Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.

Intestinal Helminthiasis and Anaemia in Youngsters from Matriz da Luz, District of São Lourenço da Mata, State of Pernambuco, Brazil

A group of youngsters (4-18 years old) in northeast Brazil was studied to establish the prevalence of anaemia and intestinal parasitism, as well as to analyze the correlation between them. Two criteria were used to determine the state of anaemia, the level of haemoglobin and the mean of corpuscular volume. The first was considered a single criterion and the second an associated criteria, used in an attempt to correlate anaemia with iron deficiency. The prevalence of intestinal parasitism was 93%, while the prevalence of anaemia was 43.1% and 16.1% according to the criteria employed (single or associated respectively). Anaemia was significantly associated with both sex and age. No significant statistical difference was observed when the association was made between each parasite and anaemia even with those more related to anaemia.

Spin-labeling coronary MR angiography with steady-state free precession and radial k-space sampling: initial results in healthy volunteers.

The purpose of this study was to prospectively compare free-breathing navigator-gated cardiac-triggered three-dimensional steady-state free precession (SSFP) spin-labeling coronary magnetic resonance (MR) angiography performed by using Cartesian k-space sampling with that performed by using radial k-space sampling. A new dedicated placement of the two-dimensional selective labeling pulse and an individually adjusted labeling delay time approved by the institutional review board were used. In 14 volunteers (eight men, six women; mean age, 28.8 years) who gave informed consent, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), vessel sharpness, vessel length, and subjective image quality were investigated. Differences between groups were analyzed with nonparametric tests (Wilcoxon, Pearson chi2). Radial imaging, as compared with Cartesian imaging, resulted in a significant reduction in the severity of motion artifacts, as well as an increase in SNR (26.9 vs 12.0, P < .05) in the coronary arteries and CNR (23.1 vs 8.8, P < .05) between the coronary arteries and the myocardium. A tendency toward improved vessel sharpness and vessel length was also found with radial imaging. Radial SSFP imaging is a promising technique for spin-labeling coronary MR angiography.

Community ecology of the metazoan parasites of white croaker, Micropogonias furnieri (Osteichthyes: Sciaenidae), from the coastal zone of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

One hundred specimens of white croakers, Micropogonias furnieri (Desmarest 1823) (Osteichthyes: Sciaenidae) collected from Pedra de Guaratiba (23°01'S, 43°38'W), State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from September 1997 to August 1999, were necropsied to study their parasites. The majority of the fish (95%) were parasitized by metazoan. Twenty-eight species of parasites were collected. The nematodes were the 40.5% of the total number of parasites specimens collected. Dichelyne elongatus was the most dominant species. Lobatostoma ringens, Pterinotrematoides mexicanum, Corynosoma australe, D. elongatus, and Caligus haemulonis showed a positive correlation between the host's total length and parasite prevalence and abundance. The monogenean P. mexicanum had differences in the prevalence and abundance in relation to sex of the host. The mean diversity in the infracommunities of M. furnieri was H=0.499±0.411, with correlation with the host's total length and without differences in relation to sex of the host. One pair of ectoparasites showed positive covariation, and two pairs of endoparasites showed positive association and covariation between their prevalences and abundances, respectively. Negative association or covariations were not found. The dominance of endoparasites in the croakers parasite infracommunities reinforced the differences found in sciaenids from the South American Pacific Ocean, in which the ectoparasites are dominant.

Community ecology of the metazoan parasites of pink cusk-eel, Genypterus brasiliensis (Osteichthyes: Ophidiidae), from the coastal zone of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Fifty-five specimens of pink cusk-eel, Genypterus brasiliensis Regan, 1903 (Osteichthyes: Ophidiidae) collected from the coastal zone of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (approx. 21-23°S, 41-45°W), from September 2000 to January 2001, were necropsied to study their parasites. All fish were parasitized by one or more metazoan. Fourteen species of parasites were collected. G. brasiliensis is a new host record for nine parasite species. The larval stages of cestodes and the nematodes were the majority of the parasite specimens collected, with 38.4% and 36.5%, respectively. Cucullanus genypteri was the dominant species with highest prevalence and/or abundance. The parasites of G. brasiliensis showed the typical overdispersed pattern of distribution. Six parasite species showed correlation between the host's total body length and prevalence and abundance. Host sex did not influence prevalence and parasite abundance of any parasite species. The mean diversity in the infracommunities of G. brasiliensis was H= 0.364 ± 0.103, with correlation with the host's total length and without differences in relation to sex of the host. One pair of adult endoparasites (C. genypteri and A. brasiliensis) showed positive covariations between their abundances. Negative association or covariation was not found. Differences between the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the parasite community of G. brasiliensis from Rio de Janeiro and Argentina suggest the existence of two population stocks of pink cusk-eel in the South America Atlantic Ocean.

Schistosomiasis mansoni in Bananal (State of São Paulo, Brazil): III. Seroepidemiological studies in the Palha District

The Palha district, municipality of Bananal, State of São Paulo, Brazil, had 10.3% cases of Schistosoma mansoni diagnosed from 1994 to 2000 by coproscopy: about three times the municipality average. The immunofluorescent antibody test was used to assess gut-associated IgM antibody titers of samples from 452 inhabitants. It disclosed 129 (28.5%) positive cases. Subjects were classified according to age, sex, birthplace, and period of residence. Titers varied from 8 to 4,096 (geometric mean: 170.2). Seropositives were aged from 6 to 69 years (average: 24.5), 75% of them aged 34 or less, predominantly males (78 or 60.5%). Of all subjects, 65.7% were born and had been living in Bananal since; 24.2% came from neighboring municipalities and are residing in Bananal from two months to 89 years (average: 22.7 years). Further Kato-Katz coproscopy from 97 seropositives (geometric mean titer, 619) revealed S. mansoni eggs in 11 subjects (11.3%). Serology was deemed useful in screening subjects to be further investigated by coproscopy, considering that blood collection had better acceptance than supplying fecal samples. Higher than average serological titers may indicate new cases in endemic areas. Longitudinal studies associated with epidemiological investigation, including titer evolution are advised, as isolated data are difficult to interpret.

The patterns of tungiasis in Araruama township, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

This paper describes patterns of infestation with Tunga penetrans (L., 1758) within the poor community of Araruama municipality, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, assessed by the number of persons and domestic animals parasitized. The overall prevalence of infestation was 49.2% (211 parasitized hosts) of the 429 examined. Humans (p < 0.01) and dogs (p < 0.01) were the most important hosts with 62.6% and 35.6% respectively. Dogs were considered as the potential infestation source to humans. Considering sex and age groups, both measures showed a significant difference (p < 0.01): female (62.2% infested of 143 examined) and male (43.9% infested of 98 examined). All age classes were found infested with significant difference (G = 42.5; p < 0.01) and most of the infestation occurred in children in the 0-9-year old category (27.3%). In contrast and based on mean of chigoe burden per person, the parasitic intensity was significantly higher on male than on female in all age categories, except for the 50+ (H = 27.1; p < 0.01) and decreasing with the increase of age (chi2 = 69.7, A = -124.6, p < 0.01). Growing urbanization, improved housing and sewage systems, use of appropriate footwear, examination of the feet principally in young children, antitetanus prophylaxis and reduction of stray dogs population are the major prophylactic methods recommended.

Prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in Warao lineage communities of Delta Amacuro State, Venezuela

The purpose of this study was the evaluation of Helicobacter pylori infections in children and adults from two indigenous communities of Delta Amacuro State, Venezuela, that differ in hygienic conditions of the housing. The evaluation was performed in 98 children (mean age 7 ± 3.37 years) and their mothers (33.96 ± 13.77 years) from two communities of Warao lineage. Anti-H. pylori serum IgG and secretory anti-H. pylori IgA antibodies were de-termined, as well as total secretory IgA and H. pylori antigens in feces. Serological prevalence of H. pylori infection was 38% in children and 84% their in mothers. Children from the community that had the most deficient sanitary and hygienic conditions had significantly lower titers of specific IgG antibodies and total secretory IgA (P < 0.0001) and a high percentage of them had H. pylori antigens in their feces (P < 0.0001). The levels of specific IgA were similar in both groups. The results indicate that in these populations there is a high prevalence of H. pylori infection and that poor hygienic conditions can increase the risk of infection and damage to the gastrointestinal tract.

Trichurid nematodes in ring-necked pheasants from backyard flocks of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: frequency and pathology

The present investigation is related to the frequency of infection and to the gross and microscopic lesions associated to the presence of trichurid worms in 50 ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) from backyard flocks in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the investigated birds, the overall infection rate was of 74%, with the presence of Eucoleus perforans with 72% of prevalence and 21.2 of mean intensity, in the esophageal and crop mucosa and rarely in the junction of the proventriculus and esophagus, E. annulatus with 2% and 3 in the crop mucosa, Capillaria phasianina, with 12% and 4.3 in the cecum and small intestine and Baruscapillaria obsignata, for the first time referred in this host, with 2% and 1 in the small intestine. Clinical signs were absent. The gross lesions observed in the crop and esophagus of 14 (38.9%) pheasants parasitized with E. perforans were thickening, small nodules, congestion, and petechial haemorrhages in the mucosa. These birds presented a mean infection of 37.5 and a range of infection of 10-82. The microscopic lesions revealed chronic esophagitis with diffuse inflammatory process in the lamina propria characterized mostly by a mononuclear cell infiltrate and also with the presence of granulocytes. In the case of the parasitism of pheasants with C. phasianina, the gross lesions were absent; microscopic lesions were characterized by chronic typhlitis with mononuclear infiltrate. Gross and microscopic lesions were absent in the pheasants parasitized with E. annulatus and B. obsignata.

Efficacy of benznidazol treatment for asymptomatic chagasic patients from state of Rio Grande do Sul evaluated during a three years follow-up

The efficacy of benznidazol on the treatment of chagasic patients from the state of Rio Grande do Sul was evaluated during a three-year follow-up. A cohort of 80 asymptomatic chronic chagasic patients or blood bank donors (49 male and 31 female) was studied. Their ages varied from 17-42 years, with a mean and a median of 30 and 35 years, respectively. The 80 patients presented positive serology, hemoculture and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). They were treated with 5 mg/Kg benznidazol twice a day for 60 days. Serological, parasitological and PCR methods were used to evaluate response. Serology was performed using commercial ELISA and indirect immunofluorescence (IFI) tests, parasitemia was monitored by hemoculture in LIT medium and PCR with primers S35/S36 was used to amplify a Trypanosoma cruzi 330 bp kDNA repetitive sequence. PCR positivity of 240 seropositive individuals was compared using DNA preparations from whole blood/guanidine EDTA (GE), buffy-coat/GE and frozen buffy-coat. Fifty non-chagasic individuals were used as negative controls. PCR positivity was 86.7% for the frozen buffy-coat, 71.7% for the GE/buffy-coat and 69.2% for the GE/whole blood. The hemocultures became negative just after treatment and remained negative during the three years of follow-up. In the third year after treatment, 9/80 (11.3%) patients presented negative PCR and, from those, four also presented negative serological tests. Furthermore, a reduction in three serological titers was observed in 27/80 (33.8%) of the patients treated. Taken together, the results show that four of the 80 (5.0%) chronic chagasic patients from the state of Rio Grande do Sul were cured after treatment with benznidazol.

Isolated office hypertension: a prehypertensive state?

OBJECTIVE AND METHOD: Isolated office hypertension, defined as hypertensive blood pressure values in a medical setting but normal self-measured or ambulatory-recorded blood pressures, is frequently encountered in clinical practice. Yet, whether this condition represents a transient state in the development of a sustained ambulatory hypertension is still unknown as no long-term analysis of the evolution of ambulatory blood pressure has been carried out in patients with isolated office hypertension. To evaluate whether such patients should be considered as truly normotensive or hypertensive, we have studied the long-term changes in office and ambulatory blood pressures in 81 patients in whom isolated office hypertension was observed between 1982 and 1988. RESULTS: After a 5-6 year follow-up, 60 of the 81 patients had a mean 12 h daytime ambulatory blood pressure greater than 140/90 mmHg, suggesting an evolution towards ambulatory hypertension. The development of hypertension could not be predicted on the basis of the follow-up office blood pressures as these tended to decrease during the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that patients with isolated office hypertension should not be considered as truly normotensive individuals. Hence, these patients require a careful medical follow-up. Office blood pressure readings alone, however, do not appear to provide a good indicator of the long-term outcome of isolated office hypertension.

Total antioxidant capacity of plasma in asymptomatic carrier state of Neisseria meningitidis

Reduction of the antioxidant capacity of plasma has been linked with the impairment of an effective immune response and so we hypothesized that the carriage rate of Neisseria meningitidis in asymptomatic subjects might correlate with the levels of antioxidants in plasma. To this end we took pharyngeal swabs from 339 children in Marquesado Basic Health Zone, Granada, Spain and in addition determined the total antioxidant capacity (TAC) in plasma samples from these subjects. The overall prevalence of N. meningitidis carriage was 5.9% (mean age 7.1 years) with rates of 10.3% in children aged 3 < or =years, 3.9% between 4 and 7 years and 2.4% in older subjects. Plasma TAC for the < or =3-year-olds was 0.13 for carriers and 1.10 for non-carrier controls (P=0.04), 0.13 for carriers aged 4-7 years (controls 0.63) and 0.28 for carriers aged >7 years (controls 0.52). We analysed the association between TAC in plasma (<0.37 - 2 S.D.) and the carrier state of N. meningitidis. In the carrier state, the odds ratio for this association (TAC in plasma <0.25) was 8.44 (95% CI 1.5-48.9). These findings may suggest a reduced immune response in the host favourable to nasopharyngeal persistence of meningococci.

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis . ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.

Syphilis in HIV-infected patients: Predictors for serological failure and serofast state.

Purpose: HIV-infected patients treated for syphilis may be at increased risk for serological failure and serofast state. Our aim was to analyse serological response to treatment in HIV-infected patients diagnosed with syphilis, and factors associated with serological cure and serofast state. Methods: Open-label, no controlled study of a series of HIV- patients diagnosed with syphilis during 2004-2011. Patients were categorized by rapid plasma reagin titer (RPR) into success (4-fold decrease in RPR by 12 or 24 months after treatment of early or late syphilis), serofast (success with persistently stable reactive RPR), and failure/ re-infection ( failure to decrease 4-fold in RPR by 12 or 24 months after treatment or sustained 4-fold increase in RPR after treatment response). Results: 141 HIV- patients were diagnosed with syphilis during the study period (104 early syphilis, 36 late or indeterminate latent syphilis). The mean age was 36.3 years, 98.5% were male, and 87.2% homosexual men. In 46 (32.6%) cases, HIV and syphilis infection diagnosis were coincident (mean CD4 457/mm3 and HIV-VL 4.72 log10). Among patients with prior known HIV infection, 65 were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at syphilis diagnosis (mean CD4 469/ mm3, 76.9% undetectable HIV-VL). 116 patients satisfied criteria for serological response analysis (89 early, 24 late/indeterminate). At 12 months of early syphilis treatment (89.2% penicillin) there were 16 (18%) failures, and at 24 months of late/indeterminate syphilis (91.7% penicillin) there were 5 (18.5%) failures. Overall, 36 (31.0%) patients presented serofast state. Treatment failure was related with lower CD4 count (295 vs 510/μL; p=0.045) only in patients with coincident diagnosis. Serofast state was related with older age (41 vs 36 years; p=0.024), and lower CD4 count (391 vs 513/mm3; p=0.026). Conclusions: In this series of HIV-infected patients, with many patients on ART and with good immunological and virological parameters, serological failure and serofast state were frequent. Immunological status, and age could influence on serological response to syphilis treatment in HIV-infected patients.

Mean intrinsic tensile properties of stone groundwood fibers from softwood

Stone groundwood (SGW) is a fibrous matter commonly prepared in a high yield process, and mainly used for papermaking applications. In this work, the use of SGW fibers is explored as reinforcing element of polypropylene (PP) composites. Due to its chemical and superficial features, the use of coupling agents is needed for a good adhesion and stress transfer across the fiber-matrix interface. The intrinsic strength of the reinforcement is a key parameter to predict the mechanical properties of the composite and to perform an interface analysis. The main objective of the present work was the determination of the intrinsic tensile strength of stone groundwood fibers. Coupled and non-coupled PP composites from stone groundwood fibers were prepared. The influence of the surface morphology and the quality at interface on the final properties of the composite was analyzed and compared to that of fiberglass PP composites. The intrinsic tensile properties of stone groundwood fibers, as well as the fiber orientation factor and the interfacial shear strength of the current composites were determined