Polytomies and bayesian phylogenetic inference

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short edge lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

Polytomies and bayesian phylogenetic inference

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short edge lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

A Bayesian analysis for spatial processes with application to mapping

In geographical epidemiology, maps of disease rates and disease risk provide a spatial perspective for researching disease etiology. For rare diseases or when the population base is small, the rate and risk estimates may be unstable. Empirical Bayesian (EB) methods have been used to spatially smooth the estimates by permitting an area estimate to "borrow strength" from its neighbors. Such EB methods include the use of a Gamma model, of a James-Stein estimator, and of a conditional autoregressive (CAR) process. A fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process is proposed. One advantage of this fully Bayesian analysis is that it can be implemented simply by using repeated sampling from the posterior densities. Use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique such as Gibbs sampler was not necessary. Direct resampling from the posterior densities provides exact small sample inferences instead of the approximate asymptotic analyses of maximum likelihood methods (Clayton & Kaldor, 1987). Further, the proposed CAR model provides for covariates to be included in the model. A simulation demonstrates the effect of sample size on the fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process. The methods are applied to lip cancer data from Scotland, and the results are compared. ^

Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Crabeater seals (Lobodon carcinophaga) in the Weddell Sea during DRE1998 campaign

The crabeater seal (Lobodon carcinophaga) is the most abundant Antarctic seal and inhabits the circumpolar pack ice zone of the Southern Ocean. Until now, information on important environmental factors affecting its distribution as well as on foraging behaviour is limited. In austral summer 1998, 12 crabeater seals of both sexes and different age classes were equipped with satellitelinked dive recorders at Drescher Inlet (72.85°S, 19.26°E), eastern Weddell Sea. To identify suitable habitat conditions within the Weddell Sea, a maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling approach was implemented. The model revealed that the eastern and southern Weddell Sea is especially suitable for crabeater seals. Distance to the continental shelf break and sea ice concentration were the two most important parameters in modelling species distribution throughout the study period. Model predictions demonstrated that crabeater seals showed a dynamic response to their seasonally changing environment emphasized by the favoured sea ice conditions. Crabeater seals utilized ice-free waters substantially, which is potentially explained by the comparatively low sea ice cover of the Weddell Sea during summer 1998. Diving behaviour was characterized by short (>90 % = 0-4 min) and shallow (>90 % = 0-51 m) dives. This pattern reflects the typical summer and autumn foraging behaviour of crabeater seals. Both the distribution and foraging behaviour corresponded well with the life history of the Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), the preferred prey of crabeater seals. In general, predicted suitable habitat conditions were congruent with probable habitats of krill, which emphasizes the strong dependence on their primary prey.

Detection of growth-related QTLs in turbot (Scophtalmus maximux)

Background The turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) is a highly appreciated European aquaculture species. Growth related traits constitute the main goal of the ongoing genetic breeding programs of this species. The recent construction of a consensus linkage map in this species has allowed the selection of a panel of 100 homogeneously distributed markers covering the 26 linkage groups (LG) suitable for QTL search. In this study we addressed the detection of QTL with effect on body weight, length and Fulton's condition factor. Results Eight families from two genetic breeding programs comprising 814 individuals were used to search for growth related QTL using the panel of microsatellites available for QTL screening. Two different approaches, maximum likelihood and regression interval mapping, were used in order to search for QTL. Up to eleven significant QTL were detected with both methods in at least one family: four for weight on LGs 5, 14, 15 and 16; five for length on LGs 5, 6, 12, 14 and 15; and two for Fulton's condition factor on LGs 3 and 16. In these LGs an association analysis was performed to ascertain the microsatellite marker with the highest apparent effect on the trait, in order to test the possibility of using them for marker assisted selection. Conclusions The use of regression interval mapping and maximum likelihood methods for QTL detection provided consistent results in many cases, although the high variation observed for traits mean among families made it difficult to evaluate QTL effects. Finer mapping of detected QTL, looking for tightly linked markers to the causative mutation, and comparative genomics are suggested to deepen in the analysis of QTL in turbot so they can be applied in marker assisted selection programs.

Mode matches and their locations in the hydrophobic free energy sequences of peptide ligands and their receptor eigenfunctions

Patterns in sequences of amino acid hydrophobic free energies predict secondary structures in proteins. In protein folding, matches in hydrophobic free energy statistical wavelengths appear to contribute to selective aggregation of secondary structures in “hydrophobic zippers.” In a similar setting, the use of Fourier analysis to characterize the dominant statistical wavelengths of peptide ligands’ and receptor proteins’ hydrophobic modes to predict such matches has been limited by the aliasing and end effects of short peptide lengths, as well as the broad-band, mode multiplicity of many of their frequency (power) spectra. In addition, the sequence locations of the matching modes are lost in this transformation. We make new use of three techniques to address these difficulties: (i) eigenfunction construction from the linear decomposition of the lagged covariance matrices of the ligands and receptors as hydrophobic free energy sequences; (ii) maximum entropy, complex poles power spectra, which select the dominant modes of the hydrophobic free energy sequences or their eigenfunctions; and (iii) discrete, best bases, trigonometric wavelet transformations, which confirm the dominant spectral frequencies of the eigenfunctions and locate them as (absolute valued) moduli in the peptide or receptor sequence. The leading eigenfunction of the covariance matrix of a transmembrane receptor sequence locates the same transmembrane segments seen in n-block-averaged hydropathy plots while leaving the remaining hydrophobic modes unsmoothed and available for further analyses as secondary eigenfunctions. In these receptor eigenfunctions, we find a set of statistical wavelength matches between peptide ligands and their G-protein and tyrosine kinase coupled receptors, ranging across examples from 13.10 amino acids in acid fibroblast growth factor to 2.18 residues in corticotropin releasing factor. We find that the wavelet-located receptor modes in the extracellular loops are compatible with studies of receptor chimeric exchanges and point mutations. A nonbinding corticotropin-releasing factor receptor mutant is shown to have lost the signatory mode common to the normal receptor and its ligand. Hydrophobic free energy eigenfunctions and their transformations offer new quantitative physical homologies in database searches for peptide-receptor matches.

Rates of nucleotide substitution in sexual and anciently asexual rotifers

The class Bdelloidea of the phylum Rotifera is the largest well studied eukaryotic taxon in which males and meiosis are unknown, and the only one for which these indications of ancient asexuality are supported by cytological and molecular genetic evidence. We estimated the rates of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions in the hsp82 heat shock gene in bdelloids and in facultatively sexual rotifers of the class Monogononta, employing distance based and maximum likelihood methods. Relative-rate tests, using acanthocephalan rotifers as an outgroup, showed slightly higher rates of nonsynonymous substitution and slightly lower rates of synonymous substitution in bdelloids as compared with monogononts. The opposite trend, however, was seen in intraclass pairwise comparisons. If, as it seems, bdelloids have evolved asexually, an equality of bdelloid and monogonont substitution rates would suggest that the maintenance of sexual reproduction in monogononts is not attributable to an effect of sexual reproduction in limiting the load of deleterious nucleotide substitutions.

The root of the universal tree and the origin of eukaryotes based on elongation factor phylogeny.

The genes for the protein synthesis elongation factors Tu (EF-Tu) and G (EF-G) are the products of an ancient gene duplication, which appears to predate the divergence of all extant organismal lineages. Thus, it should be possible to root a universal phylogeny based on either protein using the second protein as an outgroup. This approach was originally taken independently with two separate gene duplication pairs, (i) the regulatory and catalytic subunits of the proton ATPases and (ii) the protein synthesis elongation factors EF-Tu and EF-G. Questions about the orthology of the ATPase genes have obscured the former results, and the elongation factor data have been criticized for inadequate taxonomic representation and alignment errors. We have expanded the latter analysis using a broad representation of taxa from all three domains of life. All phylogenetic methods used strongly place the root of the universal tree between two highly distinct groups, the archaeons/eukaryotes and the eubacteria. We also find that a combined data set of EF-Tu and EF-G sequences favors placement of the eukaryotes within the Archaea, as the sister group to the Crenarchaeota. This relationship is supported by bootstrap values of 60-89% with various distance and maximum likelihood methods, while unweighted parsimony gives 58% support for archaeal monophyly.

Evolution of chlorophyll and bacteriochlorophyll: the problem of invariant sites in sequence analysis.

Competing hypotheses seek to explain the evolution of oxygenic and anoxygenic processes of photosynthesis. Since chlorophyll is less reduced and precedes bacteriochlorophyll on the modern biosynthetic pathway, it has been proposed that chlorophyll preceded bacteriochlorophyll in its evolution. However, recent analyses of nucleotide sequences that encode chlorophyll and bacteriochlorophyll biosynthetic enzymes appear to provide support for an alternative hypothesis. This is that the evolution of bacteriochlorophyll occurred earlier than the evolution of chlorophyll. Here we demonstrate that the presence of invariant sites in sequence datasets leads to inconsistency in tree building (including maximum-likelihood methods). Homologous sequences with different biological functions often share invariant sites at the same nucleotide positions. However, different constraints can also result in additional invariant sites unique to the genes, which have specific and different biological functions. Consequently, the distribution of these sites can be uneven between the different types of homologous genes. The presence of invariant sites, shared by related biosynthetic genes as well as those unique to only some of these genes, has misled the recent evolutionary analysis of oxygenic and anoxygenic photosynthetic pigments. We evaluate an alternative scheme for the evolution of chlorophyll and bacteriochlorophyll.

Simultaneous optical and X-ray observations of flares and rotational modulation on the RS CVn binary HR 1099 (V711 Tau) from the MUSICOS 1998 campaign

We present simultaneous and continuous observations of the Hα, Hβ, He I D_3, Na I D_1,D_2 doublet and the Ca II H&K lines for the RS CVn system HR 1099. The spectroscopic observations were obtained during the MUSICOS 1998 campaign involving several observatories and instruments, both echelle and long-slit spectrographs. During this campaign, HR 1099 was observed almost continuously for more than 8 orbits of 2^d.8. Two large optical flares were observed, both showing an increase in the emission of Hα, Ca II H K, Hβ and He I D_3 and a strong filling-in of the Na I D_1, D_2 doublet. Contemporary photometric observations were carried out with the robotic telescopes APT-80 of Catania and Phoenix-25 of Fairborn Observatories. Maps of the distribution of the spotted regions on the photosphere of the binary components were derived using the Maximum Entropy and Tikhonov photometric regularization criteria. Rotational modulation was observed in Hα and He I D_3 in anti-correlation with the photometric light curves. Both flares occurred at the same binary phase (0.85), suggesting that these events took place in the same active region. Simultaneous X-ray observations, performed by ASM on board RXTE, show several flare-like events, some of which correlate well with the observed optical flares. Rotational modulation in the X-ray light curve has been detected with minimum flux when the less active G5 V star was in front. A possible periodicity in the X-ray flare-like events was also found.

Molecules, wing pattern and distribution: an approach to species delimitation in the "loxurina group" (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae: Penaincisalia)

The wide range of morphological variations in the “loxurina group” makes taxa identification difficult, and despite several reviews, serious taxonomical confusion remains. We make use of DNA data in conjunction with morphological appearance and available information on species distribution to delimit the boundaries of the “loxurina” group species previously established based on morphology. A fragment of 635 base pairs within the mtDNA gene cytochrome oxidase I (COI) was analysed for seven species of the “loxurina group”. Phylogenetic relationships among the included taxa were inferred using maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood methods. Penaincisalia sigsiga (Bálint et al), P. cillutincarae (Draudt), P. atymna (Hewitson) and P. loxurina (C. Felder & R. Felder) were easily delimited as the morphological, geographic and molecular data were congruent. Penaincisalia ludovica (Bálint & Wojtusiak) and P. loxurina astillero (Johnson) represent the same entity and constitute a sub-species of P. loxurina. However, incongruence among morphological, genetic, and geographic data is shown in P. chachapoya (Bálint & Wojtusiak) and P. tegulina (Bálint et al). Our results highlight that an integrative approach is needed to clarify the taxonomy of these neotropical taxa, but more genetic and geographical studies are still required.

Métodos de máxima verosimilitud en ecología y su aplicación en modelos de vecindad

Los métodos de máxima verosimilitud (MMV) ofrecen un marco alternativo a la estadística frecuentista convencional, alejándose del uso del p-valor para el rechazo de una única hipótesis nula y optando por el uso de las verosimilitudes para evaluar el grado de apoyo en los datos a un conjunto de hipótesis alternativas (o modelos) de interés para el investigador. Estos métodos han sido ampliamente aplicados en ecología en el marco de los modelos de vecindad. Dichos modelos usan una aproximación espacialmente explícita para describir procesos demográficos de plantas o procesos ecosistémicos en función de los atributos de los individuos vecinos. Se trata por tanto de modelos fenomenológicos cuya principal utilidad radica en funcionar como herramientas de síntesis de los múltiples mecanismos por los que las especies pueden interactuar e influenciar su entorno, proporcionando una medida del efecto per cápita de individuos de distintas características (ej. tamaño, especie, rasgos fisiológicos) sobre los procesos de interés. La gran ventaja de aplicar los MMV en el marco de los modelos de vecindad es que permite ajustar y comparar múltiples modelos que usen distintos atributos de los vecinos y/o formas funcionales para seleccionar aquel con mayor soporte empírico. De esta manera, cada modelo funcionará como un “experimento virtual” para responder preguntas relacionadas con la magnitud y extensión espacial de los efectos de distintas especies coexistentes, y extraer conclusiones sobre posibles implicaciones para el funcionamiento de comunidades y ecosistemas. Este trabajo sintetiza las técnicas de implementación de los MMV y los modelos de vecindad en ecología terrestre, resumiendo su uso hasta la fecha y destacando nuevas líneas de aplicación.

Study of the interface Pt(111)/ [Emmim][NTf2] using laser-induced temperature jump experiments

The interface between a Pt(111) electrode and a room temperature ionic liquid, 1-ethyl-2,3-dimethylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide, was investigated with the laser-induced temperature jump method. In this technique, the temperature of the interface is suddenly increased by applying short laser pulses. The change of the electrode potential caused by the thermal perturbation is measured under coulostatic conditions during the subsequent temperature relaxation. This change is mainly related to the reorganization of the solvent components near the electrode surface. The sign of the potential transient depends on the potential of the experiment. At high potential values, positive transients indicate a higher density of anions than cations close the surface, contributing negatively to the potential of the electrode. Decreasing the applied potential to sufficiently low values, the transient becomes negative, meaning that the density of cations becomes then higher at the surface of the electrode. The potential dependence of the interfacial response shows a marked hysteresis depending on the direction in which the applied potential is changed.

Characterization of the interfaces between Au(hkl) single crystal basal plane electrodes and [Emmim][Tf2N] ionic liquid

The interface between Au(hkl) basal planes and the ionic liquid 1-Ethyl-2,3-dimethyl imidazolium bis(trifluoromethyl)sulfonil imide was investigated by using both cyclic voltammetry and laser-induced temperature jump. Cyclic voltammetry showed characteristic features, revealing surface sensitive processes at the interfaces Au(hkl)/[Emmim][Tf2N]. From laser-induced heating the potential of maximum entropy (pme) is determined. Pme is close to the potential of zero charge (pzc) and, therefore, the technique provides relevant interfacial information. The following order for the pme values has been found: Au(111) > Au(100) > Au(110). This order correlates well with work function data and values of pzc in aqueous solutions.