Influence of patient age and implantation technique on the probability of re-replacement of the homograft aortic valve

Background and aim of the study: Results of valve re-replacement (reoperation) in 898 patients undergoing aortic valve replacement with cryopreserved homograft valves between 1975 and 1998 are reported. The study aim was to provide estimates of unconditional probability of valve reoperation and cumulative incidence function (actual risk) of reoperation. Methods: Valves were implanted by subcoronary insertion (n = 500), inclusion cylinder (n = 46), and aortic root replacement (n = 352). Probability of reoperation was estimated by adopting a mixture model framework within which estimates were adjusted for two risk factors: patient age at initial replacement, and implantation technique. Results: For a patient aged 50 years, the probability of reoperation in his/her lifetime was estimated as 44% and 56% for non-root and root replacement techniques, respectively. For a patient aged 70 years, estimated probability of reoperation was 16% and 25%, respectively. Given that a reoperation is required, patients with non-root replacement have a higher hazard rate than those with root replacement (hazards ratio = 1.4), indicating that non-root replacement patients tend to undergo reoperation earlier before death than root replacement patients. Conclusion: Younger patient age and root versus non-root replacement are risk factors for reoperation. Valve durability is much less in younger patients, while root replacement patients appear more likely to live longer and hence are more likely to require reoperation.

The prevalence of erectile dysfunction among Brazilian men screened for prostate cancer

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of erectile dysfunction (ED) in a large cohort of Brazilian men who were screened for prostate cancer, and to determine risk factors in this population, as there are large cultural differences among countries in reporting the frequency of ED, and it is likely that the prevalence of ED among men screened for prostate cancer cannot be generally applied across countries. SUBJECTS AND METHODS The analysis focused on the baseline characteristics of 1008 consecutive South American men from Brazil with no known prostate disease who had routine screening for prostate cancer by urologists. The variables analysed were patient age, urinary symptoms, patient health-related quality of life (HRQL), prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, prostate volume and erectile function. To assess lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and HRQL, we used the American Urological Association symptom score and its appended eighth question, respectively. Benign prostatic hyperplasia was defined as a prostate volume of > 30 g. Sexual function was assessed using the five-item version of the International Index of Erectile Function questionnaire. Thus, ED was considered to absent for scores of 22-25, mild for 17-21, mild to moderate for 12-16, moderate for 8-11, or severe for 5-7. Obesity was defined by calculating the body mass index (BMI), and categorized as underweight (< 18.5 kg/mlogistic regression models. RESULTS Information about erectile function was available for 908 patients. ED was considered to be absent, mild, mild to moderate, moderate and severe in 169 (18.6%), 210 (23.1%), 169 (18.6%), 138 (15.2%) and 222 (24.5%) patients, respectively. The ED was severe in 18.4%, 25.7% and 43.4% of patients with mild, moderate and severe LUTS, respectively (P < 0.001). The answer to the HRQL question was also significantly associated with ED; ED was severe in 16.5% of patients feeling delighted/pleased and in 35.8% of patients feeling unhappy/terrible (P < 0.001). The prostate volume was significantly related to ED. The BMI category showed that normal weight, overweight and obese patients had similar rates of ED (P = 0.415); ED was severe in about a quarter of the patients in each of these categories, and 50% and 24% of patients in the underweight and greater BMI groups had severe ED, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Of men screened for prostate cancer in Brazil, approximate to 40% have moderate or severe ED. Severe LUTS, higher HRQL scores, a large prostate volume, a low BMI and higher PSA levels might be associated with higher rates of ED. These variables should be considered when analysing the erectile function of patients screened for prostate cancer.

Breastfeeding, menopause, and epithelial ovarian cancer

No previous study has examined the modifying effect of menopausal status on the association between lactation and ovarian cancer risk. We recruited 824 epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 855 community controls in three Australian states, collecting reproductive and lactation histories by means of a contraceptive calendar and pregnancy and breastfeeding record. We report results in women with at least one liveborn infant for unsupplemented breastfeeding, in line with a biological model linking suppression of ovulation to reduction in ovarian cancer risk. We derived odds ratios from multiple logistic regression models including number of liveborn children, age, age at first or last birth, and other potential confounders, overall and by menopausal status. Estimates of relative risk of ovarian cancer per month of full lactation were 0.99 [95% confidence interval(CI) = 0.97-1.00] overall and 1.00 (95% CI = 0.99-1.01) and 0.98 (95% CI = 0.95-1.01) among post- and premenopausal women, respectively. We tailored a lactation variable to the incessant ovulation hypothesis by progressively discounting breastfeeding the longer after birth it occurred, finding odds ratios similar to those for the unmodified duration variable. We found no association of note among postmenopausal women. Breastfeeding seems to be somewhat protective against ovarian cancer, but only before menopause.

Cessation of alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and the reversal of head and neck cancer risk

Background Quitting tobacco or alcohol use has been reported to reduce the head and neck cancer risk in previous studies. However, it is unclear how many years must pass following cessation of these habits before the risk is reduced, and whether the risk ultimately declines to the level of never smokers or never drinkers. Methods We pooled individual-level data from case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium. Data were available from 13 studies on drinking cessation (9167 cases and 12 593 controls), and from 17 studies on smoking cessation (12 040 cases and 16 884 controls). We estimated the effect of quitting smoking and drinking on the risk of head and neck cancer and its subsites, by calculating odds ratios (ORs) using logistic regression models. Results Quitting tobacco smoking for 1-4 years resulted in a head and neck cancer risk reduction [OR 0.70, confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.81 compared with current smoking], with the risk reduction due to smoking cessation after >= 20 years (OR 0.23, CI 0.18-0.31), reaching the level of never smokers. For alcohol use, a beneficial effect on the risk of head and neck cancer was only observed after >= 20 years of quitting (OR 0.60, CI 0.40-0.89 compared with current drinking), reaching the level of never drinkers. Conclusions Our results support that cessation of tobacco smoking and cessation of alcohol drinking protect against the development of head and neck cancer.

Individual risk prediction of nodal and distant metastasis for patients with typical bronchial carcinoid tumors

Objective: Bronchial typical carcinoid tumors are tow-grade malignancies. However, metastases are diagnosed in some patients. Predicting the individual risk of these metastases to determine patients eligible for a radical lymphadenectomy and patients to be followed-up because of distant metastasis risk is relevant. Our objective was to screen for predictive criteria of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor aggressiveness based on a logistic regression model using clinical, pathological and biomolecular data. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study, including 330 consecutive patients operated on for bronchial typical carcinoid tumors and followed-up during a period more than 10 years in two university hospitals was performed. Selected data to predict the individual risk for both nodal and distant metastasis were: age, gender, TNM staging, tumor diameter and location (central/peripheral), tumor immunostaining index of p53 and Ki67, Bcl2 and the extracellular density of neoformed microvessels and of collagen/elastic extracellular fibers. Results: Nodal and distant metastasis incidence was 11% and 5%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified all the studied biomarkers as related to nodal metastasis. Multivariate analysis identified a predictive variable for nodal metastasis: neo angiogenesis, quantified by the neoformed pathological microvessels density. Distant metastasis was related to mate gender. Discussion: Predictive models based on clinical and biomolecular data could be used to predict individual risk for metastasis. Patients under a high individual risk for lymph node metastasis should be considered as candidates to mediastinal lymphadenectomy. Those under a high risk of distant metastasis should be followed-up as having an aggressive disease. Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor metastasis for patients operated on can be calculated in function of biomolecular data. Prediction models can detect high-risk patients and help surgeons to identify patients requiring radical lymphadenectomy and help oncologists to identify those as having an aggressive disease requiring prolonged follow-up. (C) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of Disease Severity and Optic Disc Size on Diagnostic Accuracy of RTVue Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomograph in Glaucoma

PURPOSE. To evaluate the effect of disease severity and optic disc size on the diagnostic accuracies of optic nerve head (ONH), retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL), and macular parameters with RTVue (Optovue, Fremont, CA) spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SDOCT) in glaucoma. METHODS. 110 eyes of 62 normal subjects and 193 eyes of 136 glaucoma patients from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study underwent ONH, RNFL, and macular imaging with RTVue. Severity of glaucoma was based on visual field index (VFI) values from standard automated perimetry. Optic disc size was based on disc area measurement using the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph II (Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany). Influence of disease severity and disc size on the diagnostic accuracy of RTVue was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and logistic regression models. RESULTS. Areas under ROC curve (AUC) of all scanning areas increased (P < 0.05) as disease severity increased. For a VFI value of 99%, indicating early damage, AUCs for rim area, average RNLI thickness, and ganglion cell complex-root mean square were 0.693, 0.799, and 0.779, respectively. For a VFI of 70%, indicating severe damage, corresponding AUCs were 0.828, 0.985, and 0.992, respectively. Optic disc size did not influence the AUCs of any of the SDOCT scanning protocols of RTVue (P > 0.05). Sensitivity of the rim area increased and specificity decreased in large optic discs. CONCLUSIONS. Diagnostic accuracies of RTVue scanning protocols for glaucoma were significantly influenced by disease severity. Sensitivity of the rim area increased in large optic discs at the expense of specificity. (Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2011;92:1290-1296) DOI:10.1167/iovs.10-5516

Obstetric Outcome in Pregnant Women on Long-term Dialysis: A Case Series

Background: Although still uncommon, pregnancy frequency in women on maintenance hemodialysis therapy has increased in the past 20 years. Most published reports suggest that intensified hemodialysis regimens result in better pregnancy outcomes. The small number of patients investigated in all reported series is the main limitation of the available studies. Study Design: Retrospective case series. Setting & Participants: Data for all pregnancies that occurred in 1988-2008 in women undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (52 pregnancies) at the Sao Paulo University Medical School (Sao Paulo, Brazil). Outcomes & Measurements: We analyzed maternal and fetal outcomes of 52 pregnancies, as well as their relationship with various clinical, laboratory, and hemodialysis parameters, such as pre-eclampsia, pregnancy before or after dialysis therapy, hemodialysis dose, polyhydramnios, anemia, and predialysis serum urea level. In addition, logistic regression models for a composite adverse fetal outcome (perinatal death or extremely premature delivery) and linear regression models for birth weight were built. Results: 87% overall rate of successful delivery, with a mean gestational age of 32.7 +/- 3.1 weeks. Pre-eclampsia was associated with a poor prognosis compared with pregnancies without pre-eclampsia: a successful delivery rate of 60% versus 92.9% (P = 0.02), extremely premature delivery rate of 77.8% versus 3.3% (P = 0.001), lower gestational age (P = 0.001), and birth weight (P = 0.001). Patients with an adverse composite fetal outcome had a higher frequency of pre-eclampsia (P = 0.001), lower frequency of polyhydramnios (P = 0.03), lower third-trimester hematocrit (P = 0.03), and higher predialysis serum urea level (P = 0.03). The same results were seen for birth weight. Limitations: Retrospective data analysis. The absence of creatinine clearance measurements did not allow evaluation of the impact of residual renal function on fetal outcome. Conclusions: Outcomes of pregnancy in women undergoing hemodialysis often are good. Preeclampsia, third-trimester hematocrit, polyhydramnios, and predialysis serum urea level are important variables associated with fetal outcome and birth weight. Am J Kidney Dis 56:77-85. (C) 2010 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.Inc

Predictive Factors for Positive Surgical Margins and Their Locations After Robot-Assisted Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy

Background: Positive surgical margin (PSM) after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been shown to be an independent predictive factor for cancer recurrence. Several investigations have correlated clinical and histopathologic findings with surgical margin status after open RP. However, few studies have addressed the predictive factors for PSM after robot-assisted laparoscopic RP (RARP). Objective: We sought to identify predictive factors for PSMs and their locations after RARP. Design, setting, and participants: We prospectively analyzed 876 consecutive patients who underwent RARP from January 2008 to May 2009. Intervention: All patients underwent RARP performed by a single surgeon with previous experience of > 1500 cases. Measurements: Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify potential predictive factors for PSM. Three logistic regression models were built: (1) one using preoperative variables only, (2) another using all variables (preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative) combined, and (3) one created to identify potential predictive factors for PSM location. Preoperative variables entered into the models included age, body mass index (BMI), prostate-specific antigen, clinical stage, number of positive cores, percentage of positive cores, and American Urological Association symptom score. Intra-and postoperative variables analyzed were type of nerve sparing, presence of median lobe, percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen, gland size, histopathologic findings, pathologic stage, and pathologic Gleason grade. Results and limitations: In the multivariable analysis including preoperative variables, clinical stage was the only independent predictive factor for PSM, with a higher PSM rate for T3 versus T1c (odds ratio [OR]: 10.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-43.8) and for T2 versus T1c (OR: 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.6). Considering pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables combined, percentage of tumor, pathologic stage, and pathologic Gleason score were associated with increased risk of PSM in the univariable analysis (p < 0.001 for all variables). However, in the multivariable analysis, pathologic stage (pT2 vs pT1; OR: 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.6) and percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen (OR: 8.7; 95% CI, 2.2-34.5; p = 0.0022) were the only independent predictive factors for PSM. Finally, BMI was shown to be an independent predictive factor(OR: 1.1; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3; p = 0.0119) for apical PSMs, with increasing BMI predicting higher incidence of apex location. Because most of our patients were referred from other centers, the biopsy technique and the number of cores were not standardized in our series. Conclusions: Clinical stage was the only preoperative variable independently associated with PSM after RARP. Pathologic stage and percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen were identified as independent predictive factors for PSMs when analyzing pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables combined. BMI was shown to be an independent predictive factor for apical PSMs. (C) 2010 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Violence against women is strongly associated with suicide attempts: Evidence from the WHO multi-country study on women`s health and domestic violence against women

Suicidal behaviours are one of the most important contributors to the global burden of disease among women, but little is known about prevalence and modifiable risk factors in low and middle income countries. We use data from the WHO multi-country study on women`s health and domestic violence against women to examine the prevalence of suicidal thoughts and attempts, and relationships between suicide attempts and mental health status, child sexual abuse, partner violence and other variables. Population representative cross-sectional household surveys were conducted from 2000-2003 in 13 provincial (more rural) and city (urban) sites in Brazil, Ethiopia, japan, Namibia, Peru, Samoa, Serbia, Thailand and Tanzania. 20967 women aged 15-49 years participated. Prevalence of lifetime suicide attempts, lifetime suicidal thoughts, and suicidal thoughts in the past four weeks were calculated, and multivariate logistic regression models were fit to examine factors associated with suicide attempts in each site. Prevalence of lifetime suicide attempts ranged from 0.8% (Tanzania) to 12.0% (Peru city): lifetime thoughts of suicide from 7.2% (Tanzania province) to 29.0% (Peru province), and thoughts in the past four weeks from 1.9% (Serbia) to 13.6% (Peru province). 25-50% of women with suicidal thoughts in the past four weeks had also visited a health worker in that time. The most consistent risk factors for suicide attempts after adjusting for probable common mental health disorders were: intimate partner violence, non-partner physical violence, ever being divorced, separated or widowed, childhood sexual abuse and having a mother who had experienced intimate partner violence. Mental health policies and services must recognise the consistent relationship between violence and suicidality in women in low and middle income countries. Training health sector workers to recognize and respond to the consequences of violence may substantially reduce the health burden associated with suicidal behaviour. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between degenerative aortic valve disease and long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors: results of the longitudinal population-based KORA/MONICA survey

Degenerative aortic valve disease (DAVD), a common finding in the elderly, is associated with an increased risk of death due to cardiovascular causes. Taking advantage of its longitudinal design, this study evaluates the prevalence of DAVD and its temporal associations with long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors in the general population. We studied 953 subjects (aged 25-74 years) from a random sample of German residents. Risk factors had been determined at a baseline investigation in 1994/95. At a follow-up investigation, 10 years later, standardized echocardiography determined aortic valve morphology and aortic valve area (AVA) as well as left ventricular geometry and function. At the follow-up study, the overall prevalence of DAVD was 28%. In logistic regression models adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors at baseline age (OR 2.0 [1.7-2.3] per 10 years, P < 0.001), active smoking (OR 1.7 [1.1-2.4], P = 0.009) and elevated total cholesterol levels (OR 1.2 [1.1-1.3] per increase of 20 mg/dL, P < 0.001) were significantly related to DAVD at follow-up. Furthermore, age, baseline status of smoking, and total cholesterol level were significant predictors of a smaller AVA at follow-up study. In contrast, hypertension and obesity had no detectable relationship with long-term changes of aortic valve structure. In the general population we observed a high prevalence of DAVD that is associated with long-term exposure to elevated cholesterol levels and active smoking. These findings strengthen the notion that smoking cessation and cholesterol lowering are promising treatment targets for prevention of DAVD.

Benefit of antiretroviral therapy on survival of human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients admitted to an intensive care unit

Objective: To evaluate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and the prognostic factors for in-intensive care unit (ICU) and 6-month mortality in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. Design: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in patients admitted to the ICU from 1996 through 2006. The follow-up period extended for 6 months after ICU admission. Setting: The ICU of a tertiary-care teaching hospital at the Universidade de Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants: A total of 278 HIV-infected patients admitted to the ICU were selected. We excluded ICU readmissions (37), ICU admissions who stayed less than 24 hours (44), and patients with unavailable medical charts (36). Outcome Measure: In-ICU and 6-month mortality. Main Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards models demonstrated that the variables associated with in-ICU and 6-month mortality were sepsis as the cause of admission (odds ratio [OR] = 3.16 [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.65-6.06]); hazards ratio [HR] = 1.37 [95% Cl 1.01-1.88)), an Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation 11 score >19 [OR = 2.81 (95% CI 1.57-5.04); HR = 2.18 (95% CI 1.62-2.94)], mechanical ventilation during the first 24 hours [OR = 3.92 (95% CI 2.20-6.96); HR = 2.25 (95% CI 1.65-3.07)], and year of ICU admission [OR = 0.90 (95% CI 0.81-0.99); HR = 0.92 [95% CI 0.87-0.97)]. CD4 T-cell count <50 cells/mm(3) Was only associated with ICU mortality [OR = 2.10 (95% Cl 1.17-3.76)]. The use of ART in the ICU was negatively predictive of 6-month mortality in the Cox model [HR = 0.50 (95% CI 0.35-0.71)], especially if this therapy was introduced during the first 4 days of admission to the ICU [HR = 0.58 (95% CI 0.41-0.83)]. Regarding HIV-infected patients admitted to ICU without using ART, those who have started this treatment during ICU, stay presented a better prognosis when time and potential confounding factors were adjusted for [HR 0.55 (95% CI 0.31-0.98)]. Conclusions: The ICU outcome of HIV-infected patients seems to be dependent not only on acute illness severity, but also on the administration of antiretroviral treatment. (Crit Care Med 2009; 37: 1605-1611)

Risk factors across the life course and dementia in a Brazilian population: results from the Sao Paulo Ageing & Health Study (SPAH)

Background Several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the association between adversities across life and dementia. This study aimed to investigate the association between indicators of socioeconomic disadvantages throughout the life-course and dementia among older adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil and to explore possible causal pathways. Methods We used baseline data from the SPAH study which involved participants aged 65 years and older (n = 2005). The outcome of interest was prevalent dementia. Exposures included in the analyses were socioeconomic position (SEP) indicators in childhood (place of birth and literacy) and adulthood (occupation and income), anthropometric measurements as markers of intrauterine and childhood environment (head circumference and leg length), smoking, diabetes and hypertension. Logistic regression models were used to test the hypothesized pathways and to assess whether there was an association between cumulative adversities across the life course and prevalent dementia. Results Indicators of socioeconomic disadvantage in early life were associated with increased prevalence of dementia. This association was partially mediated through adulthood SEP. Head circumference and leg length were also clearly associated with dementia but there was no evidence that this association was mediated by early life socioeconomic disadvantage. There was an association between cumulative unfavourable conditions across the life course and dementia. Conclusions Early life disadvantages seem to operate through biological mechanisms associated with passive brain reserve and opportunities in life representing active cognitive reserve. Prevention of dementia should start early in life and continue through life span as seen with many other chronic diseases.

The role of BPH, lower urinary tract symptoms, and PSA levels on erectile function of Brazilian men who undergo prostate cancer screening

Introduction. Lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and erectile dysfunction (ED) are common problems in middle-aged and older men. Recently, epidemiologic studies have shown significant associations between severity of LUTS and male sexual dysfunction. Aim. We analyzed the role of prostate enlargement, LUTS, and prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels in the erectile function of Brazilian men who underwent prostate cancer (PCa) screening. Method. We analyzed data from 1,008 consecutive patients enrolled in a PCa screening program. Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) was defined as a prostate weight greater than 30 g as defined by digital rectal examination. For statistical analysis, we used the chi-squared and analysis of variance tests. The odds ratios (OR) for correlation of ED with prostate volume LUTS and PSA were estimated using logistic regression models. Main Outcome Measure. The American Urological Association (AUA) symptom score for LUTS and the International Index of Erectile Function. Results. Mean patient age was 61.2 years (45-87) and median PSA value was 1.9 ng/mL. BPH was identified in 48.5% of patients. Mild, moderate, and severe LUTS were found in 52.3%, 30.9%, and 16.8% of cases, respectively. ED was classified as absent, mild, mild to moderate, moderate, and severe in 18.6%, 23.1%, 18.6%, 15.2%, and 24.5%, respectively. While only 5.4% of the patients with no ED presented severe LUTS, this finding was observed in 27.1% of patients with severe ED (P<0.001). Univariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that age, prostate volume, AUA symptom score, and PSA levels were significant predictors of ED. However, when controlled for patient age, only LUTS remained as an independent predictor of ED. Conclusions. Controlling for patient age, LUTS are independent risk factors for the development of ED among Brazilian men who undergo PCa screening.

A decision support system to facilitate management of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk stratification in neonates and infants submitted to cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass: A multimarker approach combining inflammatory mediators, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and troponin I

Low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) is a common problem following cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) in neonates and infants, and its early recognition remains a challenging task. We aimed to test whether a multimarker approach combining inflammatory and cardiac markers provides complementary information for prediction of LCOS and death in children submitted to cardiac surgery with CPB. Forty-six children younger than 18 months with congenital heart defects were prospectively enrolled. No intervention was made. Blood samples were collected pre-operatively, during CPB and post-operatively (PO) for measurement of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Clinical data and outcome variables were recorded. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of LCOS and death. Multivariate logistic regression identified pre-operative NT-proBNP and IL-8 4 h PO as independent predictors of LCOS, while cTnI 4 h PO and CPB length were independent predictors of death. The use of inflammatory and cardiac markers in combination improved sensitivity, negative predictive value and accuracy of the models. In conclusion, the combined assessment of inflammatory and cardiac biochemical markers can be useful for identifying young children at increased risk for LCOS and death after heart surgery with CPB. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.