Solving the Levins' paradox in the logistic model to the population growth

We introduce a new method to improve Markov maps by means of a Bayesian approach. The method starts from an initial map model, wherefrom a likelihood function is defined which is regulated by a temperature-like parameter. Then, the new constraints are added by the use of Bayes rule in the prior distribution. We applied the method to the logistic map of population growth of a single species. We show that the population size is limited for all ranges of parameters, allowing thus to overcome difficulties in interpretation of the concept of carrying capacity known as the Levins paradox. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Logistic platforms: conceptual elements and the role of the public sector

This edition of the FAL Bulletin approaches the issue of logistic platforms and the public sector’s role in the development of the logistic sector.

Epidemiologia da mancha de phaeosphaeria e da cercosporiose em milho

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Saúde sexual e reprodutiva de mulheres vivendo com HIV/AIDS atendidas em Hospital Dia

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The AIDS epidemic in the Amazon region: a spatial case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil

OBJETIVO Analisar mudanças espaciais no risco de Aids e a relação entre incidência da doença e variáveis socioeconômicas. MÉTODOS Estudo caso-controle espacial, de base populacional, realizado em Rondônia, Brasil, com 1.780 casos notificados pelo Sistema de Vigilância Epidemiológica e os controles a partir de dados demográficos de 1987 a 2006. Os casos foram agrupados em cinco períodos de cinco anos consecutivos. Um modelo aditivo generalizado foi ajustado aos dados. O status dos indivíduos (caso ou controle) foi considerado como a variável dependente e independente: um alisamento ( spline ) bidimensional das coordenadas geográficas e variáveis socioeconômicas municipais. Os valores observados para o teste Moran I foram comparados com a distribuição de referência dos valores obtidos em condições de aleatoriedade espacial. RESULTADOS O risco de Aids apresentou padrão espacial e temporal marcado. A incidência associou-se a indicadores socioeconômicos municipais, como urbanização e capital humano. As maiores taxas de incidência de Aids ocorreram em municípios ao longo da rodovia BR-364; os resultados do teste Moran I mostram correlação espacial positiva associada à contiguidade dos municípios com a rodovia, no terceiro e quarto períodos (p = 0,05). CONCLUSÕES A incidência da doença foi maior em municípios de maior riqueza econômica e urbanização e naqueles cortados pelas estradas principais de Rondônia. O rápido desenvolvimento associado à ocupação de regiões remotas pode ser acompanhado por aumento de riscos à saúde.

Relaxation to Fixed Points in the Logistic and Cubic Maps: Analytical and Numerical Investigation

Convergence to a period one fixed point is investigated for both logistic and cubic maps. For the logistic map the relaxation to the fixed point is considered near a transcritical bifurcation while for the cubic map it is near a pitchfork bifurcation. We confirmed that the convergence to the fixed point in both logistic and cubic maps for a region close to the fixed point goes exponentially fast to the fixed point and with a relaxation time described by a power law of exponent -1. At the bifurcation point, the exponent is not universal and depends on the type of the bifurcation as well as on the nonlinearity of the map.

Inflection and stability points of diphasic logistic analysis of growth

Growth functions with inflection points following a diphasic model, can be adjusted by two approaches using segmented regression or the sum of two functions. In both cases, there are two functions, one for each phase, with inflection and stability points. However, when they are summed, the result is a new function and the points of inflection and stability are different from those obtained from using each function individually. A method to determine these points in a diphasic logistics sum of functions is suggested and the results obtained from fitting the models to eucalyptus growth data showed a better fit of the logistic diphasic sum as compared with segmented regression and monophasic logistic models.

Optimal control strategy for fed-batch enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass based on epidemic modeling

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Assessment of the relationship between entomologic indicators of Aedes aegypti and the epidemic occurrence of dengue virus 3 in a susceptible population, São José do Rio Preto, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bat coronavirus in brazil related to appalachian ridge and porcine epidemic diarrhea viruses

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Space-time description of dengue epidemic in Cruzeiro, SP, in 2006 and 2011

Objective: to identify patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of cases of dengue fever occurring in the city of Cruzeiro, state of Sao Paulo (SP).Methods: an ecological and exploratory study was undertaken using spatial analysis tools and data from dengue cases obtained on the SinanNet. The analysis was carried out by area, using the IBGE census sector as a unit. The months of March to June 2006 and 2011 were assessed, revealing progress of the disease. TerraView 3.3.1 was used to calculate the Global Moran's I, month to month, and the Kernel estimator.Results: in the year 2006, 691 cases of dengue fever (rate of 864.2 cases/100,000 inhabitants) were georeferenced; and the Moran's I and p-values were significant in the months of April and May (TM = 0.28; p = 0.01; I-M = 0.20; p = 0.01) with higher densities in the central, north, northeast and south regions. In the year 2011, 654 cases of dengue fever (rate of 886.8 cases/100,000 inhabitants) were georeferenced; and the Moran's I and p-values were significant in the months of April and May (I, = 0.28; p = 0.01; I-M = 0.16; p = 0.05) with densities in the same regions as 2006. The Global Moran's I is a global measure of spatial autocorrelation, which indicates the degree of spatial association in the set of information from the product in relation to the average. The I varies between -1 and +1 and can be attributed to a level of significance (p-value). The positive value points to a positive or direct spatial autocorrelation.Conclusion: we were able to identify patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue cases occurring in the city of Cruzeiro, SP, and locate the census sectors where the outbreak began and how it evolved.

Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdos-Renyi (ER), Barabasi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.

Effect of potassium silicate on epidemic components of powdery mildew on melon

The effects of silicon (Si) supplied in the form of potassium silicate (PS) were evaluated on epidemic components of powdery mildew of melon under greenhouse conditions. The PS was applied to the roots or to leaves. In the first experiment, epidemic components were evaluated after inoculation with Podosphaera xanthii. In the second experiment, the disease progress rate was evaluated on plants subjected to natural infection. The area under the disease progress curve was reduced by 65% and 73% in the foliar and root treatments, respectively, compared to control plants, as a consequence of reductions in infection efficiency, colony expansion rate, colony area, conidial production and disease progress rate. However, root application of PS was more effective than foliar application in reducing most of the epidemic components, except for infection efficiency. This can be explained by the high Si concentration in leaf tissues with root application, in contrast to the foliar treatment where Si was only deposited on the external leaf surfaces. The effects of PS reported in this study demonstrated that powdery mildew of melon can be controlled, and that the best results can be achieved when PS is supplied to the roots.

Prevalence and vulnerability of homeless people to HIV infection in Sao Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence and vulnerability of homeless people to HIV infection. METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted with a non-probabilistic sample of 1,405 homeless users of shelters in the city of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2007. They were all tested for HIV and a structured questionnaire was applied. Their vulnerability to HIV was determined by the frequency of condom use: those who reported using condoms only occasionally or never were considered the most vulnerable. Multinomial and logistic regression models were used to estimate effect measures and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: There was a predominance of males (85.6%), with a mean age of 40.9 years, 72.0% had complete elementary schooling, and 71.5% were non-white. Of all respondents, 15.7% reported being homosexual or bisexual and 62,0% reported having casual sex. The mean number of sexual partners in the last 12 months was 5.4. More than half (55.7%) of the respondents reported lifetime drug use, while 25.7% reported frequent use. Sexually-transmitted disease was reported by 39.6% of the homeless and 38.3% reported always using condoms. The prevalence of HIV infection was 4.9% (17.4% also tested positive for syphilis) and about half of the respondents (55.4%) had access to prevention programs. Higher HIV prevalence was associated with younger age (18-29 years, OR = 4.0 [95% CI 1.54; 10.46]); past history of sexually-transmitted disease (OR = 3.3 [95% CI 1.87; 5.73]); homosexual sex (OR = 3.0 [95% CI 1.28; 6.92]); and syphilis (OR = 2.4 [95% CI 1.13; 4.93]). Increased vulnerability to HIV infection was associated with being female; young; homosexual sex; having few partners or a steady partner; drug and alcohol use; not having access to prevention programs and social support. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV epidemic has a major impact on homeless people reflecting a cycle of exclusion, social vulnerability, and limited access to prevention.

The white epidemic and the asepsis of refined earthenware in Belle Epoque Sao Paulo

The article examines Brazilian refined earthenwares known as faianca fina (fine faience) and relates ideas about its production to the contextual backdrop of hygienist discourses in the city of Sao Paulo in the early twentieth century. Based on an analysis of glaze components, moisture expansion processes, and technological aspects of the production of earthenware recovered from the Petybon archeological site, it is suggested that the establishment of factories and the production and consumption of white ceramics in the city of Sao Paulo were partially a consequence of the vigorous hygienization policies and modernity projects then advocated by Sao Paulo's elites.