Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.

Modeling Depression Progression Dynamics from Electronic Health Record

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Aspects of Markov Chains and Particle Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Subgeometric rates of convergence for a class of continuous-time Markov process

Let (Phi(t))(t is an element of R+) be a Harris ergodic continuous-time Markov process on a general state space, with invariant probability measure pi. We investigate the rates of convergence of the transition function P-t(x, (.)) to pi; specifically, we find conditions under which r(t) vertical bar vertical bar P-t (x, (.)) - pi vertical bar vertical bar -> 0 as t -> infinity, for suitable subgeometric rate functions r(t), where vertical bar vertical bar - vertical bar vertical bar denotes the usual total variation norm for a signed measure. We derive sufficient conditions for the convergence to hold, in terms of the existence of suitable points on which the first hitting time moments are bounded. In particular, for stochastically ordered Markov processes, explicit bounds on subgeometric rates of convergence are obtained. These results are illustrated in several examples.

Kallikrein 4 (hK4) and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) are associated with the loss of E-cadherin and an epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT)-like effect in prostate cancer cells

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the related kallikrein family of serine proteases are current or emerging biomarkers for prostate cancer detection and progression. Kallikrein 4 (KLK4/hK4) is of particular interest, as KLK4 mRNA has been shown to be elevated in prostate cancer. In this study, we now show that the comparative expression of hK4 protein in prostate cancer tissues, compared with benign glands, is greater than that of PSA and kallikrein 2 (KLK2/hK2), suggesting that hK4 may play an important functional role in prostate cancer progression in addition to its biomarker potential. To examine the roles that hK4, as well as PSA and hK2, play in processes associated with progression, these kallikreins were separately transfected into the PC-3 prostate cancer cell line, and the consequence of their stable transfection was investigated. PC-3 cells expressing hK4 had a decreased growth rate, but no changes in cell proliferation were observed in the cells expressing PSA or hK2. hK4 and PSA, but not hK2, induced a 2.4-fold and 1.7-fold respective increase, in cellular migration, but not invasion, through Matrigel, a synthetic extracellular matrix. We hypothesised that this increase in motility displayed by the hK4 and PSA-expressing PC-3 cells may be related to the observed change in structure in these cells from a typical rounded epithelial-like cell to a spindle-shaped, more mesenchymal-like cell, with compromised adhesion to the culture surface. Thus, the expression of E-cadherin and vimentin, both associated with an epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), was investigated. E-cadherin protein was lost and mRNA levels were significantly decreased in PC-3 cells expressing hK4 and PSA (10-fold and 7-fold respectively), suggesting transcriptional repression of E-cadherin, while the expression of vimentin was increased in these cells. The loss of E-cadherin and associated increase in vimentin are indicative of EMT and provides compelling evidence that hK4, in particular, and PSA have a functional role in the progression of prostate cancer through their promotion of tumour cell migration.

Self-consistent theory of atomic Fermi gases with a Feshbach resonance at the superfluid transition

A self-consistent theory is derived to describe the BCS-Bose-Einstein-condensate crossover for a strongly interacting Fermi gas with a Feshbach resonance. In the theory the fluctuation of the dressed molecules, consisting of both preformed Cooper pairs and bare Feshbach molecules, has been included within a self-consistent T-matrix approximation, beyond the Nozieres and Schmitt-Rink strategy considered by Ohashi and Griffin. The resulting self-consistent equations are solved numerically to investigate the normal-state properties of the crossover at various resonance widths. It is found that the superfluid transition temperature T-c increases monotonically at all widths as the effective interaction between atoms becomes more attractive. Furthermore, a residue factor Z(m) of the molecule's Green function and a complex effective mass have been determined to characterize the fraction and lifetime of Feshbach molecules at T-c. Our many-body calculations of Z(m) agree qualitatively well with recent measurments of the gas of Li-6 atoms near the broad resonance at 834 G. The crossover from narrow to broad resonances has also been studied.

Formulation and characterisation of lyophilised rapid disintegrating tablets using amino acids as matrix forming agents

Despite recent advances in the formulation of lyophilised rapid disintegrating tablets (RDTs), the inclusion of matrix supporting/disintegration enhancing agents has been limited to the use of saccharides and polyols. In this study, the feasibility of using amino acids as matrix forming agents in lyophilised RDTs was investigated. Twelve amino acids were chosen (alanine, arginine, threonine, glycine, cysteine, serine, histidine, lysine, valine, asparagine, glutamine and proline), and the suitability for freeze drying, mechanical properties and disintegration time after inclusion of the amino acids at varied concentration were studied. In addition, the porosity of the RDTs and wettability profile of the amino acids were investigated to understand the mechanisms of disintegration. The results suggest the suitability of these amino acids for the lyophilisation regime, as they displayed satisfactory safety margin between the glass transition and shelf temperature (-40 degrees C), except proline-based formulations. Moreover, the crystallisation behavior of alanine, glycine, cysteine and serine at high concentration increased the stability of the formulation. The characterisation of the RDTs suggests that high concentration of the amino acids is required to enhance the mechanical properties, whereas only optimum concentrations promote the disintegration. Moreover, wetting time of the amino acid and porosity of the tablet are the two factors that control the disintegration of RDTs.

Transition metal ion coordination in hydrophilic polymer membranes

The research described within this thesis is concerned with the investigation of transition metal ion complexation within hydrophilic copolymer membranes. The membranes are copolymers of 4-methyl-4'-vinyl-2,2'-bipyridine, the 2-hydroxyethyl ester of 4,4'- dicarboxy-2,2'-bipyridine & bis-(5-vinylsalicylidene)ethylenediamine with 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate. The effect of the polymer matrix on the formation and properties of transition metal iron complexes has been studied, specifically Cr(III) & Fe(II) salts for the bipyridyl- based copolymer membranes and Co(II), Ni(II) & Cu(II) salts for the salenH2- based copolymer membranes. The concomitant effect of complex formation on the properties of the polymer matrix have also been studied, e.g. on mechanical strength. A detailed body of work into the kinetics and thermodynamics for the formation of Cu(II) complexes in the salenH2- based copolymer membranes has been performed. The rate of complex formation is found to be very slow while the value of K for the equilibrium of complex formation is found to be unexpectedly small and shows a slight anion dependence. These phenomena are explained in terms of the effects of the heterogeneous phase provided by the polymer matrix. The transport of Cr(III) ions across uncomplexed and Cr(III)-pre-complexed bipyridyl-based membranes has been studied. In both cases, no Cr(III) coordination occurs within the time-scale of an experiment. Pre-complexation of the membrane does not lead to a change in the rate of permeation of Cr(III) ions. The transport of Co(II), Ni(II) & Cu(II) ions across salenH2- based membranes shows that there is no detectable lag-time in transport of the ions, despite independent evidence that complex formation within the membranes does occur. Finally, the synthesis of a number of functionalised ligands is described. Although they were found to be non-polymerisable by the methods employed in this research, they remain interesting ligands which provide a startmg pomt for further functionalisation.

Using organoclay to promote morphology refinement and co-continuity in high-density polyethylene/polyamide 6 blends - Effect of filler content and polymer matrix composition

We investigate the gradual changes of the microstructure of two blends of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and polyamide 6 (PA6) at opposite composition filled with increasing amounts of an organomodified clay. The filler locates preferentially inside the polyamide phase, bringing about radical alterations in the micron-scale arrangement of the polymer phases. When the host polyamide represents the major constituent, a sudden reduction of the average sizes of the polyethylene droplets was observed upon addition of even low amounts of organoclay. A morphology refinement was also noticed at low filler contents when the particles distributes inside the minor phase. In this case, however, keep increasing the organoclay content eventually results in a high degree of PA6 phase continuity. Rheological analyses reveal that the filler loading at which the polyamide assembles in a continuous network corresponds to the critical threshold for its rheological transition from a liquid- to a gel-like behaviour, which is indicative of the structuring of the filler inside the host PA6. On the basis of this finding, a schematic mechanism is proposed in which the role of the filler in driving the space arrangement of the polymer phases is discussed. Finally, we show that the synergism between the reinforcing action of the filler and its ability to affect the blend microstructure can be exploited in order to enhance relevant technological properties of the materials, such as their high temperature structural integrity.

Transition metal ion co-ordination in hydrophilic polymer membrane

This thesis is concerned with the investigation of transition metal (TM) ion complexation with hydrophilic membranes composed of copolymers of 4-vinyl pyridine & 4-methyl-4'vinyl- 2,2'-bipyridine with 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate. The Cu(II), CoCII) & Fe(II) complexes with these coordinating membranes were characterised by a variety of techniques, in order to assess the effect of the polymer on the properties of the complex, and vice versa. A detailed programme of work was instigated into the kinetics of formation for the polymer-bound tris(bipyridyl) iron(II) complex; the rate and extent of complex formation was found to be anion-dependent. This is explained in terms of the influence of the anion on the transport properties and water content of the membrane, the controlling factor in the development of the tris-complex being the equilibrium concentration of Fe(II) in the gel matrix. A series of transport studies were performed with a view to the potential application of complexing hydrogel membranes for aqueous TM ion separations. A number of salts were studied individually and shown to possess a range of permeabilities; the degree of interaction between particular metal-ion:ligand combinations is given by the lag-time observed before steady-state permeation is achieved. However, when two TM salts that individually display different transport properties were studied in combination, they showed similar lag-times & permeabilities, characteristic of the more strongly coordinating metal ion. This 'anti-selective' nature thus renders the membrane systems unsuitable for TM ion separations. Finally, attempts were made to synthesise and immobilise a series of N ,0-donor macrocyclic ligands into hydrogel membranes. Although the functionalisation reactions failed, limited transport data was obtained from membranes in which the ligands were physically entrapped within the polymer matrix.

A novel regulatory role for tissue transglutaminase in epithelial-mesenchymal transition in cystic fibrosis

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a genetic disorder caused by mutation of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) for which there is no overall effective treatment. Recent work indicates tissue transglutaminase (TG2) plays a pivotal intracellular role in proteostasis in CF epithelia and that the pan TG inhibitor cysteamine improves CFTR stability. Here we show TG2 has another role in CF pathology linked with TGFβ1 activation and signalling, induction of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), CFTR stability and induction of matrix deposition. We show that increased TG2 expression in normal and CF bronchial epithelial cells increases TGFβ1 levels, promoting EMT progression, and impairs tight junctions as measured by Transepithelial Electric Resistance (TEER) which can be reversed by selective inhibition of TG2 with an observed increase in CFTR stability. Our data indicate that selective inhibition of TG2 provides a potential therapeutic avenue for reducing fibrosis and increasing CFTR stability in CF.

A Methodological Framework for Modeling Pavement Maintenance Costs for Projects with Performance-based Contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

Likelihood-Based Inference for Partially Observed Multi-Type Markov Branching Processes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Probabilistic approach of water residence time and connectivity using Markov Chains with application to tidal embayments

Markov Chain analysis was recently proposed to assess the time scales and preferential pathways into biological or physical networks by computing residence time, first passage time, rates of transfer between nodes and number of passages in a node. We propose to adapt an algorithm already published for simple systems to physical systems described with a high resolution hydrodynamic model. The method is applied to bays and estuaries on the Eastern Coast of Canada for their interest in shellfish aquaculture. Current velocities have been computed by using a 2 dimensional grid of elements and circulation patterns were summarized by averaging Eulerian flows between adjacent elements. Flows and volumes allow computing probabilities of transition between elements and to assess the average time needed by virtual particles to move from one element to another, the rate of transfer between two elements, and the average residence time of each system. We also combined transfer rates and times to assess the main pathways of virtual particles released in farmed areas and the potential influence of farmed areas on other areas. We suggest that Markov chain is complementary to other sets of ecological indicators proposed to analyse the interactions between farmed areas - e.g. depletion index, carrying capacity assessment. Markov Chain has several advantages with respect to the estimation of connectivity between pair of sites. It makes possible to estimate transfer rates and times at once in a very quick and efficient way, without the need to perform long term simulations of particle or tracer concentration.

Nonlinear development of matrix-converter instabilities

Matrix converters convert a three-phase alternating-current power supply to a power supply of a different peak voltage and frequency, and are an emerging technology in a wide variety of applications. However, they are susceptible to an instability, whose behaviour is examined herein. The desired “steady-state” mode of operation of the matrix converter becomes unstable in a Hopf bifurcation as the output/input voltage transfer ratio, q, is increased through some threshold value, qc. Through weakly nonlinear analysis and direct numerical simulation of an averaged model, we show that this bifurcation is subcritical for typical parameter values, leading to hysteresis in the transition to the oscillatory state: there may thus be undesirable large-amplitude oscillations in the output voltages even when q is below the linear stability threshold value qc.