Analysis of the intermediate housing market mechanism in the UK

Government policies have backed intermediate housing market mechanisms like shared equity, intermediate rented and shared ownership (SO) as potential routes for some households, who are otherwise squeezed between the social housing and the private market. The rhetoric deployed around such housing has regularly contained claims about its social progressiveness and role in facilitating socio-economic mobility, centring on a claim that SO schemes can encourage people to move from rented accommodation through a shared equity phase and into full owner-occupation. SO has been justified on the grounds of it being transitional state, rather than a permanent tenure. However SO buyers may be laden with economic cost-benefit structures that do not stack up evenly and as a consequence there may be little realistic prospect of ever reaching a preferred outcome. Such behaviours have received little empirical attention as yet despite, the SO model arguably offers a sub-optimal solution towards homeownership, or in terms of wider quality of life. Given the paucity of rigorous empirical work on this issue, this paper delineates the evidence so far and sets out a research agenda. Our analysis is based on a large dataset of new shared owners, observing an information base that spans the past decade. We then set out an agenda to further examine the behaviours of the SO occupants and to examine the implications for future public policy based on existing literature and our outline findings. This paper is particularly opportune at a time of economic uncertainty and an overriding ‘austerity’ drive in public funding in the UK, through which SO schemes have enjoyed support uninterruptedly thus far.

"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

International investment, ownership and risk in the City of London office market: an analysis of trends 1972-1997

Office returns in the City of London are more volatile than in other UK markets. This volatility may reflect fluctuations in capital flows associated with changing patterns of ownership and the growing linkage between real estate and financial markets in the City. Using current and historical data, patterns of ownership in the City are investigated. They reveal that overseas ownership has grown markedly since 1985, that owners are predominantly FIRE sector firms and that there are strong links between ownership and occupation. This raises concerns about future volatility and systemic risk.

Developing construction professional services in the international market: SWOT analysis of China

Construction professional services (CPSs), such as architecture, engineering, and consultancy, are not only high value-added profit centers in their own right but also have a knock-on effect on other businesses, such as construction and the export of materials and machinery. Arguably, competition in the international construction market has shifted to these knowledge-intensive CPS areas. Yet CPSs represent a research frontier that has received scant attention. This research aims to enrich the body of knowledge on CPSs by examining strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of Chinese CPSs (CCPSs) in the international context. It does so by triangulating theories with quantitative and qualitative data gleaned from yearbooks, annual reports, interviews, seminars, and interactions with managers in major CCPS companies. It is found that CCPSs present both strengths and weaknesses in talents, administration systems, and development strategies in dealing with the external opportunities and threats brought about by globalization and market evolution. Low price, which has helped the Chinese construction business to succeed in the international market, is also a major CCPS strength. An opportunity for CCPSs is the relatively strong delivery capability possessed by Chinese contractors; by partnering with them CCPSs can better establish themselves in the international arena. This is probably the first ever comprehensive study on the performance of CCPSs in the international marketplace. The research is conducted at an opportune time, particularly when the world is witnessing the burgeoning force of Chinese businesses in many areas including manufacturing, construction, and, potentially, professional services. It adds new insights to the knowledge body of CPSs and provides valuable references to other countries faced with the challenge of developing CPS business efficiently in the international market.

Developing construction professional services in the international market: a SWOT analysis of China

In contrast to their bustling construction counterparts, Chinese construction professional services (CPS) such as architecture, engineering, and consultancy, seem still to be stagnant in the international market. CPS are not only high value-added profit centers in their own right, but also have a knock-on effect on subsequent businesses such as construction, and the export of materials and machinery. Arguably, competition in the international construction market has shifted to knowledge-intensive CPS. Yet,CPS represent a research area that has been paid scant attention. This research aims to add to the body of knowledge of CPS by examining strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of Chinese CPS (CCPS) in the international context. It does so by triangulating theories with quantitative and qualitative data gleaned from yearbooks, annual reports, interviews, seminars, and interactions with managers in major CCPS companies. It is found that CCPS present both strengths and weaknesses in talents, administration systems, and development strategies in dealing with the external opportunities and threats brought about by globalization and market evolvement. Low price, which has helped the Chinese construction business to succeed in the international market, is also a CCPS major strength. An opportunity for CCPS is the relatively strong delivery capability possessed by Chinese contractors. By partnering with them CCPS can better edge into the international arena. This is probably the first ever comprehensive study in investigating the performance of CCPS in the international market. The research is also timely, particularly when the world is witnessing the burgeoning force of Chinese businesses in many areas including manufacturing, construction, and potentially, professional services.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

Analysis of Structure and Tendencies of Qualified Immigrant Workforce on the Swedish Labor Market

The purpose of this paper is to make quantitative and qualitative analysis of foreign citizens who may participate on the Swedish labor market (in text refers to as ‘immigrants’). This research covers the period 1973-2005 and gives prediction figures of immigrant population, age and gender structure, and education attainment in 2010. To cope with data regarding immigrants from different countries, the population was divided into six groups. The main chapter is divided into two parts. The first part specifies division of immigrants into groups by country of origin according to geographical, ethnical, economical and historical criteria. Brief characteristics and geographic position, dynamic and structure description were given for each group; historical review explain rapid changes in immigrant population. Statistical models for description and estimation future population were given. The second part specifies education and qualification level of the immigrants according to international and Swedish standards. Models for estimating age and gender structure, level of education and professional orientation of immigrants in different groups are given. Inferences were made regarding ethnic, gender and education structure of immigrants; the distribution of immigrants among Swedish counties is given. Discussion part presents the results of the research, gives perspectives for the future brief evaluation of the role of immigrants on the Swedish labor market.