Toxics Release Inventory facilities and childhood cancer: Geographic information systems based approach

Purpose. To examine the association between living in proximity to Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities and the incidence of childhood cancer in the State of Texas. ^ Design. This is a secondary data analysis utilizing the publicly available Toxics release inventory (TRI), maintained by the U.S. Environmental protection agency that lists the facilities that release any of the 650 TRI chemicals. Total childhood cancer cases and childhood cancer rate (age 0-14 years) by county, for the years 1995-2003 were used from the Texas cancer registry, available at the Texas department of State Health Services website. Setting: This study was limited to the children population of the State of Texas. ^ Method. Analysis was done using Stata version 9 and SPSS version 15.0. Satscan was used for geographical spatial clustering of childhood cancer cases based on county centroids using the Poisson clustering algorithm which adjusts for population density. Pictorial maps were created using MapInfo professional version 8.0. ^ Results. One hundred and twenty five counties had no TRI facilities in their region, while 129 facilities had at least one TRI facility. An increasing trend for number of facilities and total disposal was observed except for the highest category based on cancer rate quartiles. Linear regression analysis using log transformation for number of facilities and total disposal in predicting cancer rates was computed, however both these variables were not found to be significant predictors. Seven significant geographical spatial clusters of counties for high childhood cancer rates (p<0.05) were indicated. Binomial logistic regression by categorizing the cancer rate in to two groups (<=150 and >150) indicated an odds ratio of 1.58 (CI 1.127, 2.222) for the natural log of number of facilities. ^ Conclusion. We have used a unique methodology by combining GIS and spatial clustering techniques with existing statistical approaches in examining the association between living in proximity to TRI facilities and the incidence of childhood cancer in the State of Texas. Although a concrete association was not indicated, further studies are required examining specific TRI chemicals. Use of this information can enable the researchers and public to identify potential concerns, gain a better understanding of potential risks, and work with industry and government to reduce toxic chemical use, disposal or other releases and the risks associated with them. TRI data, in conjunction with other information, can be used as a starting point in evaluating exposures and risks. ^

Comparison of compliance and immune response of drug users on the standard and accelerated hepatitis B vaccine schedules - Houston, Texas

Despite the availability of hepatitis B vaccine for over two decades, drug users and other high-risk adult populations have experienced low vaccine coverage. Poor compliance has limited efforts to reduce transmission of hepatitis B infection in this population. Evidence suggests that immunological response in drug users is impaired compared to the general population, both in terms of lower seroprotection rates and antibodies levels.^ The current study investigated the effectiveness of the multi-dose hepatitis B vaccine and compared the effect of the standard and accelerated vaccine schedules in a not-in-treatment, drug-using adult population in the city of Houston, USA.^ A population of drug-users from two communities in Houston, susceptible to hepatitis B, was sampled by outreach workers and referral methodology. Subjects were randomized either to the standard hepatitis vaccine schedule (0, 1-, 6-month) or to an accelerated schedule (0, 1-, 2-month). Antibody levels were detected through laboratory analyses at various time-points. The participants were followed for two years and seroconversion rates were calculated to determine immune response.^ A four percent difference in the overall compliance rate was observed between the standard (73%) and accelerated schedules (77%). Logistic regression analyses showed that drug users living on the streets were twice as likely to not complete all three vaccine doses (p=0.028), and current speedball use was also associated with non-completion (p=0.002). Completion of all three vaccinations in the multivariate analysis was also correlated with older age. Drug users on the accelerated schedule were 26% more likely to achieve completion, although this factor was marginally significant (p=0.085).^ Cumulative adequate protective response was gained by 65% of the HBV susceptible subgroup by 12-months and was identical for both the standard and accelerated schedules. Excess protective response (>=100 mIU/mL) occurred with greater frequency at the later period for the standard schedule (36% at 12-months compared to 14% at six months), while the greater proportion of excess protective response for the accelerated schedule occurred earlier (34% at 6 months compared to 18% at 12-months). Seroconversion at the adequate protective response level of 10 mIU/mL was reached by the accelerated schedule group at a quicker rate (62% vs. 49%), and with a higher mean titer (104.8 vs. 64.3 mIU/mL), when measured at six months. Multivariate analyses indicated a 63% increased risk of non-response for older age and confirmed the existence of an accelerating decline in immune response to vaccination manifesting after 40 years (p=0.001). Injecting more than daily was also highly associated with the risk of non-response (p=0.016).^ The substantial increase in the seroprotection rate at six months may be worth the trade-off against the faster antibody titer decrease and is recommended for enhancing compliance and seroconversion. Utilization of the accelerated schedule with the primary objective of increasing compliance and seroconversion rates during the six months after the first dose may confer early protective immunity and reduce the HBV vulnerability of drug users who continue, or have recently initiated, increased high risk drug use and sexual behaviors.^

A GENETIC MARKER STUDY OF NON - INSULIN DEPENDENT DIABETICS IN THE MEXICAN-AMERICAN COMMUNITY FROM STARR COUNTY, TEXAS (PLASMA GLUCOSE, HEMOGLOBIN ANALYSIS)

Diabetes mellitus occurs in two forms, insulin-dependent (IDDM, formerly called juvenile type) and non-insulin dependent (NIDDM, formerly called adult type). Prevalence figures from around the world for NIDDM, show that all societies and all races are affected; although uncommon in some populations (.4%), it is common (10%) or very common (40%) in others (Tables 1 and 2).^ In Mexican-Americans in particular, the prevalence rates (7-10%) are intermediate to those in Caucasians (1-2%) and Amerindians (35%). Information about the distribution of the disease and identification of high risk groups for developing glucose intolerance or its vascular manifestations by the study of genetic markers will help to clarify and solve some of the problems from the public health and the genetic point of view.^ This research was designed to examine two general areas in relation to NIDDM. The first aims to determine the prevalence of polymorphic genetic markers in two groups distinguished by the presence or absence of diabetes and to observe if there are any genetic marker-disease association (univariate analysis using two by two tables and logistic regression to study the individual and joint effects of the different variables). The second deals with the effect of genetic differences on the variation in fasting plasma glucose and percent glycosylated hemoglobin (HbAl) (analysis of Covariance for each marker, using age and sex as covariates).^ The results from the first analysis were not statistically significant at the corrected p value of 0.003 given the number of tests that were performed. From the analysis of covariance of all the markers studied, only Duffy and Phosphoglucomutase were statistically significant but poor predictors, given that the amount they explain in terms of variation in glycosylated hemoglobin is very small.^ Trying to determine the polygenic component of chronic disease is not an easy task. This study confirms the fact that a larger and random or representative sample is needed to be able to detect differences in the prevalence of a marker for association studies and in the genetic contribution to the variation in glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin. The importance that ethnic homogeneity in the groups studied and standardization in the methodology will have on the results has been stressed. ^

Desintegración vertical en la industria del automóvil en España: un caso de estudio = Vertical disintegration in the automotive industry in Spain: a case study

En los años recientes se ha producido un rápido crecimiento del comercio internacional en productos semielaborados que son diseñados, producidos y ensamblados en diferentes localizaciones a lo largo de diferentes países, debido principalmente a los siguientes motivos: el desarrollo de las tecnologías de la información, la reducción de los costes de transporte, la liberalización de los mercados de capitales, la armonización de factores institucionales, la integración económica regional que implica la reducción y la eliminación de las barreras al comercio, el desarrollo económico de los países emergentes, el uso de economías de escala, así como una desregulación del comercio internacional. Todo ello ha incrementado la competencia a nivel mundial en los mercados y ha posibilitado a las compañías tener más facilidad de acceso a potenciales mercados, así como a la adquisición de capacidades y conocimientos en otros países y a la realización de alianzas estratégicas internacionales con terceros, creando un entorno con mayor incertidumbre y más exigente para las compañías que componen una industria, y que tiene consecuencias directas en las operaciones de las compañías y en la organización de su producción. Las compañías, para adaptarse, ser competitivas y beneficiarse de este nuevo escenario globalizado y más competitivo, han externalizado partes del proceso productivo hacia proveedores especializados, creando un nuevo mercado intermedio que divide el proceso productivo, anteriormente integrado en las compañías que conforman una industria, entre dos conjuntos de empresas especializadas en esa industria. Dicho proceso suele ocurrir conservando la industria en que tiene lugar, los mismos servicios y productos, la tecnología empleada y las compañías originales que la conformaban previamente a la desintegración vertical. Todo ello es así debido a que es beneficioso tanto para las compañías originales de la industria como para las nuevas compañías de este mercado intermedio por diversos motivos. La desintegración vertical en una industria tiene unas consecuencias que la transforman completamente, así como la forma de operar de las compañías que la integran, incluso para aquellas que permanecen verticalmente integradas. Una de las características más importantes de esta desintegración vertical en una industria es la posibilidad que tiene una compañía de adquirir a una tercera la primera parte del proceso productivo o un bien semielaborado, que posteriormente será finalizado por la compañía adquiriente con la práctica del outsourcing; así mismo, una compañía puede realizar la primera parte del proceso productivo o un bien semielaborado, que posteriormente será finalizado por una tercera compañía con la práctica de la fragmentación. El principal objetivo de la presente investigación es el estudio de los motivos, los facilitadores, los efectos, las consecuencias y los principales factores significativos, microeconómicos y macroeconómicos, que desencadenan o incrementan la práctica de la desintegración vertical en una industria; para ello, la investigación se divide en dos líneas completamente diferenciadas: el estudio de la práctica del outsourcing y, por otro lado, el estudio de la fragmentación por parte de las compañías que componen la industria del automóvil en España, puesto que se trata de una de las industrias más desintegradas verticalmente y fragmentadas, y este sector posee una gran importancia en la economía del país. En primer lugar, se hace una revisión de la literatura existente relativa a los siguientes aspectos: desintegración vertical, outsourcing, fragmentación, teoría del comercio internacional, historia de la industria del automóvil en España y el uso de las aglomeraciones geográficas y las tecnologías de la información en el sector del automóvil. La metodología empleada en cada uno de ellos ha sido diferente en función de la disponibilidad de los datos y del enfoque de investigación: los factores microeconómicos, utilizando el outsourcing, y los factores macroeconómicos, empleando la fragmentación. En el estudio del outsourcing, se usa un índice basado en las compras externas sobre el valor total de la producción. Así mismo, se estudia su correlación y significación con las variables económicas más importantes que definen a una compañía del sector del automóvil, utilizando la técnica estadística de regresión lineal. Aquellas variables relacionadas con la competencia en el mercado, la externalización de las actividades de menor valor añadido y el incremento de la modularización de las actividades de la cadena de valor, han resultado significativas con la práctica del outsourcing. En el estudio de la fragmentación se seleccionan un conjunto de factores macroeconómicos, comúnmente usados en este tipo de investigaciones, relacionados con las principales magnitudes económicas de un país, y un conjunto de factores macroeconómicos, no comúnmente usados en este tipo de investigaciones, relacionados con la libertad económica y el comercio internacional de un país. Se emplea un modelo de regresión logística para identificar qué factores son significativos en la práctica de la fragmentación. De entre todos los factores usados en el modelo, los relacionados con las economías de escala y los costes de servicio han resultado significativos. Los resultados obtenidos de los test estadísticos realizados en el modelo de regresión logística han resultado satisfactorios; por ello, el modelo propuesto de regresión logística puede ser considerado sólido, fiable y versátil; además, acorde con la realidad. De los resultados obtenidos en el estudio del outsourcing y de la fragmentación, combinados conjuntamente con el estado del arte, se concluye que el principal factor que desencadena la desintegración vertical en la industria del automóvil es la competencia en el mercado de vehículos. Cuanto mayor es la demanda de vehículos, más se reducen los beneficios y la rentabilidad para sus fabricantes. Estos, para ser competitivos, diferencian sus productos de la competencia centrándose en las actividades que mayor valor añadido aportan al producto final, externalizando las actividades de menor valor añadido a proveedores especializados, e incrementando la modularidad de las actividades de la cadena de valor. Las compañías de la industria del automóvil se especializan en alguna o varias de estas actividades modularizadas que, combinadas con el uso de factores facilitadores como las economías de escala, las tecnologías de la información, las ventajas de la globalización económica y la aglomeración geográfica de una industria, incrementan y motivan la desintegración vertical en la industria del automóvil, desencadenando la coespecialización en dos sectores claramente diferenciados: el sector de fabricantes de vehículos y el sector de proveedores especializados. Cada uno de ellos se especializa en unas actividades y en unos productos o servicios específicos de la cadena de valor, lo cual genera las siguientes consecuencias en la industria del automóvil: se reducen los costes de transacción en los productos o servicios intercambiados; se incrementan la relación de dependencia entre fabricantes de vehículos y proveedores especializados, provocando un aumento en la cooperación y la coordinación, acelerando el proceso de aprendizaje, posibilitando a ambos adquirir nuevas capacidades, conocimientos y recursos, y creando nuevas ventajas competitivas para ambos; por último, las barreras de entrada a la industria del automóvil y el número de compañías se ven alteradas cambiando su estructura. Como futura línea de investigación, los fabricantes de vehículos tenderán a centrarse en investigar, diseñar y comercializar el producto o servicio, delegando el ensamblaje en manos de nuevos especialistas en la materia, el contract manufacturer; por ello, sería conveniente investigar qué factores motivantes o facilitadores existen y qué consecuencias tendría la implantación de los contract manufacturer en la industria del automóvil. 1.1. ABSTRACT In recent years there has been a rapid growth of international trade in semi-finished products designed, produced and assembled in different locations across different countries, mainly due to the following reasons: development of information technologies, reduction of transportation costs, liberalisation of capital markets, harmonisation of institutional factors, regional economic integration, which involves the reduction and elimination of trade barriers, economic development of emerging countries, use of economies of scale and deregulation of international trade. All these factors have increased competition in markets at a global level and have allowed companies to gain easier access to potential markets and to the acquisition of skills and knowledge in other countries, as well as to the completion of international strategic alliances with third parties, thus creating a more demanding and uncertain environment for these companies constituting an industry, which has a direct impact on the companies' operations and the organization of their production. In order to adapt, be competitive and benefit from this new and more competitive global scenario, companies have outsourced some parts of their production process to specialist suppliers, generating a new intermediate market which divides the production process, previously integrated in the companies that made up the industry, into two sets of companies specialized in that industry. This process often occurs while preserving the industry where it takes place, its same services and products, the technology used and the original companies that formed it prior to vertical disintegration. This is because it is beneficial for both the industry's original companies and the companies belonging to this new intermediate market, for various reasons. Vertical disintegration has consequences which completely transform the industry where it takes place as well as the modus operandi of the companies that are part of it, even of those who remain vertically integrated. One of the most important features of vertical disintegration of an industry is the possibility for a company to acquire from a third one the first part of the production process or a semi-finished product, which will then be finished by the acquiring company through the practice of outsourcing; also, a company can perform the first part of the production process or a semi-finish product, which will then be completed by a third company through the practice of fragmentation. The main objective of this research is to study the motives, facilitators, effects, consequences and major significant microeconomic and macroeconomic factors that trigger or increase the practice of vertical disintegration in a certain industry; in order to do so, research is divided into two completely differentiated lines: on the one hand, the study of the practise of outsourcing and, on the other, the study of fragmentation by companies constituting the automotive industry in Spain, since this is one of the most vertically disintegrated and fragmented industries and this particular sector is of major significance in this country's economy. First, a review is made of the existing literature, on the following aspects: vertical disintegration, outsourcing, fragmentation, international trade theory, history of the automobile industry in Spain and the use of geographical agglomeration and information technologies in the automotive sector. The methodology used for each of these aspects has been different depending on the availability of data and the research approach: the microeconomic factors, using outsourcing, and the macroeconomic factors, using fragmentation. In the study on outsourcing, an index is used based on external purchases in relation to the total value of production. Likewise, their significance and correlation with the major economic variables that define an automotive company are studied, using the statistical technique of linear regression. Variables related to market competition, outsourcing of lowest value-added activities and increased modularisation of the activities of the value chain have turned out to be significant with the practice of outsourcing. In the study of fragmentation, a set of macroeconomic factors commonly used for this type of research, is selected, related to the main economic indicators of a country, as well as a set of macroeconomic factors, not commonly used for this type of research, which are related to economic freedom and the international trade of a certain country. A logistic regression model is used to identify which factors are significant in the practice of fragmentation. Amongst all factors used in the model, those related to economies of scale and service costs have turned out to be significant. The results obtained from the statistical tests performed on the logistic regression model have been successful; hence, the suggested logistic regression model can be considered to be solid, reliable and versatile; likewise, it is in line with reality. From the results obtained in the study of outsourcing and fragmentation, combined with the state of the art, it is concluded that the main factor that triggers vertical disintegration in the automotive industry is competition within the vehicle market. The greater the vehicle demand, the lower the earnings and profitability for manufacturers. These, in order to be competitive, differentiate their products from the competition by focusing on those activities that contribute with the highest added value to the final product, outsourcing the lower valueadded activities to specialist suppliers, and increasing the modularity of the activities of the value chain. Companies in the automotive industry specialize in one or more of these modularised activities which, combined with the use of enabling factors such as economies of scale, information technologies, the advantages of economic globalisation and the geographical agglomeration of an industry, increase and encourage vertical disintegration in the automotive industry, triggering co-specialization in two clearly distinct sectors: the sector of vehicle manufacturers and the specialist suppliers sector. Each of them specializes in certain activities and specific products or services of the value chain, generating the following consequences in the automotive industry: reduction of transaction costs of the goods or services exchanged; growth of the relationship of dependency between vehicle manufacturers and specialist suppliers, which causes an increase in cooperation and coordination, accelerates the learning process, enables both to acquire new skills, knowledge and resources, and creates new competitive advantages for both; finally, barriers to entry the automotive industry and the number of companies are altered, changing their structure. As a future line of research, vehicle manufacturers will tend to focus on researching, designing and marketing the product or service, delegating the assembly in the hands of new specialists in the field, the contract manufacturer; for this reason, it would be useful to investigate what motivating or facilitating factors exist in this respect and what consequences would the implementation of contract manufacturers have in the automotive industry.

Discriminating Crop, Weeds and Soil Surface with a Terrestrial LIDAR Sensor

In this study, the evaluation of the accuracy and performance of a light detection and ranging (LIDAR) sensor for vegetation using distance and reflection measurements aiming to detect and discriminate maize plants and weeds from soil surface was done. The study continues a previous work carried out in a maize field in Spain with a LIDAR sensor using exclusively one index, the height profile. The current system uses a combination of the two mentioned indexes. The experiment was carried out in a maize field at growth stage 12–14, at 16 different locations selected to represent the widest possible density of three weeds: Echinochloa crus-galli (L.) P.Beauv., Lamium purpureum L., Galium aparine L.and Veronica persica Poir.. A terrestrial LIDAR sensor was mounted on a tripod pointing to the inter-row area, with its horizontal axis and the field of view pointing vertically downwards to the ground, scanning a vertical plane with the potential presence of vegetation. Immediately after the LIDAR data acquisition (distances and reflection measurements), actual heights of plants were estimated using an appropriate methodology. For that purpose, digital images were taken of each sampled area. Data showed a high correlation between LIDAR measured height and actual plant heights (R 2 = 0.75). Binary logistic regression between weed presence/absence and the sensor readings (LIDAR height and reflection values) was used to validate the accuracy of the sensor. This permitted the discrimination of vegetation from the ground with an accuracy of up to 95%. In addition, a Canonical Discrimination Analysis (CDA) was able to discriminate mostly between soil and vegetation and, to a far lesser extent, between crop and weeds. The studied methodology arises as a good system for weed detection, which in combination with other principles, such as vision-based technologies, could improve the efficiency and accuracy of herbicide spraying.

Aplicación de la regresión logística en la predicción empírica de fenómenos complejos en obras subterráneas : squeezing y rotura de pilares de carbón

La heterogeneidad del medio geológico introduce en el proyecto de obra subterránea un alto grado de incertidumbre que debe ser debidamente gestionado a fin de reducir los riesgos asociados, que son fundamentalmente de tipo geotécnico. Entre los principales problemas a los que se enfrenta la Mecánica de Rocas moderna en el ámbito de la construcción subterránea, se encuentran la fluencia de roca en túneles (squeezing) y la rotura de pilares de carbón. Es ampliamente conocido que su aparición causa importantes perjuicios en el coste y la seguridad de los proyectos por lo que su estudio, ha estado tradicionalmente vinculado a la predicción de su ocurrencia. Entre las soluciones existentes para la determinación de estos problemas se encuentran las que se basan en métodos analíticos y numéricos. Estas metodologías son capaces de proporcionar un alto nivel de representatividad respecto del comportamiento geotécnico real, sin embargo, su utilización solo es posible cuando se dispone de una suficiente caracterización geotécnica y por tanto de una detallada definición de los parámetros que alimentan los complejos modelos constitutivos y criterios de rotura que los fenómenos estudiados requieren. Como es lógico, este nivel de definición solo es posible cuando se alcanzan etapas avanzadas de proyecto, incluso durante la propia construcción, a fin de calibrar adecuadamente los parámetros introducidos en los modelos, lo que supone una limitación de uso en etapas iniciales, cuando su predicción tiene verdadero sentido. Por su parte, los métodos empíricos permiten proporcionar soluciones a estos complejos problemas de un modo sencillo, con una baja parametrización y, dado su eminente enfoque observacional, de gran fiabilidad cuando se implementan sobre condiciones de contorno similares a las originales. La sencillez y escasez de los parámetros utilizados permiten a estas metodologías ser utilizadas desde las fases preliminares del proyecto, ya que estos constituyen en general, información habitual de fácil y económica adquisición. Este aspecto permite por tanto incorporar la predicción desde el principio del proceso de diseño, anticipando el riesgo en origen. En esta tesis doctoral, se presenta una nueva metodología empírica que sirve para proporcionar predicciones para la ocurrencia de squeezing y el fallo de pilares de carbón basada en una extensa recopilación de información de casos reales de túneles y minas en las que ambos fenómenos fueron evaluados. Esta información, recogida de referencias bibliográficas de prestigio, ha permitido recopilar una de las más extensas bases de datos existentes hasta la fecha relativa a estos fenómenos, lo que supone en sí mismo una importante contribución sobre el estado del arte. Con toda esta información, y con la ayuda de la teoría de clasificadores estadísticos, se ha implementado sobre las bases de datos un clasificador lineal de tipo regresión logística que permite hacer predicciones sobre la ocurrencia de ambos fenómenos en términos de probabilidad, y por tanto ponderar la incertidumbre asociada a la heterogeneidad incorporada por el medio geológico. Este aspecto del desarrollo es el verdadero valor añadido proporcionado por la tesis y la principal ventaja de la solución propuesta respecto de otras metodologías empíricas. Esta capacidad de ponderación probabilística permite al clasificador constituir una solución muy interesante como metodología para la evaluación de riesgo geotécnico y la toma de decisiones. De hecho, y como ejercicio de validación práctica, se ha implementado la solución desarrollada en un modelo coste-beneficio asociado a la optimización del diseño de pilares involucrados en una de mina “virtual” explotada por tajos largos. La capacidad del clasificador para cuantificar la probabilidad de fallo del diseño, junto con una adecuada cuantificación de las consecuencias de ese fallo, ha permitido definir una ley de riesgo que se ha incorporado al balance de costes y beneficios, que es capaz, a partir del redimensionamiento iterativo del sistema de pilares y de la propia configuración de la mina, maximizar el resultado económico del proyecto minero bajo unas condiciones de seguridad aceptables, fijadas de antemano. Geological media variability introduces to the subterranean project a high grade of uncertainty that should be properly managed with the aim to reduce the associated risks, which are mainly geotechnical. Among the major problems facing the modern Rock Mechanics in the field of underground construction are both, the rock squeezing while tunneling and the failure of coal pillars. Given their harmfulness to the cost and safety of the projects, their study has been traditionally linked to the determination of its occurrence. Among the existing solutions for the determination of these problems are those that are based on analytical and numerical methods. Those methodologies allow providing a high level of reliability of the geotechnical behavior, and therefore a detailed definition of the parameters that feed the complex constitutive models and failure criteria that require the studied phenomena. Obviously, this level of definition is only possible when advanced stages of the project are achieved and even during construction in order to properly calibrate the parameters entered in the models, which suppose a limited use in early stages, when the prediction has true sense. Meanwhile, empirical methods provide solutions to these complex problems in a simple way, with low parameterization and, given his observational scope, with highly reliability when implemented on similar conditions to the original context. The simplicity and scarcity of the parameters used allow these methodologies be applied in the early stages of the project, since that information should be commonly easy and cheaply to get. This aspect can therefore incorporate the prediction from the beginning of the design process, anticipating the risk beforehand. This thesis, based on the extensive data collection of case histories of tunnels and underground mines, presents a novel empirical approach used to provide predictions for the occurrence of both, squeezing and coal pillars failures. The information has been collected from prestigious references, providing one of the largest databases to date concerning phenomena, a fact which provides an important contribution to the state of the art. With all this information, and with the aid of the theory of statistical classifiers, it has been implemented on both databases, a type linear logistic regression classifier that allows predictions about the occurrence of these phenomena in terms of probability, and therefore weighting the uncertainty associated with geological variability. This aspect of the development is the real added value provided by the thesis and the main advantage of the proposed solution over other empirical methodologies. This probabilistic weighting capacity, allows being the classifier a very interesting methodology for the evaluation of geotechnical risk and decision making. In fact, in order to provide a practical validation, we have implemented the developed solution within a cost-benefit analysis associated with the optimization of the design of coal pillar systems involved in a "virtual" longwall mine. The ability of the classifier to quantify the probability of failure of the design along with proper quantification of the consequences of that failure, has allowed defining a risk law which is introduced into the cost-benefits model, which is able, from iterative resizing of the pillar system and the configuration of the mine, maximize the economic performance of the mining project under acceptable safety conditions established beforehand.

El perfil de los consumidores de productos de comercio justo. Análisis de las variables que influyen en su intención de compra

El consumo mundial, impulsor del desarrollo y crecimiento económico de los pueblos, no ha sido igual para todas las naciones, ya que sus efectos han sido diferentes para los ciudadanos de los países del Norte y los del Sur, principalmente por dos razones: una, porque han originado complejos y diferentes estilos de vida y aspiraciones, lo que ha originado grandes diferencias entre los individuos de unos y otros países, y, dos, por su falta de valores sociales y éticos. Ante esta situación, la sociedad en su conjunto debe tomar conciencia de este hecho, y a través de un consumo responsable y de un mayor conocimiento de las relaciones comerciales entre los pueblos, debe optar por consumir productos elaborados bajo criterios de justicia y equidad. Para ayudar a alcanzar estos objetivos de equidad, solidaridad, justicia y ética, nació el Comercio Justo, que, en el caso de España, llegó con veinte años de retraso en la década de los ochenta. Aunque a día de hoy sus ventas crecen a un buen ritmo, siguen siendo inferiores al resto de los países europeos, por cuatro razones: (1) el desconocimiento que la mayoría de los potenciales consumidores tienen de este movimiento social; (2) la dificultad de acceder a los productos que comercializan; (3) el poco impulso que se ofrece desde las Administraciones Públicas; y, (4) porque hay pocas investigaciones en las que se haya analizado el Comercio Justo desde la perspectiva de la demanda, lo que ha implicado que no haya un conocimiento profundo sobre los consumidores de este tipo de productos y sobre sus motivaciones de compra. En base a todo lo expuesto, el presente trabajo se concibe como un estudio exploratorio, que tiene como objetivo principal analizar el perfil de los consumidores y no consumidores de productos de Comercio Justo, sus motivaciones de compra y no compra, así como las variables que influyen en la intención de compra futura, tanto en el segmento de consumidores actuales, como en el segmento de no consumidores de este tipo de productos. Para la realización de este trabajo, se ha utilizado, por una parte, una metodología cualitativa, que ha permitido acceder a la información sobre las opiniones y actitudes que intervienen en los procesos de decisión de compra; y, por otra, una metodología cuantitativa, a través de una encuesta online dirigida a 6.500 individuos, que ha permitido tener información, a través de sendos análisis descriptivos univariante y bivariante, de los individuos encuestados sobre el objeto del estudio. Para validar los modelos y contrastar las hipótesis planteadas, se ha utilizado el análisis de fiabilidad y validación de las escalas de medición seleccionadas (Alpha de Cronbach); el análisis factorial exploratorio, para comprobar la dimensionalidad y validez convergente de las escalas de medida; el análisis factorial confirmatorio, para validar la idoneidad de los modelos de medida propuestos; la regresión logística, para comprobar la validez del modelo general de la probabilidad de la compra o no compra de productos de Comercio Justo; y la regresión lineal múltiple, para comprobar la validez de los modelos específicos de intención de compra futura en los segmentos de compradores y de no compradores. Para realizar todos estos análisis, se han utilizado las herramientas informáticas SPSS v21 y AMOS. Las principales conclusiones del trabajo son: (1) que se deben establecer unos criterios claros que definan quién es quién en el movimiento de Comercio Justo, sus fines, sus objetivos, los productos que comercializan, así como su funcionamiento y desarrollo en España; (2) que, a pesar de las grandes ventajas y posibilidades del Comercio Justo, hay una falta de demanda de estos productos por parte de los consumidores responsables, debido principalmente a la falta de información-comunicación sobre el propio movimiento, y, muy especialmente, a la falta de información sobre los productos, los canales de comercialización, las políticas de precios, las políticas de comunicación, etc., y a la necesidad de que estos productos estén accesibles en los lugares donde los consumidores hacen su compra habitual; y (3) que el Comercio Justo español debe afrontar una serie de desafíos, como son la coordinación entre las diferentes organizaciones que participan en su desarrollo; la sensibilización de los consumidores; la creación de una imagen de marca que defina de una manera clara y sencilla qué es el Comercio Justo; la orientación al cliente y no al producto; y extender la red de comercialización de productos de Comercio Justo a los canales donde los consumidores hacen su compra habitualmente. ABSTRACT Global consumption, the driver of economic growth and development of nations, is not the same for all countries, since its effects have been different on people coming from the North or the South. This is due mainly to two reasons: firstly, because they have developed complex and different lifestyles and aspirations, which have led to significant differences between individuals of one country and another and secondly, because they lack social and ethical values. Given this situation, society as a whole should be aware of this fact, and through responsible consumption and a greater knowledge of trade relations between countries, should opt for consuming products produced with criteria of justice and equity. Fair Trade began as a way to help reach these goals of equity, solidarity, justice and ethics. In the case of Spain it did not start until 20 years later, in the eighties. Although today sales of Fair Trade products are growing at a good rate, they are still below that of other European countries, for four reasons: (1) unawareness of this social movement; (2) the difficult access to these products; (3) insufficient government support; (4) the limited research carried out to analyse Fair Trade from the perspective of demand, resulting in a lack of knowledge about this type of consumer and their purchasing motivations. Based on the above, the present study is designed as an exploratory investigation, aimed at analyzing the profile of consumers and non-consumers of Fair Trade, their motivations for buying and not buying, as well as the variables which influence future purchase intention in both the current consumer segment, and the non-user segment of such products. To carry out this study we have used, on the one hand, a qualitative methodology, to obtain information about the views and attitudes involved in the purchase decision process; and on the other, a quantitative methodology, through an online survey of 6,500 individuals, which provided information through two separate univariate and bivariate descriptive analysis, of the individuals interviewed about the object of this study. To validate the models and contrast hypotheses, we have used the reliability analysis and validation of the selected measurement scales (Cronbach's Alpha); exploratory factor analysis to verify the dimensionality and convergent validity of the measurement scales; confirmatory factor analysis to validate the adequacy of the models of measurement proposed; logistic regression, to verify the validity of the general model of the probability of buying or not buying Fair Trade products; and multiple linear regression to test the validity of specific models in future purchase intention in the segments of buyers and non-buyers. To carry out these analyses, we used SPSS v21 software tools and AMOS. The principal conclusions of the investigation are: (1) the need to establish clear criteria which define who is who in the Fair Trade movement, its goals, objectives, the products they sell, as well as its operation and development in Spain; (2) that despite the great advantages and possibilities of Fair Trade, there is a lack of demand for these products by responsible consumers, mainly due to the lack of information-communication about the movement itself, and especially on the range of products, sales channels, pricing policies, communication policies, etc., and the need for these products to be available in places where consumers make their usual purchase; and (3) that Spanish Fair Trade must address a number of challenges such as: coordination between the different organizations involved in trade development; consumer awareness; creation of a brand image that defines in a clear and simple way what Fair Trade is; focus on the customer rather than the product; and expansion of the network of Fair Trade sales outlets to include the channels where consumers usually make their purchases.

Putting teeth into the developmental origins hypothesis: A longitudinal study of early childhood malnutrition, enamel hypoplasia and adolescent health in Amazonian Bolivia

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Adherence to antiepileptic medicines in children:a multiple-methods assessment involving dried blood spot sampling

Purpose - To evaluate adherence to prescribed antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) in children with epilepsy using a combination of adherence-assessment methods. Methods - A total of 100 children with epilepsy (≤17 years old) were recruited. Medication adherence was determined via parental and child self-reporting (≥9 years old), medication refill data from general practitioner (GP) prescribing records, and via AED concentrations in dried blood spot (DBS) samples obtained from children at the clinic and via self- or parental-led sampling in children's own homes. The latter were assessed using population pharmacokinetic modeling. Patients were deemed nonadherent if any of these measures were indicative of nonadherence with the prescribed treatment. In addition, beliefs about medicines, parental confidence in seizure management, and the presence of depressed mood in parents were evaluated to examine their association with nonadherence in the participating children. Key Findings - The overall rate of nonadherence in children with epilepsy was 33%. Logistic regression analysis indicated that children with generalized epilepsy (vs. focal epilepsy) were more likely (odds ratio [OR] 4.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37–15.81) to be classified as nonadherent as were children whose parents have depressed mood (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.16–11.41). Significance - This is the first study to apply the novel methodology of determining adherence via AED concentrations in clinic and home DBS samples. The present findings show that the latter, with further development, could be a useful approach to adherence assessment when combined with other measures including parent and child self-reporting. Seizure type and parental depressed mood were strongly predictive of nonadherence.

Potential causes of ethnic group disparities in infertility:a hospital database study

Introduction - Lower success rates of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) in South East Asian countries compared to Western countries in informal studies and surveys was considered a reflection of variations in methodology and expertise. However, recent studies on the effects of ethnicity on success rates of infertility procedures in western countries have suggested other inherent contributing factors to the ethnic disparity but the evidence evaluating these is lacking. In our study we aim to investigate some of the comorbidities that might cause ethnic disparity to infertility and related procedures from hospital admissions data. Methods - Anonymous hospital admissions data on patients of various ethnic groups with infertility, comorbidities and infertility procedures from multiple hospitals in Birmingham andManchester, UK between 2000 and 2013 were obtained from the local health authority computerised hospital activity analysis register using ICD-10 and OPCS coding systems. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 20.Results Of 522 223 female patients aged 18 and over, there were44 758 (8.4%) patients from South Asian (SA) community. 1156(13.4%) of the 8653 patients coded for infertility were SA, whichis a considerably higher proportion of the background SA population. For IVF procedures, the percentage of SA increased to15.4% (233 of the total 1479 patients). The mean age of SA codedfor infertility (30.6 ± 4.7 SD years versus 32.8 ± 4.9 SD years)and IVF (30.4 ± 4.3 SD years versus 32.7 ± 4.4 SD years) was significantly lower than caucasian patien ts (P < 0.001). A multivariate logistic regression model looking at patients with infertility, accounting for variations in age, showed that SA have significantly higher prevalence of hypothyroidism, obesity andiron-deficiency anaemia compared to caucasians but lower prevalence of endometriosis. Interestingly, psychiatric and psychological conditions diagnoses were seldom registered in infertility patients. Conclusion - Other studies suggest that various cultural, lifestyles, psychosocial and socio-economic factors may explain the disparities in IVF success rates between South Asians and caucasians. The fact that SA infertility and IVF patients, in ou rstudy, were significantly younger than caucasians and that their proportion is considerably higher than the background South Asian population suggests the influence of these factors. A significant psychiatric disease burden in other conditions and low numbers in our data suggest under diagnosis in this group.Despite the limitations of the coding data, from our study, we propose that hypothyroidism, obesity and/or iron-deficiency anaemia should be considered for the ethnic disparity. Further research in this topic is essential to fully investigate the reasons for such ethnic disparities.

Secondary stakeholders as agents of influence: Three essays on political risk, reputation, and multinational performance

Organizational researchers have recently taken an interest in the ways in which social movements, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other secondary stakeholders attempt to influence corporate behavior. Scholars, however, have yet to carefully probe the link between secondary stakeholder legal action and target firm stock market performance. This is puzzling given the sharp rise in NGO-initiated civil lawsuits against corporations in recent years for alleged overseas human rights abuses and environmental misconduct. Furthermore, few studies have considered how such lawsuits impact a target firm’s intangible assets, namely its image and reputation. Structured in the form of three essays, this dissertation examined the antecedents and consequences of secondary stakeholder legal activism in both conceptual and empirical settings. ^ Essay One argued that conventional approaches to understanding political risk fail to account for the reputational risks to multinational enterprises (MNEs) posed by transnational networks of human rights NGOs employing litigation-based strategies. It offered a new framework for understanding this emerging challenge to multinational corporate activity. Essay Two empirically tested the relationship between the filing of human rights-related civil lawsuits and corporate stock market performance using an event study methodology and regression analysis. The statistical analysis performed showed that target firms experience a significant decline in share price upon filing and that both industry and nature of the lawsuit are significantly and negatively related to shareholder wealth. Essay Three drew upon social movement and social identity theories to develop and test a set of hypotheses on how secondary stakeholder groups select their targets for human rights-related civil lawsuits. The results of a logistic regression model offered support for the proposition that MNE targets are chosen based on both interest and identity factors. The results of these essays suggest that legal action initiated by secondary stakeholder groups is a new and salient threat to multinational business and that firms doing business in countries with weak political institutions should factor this into corporate planning and take steps to mitigate their exposure to such risks.^

Measured parental weight status and familial socio-economic status correlates with childhood overweight and obesity at age 9

Background: Parental obesity is a predominant risk factor for childhood obesity. Family factors including socio-economic status (SES) play a role in determining parent weight. It is essential to unpick how shared family factors impact on child weight. This study aims to investigate the association between measured parent weight status, familial socio-economic factors and the risk of childhood obesity at age 9. Methodology/Principal Findings: Cross sectional analysis of the first wave (2008) of the Growing Up in Ireland (GUI) study. GUI is a nationally representative study of 9-year-old children (N = 8,568). Schools were selected from the national total (response rate 82%) and age eligible children (response rate 57%) were invited to participate. Children and their parents had height and weight measurements taken using standard methods. Data were reweighted to account for the sampling design. Childhood overweight and obesity prevalence were calculated using International Obesity Taskforce definitions. Multinomial logistic regression examined the association between parent weight status, indicators of SES and child weight. Overall, 25% of children were either overweight (19.3%) or obese (6.6%). Parental obesity was a significant predictor of child obesity. Of children with normal weight parents, 14.4% were overweight or obese whereas 46.2% of children with obese parents were overweight or obese. Maternal education and household class were more consistently associated with a child being in a higher body mass index category than household income. Adjusted regression indicated that female gender, one parent family type, lower maternal education, lower household class and a heavier parent weight status significantly increased the odds of childhood obesity. Conclusions/Significance: Parental weight appears to be the most influential factor driving the childhood obesity epidemic in Ireland and is an independent predictor of child obesity across SES groups. Due to the high prevalence of obesity in parents and children, population based interventions are required.

Numerical encoding to tame SQL injection attacks.

Recent years have seen an astronomical rise in SQL Injection Attacks (SQLIAs) used to compromise the confidentiality, authentication and integrity of organisations’ databases. Intruders becoming smarter in obfuscating web requests to evade detection combined with increasing volumes of web traffic from the Internet of Things (IoT), cloud-hosted and on-premise business applications have made it evident that the existing approaches of mostly static signature lack the ability to cope with novel signatures. A SQLIA detection and prevention solution can be achieved through exploring an alternative bio-inspired supervised learning approach that uses input of labelled dataset of numerical attributes in classifying true positives and negatives. We present in this paper a Numerical Encoding to Tame SQLIA (NETSQLIA) that implements a proof of concept for scalable numerical encoding of features to a dataset attributes with labelled class obtained from deep web traffic analysis. In the numerical attributes encoding: the model leverages proxy in the interception and decryption of web traffic. The intercepted web requests are then assembled for front-end SQL parsing and pattern matching by applying traditional Non-Deterministic Finite Automaton (NFA). This paper is intended for a technique of numerical attributes extraction of any size primed as an input dataset to an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and statistical Machine Learning (ML) algorithms implemented using Two-Class Averaged Perceptron (TCAP) and Two-Class Logistic Regression (TCLR) respectively. This methodology then forms the subject of the empirical evaluation of the suitability of this model in the accurate classification of both legitimate web requests and SQLIA payloads.

Financing social ventures by crowdfunding: The inflluence of entrepreneurs’ personality traits

Purpose – This research aims to understand the role played by social entrepreneurs’ personality traits on the choice between the traditional donation model and social crowdfunding (CF) to finance social projects. Design/methodology/approach – Social CF is examined as an instrument to capture funds for social projects, and the particular case of the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange (PSSE) is presented. The approach is quantitative in nature and the data were collected through a questionnaire that was emailed to non-governmental organizations in Portugal and founders of the projects listed on PSSE. Logistic regression was employed to predict the probability that a social entrepreneur would use PSSE rather than traditional financing. The predictor variables were based on the big five personality traits. Findings – Our investigation reveals that the agreeableness and neuroticism factors were not even considered in the results of the factorial analysis, which indicates the minor importance of these personality traits in the funding decisions of the Portuguese social entrepreneurs. The same applies to the factors of openness to new experiences and extraversion, which, although considered in the logistic analysis, showed no statistical significance. Finally, the conscientiousness personality trait seems to be the only factor that might explain the use of the PSSE platform.Originality/value – Studies on the profile of the social entrepreneurs that use CF for financing social projects are relatively rare, specifically in the context of Social Stock Exchange platforms. Additionally, there is a need to carry out more empirical evidence about the effect of social entrepreneurs’ personality traits on the decision to finance social projects through social CF platforms vis-a-vis the traditional donation model.

EFFECT OF FARMING PRACTICES AND FARM HISTORY ON INCIDENCE OF COCONUT LETHAL YELLOWING IN MOZAMBIQUE

Management of coconut ( Cocos nucifera ) lethal yellowing disease (CLYD), which has killed about eight million coconut trees in Mozambique, has proved challenging. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of farming practices and related history, on the CLYD incidence in Mozambique. The methodology included a socioeconomic questionnaire to the households and direct observations on the palm farms. The collected data were analysed using logistic regression. Five out of 11 explanatory variables tested, namely farm age, availability of other palm species on the coconut farm, type of coconut varieties grown, root cut practices, and intercropping had a significant (P< 0.05) effect on CLYD incidence. Coconut farms <10 years had higher odds of higher disease incidence compared to the farms between 10 to 40 years old. The presence of other palm species in the coconut farms had two times higher odds of having higher disease incidence levels compared to farms without other palm species. Tall coconut varieties were likely to be more tolerant to CLYD compared to dwarf varieties. Coconut farms with some kind of intercropping had two times higher odds of having higher disease incidence levels compared to pure stands. The practice of cutting coconut roots had three times higher odds of having high disease incidence levels compared to non-practicing farms. Farm age, availability of other palm species on the coconut farm, type of coconut varieties grown, root cut practices and intercropping need to be considered for integrated CLYD management.