A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.

Filtering method in backlash phenomena analysis

The behavior of robotic manipulators with backlash is analyzed. Based on the pseudo-phase plane two indices are proposed to evaluate the backlash effect upon the robotic system: the root mean square error and the fractal dimension. For the dynamical analysis the noisy signals captured from the system are filtered through wavelets. Several tests are developed that demonstrate the coherence of the results.

Classification Performance of Multilayer Perceptrons with Different Risk Functionals

In the present paper we assess the performance of information-theoretic inspired risks functionals in multilayer perceptrons with reference to the two most popular ones, Mean Square Error and Cross-Entropy. The information-theoretic inspired risks, recently proposed, are: HS and HR2 are, respectively, the Shannon and quadratic Rényi entropies of the error; ZED is a risk reflecting the error density at zero errors; EXP is a generalized exponential risk, able to mimic a wide variety of risk functionals, including the information-thoeretic ones. The experiments were carried out with multilayer perceptrons on 35 public real-world datasets. All experiments were performed according to the same protocol. The statistical tests applied to the experimental results showed that the ubiquitous mean square error was the less interesting risk functional to be used by multilayer perceptrons. Namely, mean square error never achieved a significantly better classification performance than competing risks. Cross-entropy and EXP were the risks found by several tests to be significantly better than their competitors. Counts of significantly better and worse risks have also shown the usefulness of HS and HR2 for some datasets.

Previsão de diagramas de carga via Holt-Winters com três sazonalidades

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

In Situ Near-Infrared (NIR) Versus High-Throughput Mid- Infrared (MIR) Spectroscopy to Monitor Biopharmaceutical Production

The development of biopharmaceutical manufacturing processes presents critical constraints, with the major constraint being that living cells synthesize these molecules, presenting inherent behavior variability due to their high sensitivity to small fluctuations in the cultivation environment. To speed up the development process and to control this critical manufacturing step, it is relevant to develop high-throughput and in situ monitoring techniques, respectively. Here, high-throughput mid-infrared (MIR) spectral analysis of dehydrated cell pellets and in situ near-infrared (NIR) spectral analysis of the whole culture broth were compared to monitor plasmid production in recombinant Escherichia coil cultures. Good partial least squares (PLS) regression models were built, either based on MIR or NIR spectral data, yielding high coefficients of determination (R-2) and low predictive errors (root mean square error, or RMSE) to estimate host cell growth, plasmid production, carbon source consumption (glucose and glycerol), and by-product acetate production and consumption. The predictive errors for biomass, plasmid, glucose, glycerol, and acetate based on MIR data were 0.7 g/L, 9 mg/L, 0.3 g/L, 0.4 g/L, and 0.4 g/L, respectively, whereas for NIR data the predictive errors obtained were 0.4 g/L, 8 mg/L, 0.3 g/L, 0.2 g/L, and 0.4 g/L, respectively. The models obtained are robust as they are valid for cultivations conducted with different media compositions and with different cultivation strategies (batch and fed-batch). Besides being conducted in situ with a sterilized fiber optic probe, NIR spectroscopy allows building PLS models for estimating plasmid, glucose, and acetate that are as accurate as those obtained from the high-throughput MIR setup, and better models for estimating biomass and glycerol, yielding a decrease in 57 and 50% of the RMSE, respectively, compared to the MIR setup. However, MIR spectroscopy could be a valid alternative in the case of optimization protocols, due to possible space constraints or high costs associated with the use of multi-fiber optic probes for multi-bioreactors. In this case, MIR could be conducted in a high-throughput manner, analyzing hundreds of culture samples in a rapid and automatic mode.

Validation of NASA rotor 67 with openFOAM's transonic density-based solver

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Sistema de apoio à decisão clínica: quality of life system

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Preocupação com a forma do corpo de graduandos de Farmácia-Bioquímica

Objetivo Identificar a preocupação com a forma do corpo de estudantes de Farmácia-Bioquímica e sua relação com variáveis sociais e laborais e com o estado nutricional. Métodos Participaram 346 discentes com média de idade de 20,2 (DP = 2,4) anos, sendo 278 (80,3%) do sexo feminino. Utilizou-se o Body Shape Questionnaire (BSQ). As validades fatorial e convergente e a consistência interna (α) do BSQ foram estimadas. Utilizaram-se como índices de ajustamento o qui-quadrado pelos graus de liberdade (χ2/gl), o Comparative Fit Index (CFI), o Normed Fit Index (NFI) e o Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA). O escore médio de preocupação com a forma do corpo foi obtido por meio de algoritmo gerado na análise fatorial confirmatória. Para comparar os escores médios segundo as variáveis de interesse, utilizou-se Análise de Variância (ANOVA). Resultados O BSQ apresentou, para a amostra de estudo, adequada validade (χ2/gl = 3,29; CFI = 0,87, NFI = 0,82, RMSEA = 0,08) e confiabilidade (α = 0,97) após ajustamento. Verificou-se que as mulheres (p < 0,001) apresentaram maior preocupação com a forma do corpo que os homens. Além disso, os estudantes que avaliaram o curso como pior que as expectativas iniciais (p = 0,048), que consomem medicamentos por causa dos estudos (p < 0,001), que já pensaram em desistir do curso (p = 0,002) e foram classificados com sobrepeso/obesidade (p < 0,001) também apresentaram alta preocupação com a forma do corpo. Conclusão As varáveis sexo, avaliação em relação ao curso, ingestão de medicamentos por causa dos estudos, pensamento em desistir do curso e o estado nutricional apresentaram relação significativa com a preocupação com a forma do corpo entre os estudantes.

3-d residual eddy current field characterisation: applied to diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging.

Clinical use of the Stejskal-Tanner diffusion weighted images is hampered by the geometric distortions that result from the large residual 3-D eddy current field induced. In this work, we aimed to predict, using linear response theory, the residual 3-D eddy current field required for geometric distortion correction based on phantom eddy current field measurements. The predicted 3-D eddy current field induced by the diffusion-weighting gradients was able to reduce the root mean square error of the residual eddy current field to ~1 Hz. The model's performance was tested on diffusion weighted images of four normal volunteers, following distortion correction, the quality of the Stejskal-Tanner diffusion-weighted images was found to have comparable quality to image registration based corrections (FSL) at low b-values. Unlike registration techniques the correction was not hindered by low SNR at high b-values, and results in improved image quality relative to FSL. Characterization of the 3-D eddy current field with linear response theory enables the prediction of the 3-D eddy current field required to correct eddy current induced geometric distortions for a wide range of clinical and high b-value protocols.

Adaptively weighted maximum likelihood estimation of discrete distributions

SummaryDiscrete data arise in various research fields, typically when the observations are count data.I propose a robust and efficient parametric procedure for estimation of discrete distributions. The estimation is done in two phases. First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed and used to indentify outliers. Then the outliers are either removed from the sample or given low weights, and a weighted maximum likelihood estimate (WML) is computed.The weights are determined via an adaptive process such that if the data follow the model, then asymptotically no observation is downweighted.I prove that the final estimator inherits the breakdown point of the initial one, and that its influence function at the model is the same as the influence function of the maximum likelihood estimator, which strongly suggests that it is asymptotically fully efficient.The initial estimator is a minimum disparity estimator (MDE). MDEs can be shown to have full asymptotic efficiency, and some MDEs have very high breakdown points and very low bias under contamination. Several initial estimators are considered, and the performances of the WMLs based on each of them are studied.It results that in a great variety of situations the WML substantially improves the initial estimator, both in terms of finite sample mean square error and in terms of bias under contamination. Besides, the performances of the WML are rather stable under a change of the MDE even if the MDEs have very different behaviors.Two examples of application of the WML to real data are considered. In both of them, the necessity for a robust estimator is clear: the maximum likelihood estimator is badly corrupted by the presence of a few outliers.This procedure is particularly natural in the discrete distribution setting, but could be extended to the continuous case, for which a possible procedure is sketched.RésuméLes données discrètes sont présentes dans différents domaines de recherche, en particulier lorsque les observations sont des comptages.Je propose une méthode paramétrique robuste et efficace pour l'estimation de distributions discrètes. L'estimation est faite en deux phases. Tout d'abord, un estimateur très robuste des paramètres du modèle est calculé, et utilisé pour la détection des données aberrantes (outliers). Cet estimateur n'est pas nécessairement efficace. Ensuite, soit les outliers sont retirés de l'échantillon, soit des faibles poids leur sont attribués, et un estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance pondéré (WML) est calculé.Les poids sont déterminés via un processus adaptif, tel qu'asymptotiquement, si les données suivent le modèle, aucune observation n'est dépondérée.Je prouve que le point de rupture de l'estimateur final est au moins aussi élevé que celui de l'estimateur initial, et que sa fonction d'influence au modèle est la même que celle du maximum de vraisemblance, ce qui suggère que cet estimateur est pleinement efficace asymptotiquement.L'estimateur initial est un estimateur de disparité minimale (MDE). Les MDE sont asymptotiquement pleinement efficaces, et certains d'entre eux ont un point de rupture très élevé et un très faible biais sous contamination. J'étudie les performances du WML basé sur différents MDEs.Le résultat est que dans une grande variété de situations le WML améliore largement les performances de l'estimateur initial, autant en terme du carré moyen de l'erreur que du biais sous contamination. De plus, les performances du WML restent assez stables lorsqu'on change l'estimateur initial, même si les différents MDEs ont des comportements très différents.Je considère deux exemples d'application du WML à des données réelles, où la nécessité d'un estimateur robuste est manifeste : l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance est fortement corrompu par la présence de quelques outliers.La méthode proposée est particulièrement naturelle dans le cadre des distributions discrètes, mais pourrait être étendue au cas continu.

Optimum power allocation for parallel Gaussian channels with arbitrary input distributions

The mutual information of independent parallel Gaussian-noise channels is maximized, under an average power constraint, by independent Gaussian inputs whose power is allocated according to the waterfilling policy. In practice, discrete signalling constellations with limited peak-to-average ratios (m-PSK, m-QAM, etc) are used in lieu of the ideal Gaussian signals. This paper gives the power allocation policy that maximizes the mutual information over parallel channels with arbitrary input distributions. Such policy admits a graphical interpretation, referred to as mercury/waterfilling, which generalizes the waterfilling solution and allows retaining some of its intuition. The relationship between mutual information of Gaussian channels and nonlinear minimum mean-square error proves key to solving the power allocation problem.

Large-system analysis of a CDMA dynamic channel under a Markovian input process

We study the minimum mean square error (MMSE) and the multiuser efficiency η of large dynamic multiple access communication systems in which optimal multiuser detection is performed at the receiver as the number and the identities of active users is allowed to change at each transmission time. The system dynamics are ruled by a Markov model describing the evolution of the channel occupancy and a large-system analysis is performed when the number of observations grow large. Starting on the equivalent scalar channel and the fixed-point equation tying multiuser efficiency and MMSE, we extend it to the case of a dynamic channel, and derive lower and upper bounds for the MMSE (and, thus, for η as well) holding true in the limit of large signal–to–noise ratios and increasingly large observation time T.

Pedotransfer functions related to spatial variability of water retention attributes for lowland soils

The estimation of non available soil variables through the knowledge of other related measured variables can be achieved through pedotransfer functions (PTF) mainly saving time and reducing cost. Great differences among soils, however, can yield non desirable results when applying this method. This study discusses the application of developed PTFs by several authors using a variety of soils of different characteristics, to evaluate soil water contents of two Brazilian lowland soils. Comparisons are made between PTF evaluated data and field measured data, using statistical and geostatistical tools, like mean error, root mean square error, semivariogram, cross-validation, and regression coefficient. The eight tested PTFs to evaluate gravimetric soil water contents (Ug) at the tensions of 33 kPa and 1,500 kPa presented a tendency to overestimate Ug 33 kPa and underestimate Ug1,500 kPa. The PTFs were ranked according to their performance and also with respect to their potential in describing the structure of the spatial variability of the set of measured values. Although none of the PTFs have changed the distribution pattern of the data, all resulted in mean and variance statistically different from those observed for all measured values. The PTFs that presented the best predictive values of Ug33 kPa and Ug1,500 kPa were not the same that had the best performance to reproduce the structure of spatial variability of these variables.

Pedotransfer functions to estimate water retention parameters of soils in northeastern Brazil

Pedotransfer functions (PTF) were developed to estimate the parameters (α, n, θr and θs) of the van Genuchten model (1980) to describe soil water retention curves. The data came from various sources, mainly from studies conducted by universities in Northeast Brazil, by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) and by a corporation for the development of the São Francisco and Parnaíba river basins (Codevasf), totaling 786 retention curves, which were divided into two data sets: 85 % for the development of PTFs, and 15 % for testing and validation, considered independent data. Aside from the development of general PTFs for all soils together, specific PTFs were developed for the soil classes Ultisols, Oxisols, Entisols, and Alfisols by multiple regression techniques, using a stepwise procedure (forward and backward) to select the best predictors. Two types of PTFs were developed: the first included all predictors (soil density, proportions of sand, silt, clay, and organic matter), and the second only the proportions of sand, silt and clay. The evaluation of adequacy of the PTFs was based on the correlation coefficient (R) and Willmott index (d). To evaluate the PTF for the moisture content at specific pressure heads, we used the root mean square error (RMSE). The PTF-predicted retention curve is relatively poor, except for the residual water content. The inclusion of organic matter as a PTF predictor improved the prediction of parameter a of van Genuchten. The performance of soil-class-specific PTFs was not better than of the general PTF. Except for the water content of saturated soil estimated by particle size distribution, the tested models for water content prediction at specific pressure heads proved satisfactory. Predictions of water content at pressure heads more negative than -0.6 m, using a PTF considering particle size distribution, are only slightly lower than those obtained by PTFs including bulk density and organic matter content.

Lag-one autocorrelation in short series: Estimation and hypothesis testing

In the first part of the study, nine estimators of the first-order autoregressive parameter are reviewed and a new estimator is proposed. The relationships and discrepancies between the estimators are discussed in order to achieve a clear differentiation. In the second part of the study, the precision in the estimation of autocorrelation is studied. The performance of the ten lag-one autocorrelation estimators is compared in terms of Mean Square Error (combining bias and variance) using data series generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that there is not a single optimal estimator for all conditions, suggesting that the estimator ought to be chosen according to sample size and to the information available of the possible direction of the serial dependence. Additionally, the probability of labelling an actually existing autocorrelation as statistically significant is explored using Monte Carlo sampling. The power estimates obtained are quite similar among the tests associated with the different estimators. These estimates evidence the small probability of detecting autocorrelation in series with less than 20 measurement times.