (LFP) based on the conservation of charge, the independence principle of ionic flows and the classical Hodgkin–Huxley (HH) type intracellular model of synaptic activity. Insights were gained through the simulation of the HH intracellular model on the nonlinear relationship between the balance of synaptic conductances and that of post-synaptic currents. The latter is dependent not only on the former, but also on the temporal lag between the excitatory and inhibitory conductances, as well as the strength of the afferent signal. The proposed LFP model provides a method for decomposing the LFP recordings near the soma of layer IV pyramidal neurons in the barrel cortex of anaesthetised rats into two highly correlated components with opposite polarity. The temporal dynamics and the proportional balance of the two components are comparable to the excitatory and inhibitory post-synaptic currents computed from the HH model. This suggests that the two components of the LFP reflect the underlying excitatory and inhibitory post-synaptic currents of the local neural population. We further used the model to decompose a sequence of evoked LFP responses under repetitive electrical stimulation (5 Hz) of the whisker pad. We found that as neural responses adapted, the excitatory and inhibitory components also adapted proportionately, while the temporal lag between the onsets of the two components increased during frequency adaptation. Our results demonstrated that the balance between neural excitation and inhibition can be investigated using extracellular recordings. Extension of the model to incorporate multiple compartments should allow more quantitative interpretations of surface Electroencephalography (EEG) recordings into components reflecting the excitatory, inhibitory and passive ionic current flows generated by local neural populations.

The outsourcing strategy of local and multinational firms: A supply base perspective

Firms outsource through connecting to local and global supply bases and making such connections produces costs of search and evaluation, which are a function of transaction characteristics and firm capabilities. We argue that firms outsource more when those costs are low. Hence, domestic subsidiaries of multinational firms, with low cost access to both local and global supply bases, outsource more than either domestic firms or foreign subsidiaries, as confirmed by evidence from a large data panel. We also propose that among foreign subsidiaries, distance from the home country co-determines search and evaluation costs such that subsidiaries from more distant countries outsource less. This is confirmed for geographic distance, but a positive effect is found for political distance and a mixed effect for cultural distance.

Insiders, outsiders, and the role of local enforcement in forest management: an example from Tanzania

In low-income countries, both nearby local villagers, “insiders”, and non-locals, “outsiders”, extract products from protected forests even though their actions are illegal. Forest managers typically combine enforcement and livelihood projects offered to nearby communities to reduce this illegal activity, but with limited budgets cannot deter all extraction. We develop a game theoretic model of a forest manager's decision interacting with the extraction decisions of insiders and outsiders. Our analysis suggests that, depending on the relative ecological damage caused by each group, budget-constrained forest managers may reduce total forest degradation by legalizing “insider” extraction in return for local villagers' involvement in enforcement activities against outsiders.

Switchable amplification of vibrational circular dichroism as a probe of local chiral structure

A new method to detect the vibrational circular dichroism (VCD) of a localized part of a chiral molecular system is reported. A local VCD amplifier was implemented, and the distance dependence of the amplification was investigated in a series of peptides. The results indicate a characteristic distance of 2.0±0.3 bonds, which suggests that the amplification is a localized phenomenon. The amplifier can be covalently coupled to a specific part of a molecule, and can be switched ON and OFF electrochemically. By subtracting the VCD spectra obtained when the amplifier is in the ON and OFF states, the VCD of the local environment of the amplifier can be separated from the total VCD spectrum. Switchable local VCD amplification thus makes it possible to “zoom in” on a specific part of a chiral molecule.

An assessment of the impact of local processes on dust lifting in martian climate models

Simulation of the lifting of dust from the planetary surface is of substantially greater importance on Mars than on Earth, due to the fundamental role that atmospheric dust plays in the former’s climate, yet the dust emission parameterisations used to date in martian global climate models (MGCMs) lag, understandably, behind their terrestrial counterparts in terms of sophistication. Recent developments in estimating surface roughness length over all martian terrains and in modelling atmospheric circulations at regional to local scales (less than O(100 km)) presents an opportunity to formulate an improved wind stress lifting parameterisation. We have upgraded the conventional scheme by including the spatially varying roughness length in the lifting parameterisation in a fully consistent manner (thereby correcting a possible underestimation of the true threshold level for wind stress lifting), and used a modification to account for deviations from neutral stability in the surface layer. Following these improvements, it is found that wind speeds at typical MGCM resolution never reach the lifting threshold at most gridpoints: winds fall particularly short in the southern midlatitudes, where mean roughness is large. Sub-grid scale variability, manifested in both the near-surface wind field and the surface roughness, is then considered, and is found to be a crucial means of bridging the gap between model winds and thresholds. Both forms of small-scale variability contribute to the formation of dust emission ‘hotspots’: areas within the model gridbox with particularly favourable conditions for lifting, namely a smooth surface combined with strong near-surface gusts. Such small-scale emission could in fact be particularly influential on Mars, due both to the intense positive radiative feedbacks that can drive storm growth and a strong hysteresis effect on saltation. By modelling this variability, dust lifting is predicted at the locations at which dust storms are frequently observed, including the flushing storm sources of Chryse and Utopia, and southern midlatitude areas from which larger storms tend to initiate, such as Hellas and Solis Planum. The seasonal cycle of emission, which includes a double-peaked structure in northern autumn and winter, also appears realistic. Significant increases to lifting rates are produced for any sensible choices of parameters controlling the sub-grid distributions used, but results are sensitive to the smallest scale of variability considered, which high-resolution modelling suggests should be O(1 km) or less. Use of such models in future will permit the use of a diagnosed (rather than prescribed) variable gustiness intensity, which should further enhance dust lifting in the southern hemisphere in particular.

The role of local atmospheric forcing on the modulation of the ocean mixed layer depth in reanalysis and a coupled single column ocean model

The role of the local atmospheric forcing on the ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) over the global oceans is studied using ocean reanalysis data products and a single-column ocean model coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model. The focus of this study is on how the annual mean and the seasonal cycle of the MLD relate to various forcing characteristics in different parts of the world's ocean, and how anomalous variations in the monthly mean MLD relate to anomalous atmospheric forcings. By analysing both ocean reanalysis data and the single-column ocean model, regions with different dominant forcings and different mean and variability characteristics of the MLD can be identified. Many of the global oceans' MLD characteristics appear to be directly linked to different atmospheric forcing characteristics at different locations. Here, heating and wind-stress are identified as the main drivers; in some, mostly coastal, regions the atmospheric salinity forcing also contributes. The annual mean MLD is more closely related to the annual mean wind-stress and the MLD seasonality is more closely to the seasonality in heating. The single-column ocean model, however, also points out that the MLD characteristics over most global ocean regions, and in particular the tropics and subtropics, cannot be maintained by local atmospheric forcings only, but are also a result of ocean dynamics that are not simulated in a single-column ocean model. Thus, lateral ocean dynamics are essentially in correctly simulating observed MLD.

Realising the cup product of local Tate duality

We present an explicit description, in terms of central simple algebras, of a cup product map which occurs in the statement of local Tate duality for Galois modules of prime cardinality p. Given cocycles f and g, we construct a central simple algebra of dimension p^2 whose class in the Brauer group gives the cup product f\cup g. This algebra is as small as possible.

A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

Habitat Split as a Cause of Local Population Declines of Amphibians with Aquatic Larvae

Most amphibian species have biphasic life histories and undergo an ontogenetic shift from aquatic to terrestrial habitats. In deforested landscapes, streams and forest fragments are frequently disjunct, jeopardizing the life cycle of forest-associated amphibians with aquatic larvae. We tested the impact of habitat split-defined as human-induced disconnection between habitats used by different life-history stages of a species-on four forest-associated amphibian species in a severely fragmented landscape of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We surveyed amphibians in forest fragments with and without streams (referred to as wet and dry fragments, respectively), including the adjacent grass-field matrix. Our comparison of capture rates in dry fragments and nearby streams in the matrix allowed us to evaluate the number of individuals that engaged in high-risk migrations through nonforested habitats. Adult amphibians moved from dry fragments to matrix streams at the beginning of the rainy season, reproduced, and returned at the end of the breeding period. Juveniles of the year moved to dry fragments along with adults. These risky reproductive migrations through nonforested habitats that expose individuals to dehydration, predation, and other hazards may cause population declines in dry fragments. Indeed, capture rates were significantly lower in dry fragments compared with wet fragments. Declining amphibians would strongly benefit from investments in the conservation and restoration of riparian vegetation and corridors linking breeding and nonbreeding areas.