Social Europe. Can the EU again improve people's life prospects? CHALLENGE EUROPE Issue 22. Challenges and new beginnings; Priorities for the EU’s new leadership. September 2014

In the following, I will briefly review the main EU policies developed over the past five years in the field of employment and social affairs. I will put these in the context of the macroeconomic policy response during the same period and conclude by reflecting on systemic reforms which Europe needs to strengthen its economic recovery and to at last make progress towards the employment and social inclusion targets of the Europe 2020 Strategy.

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2016: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the challenges of financing for development

This, the sixty-eighth edition of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, which corresponds to the year 2016, consists of three parts. Part I outlines the region’s economic performance in 2015 and analyses trends in the first half of 2016, as well as the outlook for the rest of the year. It examines the external and internal factors influencing the region’s economic performance and highlights some of the macroeconomic policy challenges that have arisen in an external context of weak growth and high levels of uncertainty. Part II analyses the challenges that the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean face at the domestic and international levels in mobilizing financing for development. On the domestic front, slower growth and tighter fiscal restrictions pose significant challenges for the mobilization of resources. Externally, the classification of many of the region’s countries in the middle-income category limits their access to concessional external financing or international support. Part III of this publication may be accessed on the web page of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (www.eclac.org). It contains the notes relating to the economic performance of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2015 and the first half of 2016, together with their respective statistical annexes. The cut-off date for updating the statistical information in this publication was 30 June 2016.

Rethinking the labour movement in the "new South Africa"

The socio-economic system underpinning apartheid in South Africa was based on the exploitation of black workers in the mines, the factories, the fields and the shops. It is widely recognized that the struggles of the South African black working class contributed decisively to the overthrow of the racist regime. In recognition of the power of organised labour, the democratic government elected in 1994 granted South Africa's unions unprecedented legal and constitutional rights. However, despite these gains, the country's labour movement has been facing a fresh set of challenges, from macroeconomic policy to the factory floor, many of them emanating from labour’s political allies in Government. The purpose of this book is to examine how the South African labour movement is responding to these challenges in the new millennium. A variety of experts on South African labour, both within the country and outside deal with crucial issues: How has South Africa's labour movement reacted to the ANC Government's neoliberal economic agenda? How do the unions relate to an increasingly diversifying, “flexible” and vulnerable workforce? What are labour’s prospects of contributing to a left project in democratic South Africa? What are the challenges facing the unions in relation to new forms of militancy and social movements?

Three essays on trade and investment

From H. G. Johnson's work (Review of Economic Studies, 1953–54) on tariff retaliation, the questions of whether a country can win a “tariff war” and how or even the broader question of what will affect a country's strategic position in setting bilateral tariff have been tackled in various situations. Although it is widely accepted that a country will have strategic advantages in winning the tariff war if its relative monopoly power is sufficiently large, it is unclear what are the forces behind such power formation. The goal of this research is to provide a unified framework and discuss various forces such as relative country size, absolute advantages and relative advantages simultaneously. In a two-country continuum-of-commodity neoclassical trade model, it is shown that sufficiently large relative country size is a sufficient condition for a country to choose a non-cooperative tariff Nash equilibrium over free trade. It is also shown that technology disparities such as absolute advantage, rate of technology disparity and the distribution of the technology disparity all contribute to a country's strategic position and interact with country size. ^ Leverage effect is usually used to explain the phenomenon of asymmetric volatility in equity returns. However, leverage itself can only account for parts of the asymmetry. In this research, it is shown that stock return volatility is related to firms’ financial status. Financially constrained firms tend to be more sensitive to the return changes. Financial constraint factor explains why some firms tend to be more volatile than others. I found that the financial constraint factor explains the stock return volatility independent of other factors such as firm size, industry affiliation and leverage. Firms’ industry affiliations are shown to be very weak in differentiating volatility. Firm size is proven to be a good factor in distinguishing the different levels of volatility and volatility-return sensitivity. Leverage hypothesis is also partly corroborated and the situation where leverage effect is not applicable is discussed. Finally, I examined the macroeconomic policy's effects on overall market volatility. ^

Os rumos do fundo público no capitalismo contemporâneo: uma análise sobre o financiamento da Política de saúde no estado do Rio Grande do Norte

This work analizes the financing of Health Policies on the state of Rio Grande Do Norte, starting at the presumption that SUS is “Bombarded” by fiscal ajustments, as a neoliberal strategy to face capital crises.The trafectory of the financing of SUS demands the comprehension of two principles which are, in essence, contradictory: the “principle of universatility”, which is caracterized by the uncompromising defence of the fundaments of the Sanitary Reform, and the “principle of containment of social costs”, articulating the macroeconomic policy that has being developed in Brazil since the 1990s and which substantiantes itself on the 2000s.This last defends the reduction of the social costs, the maintanance of primary surplus and the privatization of public social services. Considering these determinations, the objective of this research constitues in bringing a critical reflection sorrounding the financing of the Health Policies on the state of Rio Grande do Norte, on the period from 2004 to 2012.Starting from a bibliografic and documentary research, it sought out to analyze the budget planning forseen on the Budget Guideline Law (LDO) and on the Multiannual Plans (PPA), investigating the reports of the Court of Auditors of the State of RN and gathering information about expenses with health, available on the System of Information About Public Budgeting in Health (SIOPS).The Analises of the data obtained, in light of the theoretic referece chosen, reveals trends in the public budget setting for health on the State of Rio Grande do Norte, which are: a tiny share of investment expenditure on health, when compared to other expenses, the amount used in daily fees and advertising; the high expense in personnel expenses, especially for hiring medical cooperatives;the strong dependence of the state on revenue transferences from the Union; the aplication of resources in actions of other nature considered as health, in exemple of the expenditures undertaken by the budgeting unit Supplying Center S/A (CEASA) on the function of health and subfunction of prophylactic and therapeutic and on the Popular Pharmacy program. Since 2006, expenses refering to Regime Security Servers (RPPA) on the area of health also have being considered as public actions and services in health for constitutional limit ends, beyond the inconsistencies on the PPAs with the actions performed efectively.

Contraprestaciones por los servicios financieros del Consulado de México y sus miembros: los fondos extraordinarios para la guerra contra Gran Bretaña, 1779-1783

Nueva España aportó la mayor parte de los recursos que sostuvieron a las fuerzas armadas españolas durante la guerra contra Gran Bretaña que se desarrolló en el Caribe entre 1779 y 1783. En el artículo se analizan las medidas a las que recurrieron las autoridades reales para obtener recursos extraordinarios del Consulado y varios mercaderes de la ciudad de México. Asimismo se exponen algunas de las contraprestaciones que negociaron a cambio de dichos servicios financieros y se plantean diversas hipótesis acerca de los motivos económicos, sociales y políticos que los llevaron a colaborar con el monarca, teniendo en cuenta los negocios que realizaban durante el conflicto bélico y la forma en que eran afectados por la reciente apertura comercial.

Defining efficient policies in a general equilibrium model: a multi-objective approach

Macroeconomic policy makers are typically concerned with several indicators of economic performance. We thus propose to tackle the design of macroeconomic policy using Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. More specifically, we employ Multiobjective Programming (MP) to seek so-called efficient policies. The MP approach is combined with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We chose use of a CGE model since they have the dual advantage of being consistent with standard economic theory while allowing one to measure the effect(s) of a specific policy with real data. Applying the proposed methodology to Spain (via the 1995 Social Accounting Matrix) we first quantified the trade-offs between two specific policy objectives: growth and inflation, when designing fiscal policy. We then constructed a frontier of efficient policies involving real growth and inflation. In doing so, we found that policy in 1995 Spain displayed some degree of inefficiency with respect to these two policy objectives. We then offer two sets of policy recommendations that, ostensibly, could have helped Spain at the time. The first deals with efficiency independent of the importance given to both growth and inflation by policy makers (we label this set: general policy recommendations). A second set depends on which policy objective is seen as more important by policy makers: increasing growth or controlling inflation (we label this one: objective-specific recommendations).

Macroeconomic impacts of politics and policy: Applications to financial and real markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for thepostwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointmentas Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differencesin the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest ratepolicy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much moresensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volckerperiod. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rulesfor the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simplemacroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.

Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation

We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation ofmacro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

The policy mix and macroeconomic adjustment in the Euro area. CEPS Commentary, 15 October 2012

Against the background of the IMF’s latest global economic forecast, Jørgen Mortensen and Cinzia Alcidi raise questions in a new CEPS Commentary about the timing of the implementation and the effects of the three main categories of economic policy – fiscal, monetary and structural.

Predicting the impact of the EU common agricultural policy reform in England: micro and macroeconomic aspects

In this article we investigate the effects of the European CAP reform on a selection of arable crops in England, both at a regional and national level. The results show that the CAP reform will push farmers to adjust to the new market conditions, which will cause a further restructuring of the English agricultural business sector. Our results show that, under the new market conditions, economically-small farms will increase their output by allocating more land to cereals, whereas economically-large farms will need to decrease land allocated to cereals to reduce production costs and achieve better returns.

Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy diagnosis and some policy proposals

The recent process of accelerated expansion of the Brazilian economy was driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990´s, we can still witness the existence of certain macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run such as, for instance, the exchange rate overvaluation in particular since 2005, and in general the modus operandi of monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the sustainability of the current pace of growth. Therefore, we argue that Brazil still lies in a trap made up of high interest and low exchange rates. The elimination of the exchange rate misalignment would bring about a great increase in the rate of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and hence upon the sustainability of long run economic growth. We outline a set of policy measures to eliminate such a trap, in particular, the adoption of an implicit target for the exchange rate, capital controls and the abandonment of the present regime of inflation targeting. Recent events seem to go in this direction.

Agricultural development and macroeconomic balance in Latin America: an overview of some basic policy issues

Includes bibliography