Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

MAMOT: hidden Markov modeling tool.

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic models that are well adapted to many tasks in bioinformatics, for example, for predicting the occurrence of specific motifs in biological sequences. MAMOT is a command-line program for Unix-like operating systems, including MacOS X, that we developed to allow scientists to apply HMMs more easily in their research. One can define the architecture and initial parameters of the model in a text file and then use MAMOT for parameter optimization on example data, decoding (like predicting motif occurrence in sequences) and the production of stochastic sequences generated according to the probabilistic model. Two examples for which models are provided are coiled-coil domains in protein sequences and protein binding sites in DNA. A wealth of useful features include the use of pseudocounts, state tying and fixing of selected parameters in learning, and the inclusion of prior probabilities in decoding. AVAILABILITY: MAMOT is implemented in C++, and is distributed under the GNU General Public Licence (GPL). The software, documentation, and example model files can be found at http://bcf.isb-sib.ch/mamot

Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Gestión en el territorio de una empresa de seguridad mediante estándares GIS e integración de datos con Google Maps.

Estudi teòric sobre els Sistemes d'Informació Geogràfica (GIS) i sobre les especificacions que està publicant el Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) com estàndards oberts que permetin les comunicacions entre distints GIS.

Gestión en el territorio de una empresa de seguridad mediante estándares SIG e integración de datos con GOOGLE MAPS

Amb l'evolució de les noves tecnologies, els Sistemes d'Informació Geogràfica (SIG) es basen cada vegada menys en plataformes propietàries (únicament a l'abast de grans companyies). L'objectiu que persegueix el Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) és que tot el món pugui beneficiar-se de la informació geogràfica, fent que els serveis estiguin disponibles en qualsevol xarxa, aplicació o sistema.

Desenvolupament d'edició geogràfica segons l'estàndard WFS-T sobre l'API de Google Maps

El present treball tractarà d'aprofitar Google Maps i les eines lliures disponibles, per construir unes llibreries Javascript d'ús obert que permetin afegir serveis de persistència als serveis de cartografia ja disponibles.

'Active Travel' Maps: Derry/Londonderry, Enniskillen, Limavady, Omagh and Strabane

New 'Active Travel' Maps, funded by the Public Health Agency, for the cities and towns of Derry/ Londonderry, Enniskillen, Limavady, Omagh and Strabane have been launched to encourage local people and visitors to build physical activity into their day by walking, cycling, jogging, or using public transport.The Active Maps aim to promote health and wellbeing across the five district councils in the West and contain information on local cycle, walk and bus routes as well as useful contacts such as local cycle hire and sales outlets and walking groups, for example.

Representació dels jaciments arqueològics del Museu de Molins de Rei amb Google Maps

En aquest document es recull i descriuen els treballs fets al Treball de Final de Carrera, en la especialitat de Sistemes d'Informació Geogràfica (SIG). La finalitat del projecte es utilitzar les tecnologies SIG per crear una pagina web on es representin els jaciments arqueològics del Museu de Molins de Rei de forma visual fàcil e interactiva sobre el mateix mapa. Per això es farà una web que sigui un "Mash-Up" utilitzant les les funcionalitats que proporcionen les Api de Google Maps.

Representació dels Jaciments de Molins de Rei amb Google Maps

El Museu Municipal de Molins de Rei desitja posar a la disposició dels visitants, tant presencials com virtuals, el seu fons, així com disposar d'una eina que permeti visualitzar sobre un mapa la distribució dels seus jaciments.L'usuari d'aquest projecte disposarà d'una eina que li facilitarà triar els jaciments en funció del període històric que vol consultar, accedint a través d'aquests a la documentació relativa als períodes històrics del jaciment, la de les troballes corresponents a cada període històric del jaciment i a les imatges tant del jaciment com dels objectes que s'hi han trobat.També disposarà d'una eina que li donarà les indicacions adequades per tal de poder arribar des de l'adreça que desitgi fins a la seu del museu o fins als diferents jaciments.

The cost-effectiveness and public health benefit of nalmefene added to psychosocial support for the reduction of alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels: a Markov model.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether nalmefene combined with psychosocial support is cost-effective compared with psychosocial support alone for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels (DRLs) as defined by the WHO, and to evaluate the public health benefit of reducing harmful alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths. DESIGN: Decision modelling using Markov chains compared costs and effects over 5 years. SETTING: The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: The model considered the licensed population for nalmefene, specifically adults with both alcohol dependence and high/very high DRLs, who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue to have high/very high DRLs after initial assessment. DATA SOURCES: We modelled treatment effect using data from three clinical trials for nalmefene (ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941)). Baseline characteristics of the model population, treatment resource utilisation and utilities were from these trials. We estimated the number of alcohol-attributable events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption based on published epidemiological risk-relation studies. Health-related costs were from UK sources. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and number of alcohol-attributable harmful events avoided. RESULTS: Nalmefene in combination with psychosocial support had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5204 per QALY gained, and was therefore cost-effective at the £20,000 per QALY gained decision threshold. Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to the avoidance of 7179 alcohol-attributable diseases/injuries and 309 deaths per 100,000 patients compared to psychosocial support alone over the course of 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Nalmefene can be seen as a cost-effective treatment for alcohol dependence, with substantial public health benefits. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: This cost-effectiveness analysis was developed based on data from three randomised clinical trials: ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941).

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

Using self organizing maps on compositional data

Self-organizing maps (Kohonen 1997) is a type of artificial neural network developedto explore patterns in high-dimensional multivariate data. The conventional versionof the algorithm involves the use of Euclidean metric in the process of adaptation ofthe model vectors, thus rendering in theory a whole methodology incompatible withnon-Euclidean geometries.In this contribution we explore the two main aspects of the problem:1. Whether the conventional approach using Euclidean metric can shed valid resultswith compositional data.2. If a modification of the conventional approach replacing vectorial sum and scalarmultiplication by the canonical operators in the simplex (i.e. perturbation andpowering) can converge to an adequate solution.Preliminary tests showed that both methodologies can be used on compositional data.However, the modified version of the algorithm performs poorer than the conventionalversion, in particular, when the data is pathological. Moreover, the conventional ap-proach converges faster to a solution, when data is \well-behaved".Key words: Self Organizing Map; Artificial Neural networks; Compositional data

Weighted Logratio Biplots, Correspondence Analysis and Spectral Maps

Starting with logratio biplots for compositional data, which are based on the principle of subcompositional coherence, and then adding weights, as in correspondence analysis, we rediscover Lewi's spectral map and many connections to analyses of two-way tables of non-negative data. Thanks to the weighting, the method also achieves the property of distributional equivalence