Simplified method for including spatial correlations in mean-field approximations

Biological systems involving proliferation, migration and death are observed across all scales. For example, they govern cellular processes such as wound-healing, as well as the population dynamics of groups of organisms. In this paper, we provide a simplified method for correcting mean-field approximations of volume-excluding birth-death-movement processes on a regular lattice. An initially uniform distribution of agents on the lattice may give rise to spatial heterogeneity, depending on the relative rates of proliferation, migration and death. Many frameworks chosen to model these systems neglect spatial correlations, which can lead to inaccurate predictions of their behaviour. For example, the logistic model is frequently chosen, which is the mean-field approximation in this case. This mean-field description can be corrected by including a system of ordinary differential equations for pair-wise correlations between lattice site occupancies at various lattice distances. In this work we discuss difficulties with this method and provide a simplication, in the form of a partial differential equation description for the evolution of pair-wise spatial correlations over time. We test our simplified model against the more complex corrected mean-field model, finding excellent agreement. We show how our model successfully predicts system behaviour in regions where the mean-field approximation shows large discrepancies. Additionally, we investigate regions of parameter space where migration is reduced relative to proliferation, which has not been examined in detail before, and our method is successful at correcting the deviations observed in the mean-field model in these parameter regimes.

Genetic response to combined family selection for improved mean harvest weight in giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) in Vietnam

We estimated genetic changes in body and carcass weight traits in a giant freshwater prawn (GFP) (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) population selected for increased body weight at harvest in Vietnam. The data set consisted of 18,387 individual body and 1730 carcass weight records, as well as full pedigree information collected over four generations. Average selection response (per generation) in body weight at harvest (transformed to square root) estimated as the difference between the Selection line and the Control group was 7.4% calculated from least squares mean (LSMs), 7.0% from estimated breeding values (EBVs) and 4.4% calculated from EBVs between two consecutive generations. Favorable correlated selection responses (estimated from LSMs) were found for other body traits including: total length, cephalothorax length, abdominal length, cephalothorax width, and abdominal width (12.1%, 14.5%, 10.4%, 15.5% and 13.3% over three selection generations, respectively). Data in the second generation of selection showed positive correlated responses for carcass weight traits including: abdominal weight, exoskeleton-off weight, and telson-off weight of 8.8%, 8.6% and 8.8%, respectively. We conclude that body weight at harvest responded well to the application of combined (between and within) family selection and correlated responses in carcass weight traits were favorable.

Clinically-indicated replacement versus routine replacement of peripheral venous catheters

BACKGROUND: US Centers for Disease Control guidelines recommend replacement of peripheral intravenous (IV) catheters no more frequently than every 72 to 96 hours. Routine replacement is thought to reduce the risk of phlebitis and bloodstream infection. Catheter insertion is an unpleasant experience for patients and replacement may be unnecessary if the catheter remains functional and there are no signs of inflammation. Costs associated with routine replacement may be considerable. This is an update of a review first published in 2010. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of removing peripheral IV catheters when clinically indicated compared with removing and re-siting the catheter routinely. SEARCH METHODS: For this update the Cochrane Peripheral Vascular Diseases (PVD) Group Trials Search Co-ordinator searched the PVD Specialised Register (December 2012) and CENTRAL (2012, Issue 11). We also searched MEDLINE (last searched October 2012) and clinical trials registries. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials that compared routine removal of peripheral IV catheters with removal only when clinically indicated in hospitalised or community dwelling patients receiving continuous or intermittent infusions. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. MAIN RESULTS: Seven trials with a total of 4895 patients were included in the review. Catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI) was assessed in five trials (4806 patients). There was no significant between group difference in the CRBSI rate (clinically-indicated 1/2365; routine change 2/2441). The risk ratio (RR) was 0.61 but the confidence interval (CI) was wide, creating uncertainty around the estimate (95% CI 0.08 to 4.68; P = 0.64). No difference in phlebitis rates was found whether catheters were changed according to clinical indications or routinely (clinically-indicated 186/2365; 3-day change 166/2441; RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.39). This result was unaffected by whether infusion through the catheter was continuous or intermittent. We also analysed the data by number of device days and again no differences between groups were observed (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.27; P = 0.75). One trial assessed all-cause bloodstream infection. There was no difference in this outcome between the two groups (clinically-indicated 4/1593 (0.02%); routine change 9/1690 (0.05%); P = 0.21). Cannulation costs were lower by approximately AUD 7.00 in the clinically-indicated group (mean difference (MD) -6.96, 95% CI -9.05 to -4.86; P ≤ 0.00001). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The review found no evidence to support changing catheters every 72 to 96 hours. Consequently, healthcare organisations may consider changing to a policy whereby catheters are changed only if clinically indicated. This would provide significant cost savings and would spare patients the unnecessary pain of routine re-sites in the absence of clinical indications. To minimise peripheral catheter-related complications, the insertion site should be inspected at each shift change and the catheter removed if signs of inflammation, infiltration, or blockage are present. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of removing peripheral IV catheters when clinically indicated compared with removing and re-siting the catheter routinely. SEARCH METHODS: For this update the Cochrane Peripheral Vascular Diseases (PVD) Group Trials Search Co-ordinator searched the PVD Specialised Register (December 2012) and CENTRAL (2012, Issue 11). We also searched MEDLINE (last searched October 2012) and clinical trials registries. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials that compared routine removal of peripheral IV catheters with removal only when clinically indicated in hospitalised or community dwelling patients receiving continuous or intermittent infusions. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. MAIN RESULTS: Seven trials with a total of 4895 patients were included in the review. Catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI) was assessed in five trials (4806 patients). There was no significant between group difference in the CRBSI rate (clinically-indicated 1/2365; routine change 2/2441). The risk ratio (RR) was 0.61 but the confidence interval (CI) was wide, creating uncertainty around the estimate (95% CI 0.08 to 4.68; P = 0.64). No difference in phlebitis rates was found whether catheters were changed according to clinical indications or routinely (clinically-indicated 186/2365; 3-day change 166/2441; RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.39). This result was unaffected by whether infusion through the catheter was continuous or intermittent. We also analysed the data by number of device days and again no differences between groups were observed (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.27; P = 0.75). One trial assessed all-cause bloodstream infection. There was no difference in this outcome between the two groups (clinically-indicated 4/1593 (0.02%); routine change 9/1690 (0.05%); P = 0.21). Cannulation costs were lower by approximately AUD 7.00 in the clinically-indicated group (mean difference (MD) -6.96, 95% CI -9.05 to -4.86; P ≤ 0.00001). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The review found no evidence to support changing catheters every 72 to 96 hours. Consequently, healthcare organisations may consider changing to a policy whereby catheters are changed only if clinically indicated. This would provide significant cost savings and would spare patients the unnecessary pain of routine re-sites in the absence of clinical indications. To minimise peripheral catheter-related complications, the insertion site should be inspected at each shift change and the catheter removed if signs of inflammation, infiltration, or blockage are present.

Distinguishing between mean-field, moment dynamics and stochastic descriptions of birth-death-movement processes

Mathematical descriptions of birth–death–movement processes are often calibrated to measurements from cell biology experiments to quantify tissue growth rates. Here we describe and analyze a discrete model of a birth–death-movement process applied to a typical two–dimensional cell biology experiment. We present three different descriptions of the system: (i) a standard mean–field description which neglects correlation effects and clustering; (ii) a moment dynamics description which approximately incorporates correlation and clustering effects, and; (iii) averaged data from repeated discrete simulations which directly incorporates correlation and clustering effects. Comparing these three descriptions indicates that the mean–field and moment dynamics approaches are valid only for certain parameter regimes, and that both these descriptions fail to make accurate predictions of the system for sufficiently fast birth and death rates where the effects of spatial correlations and clustering are sufficiently strong. Without any method to distinguish between the parameter regimes where these three descriptions are valid, it is possible that either the mean–field or moment dynamics model could be calibrated to experimental data under inappropriate conditions, leading to errors in parameter estimation. In this work we demonstrate that a simple measurement of agent clustering and correlation, based on coordination number data, provides an indirect measure of agent correlation and clustering effects, and can therefore be used to make a distinction between the validity of the different descriptions of the birth–death–movement process.

Optical and biomechanical factors, associated with near work and myopia

Near work may play an important role in the development of myopia in the younger population. The prevalence of myopia has also been found to be higher in occupations that involve substantial near work tasks, for example in microscopists and textile workers. When nearwork is performed, it typically involves accommodation, convergence and downward gaze. A number of previous studies have examined the effects of accommodation and convergence on changes in the optics and biometrics of the eye in primary gaze. However, little is known about the influence of accommodation on the eye in downward gaze. This thesis is primarily concerned with investigating the changes in the eye during near work in downward gaze under natural viewing conditions. To measure wavefront aberrations in downward gaze under natural viewing conditions, we modified a commercial Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor by adding a relay lens system to allow on-axis ocular aberration measurements in primary gaze and downward gaze, with binocular fixation. Measurements with the modified wavefront sensor in primary and downward gaze were validated against a conventional aberrometer using both a model eye and in 9 human subjects. We then conducted an experiment to investigate changes in ocular aberrations associated with accommodation in downward gaze over 10 mins in groups of both myopes (n = 14) and emmetropes (n =12) using the modified Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor. During the distance accommodation task, small but significant changes in refractive power (myopic shift) and higher order aberrations were observed in downward gaze compared to primary gaze. Accommodation caused greater changes in higher order aberrations (in particular coma and spherical aberration) in downward gaze than primary gaze, and there was evidence that the changes in certain aberrations with accommodation over time were different in downward gaze compared to primary gaze. There were no obvious systematic differences in higher order aberrations between refractive error groups during accommodation or downward gaze for fixed pupils. However, myopes exhibited a significantly greater change in higher order aberrations (in particular spherical aberration) than emmetropes for natural pupils after 10 mins of a near task (5 D accommodation) in downward gaze. These findings indicated that ocular aberrations change from primary to downward gaze, particularly with accommodation. To understand the mechanism underlying these changes in greater detail, we then extended this work to examine the characteristics of the corneal optics, internal optics, anterior biometrics and axial length of the eye during a near task, in downward gaze, over 10 mins. Twenty young adult subjects (10 emmetropes and 10 myopes) participated in this study. To measure corneal topography and ocular biometrics in downward gaze, a rotating Scheimpflug camera and an optical biometer were inclined on a custom built, height and tilt adjustable table. We found that both corneal optics and internal optics change with downward gaze, resulting in a myopic shift (~0.10 D) in the spherical power of the eye. The changes in corneal optics appear to be due to eyelid pressure on the anterior surface of the cornea, whereas the changes in the internal optics (an increase in axial length and a decrease in anterior chamber depth) may be associated with movement of the crystalline lens, under the action of gravity, and the influence of altered biomechanical forces from the extraocular muscles on the globe with downward gaze. Changes in axial length with accommodation were significantly greater in downward gaze than primary gaze (p < 0.05), indicating an increased effect of the mechanical forces from the ciliary muscle and extraocular muscles. A subsequent study was conducted to investigate the changes in anterior biometrics, axial length and choroidal thickness in nine cardinal gaze directions under the actions of the extraocular muscles. Ocular biometry measurements were obtained from 30 young adults (10 emmetropes, 10 low myopes and 10 moderate myopes) through a rotating prism with 15° deviation, along the foveal axis, using a non-contact optical biometer in each of nine different cardinal directions of gaze, over 5 mins. There was a significant influence of gaze angle and time on axial length (both p < 0.001), with the greatest axial elongation (+18 ± 8 μm) occurring with infero-nasal gaze (p < 0.001) and a slight decrease in axial length in superior gaze (−12 ± 17 μm) compared with primary gaze (p < 0.001). There was a significant correlation between refractive error (spherical equivalent refraction) and the mean change in axial length in the infero-nasal gaze direction (Pearson's R2 = 0.71, p < 0.001). To further investigate the relative effect of gravity and extraocular muscle force on the axial length, we measured axial length in 15° and 25° downward gaze with the biometer inclined on a tilting table that allowed gaze shifts to occur with either full head turn but no eye turn (reflects the effect of gravity), or full eye turn with no head turn (reflects the effect of extraocular muscle forces). We observed a significant axial elongation in 15° and 25° downward gaze in the full eye turn condition. However, axial length did not change significantly in downward gaze over 5 mins (p > 0.05) in the full head turn condition. The elongation of the axial length in downward gaze appears to be due to the influence of the extraocular muscles, since the effect was not present when head turn was used instead of eye turn. The findings of these experiments collectively show the dynamic characteristics of the optics and biometrics of the eye in downward gaze during a near task, over time. These were small but significant differences between myopic and emmetropic eyes in both the optical and biomechanical changes associated with shifts of gaze direction. These differences between myopes and emmetropes could arise as a consequence of excessive eye growth associated with myopia. However the potentially additive effects of repeated or long lasting near work activities employing infero-nasal gaze could also act to promote elongation of the eye due to optical and/or biomechanical stimuli.

Control, shift, insert : living and enacting policy in teachers' day/night work

This thesis investigates the experiences of teachers who trialled an electronic curriculum and assessment tool in the wider context of text-mediated ruling relations organising their work. Problematised as policy and text, this tool is interrogated as a 'solution' to problems perceived in teachers' work in an era of increased accountability. It provides evidence that teachers' work is shaped by forces operating outside their control and mediated by the policy discourses and subjectivities available to them.

Incorporating spatial correlations into multispecies mean-field models

In biology, we frequently observe different species existing within the same environment. For example, there are many cell types in a tumour, or different animal species may occupy a given habitat. In modelling interactions between such species, we often make use of the mean field approximation, whereby spatial correlations between the locations of individuals are neglected. Whilst this approximation holds in certain situations, this is not always the case, and care must be taken to ensure the mean field approximation is only used in appropriate settings. In circumstances where the mean field approximation is unsuitable we need to include information on the spatial distributions of individuals, which is not a simple task. In this paper we provide a method that overcomes many of the failures of the mean field approximation for an on-lattice volume-excluding birth-death-movement process with multiple species. We explicitly take into account spatial information on the distribution of individuals by including partial differential equation descriptions of lattice site occupancy correlations. We demonstrate how to derive these equations for the multi-species case, and show results specific to a two-species problem. We compare averaged discrete results to both the mean field approximation and our improved method which incorporates spatial correlations. We note that the mean field approximation fails dramatically in some cases, predicting very different behaviour from that seen upon averaging multiple realisations of the discrete system. In contrast, our improved method provides excellent agreement with the averaged discrete behaviour in all cases, thus providing a more reliable modelling framework. Furthermore, our method is tractable as the resulting partial differential equations can be solved efficiently using standard numerical techniques.

Parenting from the outside-in : reflections on parent training during a potential paradigm shift

This article proposes that a paradigm shift that has implications for practitioners of parenting interventions is emerging. This shift represents a challenge to the dominant model of parent training. The Triple P Parenting Program is discussed as an example of parent training programme to highlight the relevant issues for practitioners, including common practitioner objections encountered in dissemination as identified, in part, by Mazzucchelli and Sanders. It is argued that apart fromthese objections, there are more essential concerns in relation to the adoption of parent training programmes by practitioners. Rather, the article argues that parent training is “mind-blind” and that approaches emerging from the field of interpersonal neurobiology represent developmentally sophisticated alternatives for intervention. The Circle of Security programme is discussed as one example of this emerging paradigm shift that integrates attachment, social neuroscience, and psychodynamic theory. Contrasts are highlighted between the models, and considerations for future issues in parent intervention conclude the article.

Diurnal variations in ocular aberrations of human eyes

Purpose: To investigate the diurnal variations in ocular wavefront aberrations over two consecutive days in young adult subjects. Materials and methods: Measurements of both lower-order (sphero-cylindrical refractive powers) and higher-order (3rd and 4th order aberration terms) ocular aberrations were collected for 30 young adult subjects at ten different times over two consecutive days using a Hartmann-Shack aberrometer. Fifteen subjects were myopic and 15 were emmetropic. Five sets of measurements were collected each day at approximately 3 hourly intervals, with the first measurement taken at ~9 am and the final measurement at ~9 pm. Results: Spherical equivalent refraction (p = 0.029) and spherical aberration (p = 0.043) were both found to undergo significant diurnal variation over the two measurement days. The spherical equivalent was typically found to be at a maximum (i.e. most hyperopic) at the morning measurement, with a small myopic shift of 0.37 ± 0.15 D observed over the course of the day. The mean spherical aberration of all subjects (0.038 ± 0.048 μm) was found to be positive during the day and gradually became more negative into the evening, with a mean amplitude of change of 0.036 ± 0.02 μm. None of the other considered sphero-cylindrical refractive power components or higher-order aberrations exhibited significant diurnal variation over the two days of the experiment (p>0.05). Except for the lower-order astigmatism at 90/180 deg (p = 0.040), there were no significant differences between myopes and emmetropes in the magnitude and timing of the observed diurnal variations (p>0.05). Conclusions: Significant diurnal variations in spherical equivalent and spherical aberration were consistently observed over two consecutive days of measurement. Research and clinical applications requiring precise refractive error and wavefront measurements should take these diurnal changes into account when interpreting wavefront data.

Heat strain and hydration status of surface mine blast crew workers

Objective Dehydration and symptoms of heat illness are common among the surface mining workforce. This investigation aimed to determine whether heat strain and hydration status exceeded recommended limits. Methods Fifteen blast crew personnel operating in the tropics were monitored across a 12-hour shift. Heart rate, core body temperature, and urine-specific gravity were continuously recorded. Participants self-reported fluid consumption and completed a heat illness symptom inventory. Results Core body temperature averaged 37.46 +/- 0.13[degrees]C, with the group maximum 37.98 +/- 0.19[degrees]C. Mean urine-specific gravity was 1.024 +/- 0.007, with 78.6% of samples 1.020 or more. Seventy-three percent of workers reported at least one symptom of heat illness during the shift. Conclusions Core body temperature remained within the recommended limits; however, more than 80% of workers were dehydrated before commencing the shift, and tended to remain so for the duration.

The Limited Benefit of Prison in Controlling Crime : On the Threshold of a Political Shift

In 2012 the New Zealand government spent $3.4 billion, or nearly $800 per person, on responses to crime via the justice system. Research shows that much of this spending does little to reduce the changes of re-offending. Relatively little money is spent on victims, the rehabilitation of offenders or to support the families of offenders. This book is based on papers presented at the Costs of Crime forum held by the Institute of Policy Studies in February 2011. It presents lessons from what is happening in Australia, Britain and the United States and focuses on how best to manage crime, respond to victims, and reduce offending in a cost-effective manner in a New Zealand context. It is clear that strategies are needed that are based on better research and a more informed approach to policy development. Such strategies must assist victims constructively while also reducing offending. Using public resources to lock as many people in our prisons as possible cannot be justified by the evidence and is fiscally unsustainable; nor does such an approach make society safer. To reduce the costs of crime we need to reinvest resources in effective strategies to build positive futures for those at risk and the communities needed to sustain them.

Benthic shift in a Solomon Islands' lagoon : corals to cyanobacteria

In June 2011 a large phytoplankton bloom resulted in a catastrophic mortality event that affected a large coastal embayment in the Solomon Islands. This consisted of an area in excess of 20 km2 of reef and soft sandy habitats in Marovo Lagoon, the largest double barrier lagoon in the world. This embayment is home to over 1200 people leading largely subsistence lifestyles depending on the impacted reefs for majority of their protein needs. A toxic diatom (Psuedo-nitzchia spp.) and toxic dinoflagellate (Pyrodinium bahamense var. compressum) reached concentrations of millions of cells per litre. The senescent phytoplankton bloom led to complete de-oxygenation of the water column that reportedly caused substantial mortality of marine animal life in the immediate area within a rapid timeframe (24 h). Groups affected included holothurians, crabs and reef and pelagic fish species. Dolphins, reptiles and birds were also found dead within the area, indicating algal toxin accumulation in the food chain. Deep reefs and sediments, whilst initially unaffected, have now been blanketed in large cyanobacterial mats which have negatively impacted live coral cover especially within the deep reef zone (> 6 m depth). Reef recovery within the deep zone has been extremely slow and may indicate an alternative state for the system.

Noise levels in a general intensive care unit : a descriptive study.

The aim of this small-scale study was to measure, analyse and compare levels of acoustic noise, in a nine-bedded general intensive care unit (ICU). Measurements were undertaken using the Norsonic 116 sound level meter recording noise levels in the internationally agreed ‘A’ weighted scale. Noise level data were obtained and recorded at 5 min over 3 consecutive days. Results of noise level analysis indicated that mean noise levels within this clinical area was 56·42 dB(A), with acute spikes reaching 80 dB(A). The quietest noise level attained was that of 50 dB(A) during sporadic intervals throughout the 24-h period. Parametric testing using analysis of variance found a positive relationship (p ≤ 0·001) between the nursing shifts and the day of the week. However, Scheffe multiple range testing showed significant differences between the morning shift, and the afternoon and night shifts combined (p ≤ 0·05). There was no statistical difference between the afternoon and night shifts (p ≥ 0·05). While the results of this study may seem self-evident in many respects, what it has highlighted is that the problem of excessive noise exposure within the ICU continues to go unabated. More concerning is that the prolonged effects of excessive noise exposure on patients and staff alike can have deleterious effect on the health and well-being of these individuals.

Back to the roots : mean-variance analysis of relevance estimations

Recently, mean-variance analysis has been proposed as a novel paradigm to model document ranking in Information Retrieval. The main merit of this approach is that it diversifies the ranking of retrieved documents. In its original formulation, the strategy considers both the mean of relevance estimates of retrieved documents and their variance. How- ever, when this strategy has been empirically instantiated, the concepts of mean and variance are discarded in favour of a point-wise estimation of relevance (to replace the mean) and of a parameter to be tuned or, alternatively, a quantity dependent upon the document length (to replace the variance). In this paper we revisit this ranking strategy by going back to its roots: mean and variance. For each retrieved document, we infer a relevance distribution from a series of point-wise relevance estimations provided by a number of different systems. This is used to compute the mean and the variance of document relevance estimates. On the TREC Clueweb collection, we show that this approach improves the retrieval performances. This development could lead to new strategies to address the fusion of relevance estimates provided by different systems.