191 resultados para MLE
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Cet entretien porte sur le parcours intellectuel de Jacques Fontanille, fondateur du Centre de Recherches Sémiotiques de l’Université de Limoges et responsable du Séminaire Intersémiotique de Paris, théoricien dont l’activité scientifique se mêle au parcours historique et théorique de la Sémiotique d’origine greimassienne. Dans cette interview par courrier électronique réalisée l’été 2006, Fontanille parle des épisodes qui ont marqué les débuts de son travail comme sémioticien et notamment dês développements les plus récents de la Sémiotique.
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Pós-graduação em Matematica Aplicada e Computacional - FCT
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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The paper talks about the education of persons with disabilities severe mental retardation based on the idea of Reuven Feuerstein mediation. The collected data were analysed mainly under the focus quantitative, allowing extraction of details of everyday life investigated. Aims to describe and analyze the implementation process their educational, focusing on teaching strategies used by Special Education teachers in the Araraquara’s city. In addition, seeks to address the educational process of a population slightly investigated by uniting two strands of thread in an innovative way: the Theory of Structural Cognitive Modifiability (SCM) and Reuven Feuerstein education of students with severe cognitive impairment. The methodology initiated by the establishment of the teacher’s profile, their mapping and location. Data collection was achieved through three instruments: interviews with teachers, observation protocol and field diary for registration. Our results describe the work of a teacher, showing their practice, and enlist the pedagogical strategies used, mainly those related to the criteria medication. According to the Theory of Structural Cognitive Modifiability (SCM) and the idea of Mediated Learning Experience (MLE), the teacher acts as mediator, interposing themselves between stimuli the environment and the student. The work of the teacher observed indicates that the environment and the student. The work of the teacher observed indicates that she exerts her functions in teaching using pedagogical strategies which are found in her heart, precepts essential to mediation. This shows it is possible to associate the ideas of Feuerstein practices aimed at teaching students with severe mental disabilities.
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Regression coefficients specify the partial effect of a regressor on the dependent variable. Sometimes the bivariate or limited multivariate relationship of that regressor variable with the dependent variable is known from population-level data. We show here that such population- level data can be used to reduce variance and bias about estimates of those regression coefficients from sample survey data. The method of constrained MLE is used to achieve these improvements. Its statistical properties are first described. The method constrains the weighted sum of all the covariate-specific associations (partial effects) of the regressors on the dependent variable to equal the overall association of one or more regressors, where the latter is known exactly from the population data. We refer to those regressors whose bivariate or limited multivariate relationships with the dependent variable are constrained by population data as being ‘‘directly constrained.’’ Our study investigates the improvements in the estimation of directly constrained variables as well as the improvements in the estimation of other regressor variables that may be correlated with the directly constrained variables, and thus ‘‘indirectly constrained’’ by the population data. The example application is to the marital fertility of black versus white women. The difference between white and black women’s rates of marital fertility, available from population-level data, gives the overall association of race with fertility. We show that the constrained MLE technique both provides a far more powerful statistical test of the partial effect of being black and purges the test of a bias that would otherwise distort the estimated magnitude of this effect. We find only trivial reductions, however, in the standard errors of the parameters for indirectly constrained regressors.
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In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.
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The aim of many genetic studies is to locate the genomic regions (called quantitative trait loci, QTLs) that contribute to variation in a quantitative trait (such as body weight). Confidence intervals for the locations of QTLs are particularly important for the design of further experiments to identify the gene or genes responsible for the effect. Likelihood support intervals are the most widely used method to obtain confidence intervals for QTL location, but the non-parametric bootstrap has also been recommended. Through extensive computer simulation, we show that bootstrap confidence intervals are poorly behaved and so should not be used in this context. The profile likelihood (or LOD curve) for QTL location has a tendency to peak at genetic markers, and so the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of QTL location has the unusual feature of point masses at genetic markers; this contributes to the poor behavior of the bootstrap. Likelihood support intervals and approximate Bayes credible intervals, on the other hand, are shown to behave appropriately.
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But de l’étude L’effet antihypertenseur de la dénervation rénale chez les patients hypertendus s’explique partiellement par une augmentation de la natriurèse tubulaire. Pour étudier une contribution possible du système kallikréine-kinines (SKK) à cette natriurèse dans le rat, nous avons dosé dans le plasma et dans les tissus l’activité de la kallikréine (AK) et la concentration de la bradykinine (BK). Méthodes Pour AK, nous avons adapté et validé un essai enzymatique qui libère la para-nitroaniline à partir du tripeptide H-D-Pro-Phe-Arg-pNA ; les coefficients de variation (CV) intra-essai et inter-essai étaient inférieurs à 8 % pour AK plasmatique et tissulaire (plasma n = 6 et 13, tissu n = 4). La linéarité d’une série de dilutions confirmait la spécificité de l’essai. Le dosage de BK tissulaire se basait sur une méthode établie pour le plasma : tissus étaient homogénéisés et BK extraite et isolée par éthanol et HPLC, et finalement quantifiée par radio-immunoessai. Les CV intra- et inter-essai pour BK étaient 18 % dans le plasma (n = 8 et n = 35) et inférieurs à 16 % dans différents tissus (n = 5–8). Résultats Chez le rat mâle Wistar (n = 3), la BK plasmatique était de 8,2 ± 6,6 fmol/mL (M ± SD) et la BK tissulaire (fmol/g) variait, pour les 14 organes testés, de 14 ± 3 pour le cerveau à 521 ± 315 pour la glande sous-maxillaire. Six jours après dénervation rénale gauche, la BK rénale gauche (89 ± 9) n’était pas différente comparée à la BK rénale droite (75 ± 23). De même, l’AK était identique dans les deux reins (gauche 18,0 ± 1,5, droit 15,8 ± 1,4 μkat/g). Conclusion Un effet éventuel de la dénervation rénale unilatéral sur le SKK rénal devrait donc être bilatéral.
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Adenosine is a purinergic signaling molecule that regulates various aspects of inflammation and has been implicated in the pathogenesis of chronic lung diseases. Previous studies have demonstrated that adenosine up-regulates IL-6 production through the engagement of the A2B adenosine receptor in various cell types, including alveolar macrophages. IL-6 is elevated in mouse models and humans with chronic lung disease, suggesting a potential role in disease progression. Furthermore, chronic elevation of adenosine in the lungs of adenosine deaminase deficient (Ada-/-) mice leads to the development of pulmonary inflammation, alveolar destruction, and fibrosis, in conjunction with IL-6 elevation. Thus, it was hypothesized that IL-6 contributes to pulmonary inflammation and fibrosis in this model. To test this hypothesis, Ada/IL-6 double knockout mice (Ada/IL-6-/-) were generated to assess the consequences of genetically removing IL-6 on adenosine-dependent pulmonary injury. Ada/IL-6-/- mice exhibited a significant reduction in inflammation, alveolar destruction, and pulmonary fibrosis. Next, Ada-/- mice were treated systematically with IL-6 neutralizing antibodies to test the efficacy of blocking IL-6 on chronic lung disease. These treatments were associated with decreased pulmonary inflammation, alveolar destruction, and fibrosis. To determine the role of IL-6 in a second model of pulmonary fibrosis, wild type mice and IL-6-/- mice were subjected to intraperitoneal injections of bleomycin twice a week for four weeks. Results demonstrated that IL-6-/- mice developed reduced pulmonary fibrosis. To examine a therapeutic approach in this model, wild type mice exposed to bleomycin were treated with IL-6 neutralizing antibodies. Similar results were observed as with Ada-/- mice, namely diminished pulmonary inflammation and fibrosis. In both models, elevations in IL-6 were associated with increased phosphorylated STAT-3 in the nuclei of numerous cell types in the airways, including type II alveolar epithelial cells (AEC). Genetic removal and neutralization of IL-6 in both models was associated with decreased STAT-3 activation in type II AEC. The mechanism of activation in these cells that lack the membrane bound IL-6Ra suggests IL-6 trans-signaling may play a role in regulating fibrosis. Characterization of this mechanism demonstrated that the soluble IL-6Ra (sIL-6Ra) is upregulated in both models during chronic conditions. In vitro studies in MLE-12 alveolar epithelial cells confirmed that IL-6, in combination with the sIL-6Ra, activates STAT-3 and TWIST in association with enhancement of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition, which can contribute to fibrosis. Similarly, patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis demonstrated a similar pattern of increased IL-6 expression, STAT-3 activation, and sIL-6Ra increases. These findings demonstrate that adenosine-dependent elevations in IL-6 contribute to the development and progression of pulmonary inflammation and fibrosis. The implications from these studies are that adenosine and/or IL-6 neutralizing agents represent novel therapeutic targets for the treatment of pulmonary disorders where fibrosis is a detrimental component.
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We compare six high-resolution Holocene, sediment cores along a S-N transect on the Norwegian-Svalbard continental margin from ca 60°N to 77.4°N, northern North Atlantic. Planktonic foraminifera in the cores were investigated to show the changes in upper surface and subsurface water mass distribution and properties, including summer sea-surface temperatures (SST). The cores are located below the axis of the Norwegian Current and the West Spitsbergen Current, which today transport warm Atlantic Water to the Arctic. Sediment accumulation rates are generally high at all the core sites, allowing for a temporal resolution of 10-102 years. SST is reconstructed using different types of transfer functions, resulting in very similar SST trends, with deviations of no more than +- 1.0/1.5 °C. A transfer function based on the maximum likelihood statistical approach is found to be most relevant. The reconstruction documents an abrupt change in planktonic foraminiferal faunal composition and an associated warming at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition. The earliest part of the Holocene was characterized by large temperature variability, including the Preboreal Oscillations and the 8.2 k event. In general, the early Holocene was characterized by SSTs similar to those of today in the south and warmer than today in the north, and a smaller S-N temperature gradient (0.23 °C/°N) compared to the present temperature gradient (0.46 °C/°N). The southern proxy records (60-69°N) were more strongly influenced by slightly cooler subsurface water probably due to the seasonality of the orbital forcing and increased stratification due to freshening. The northern records (72-77.4°N) display a millennial-scale change associated with reduced insolation and a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The observed northwards amplification of the early Holocene warming is comparable to the pattern of recent global warming and future climate modelling, which predicts greater warming at higher latitudes. The overall trend during mid and late Holocene was a cooling in the north, stable or weak warming in the south, and a maximum S-N SST gradient of ca 0.7 °C/°N at 5000 cal. years BP. Superimposed on this trend were several abrupt temperature shifts. Four of these shifts, dated to 9000-8000, 5500-3000 and 1000 and ~400 cal. years BP, appear to be global, as they correlate with periods of global climate change. In general, there is a good correlation between the northern North Atlantic temperature records and climate records from Norway and Svalbard.
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A new microtiter-plate dilution method was applied during the expedition ANTARKTIS-XI/2 with RV Polarstern to determine the distribution of copiotrophic and oligotrophic bacteria in the water columns at polar fronts. Twofold serial dilutions were performed with an eight-channel Electrapette in 96-wells plates by mixing 150 µl of seawater with 150 µl of copiotrophic or olitrophic Trypticase-Broth, three times per well. After incubation of about 6 month at 2 °C, turbidities were measured with an eight-channel photometer at 405 nm and combinations of positive test results for three consecutive dilutions chosen and compared with a Most Probable Number table, calculated for 8 replicates and twofold serial dilutions. Densities of 12 to 661 cells/ml for copiotrophs, and 1 to 39 cells/ml for oligotrophs were found. Colony Forming Units on copiotrophic Trypticase-Agar were between 6 and 847 cells/ml, which is in the same range as determined with the MPN method.