979 resultados para Market simulation
Resumo:
It is questionable whether activities like construction, including maintenance and repair, can be considered a single entity or industry - on the basis that different sectors of construction/maintenance use fundamentally distinct resource and skill bases. This creates a number of issues including the development of competition and reform policy. de Valance deployed the Structure-Conduct-Performance model (SCP) to delineate sectors of new/installation construction activity and, in doing so, proposes that there exists multiple market structures in a given project. The purpose of this paper is to apply the SCP model to a different sector of construction activity, that is air conditioning maintenance and test de Valance's proposition concerning the existence of multiple market structures in a supply chain but this time to a built facility. The research method combines secondary data concerning the "Structure" component of the SCP model and primary data with regard to the "Conduct" and "Performance" parts of the SCP model. The results provide further support (beyond de Valance's analysis of new/installation activity) that a sector system approach using the SCP model is a more effective way to analyse market structures in construction activity. This paper also supports de Valance's proposition concerning the existence of multiple market structures in a supply chain to a project/facility.
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In recent years, the transport simulation of large road networks has become far more rapid and detailed, and many exciting developments in this field have emerged. In this perspective, the authors describe the simulation of automobile, pedestrian and rail traffic, coupled to new applications, such as the embedding of traffic simulation into driving simulators, to give a more realistic environment of driver behavior surrounding the subject vehicle.
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The capacity of the internet to handle micro-transactions and to cater to niche markets is a boon for some areas of the creative industries, which have always been associated with smallscale micro business activities. This paper looks at the specific case of the specialist Social Networking Site Ravelry: a site for knitters, crocheters, spinners and dyers. It traces the interactions between amateurs and professionals through the emergence of social networking sites. An analytic framework of social network markets (see Potts, Cunningham, Hartley and Omerod, 2008) is employed to allow for the inclusion of amateur, social, semi-professional,professional and institutional actors within a networked sphere of activity, rather than excluding some of these actors as outside of recognised value-production. The reliance on social networks to determine the economic success of design, production and consumption is exemplified in this small scale example. This paper eschews the dichotomy of commercial and non-commercial by bringing to the fore the hybridity of this site where financial and social economies co-exist.
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The paper examines the decision by Australian Real Estate Trusts (A-REITs) to issue seasoned equity offerings from 2000 - 2008 and stock market reaction to the offerings using panel data and event study methodologies, respectively. The global financial crisis has resulted in freezing of the Australian bond markets, with several A-REITs left with seasoned equity issuance and asset sales as the only viable modes of raising additional capital. The findings review that leverage and operating risk are negative significant determinants of seasoned equity offerings; profitability and growth opportunities are positive significant determinants. Of the structure and type of properties held by the A-REIT, only stapled management structure and international operations are significant determinants. Type of properties held by A-REITs show inconsistent results. Similar to previous studies of seasoned equity offerings, we find a significant negative abnormal return associated with their announcement and no evidence of excessive leakage of information. Cross-sectional regressions show that the issued amount raised and leverage are significant factors affecting abnormal returns.
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Aim: In the current climate of medical education, there is an ever-increasing demand for and emphasis on simulation as both a teaching and training tool. The objective of our study was to compare the realism and practicality of a number of artificial blood products that could be used for high-fidelity simulation. Method: A literature and internet search was performed and 15 artificial blood products were identified from a variety of sources. One product was excluded due to its potential toxicity risks. Five observers, blinded to the products, performed two assessments on each product using an evaluation tool with 14 predefined criteria including color, consistency, clotting, and staining potential to manikin skin and clothing. Each criterion was rated using a five-point Likert scale. The products were left for 24 hours, both refrigerated and at room temperature, and then reassessed. Statistical analysis was performed to identify the most suitable products, and both inter- and intra-rater variability were examined. Results: Three products scored consistently well with all five assessors, with one product in particular scoring well in almost every criterion. This highest-rated product had a mean rating of 3.6 of 5.0 (95% posterior Interval 3.4-3.7). Inter-rater variability was minor with average ratings varying from 3.0 to 3.4 between the highest and lowest scorer. Intrarater variability was negligible with good agreement between first and second rating as per weighted kappa scores (K = 0.67). Conclusion: The most realistic and practical form of artificial blood identified was a commercial product called KD151 Flowing Blood Syrup. It was found to be not only realistic in appearance but practical in terms of storage and stain removal.
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Objective The review addresses two distinct sets of issues: 1. specific functionality, interface, and calculation problems that presumably can be fixed or improved; and 2. the more fundamental question of whether the system is close to being ready for ‘commercial prime time’ in the North American market. Findings Many of our comments relate to the first set of issues, especially sections B and C. Sections D and E deal with the second set. Overall, we feel that LCADesign represents a very impressive step forward in the ongoing quest to link CAD with LCA tools and, more importantly, to link the world of architectural practice and that of environmental research. From that perspective, it deserves continued financial support as a research project. However, if the decision is whether or not to continue the development program from a purely commercial perspective, we are less bullish. In terms of the North American market, there are no regulatory or other drivers to press design teams to use a tool of this nature. There is certainly interest in this area, but the tools must be very easy to use with little or no training. Understanding the results is as important in this regard as knowing how to apply the tool. Our comments are fairly negative when it comes to that aspect. Our opinion might change to some degree when the ‘fixes’ are made and the functionality improved. However, as discussed in more detail in the following sections, we feel that the multi-step process — CAD to IFC to LCADesign — could pose a serious problem in terms of market acceptance. The CAD to IFC part is impossible for us to judge with the information provided, and we can’t even begin to answer the question about the ease of using the software to import designs, but it appears cumbersome from what we do know. There does appear to be a developing North American market for 3D CAD, with a recent survey indicating that about 50% of the firms use some form of 3D modeling for about 75% of their projects. However, this does not mean that full 3D CAD is always being used. Our information suggests that AutoDesk accounts for about 75 to 80% of the 3D CAD market, and they are very cautious about any links that do not serve a latent demand. Finally, other system that link CAD to energy simulation are using XML data transfer protocols rather than IFC files, and it is our understanding that the market served by AutoDesk tends in that direction right now. This is a subject that is outside our area of expertise, so please take these comments as suggestions for more intensive market research rather than as definitive findings.
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This report fully summarises a project designed to enhance commercial real estate performance within both operational and investment contexts through the development of a model aimed at supporting improved decision-making. The model is based on a risk adjusted discounted cash flow, providing a valuable toolkit for building managers, owners, and potential investors for evaluating individual building performance in terms of financial, social and environmental criteria over the complete life-cycle of the asset. The ‘triple bottom line’ approach to the evaluation of commercial property has much significance for the administrators of public property portfolios in particular. It also has applications more generally for the wider real estate industry given that the advent of ‘green’ construction requires new methods for evaluating both new and existing building stocks. The research is unique in that it focuses on the accuracy of the input variables required for the model. These key variables were largely determined by market-based research and an extensive literature review, and have been fine-tuned with extensive testing. In essence, the project has considered probability-based risk analysis techniques that required market-based assessment. The projections listed in the partner engineers’ building audit reports of the four case study buildings were fed into the property evaluation model developed by the research team. The results are strongly consistent with previously existing, less robust evaluation techniques. And importantly, this model pioneers an approach for taking full account of the triple bottom line, establishing a benchmark for related research to follow. The project’s industry partners expressed a high degree of satisfaction with the project outcomes at a recent demonstration seminar. The project in its existing form has not been geared towards commercial applications but it is anticipated that QDPW and other industry partners will benefit greatly by using this tool for the performance evaluation of property assets. The project met the objectives of the original proposal as well as all the specified milestones. The project has been completed within budget and on time. This research project has achieved the objective by establishing research foci on the model structure, the key input variable identification, the drivers of the relevant property markets, the determinants of the key variables (Research Engine no.1), the examination of risk measurement, the incorporation of risk simulation exercises (Research Engine no.2), the importance of both environmental and social factors and, finally the impact of the triple bottom line measures on the asset (Research Engine no. 3).
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The report presents a methodology for whole of life cycle cost analysis of alternative treatment options for bridge structures, which require rehabilitation. The methodology has been developed after a review of current methods and establishing that a life cycle analysis based on a probabilistic risk approach has many advantages including the essential ability to consider variability of input parameters. The input parameters for the analysis are identified as initial cost, maintenance, monitoring and repair cost, user cost and failure cost. The methodology utilizes the advanced simulation technique of Monte Carlo simulation to combine a number of probability distributions to establish the distribution of whole of life cycle cost. In performing the simulation, the need for a powerful software package, which would work with spreadsheet program, has been identified. After exploring several products on the market, @RISK software has been selected for the simulation. In conclusion, the report presents a typical decision making scenario considering two alternative treatment options.
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The Queensland Department of Public Works (DPW) holds a significant interest in the Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) in controlling approximately 20 percent of the office space within its confines. This comprises a total of 333,903 square metres of space, of which 170,111 square metres is owned and 163,792 square metres is leased from the private sector. The department’s nominal ownership extends to several enduring, landmark buildings as well as several modern office towers. The portfolio includes the oldest building in the CBD, being the former Commissariat Stores building and one of the newest, a 15,000 square metre office tower under construction at 33 Charlotte Street.
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Scoliosis is a spinal deformity, involving a side-to-side curvature of the spine in the coronal plane as well as a rotation of the spinal column in the transverse plane. The coronal curvature is measured using a Cobb angle. If the deformity is severe, treatment for scoliosis may require surgical intervention whereby a rod is attached to the spinal column to correct the abnormal curvature. In order to provide surgeons with an improved ability to predict the likely outcomes following surgery, techniques to create patient-specific finite element models (FEM) of scoliosis patients treated at the Mater Children’s Hospital (MCH) in Brisbane are being developed and validated. This paper presents a comparison of the simulated and clinical data for a scoliosis patient treated at MCH.
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The healing process for bone fractures is sensitive to mechanical stability and blood supply at the fracture site. Most currently available mechanobiological algorithms of bone healing are based solely on mechanical stimuli, while the explicit analysis of revascularization and its influences on the healing process have not been thoroughly investigated in the literature. In this paper, revascularization was described by two separate processes: angiogenesis and nutrition supply. The mathematical models for angiogenesis and nutrition supply have been proposed and integrated into an existing fuzzy algorithm of fracture healing. The computational algorithm of fracture healing, consisting of stress analysis, analyses of angiogenesis and nutrient supply, and tissue differentiation, has been tested on and compared with animal experimental results published previously. The simulation results showed that, for a small and medium-sized fracture gap, the nutrient supply is sufficient for bone healing, for a large fracture gap, non-union may be induced either by deficient nutrient supply or inadequate mechanical conditions. The comparisons with experimental results demonstrated that the improved computational algorithm is able to simulate a broad spectrum of fracture healing cases and to predict and explain delayed unions and non-union induced by large gap sizes and different mechanical conditions. The new algorithm will allow the simulation of more realistic clinical fracture healing cases with various fracture gaps and geometries and may be helpful to optimise implants and methods for fracture fixation.
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In Australia there is growing interest in a national curriculum to replace the variety of matriculation credentials managed by State Education departments, ostensibly to address increasing population mobility. Meanwhile, the International Baccalaureate (IB) is attracting increasing interest and enrolments in State and private schools in Australia, and has been considered as one possible model for a proposed Australian Certificate of Education. This paper will review the construction of this curriculum in Australian public discourse as an alternative frame for producing citizens, and ask why this design appeals now, to whom, and how the phenomenon of its growing appeal might inform national curricular debates. The IB’s emergence is understood with reference to the larger context of neo-liberal marketization policies, neo-conservative claims on the curriculum and middle class strategy. The paper draws on public domain documents from the IB Organisation and newspaper reportage to demonstrate how the IB is constructed for public consumption in Australia.
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Simulation is widely used as a tool for analyzing business processes but is mostly focused on examining abstract steady-state situations. Such analyses are helpful for the initial design of a business process but are less suitable for operational decision making and continuous improvement. Here we describe a simulation system for operational decision support in the context of workflow management. To do this we exploit not only the workflow’s design, but also use logged data describing the system’s observed historic behavior, and incorporate information extracted about the current state of the workflow. Making use of actual data capturing the current state and historic information allows our simulations to accurately predict potential near-future behaviors for different scenarios. The approach is supported by a practical toolset which combines and extends the workflow management system YAWL and the process mining framework ProM.