Prediction of MHC class II-binding peptides using an evolutionary algorithm and artificial neural network

Motivation: Prediction methods for identifying binding peptides could minimize the number of peptides required to be synthesized and assayed, and thereby facilitate the identification of potential T-cell epitopes. We developed a bioinformatic method for the prediction of peptide binding to MHC class II molecules. Results: Experimental binding data and expert knowledge of anchor positions and binding motifs were combined with an evolutionary algorithm (EA) and an artificial neural network (ANN): binding data extraction --> peptide alignment --> ANN training and classification. This method, termed PERUN, was implemented for the prediction of peptides that bind to HLA-DR4(B1*0401). The respective positive predictive values of PERUN predictions of high-, moderate-, low- and zero-affinity binder-a were assessed as 0.8, 0.7, 0.5 and 0.8 by cross-validation, and 1.0, 0.8, 0.3 and 0.7 by experimental binding. This illustrates the synergy between experimentation and computer modeling, and its application to the identification of potential immunotheraaeutic peptides.

Self-efficacy for refusal mediated by outcome expectancies in the prediction of alcohol-dependence amongst young adults

The present study examined the relative importance of outcome expectancies and self-efficacy [1] in the prediction of alcohol dependence [2] and alcohol consumption in a sample of young adult drinkers drawn from a milieu previously reported as supportive of risky drinking. In predicting alcohol dependence, outcome expectancies were found to mediate self-efficacy and the same pattern was found for both males and females. This suggests that male and female drinkers may become more similar as they progress along the drinking continuum from risky drinking to dependent drinking. However, in women, in comparison to men, a greater array of expectancies and self-efficacy scales were found to predict heavy drinking, as measured by quantity and frequency. These results suggest that heavy drinking women are particularly at risk of developing drinking related complications and that preventative education needs to take into account gender differences.

El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Effect of increased lung expansion on lung growth and development near midgestation in fetal sheep

Obstruction of the fetal trachea is a potent stimulus for fetal lung growth and may have therapeutic potential in human fetuses with lung hypoplasia. However, the effects of increased lung expansion on lung development near midgestation, which is the preferred timing for fetal intervention, have not been well studied. Our aim was to determine the effects of increased lung expansion on lung development at 75-90 d of gestation in fetal sheep. In three groups of fetuses (n = 4 for each), the trachea was occluded for either 10 [10-d tracheal occlusion (TO) group] or 15 d (15-d TO group) or left intact (control fetuses). TO for both 10 and 15 d caused fetal hydrops, resulting in significantly increased fetal body weights. Both periods of TO significantly increased total lung DNA contents from 99.8 +/- 10.1 to 246.0 +/- 5.3 and 246.9 +/- 48.7 mg in 10- and 15-d TO fetuses, respectively. TO for 10 and 15 d also increased airspace diameter, although the percentage of lung occupied by airspace was not increased in 10-d TO fetuses due to large increases in interairway distances; this resulted from a large increase in mesenchymal tissue. The interairway distances at 15 d of TO were reduced compared with the 10-d value but were still similar to 30% larger than control values. We conclude that TO at

Evaluation of a new bioelectrical impedance instrument for the prediction of body cell mass independently of height or weight

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the performance of a new bioelectrical impedance instrument, the Soft Tissue Analyzer (STA), which predicts a subject's body composition. A cross-sectional population study in which the impedance of 205 healthy adult subjects was measured using the STA. Extracellular water (ECW) volume (as a percentage of total body water, TBW) and fat-free mass (FFM) were predicted by both the STA and a compartmental model, and compared according to correlation and limits of agreement analysis, with the equivalent data obtained by independent reference methods of measurement (TBW measured by D2O dilution, and FFM measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry). There was a small (2.0 kg) but significant (P < 0.02) difference in mean FFM predicted by the STA, compared with the reference technique in the males, but not in the females (-0.4 kg) or in the combined group (0.8 kg). Both methods were highly correlated. Similarly, small but significant differences for predicted mean ECW volume were observed. The limits of agreement for FFM and ECW were -7.5-9.9 and -4.1-3.0 kg, respectively. Both FFM and ECW (as a percentage of TBW) are well predicted by the STA on a population basis, but the magnitude of the limits of agreement with reference methods may preclude its usefulness for predicting body composition in an individual. In addition, the theoretical basis of an impedance method that does not include a measure of conductor length requires further validation. (C) Elsevier Science Inc. 2000.

Prediction of rock alteration patterns: a potential tool in mineral exploration

Hydrothermal alteration of a quartz-K-feldspar rock is simulated numerically by coupling fluid flow and chemical reactions. Introduction of CO2 gas generates an acidic fluid and produces secondary quartz, muscovite and/or pyrophyllite at constant temperature and pressure of 300 degrees C and 200 MPa. The precipitation and/or dissolution of the secondary minerals is controlled by either mass-action relations or rate laws. In our simulations the mass of the primary elements are conserved and the mass-balance equations are solved sequentially using an implicit scheme in a finite-element code. The pore-fluid velocity is assumed to be constant. The change of rock volume due to the dissolution or precipitation of the minerals, which is directly related to their molar volume, is taken into account. Feedback into the rock porosity and the reaction rates is included in the model. The model produces zones of pyrophyllite quartz and muscovite due to the dissolution of K-feldspar. Our model simulates, in a simplified way, the acid-induced alteration assemblages observed in various guises in many significant mineral deposits. The particular aluminosilicate minerals produced in these experiments are associated with the gold deposits of the Witwatersrand Basin.

The role of cognitive vulnerability and stress in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology

Objectives. The present study was designed to test the diathesis-stress components of Beck's cognitive theory of depression and the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology. Design and methods. The research used a two-wave longitudinal design-data were collected from 65 primiparous women during their third trimester of pregnancy and then 6 weeks after the birth. Cognitive vulnerability and initial depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 1, whereas stress and postpartum depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 2. Results. There was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory, to the extent that the negative relationship between both general and maternal-specific dysfunctional attitudes associated with performance evaluation and Time 2 depressive symptomatology was strongest for women who reported high levels of parental stress. In a similar vein, the effects of dysfunctional attitudes (general and maternal-specific) associated with performance evaluation and need for approval (general measure only) on partner ratings of emotional distress were evident only among those women whose infants were rated as being temperamentally difficult. Conclusion. There was no support for the diathesis-stress component of the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression; however, there was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory.

Allele and genotype frequencies of polymorphic cytochromes P4502D6, 2C19 and 2E1 in Aborigines from Western Australia

The polymorphisms of the important xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes CYP2D6, CYP2C19 and CYP2E1 have been studied extensively in a large number of populations and show significant heterogeneity in the frequency of different alleles/genotypes and in the prevalence of the extensive and poor metabolizer phenotypes, Understanding of inter-ethnic differences in genotypes is important in prediction of either beneficial or adverse effects from therapeutic agents and other xenobiotics. Since no data were available for Australian Aborigines, we investigated the frequencies of alleles and genotypes for CYP2D6, CYP2C19 and CYP2E1 in a population living in the far north of Western Australia. Because of its geographical isolation, this population can serve as a model to study the impact of evolutionary forces on the distribution of different alleles for xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes. Twelve CYP2D6 alleles were analysed, The wild-type allele *1 was the most frequent (85.8%) and the non-functional alleles (*4, *5, *16) had an overall frequency of less than 10%. Only one subject (0.4%) was a poor metabolizer for CYP2D6 because of the genotype *5/*5, For CYP2C19, the frequencies of the *1 (wild-type) and the non-functional (*2 and *3) alleles were 50.2%, 35.5% and 14.3%, respectively. The combined CYP2C19 genotypes (*2/*2, *2/*3 or *3/*3) correspond to a predicted frequency of 25.6% for the CYP2C19 poor metabolizer phenotype, For CYP2E1, only one subject had the rare c2 allele giving an overall allele frequency of 0.2%. For CYP2D6 and CYP2C19, allele frequencies and predicted phenotypes differed significantly from those for Caucasians but were similar to those for Orientals indicating a close relationship to East Asian populations. Differences between Aborigines and Orientals in allele frequencies for CYP2D6*10 and CYP2E1 c2 may have arisen through natural selection, or genetic drift, respectively, Pharmacogenetics 11:69-76 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Passive smoking and lung cancer: a cumulative meta-analysis

Objective: To review the epidemiological evidence for the association between passive smoking and lung cancer. Method: Primary studies and meta-analyses examining the relationship between passive smoking and lung cancer were identified through a computerised literature search of Medline and Embase, secondary references, and experts in the field of passive smoking. Primary studies meeting the inclusion criteria were meta-analysed. Results From 1981 to the end of 1999 there have been 76 primary epidemiological studies of passive smoking and lung cancer, and 20 meta-analyses. There were 43 primary studies that met the inclusion criteria for this meta-analysis; more studies than previous assessments. The pooled relative risk (RR) for never-smoking women exposed to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) from spouses, compared with unexposed never-smoking women was 1.29 (95% CI 1.17-1.43). Sequential cumulative meta-analysed results for each year from 1981 were calculated: since 1992 the RR has been greater than 1.25. For Western industrialised countries the RR for never-smoking women exposed to ETS compared with unexposed never-smoking women, was 1.21 (95% CI 1.10-1.33). Previously published international spousal meta-analyses have all produced statistically significant RRs greater than 1.17. Conclusions The abundance of evidence in this paper, and the consistency of findings across domestic and workplace primary studies, dosimetric extrapolations and meta-analyses, clearly indicates that non-smokers exposed to ETS are at increased risk of lung cancer. Implications: The recommended public health policy is for a total ban on smoking in enclosed public places and work sites.

Prediction of promiscuous peptides that bind HLA class I molecules

Promiscuous T-cell epitopes make ideal targets for vaccine development. We report here a computational system, multipred, for the prediction of peptide binding to the HLA-A2 supertype. It combines a novel representation of peptide/MHC interactions with a hidden Markov model as the prediction algorithm. multipred is both sensitive and specific, and demonstrates high accuracy of peptide-binding predictions for HLA-A*0201, *0204, and *0205 alleles, good accuracy for *0206 allele, and marginal accuracy for *0203 allele. multipred replaces earlier requirements for individual prediction models for each HLA allelic variant and simplifies computational aspects of peptide-binding prediction. Preliminary testing indicates that multipred can predict peptide binding to HLA-A2 supertype molecules with high accuracy, including those allelic variants for which no experimental binding data are currently available.

Methods for prediction of peptide binding to MHC molecules: A comparative study

Background: A variety of methods for prediction of peptide binding to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have been proposed. These methods are based on binding motifs, binding matrices, hidden Markov models (HMM), or artificial neural networks (ANN). There has been little prior work on the comparative analysis of these methods. Materials and Methods: We performed a comparison of the performance of six methods applied to the prediction of two human MHC class I molecules, including binding matrices and motifs, ANNs, and HMMs. Results: The selection of the optimal prediction method depends on the amount of available data (the number of peptides of known binding affinity to the MHC molecule of interest), the biases in the data set and the intended purpose of the prediction (screening of a single protein versus mass screening). When little or no peptide data are available, binding motifs are the most useful alternative to random guessing or use of a complete overlapping set of peptides for selection of candidate binders. As the number of known peptide binders increases, binding matrices and HMM become more useful predictors. ANN and HMM are the predictive methods of choice for MHC alleles with more than 100 known binding peptides. Conclusion: The ability of bioinformatic methods to reliably predict MHC binding peptides, and thereby potential T-cell epitopes, has major implications for clinical immunology, particularly in the area of vaccine design.

Inter-subband redundancy prediction using neural network for video coding

High performance video codec is mandatory for multimedia applications such as video-on-demand and video conferencing. Recent research has proposed numerous video coding techniques to meet the requirement in bandwidth, delay, loss and Quality-of-Service (QoS). In this paper, we present our investigations on inter-subband self-similarity within the wavelet-decomposed video frames using neural networks, and study the performance of applying the spatial network model to all video frames over time. The goal of our proposed method is to restore the highest perceptual quality for video transmitted over a highly congested network. Our contributions in this paper are: (1) A new coding model with neural network based, inter-subband redundancy (ISR) prediction for video coding using wavelet (2) The performance of 1D and 2D ISR prediction, including multiple levels of wavelet decompositions. Our result shows a short-term quality enhancement may be obtained using both 1D and 2D ISR prediction.

Prediction of carbon monoxide in fires by conditional moment closure

Carbon monoxide is the chief killer in fires. Dangerous levels of CO can occur when reacting combustion gases are quenched by heat transfer, or by mixing of the fire plume in a cooled under- or overventilated upper layer. In this paper, carbon monoxide predictions for enclosure fires are modeled by the conditional moment closure (CMC) method and are compared with laboratory data. The modeled fire situation is a buoyant, turbulent, diffusion flame burning under a hood. The fire plume entrains fresh air, and the postflame gases are cooled considerably under the hood by conduction and radiation, emulating conditions which occur in enclosure fires and lead to the freezing of CO burnout. Predictions of CO in the cooled layer are presented in the context of a complete computational fluid dynamics solution of velocity, temperature, and major species concentrations. A range of underhood equivalence ratios, from rich to lean, are investigated. The CMC method predicts CO in very good agreement with data. In particular, CMC is able to correctly predict CO concentrations in lean cooled gases, showing its capability in conditions where reaction rates change considerably.