Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Sequential increase in Egr-1 and AP-1 DNA binding activity in the dentate gyrus following the induction of long-term potentiation

Establishment of long-term potentiation (LTP) at perforant path synapses is highly correlated with increased expression of Egr and AP-1 transcription factors in rat dentate gyrus granule cells. We have investigated whether increased transcription factor levels are reflected in increased transcription factor activity by assessing Egr and AP-I DNA binding activity using gel shift assays. LTP produced an increase in binding to the Egr element, which was NMDA receptor-dependent and correlated closely with our previously reported increase in Egr-1 (zif/268) protein levels. Supershift analysis confirmed involvement of Egr-1, but not Egr-2 in the DNA binding activity. AP-1 DNA binding was also rapidly elevated in parallel with protein levels, however, the peak increase in activity was delayed until 4 h, a time point when we have previously shown that only jun-D protein was elevated. These data indicate that binding of Egr-1 and AP-1 to their response elements is increased in two phases. This may result in activation of distinct banks of target genes which contribute to the establishment of persistent LTP. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-distance signalling and a mutational analysis of branching in pea

Four ramosus mutants with increased branching at basal and aerial nodes have been used to investigate the genetic regulation of bud outgrowth in Pisum sativum L. (garden pea). Studies of long-distance signalling, xylem sap cytokinin concentrations, shoot auxin level, auxin transport and auxin response are discussed. A model of branching control is presented that encompasses two graft-transmissible signals in addition to auxin and cytokinin. Mutants rms1 through rms4 are not deficient in indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) or in the basipetal transport of this hormone. Three of the four mutants, rms1, rms3 and rms4, have very reduced cytokinin concentrations in xylem sap from roots. This reduction in xylem sap cytokinin concentration appears to be caused by a property of the shoot and may be part of a feedback mechanism induced by an aspect of bud outgrowth. The shoot-to-root feedback signal is unlikely to be auxin itself, as auxin levels and transport are not correlated with xylem sap cytokinin concentrations in various intact and grafted mutant and wild-type plants. Rms1 and Rms2 act in shoot and rootstock to regulate the level or transport of graft-transmissible signals. Various grafting studies and double mutant analyses have associated Rms2 with the regulation of the shoot-to-root feedback signal. Rms1 is associated with a second unknown graft-transmissible signal that is postulated to move in the direction of root-to-shoot. Exogenous auxin appears to interact with both of the signals regulated by Rms1 and Rms2 in the inhibition of branching after decapitation. The action of Rms3 and Rms4 is less apparent at this stage, although both appear to act largely in the shoot.

Long-term disability after first-ever stroke and related prognostic factors in the Perth Community Stroke Study, 1989-1990

Background and Purpose-Few reliable estimates of the long-term functional outcome after stroke are available. This population-based study aimed to describe disability, dependency, and related independent prognostic factors at 5 years after,a first-ever stroke in patients in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-All individuals with a suspected acute stroke who were resident in a geographically defined region (population, 138 708) of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria over a period of 18 months in 1989 to 1990. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 and 12 months and 5 years after the index event. Results-There were 370 cases of first-ever stroke, and 277 patients survived to 30 days. Of these early survivors, 152 (55%) were alive at 5 years, and among those who were neither institutionalized (n=146) nor disabled (n=129) at the time of their stroke, 21 (14%) were institutionalized in a nursing home, and 47 (36%) were disabled. The most important predictors of death or disability at 5 years were increasing age, baseline disability defined by a Barthel Index score of <20/20 (odds ratio [OR], 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 14), moderate hemiparesis (OR, 2.7. 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.2), severe hemiparesis (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 19), and recurrent stroke (OR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.0 to 30). A low level of activity before the stroke was a significant predictor of institutionalization, and subsequent recurrent stroke was a consistent, independent predictor of institutionalization, disability, and death or institutionalization, increasing the odds of each of these 3 adverse outcomes by 5- to 15-fold. Conclusions-Among 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, about half survive 5 years; of survivors, one third remain disabled, and I in 7 are in permanent institutional care. The major modifiable predictors of poor long-term outcome are a low level of activity before the stroke and subsequent recurrent stroke. Efforts to increase physical activity among the elderly and to prevent recurrent stroke in survivors of a first stroke are likely to reduce the long-term burden of cerebrovascular disease.

Long-term quantification of the release of monomers from dental resin composites and a resin-modified glass ionomer cement

This study quantified the release of monomers from polymerized specimens of four commercially available resin composites and one glass ionomer cement immersed in water:ethanol solutions. Individual standard curves were prepared from five monomers: (1) triethylene glycol dimethacrylate (TEGDMA), (2) 2-hydroxy-ethyl methacrylate (HEMA), (3) urethane dimethacrylate (UDMA), (4) bisphenol A glycidyl dimethacrylate (BISGMA), and (5) bisphenol A. The concentration of the monomers was determined at Days 1, 7, 30, and 90 with the use of electrospray ionization/mass spectrometry. Data were expressed in mean mumol per mm(2) surface area of specimen and analyzed with Scheffe's test (P < 0.05). The following monomers were found in water: monomers (1) and (2) from Delton sealant, monomer (5) from ScotchBond Multipurpose Adhesive and Delton sealant, monomer (3) from Definite and monomer (4) from Fuji II LC, ScotchBond Multipurpose Adhesive, Synergy and Definite. All these monomers increased in concentration over time, with the exception of monomer (1) from Delton sealant. Monomers (3) and (5) were found in extracts of materials despite their absence from the manufacturer's published composition. All monomers were released in significantly higher concentrations in water:ethanol solutions than in water. The greatest release of monomers occurred in the first day. The effect of the measured concentrations of monomers (1-5) on human genes, cells, or tissues needs to be considered with the use of a biological model. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mortality and recurrent cardiac events after coronary artery bypass graft: long term outcomes in a population study

Objective: To determine 30 day mortality, long term survival, and recurrent cardiac events after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) in a population. Design: Follow up study of patients prospectively entered on to a cardiothoracic surgical database. Record linkages were used to obtain data on readmissions and deaths. Patients: 8910 patients undergoing isolated first CABG between 1980 and 1993 in Western Australia. Main outcome measures: 30 day and long term survival, readmission for cardiac event (acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or reoperative CABG). Results: There were 3072 deaths to mid 1999. 30 day and long term survival were significantly better in patients treated in the first five years than during the following decade. The age of the patients, proportion of female patients, and number of grafts increased over time. An urgent procedure (odds ratio 3.3), older age (9% per year) and female sex (odds ratio 1.5) were associated with increased risk for 30 day mortality, while age (7% per year) and a recent myocardial infarction (odds ratio 1.16) influenced long term survival. Internal mammary artery grafts were followed by better short and long term survival, though there was an obvious selection bias in favour of younger male patients. Conclusions: This study shows worsening crude mortality at 30 days after CABG from the mid 1980s, associated with the inclusion of higher risk patients. Older age, an acute myocardial infarction in the year before surgery, and the use of sephenous vein grafts only were associated with poorer long term survival and greater risk of a recurrent cardiac event. Female sex predicted recurrent events but not long term survival.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Causes and consequences of long-term climatic variability on the Australian continent

1. Ice-volume forced glacial-interglacial cyclicity is the major cause of global climate variation within the late Quaternary period. Within the Australian region, this variation is expressed predominantly as oscillations in moisture availability. Glacial periods were substantially drier than today with restricted distribution of mesic plant communities, shallow or ephemeral water bodies and extensive aeolian dune activity. 2. Superimposed on this cyclicity in Australia is a trend towards drier and/or more variable climates within the last 350 000 years. This trend may have been initiated by changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation resulting from Australia's continued movement into the Southeast Asian region and involving the onset or intensification of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation system and a reduction in summer monsoon activity. 3. Increased biomass burning, stemming originally from increased climatic variability and later enhanced by activities of indigenous people, resulted in a more open and sclerophyllous vegetation, increased salinity and a further reduction in water availability. 4. Past records combined with recent observations suggest that the degree of environmental variability will increase and the drying trend will be enhanced in the foreseeable future, regardless of the extent or nature of human intervention.

Global trajectories of the long-term decline of coral reef ecosystems

Degradation of coral reef ecosystems began centuries ago, but there is no global summary of the magnitude of change. We compiled records, extending back thousands of years, of the status and trends of seven major guilds of carnivores, herbivores, and architectural species from 14 regions. Large animals declined before small animals and architectural species, and Atlantic reefs declined before reefs in the Red Sea and Australia, but the trajectories of decline were markedly similar worldwide. All reefs were substantially degraded long before outbreaks of coral disease and bleaching. Regardless of these new threats, reefs will not survive without immediate protection from human exploitation over large spatial scales.

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.

Preventing recurrent events long term after coronary artery bypass graft: Suboptimal use of medications in a population study

Background There are few population-based data on long-term management of patients after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), despite the high risk for future major vascular events among this group. We assessed the prevalence and correlates of pharmacotherapy for prevention of new cardiac events in a large population-based series. Methods A postal survey was conducted of 2500 randomly selected survivors from a state population of patients 6 to 20 years after first CABG. Results Response was 82% (n = 2061). Use of antiplatelet agents (80%) and statins (64%) declined as age increased. Other independent predictors of antiplatelet use included statin use (odds ratio [OR] 1.6, 95% CI 1.26-2.05) and recurrent angina (OR 1.6, CI 1.17-2.06). Current smokers were less likely to use aspirin (OR 0.59, CI 0.4-0.89). Statin use was associated with reported high cholesterol (OR 24.4, CI 8.4-32.4), management by a cardiologist (OR 2.3, CI 1.8-3.0), and the use of calcium channel-blockers. Patients reporting hypertension or heart failure, in addition to high cholesterol, were less likely to use statins. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were the most commonly prescribed agents for management of hypertension (59%) and were more frequently used among patients with diabetes and those with symptoms of heart failure. Overall 42% of patients were on angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and 36% on beta-blockers. Conclusions Gaps exist in the use of-recommended medications after CABG. Lower anti-platelet and statin use was associated with older age, freedom from angina, comorbid heart failure or hypertension, and not regularly visiting a cardiologist. Patients who continue to smoke might be less likely to adhere to prescribed medications.

Sequence analysis, chromosomal distribution and long-range organization show that rapid turnover of new and old pBuM satellite DNA repeats leads to different patterns of variation in seven species of the Drosophila buzzatii cluster

We aimed to study patterns of variation and factors influencing the evolutionary dynamics of a satellite DNA, pBuM, in all seven Drosophila species from the buzzatii cluster (repleta group). We analyzed 117 alpha pBuM-1 (monomer length 190 bp) and 119 composite alpha/beta (370 bp) pBuM-2 repeats and determined the chromosome location and long-range organization on DNA fibers of major sequence variants. Such combined methodologies in the study of satDNAs have been used in very few organisms. In most species, concerted evolution is linked to high copy number of pBuM repeats. Species presenting low-abundance and scattered distributed pBuM repeats did not undergo concerted evolution and maintained part of the ancestral inter-repeat variability. The alpha and alpha/beta repeats colocalized in heterochromatic regions and were distributed on multiple chromosomes, with notable differences between species. High-resolution FISH revealed array sizes of a few kilobases to over 0.7 Mb and mutual arrangements of alpha and alpha/beta repeats along the same DNA fibers, but with considerable changes in the amount of each variant across species. From sequence, chromosomal and phylogenetic data, we could infer that homogenization and amplification events involved both new and ancestral pBuM variants. Altogether, the data on the structure and organization of the pBuM satDNA give insights into genome evolution including mechanisms that contribute to concerted evolution and diversification.