Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Effect of framework design on crown failure

This study evaluated the effect of core-design modification on the characteristic strength and failure modes of glass-infiltrated alumina (In-Ceram) (ICA) compared with porcelain fused to metal (PFM). Premolar crowns of a standard design (PFMs and ICAs) or with a modified framework design (PFMm and ICAm) were fabricated, cemented on dies, and loaded until failure. The crowns were loaded at 0.5 mm min(-1) using a 6.25 mm tungsten-carbide ball at the central fossa. Fracture load values were recorded and fracture analysis of representative samples were evaluated using scanning electron microscopy. Probability Weibull curves with two-sided 90% confidence limits were calculated for each group and a contour plot of the characteristic strength was obtained. Design modification showed an increase in the characteristic strength of the PFMm and ICAm groups, with PFM groups showing higher characteristic strength than ICA groups. The PFMm group showed the highest characteristic strength among all groups. Fracture modes of PFMs and of PFMm frequently reached the core interface at the lingual cusp, whereas ICA exhibited bulk fracture through the alumina core. Core-design modification significantly improved the characteristic strength for PFM and for ICA. The PFM groups demonstrated higher characteristic strength than both ICA groups combined.

Earth pressure on cantilever walls at design retained heights

There are many methods for the analysis and design of embedded cantilever retaining walls. They involve various different simplifications of the pressure distribution to allow calculation of the limiting equilibrium retained height and the bending moment when the retained height is less than the limiting equilibrium value, i.e. the serviceability case. Recently, a new method for determining the serviceability earth pressure and bending moment has been proposed. This method makes an assumption defining the point of zero net pressure. This assumption implies that the passive pressure is not fully mobilised immediately below the excavation level. The finite element analyses presented in this paper examine the net pressure distribution on walls in which the retained height is less, than the limiting equilibrium value. The study shows that for all practical walls, the earth pressure distributions on the front and back of the wall are at their limit values, Kp and K-a respectively, when the lumped factor of safety F-r is less than or equal to2.0. A rectilinear net pressure distribution is proposed that is intuitively logical. It produces good predictions of the complete bending moment diagram for walls in the service configuration and the proposed method gives results that have excellent agreement with centrifuge model tests. The study shows that the method for determining the serviceability bending moment suggested by Padfield and Mair(1) in the CIRIA Report 104 gives excellent predictions of the maximum bending moment in practical cantilever walls. It provides the missing data that have been needed to verify and justify the CIRIA 104 method.

Briefing: Factored material properties and limit state loads-unlikely extreme or impossible pretense

In the limit state design (LSD) method each design criterion is formally stated and assessed using a performance function. The performance function defines the relationship between the design parameters and the design criterion. In practice, LSD involves factoring up loads and factoring down calculated strengths and material parameters. This provides a convenient way to carry out routine probabilistic-based design. The factors are statistically calculated to produce a design with an acceptably low probability of failure. Hence the ultimate load and the design material properties are mathematical concepts that have no physical interpretation. They may be physically impossible. Similarly, the appropriate analysis model is also defined by the performance function and may not describe the real behaviour at the perceived physical equivalent limit condition. These points must be understood to avoid confusion in the discussion and application of partial factor LSD methods.

Activity of recombinant dengue 2 virus NS3 protease in the presence of a truncated NS2B co-factor, small peptide substrates, and inhibitors

Recombinant forms of the dengue 2 virus NS3 protease linked to a 40-residue co-factor, corresponding to part of NS2B, have been expressed in Escherichia coli and shown to be active against para-nitroanilide substrates comprising the P6-P1 residues of four substrate cleavage sequences. The enzyme is inactive alone or after the addition of a putative 13-residue co-factor peptide but is active when fused to the 40-residue co-factor, by either a cleavable or a noncleavable glycine linker. The NS4B/NS5 cleavage site was processed most readily, with optimal processing conditions being pH 9, I = 10 mm, 1 mm CHAPS, 20% glycerol. A longer 10-residue peptide corresponding to the NS2B/NS3 cleavage site (P6-P4') was a poorer substrate than the hexapeptide (P6-P1) para-nitroanilide substrate under these conditions, suggesting that the prime side substrate residues did not contribute significantly to protease binding. We also report the first inhibitors of a co-factor-complexed, catalytically active flavivirus NS3 protease. Aprotinin was the only standard serine protease inhibitor to be active, whereas a number of peptide substrate analogues were found to be competitive inhibitors at micromolar concentrations.

A portable load cell for in-situ ore impact breakage testing

This paper discusses the design and characterisation of a short, and hence portable impact load cell for in-situ quantification of ore breakage properties under impact loading conditions. Much literature has been published in the past two decades about impact load cells for ore breakage testing. It has been conclusively shown that such machines yield significant quantitative energy-fragmentation information about industrial ores. However, documented load cells are all laboratory systems that are not adapted for in-situ testing due to their dimensions and operating requirements. The authors report on a new portable impact load cell designed specifically for in-situ testing. The load cell is 1.5 m in height and weighs 30 kg. Its physical and operating characteristics are detailed in the paper. This includes physical dimensions, calibration and signal deconvolution. Emphasis is placed on the deconvolution issue, which is significant for such a short load cell. Finally, it is conclusively shown that the short load cell is quantitatively as accurate as its larger laboratory analogues. (C) 2062 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Blast design using measurement while drilling parameters

Measurement while drilling (MWD) techniques can provide a useful tool to aid drill and blast engineers in open cut mining. By avoiding time consuming tasks such as scan-lines and rock sample collection for laboratory tests, MWD techniques can not only save time but also improve the reliability of the blast design by providing the drill and blast engineer with the information specially tailored for use. While most mines use a standard blast pattern and charge per blasthole, based on a single rock factor for the entire bench or blast region, information derived from the MWD parameters can improve the blast design by providing more accurate rock properties for each individual blasthole. From this, decisions can be made on the most appropriate type and amount of explosive charge to place in a per blasthole or to optimise the inter-hole timing detonation time of different decks and blastholes. Where real-time calculations are feasible, the system could extend the present blast design even be used to determine the placement of subsequent holes towards a more appropriate blasthole pattern design like asymmetrical blasting.

Knowledge-based system on optimum design of liquid retaining structures with genetic algorithms

This paper delineates the development of a prototype hybrid knowledge-based system for the optimum design of liquid retaining structures by coupling the blackboard architecture, an expert system shell VISUAL RULE STUDIO and genetic algorithm (GA). Through custom-built interactive graphical user interfaces under a user-friendly environment, the user is directed throughout the design process, which includes preliminary design, load specification, model generation, finite element analysis, code compliance checking, and member sizing optimization. For structural optimization, GA is applied to the minimum cost design of structural systems with discrete reinforced concrete sections. The design of a typical example of the liquid retaining structure is illustrated. The results demonstrate extraordinarily converging speed as near-optimal solutions are acquired after merely exploration of a small portion of the search space. This system can act as a consultant to assist novice designers in the design of liquid retaining structures.

A coupled knowledge-based expert system for design of liquid-retaining structures

This paper describes a coupled knowledge-based system (KBS) for the design of liquid-retaining structures, which can handle both the symbolic knowledge processing based on engineering heuristics in the preliminary synthesis stage and the extensive numerical crunching involved in the detailed analysis stage. The prototype system is developed by employing blackboard architecture and a commercial shell VISUAL RULE STUDIO. Its present scope covers design of three types of liquid-retaining structures, namely, a rectangular shape with one compartment, a rectangular shape with two compartments and a circular shape. Through custom-built interactive graphical user interfaces, the user is directed throughout the design process, which includes preliminary design, load specification, model generation, finite element analysis, code compliance checking and member sizing optimization. It is also integrated with various relational databases that provide the system with sectional properties, moment and shear coefficients and final member details. This system can act as a consultant to assist novice designers in the design of liquid-retaining structures with increase in efficiency and optimization of design output and automated record keeping. The design of a typical example of the liquid-retaining structure is also illustrated. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Multilayer transverse gradient coil design

In small, cylindrical gradient coils consisting of a single layer of wires, the limiting factor in achieving large magnetic field gradients is the rapid increase in coil resistance with efficiency. This behavior results from the decrease in the maximum usable wire diameter as the number of turns is increased. By adopting a multilayer design in which the coil wires are allowed to spread out into multiple layers wound at increasing radii, a more favorable scaling of resistance with efficiency is achieved, thus allowing the design of more powerful gradient coils with acceptable resistance values. By extending the theory used to design standard cylindrical gradient coils, mathematical expressions have been developed that allow the design of multilayer coils. These expressions have previously been applied to the design of a four-layer z-gradient coil. As a further development, the equations have now been modified to allow the design of multilayer transverse gradient coils. The variation in coil performance with the number of layers employed has been investigated for coils of a size suitable for use in NMR microscopy, and the effect of constructing the coil using wires or cuts in a continuous conducting surface has also been assessed. We find that at fixed resistance a small wire-wound two-layer coil offers an increase in efficiency of a factor of about 1.5 compared with a single-layer coil. In addition, a two-layer coil of 10-mm inner diameter has been designed and built. This coil had an efficiency of 0.41 Tm-1 A(-1), a resistance of 0.96 +/- 0.01 Omega, and an inductance of 22.3 +/- 0.2 muH. The coil produces a gradient that deviates from linearity by less than 5% over a central cylindrical region of interest of height and length 6.2 mm. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Nitrification of high strength ammonia wastewtaer treatment - process selection is the major factor.

Biological nitrogen removal via the nitrite pathway in wastewater treatment is very important in Saving the cost of aeration and as an electron donor for denitrification. Wastewater nitrification and nitrite accumulation were carried out in a biofilm airlift reactor with autotrophic nitrifying biofilm. The biofilm reactor showed almost complete nitrification and most of the oxidized ammonium was present as nitrite at the ammonium load of 1.5 to 3.5 kg N/m3.d. Nitrite accumulation was stably achieved by the selective inhibition of nitrite oxidizers with free ammonia and dissolved oxygen limitation. Stable 100% conversion to nitrite could also be achieved even under the absence of free ammonia inhibition on nitrite oxidizers. Batch ammonium oxidation and nitrite oxidation with nitrite accumulating nitrifying biofilm showed that nitrite Oxidation was completely inhibited when free ammonia is higher than 0.2 mg N/L. However, nitrite oxidation activity was recovered as soon as the free ammonia concentration was below the threshold level when dissolved oxygen concentration was not the limiting factor. Fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis of cryosectioned nitrite accumulating nitrifying biofilm showed that the β-subclass of Proteobacteria, where ammonia oxidizers belong, was distributed outside the biofilm whereas the α-subclass of Proteobacteria, where nitrite oxidizers belong, was found mainly in the inner part of the biofilm. It is likely that dissolved oxygen deficiency or limitation in the inner part of the nitrifying biofilm, where nitrite oxidizers exist, is responsible for the complete shut down of the nitrite oxidizers activity under the absence of free ammonia inhibition.

A reduced load approximation accounting for link interactions in a loss network

This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of loss networks. Accurate determination of loss network performance can assist in the design and dimen- sioning of telecommunications networks. However, exact determination can be difficult and generally cannot be done in reasonable time. For these reasons there is much interest in developing fast and accurate approximations. We develop a reduced load approximation that improves on the famous Erlang fixed point approximation (EFPA) in a variety of circumstances. We illustrate our results with reference to a range of networks for which the EFPA may be expected to perform badly.

Child-care attendance and common morbidity: evidence of association in the literature and questions of design

Papers on child-care attendance as a risk factor for acute respiratory infections and diarrhea were reviewed. There was great variety among the studies with regard to the design, definition of exposure and definition of outcomes. All the traditional epidemiological study designs have been used. The studies varied in terms of how child-care attendance in general was defined, and for different settings. These definitions differed especially in relation to the minimum time of attendance required. The outcomes were also defined and measured in several different ways. The analyses performed were not always appropriate, leading to sets of results of uneven quality, and composed of different measures of association relating different exposures and outcomes, that made summarizing difficult. Despite that, the results reported were remarkably consistent. Only two of the papers reviewed failed to show some association between child-care attendance and increased acute respiratory infections, or diarrhea. On the other hand, the magnitude of the associations reported varied widely, especially for lower respiratory infections. Taken together, the studies so far published provide evidence that children attending child-care centers, especially those under three years of age, are at a higher risk of upper respiratory infections, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhea. The studies were not consistent, however, in relation to attendance at child-care homes. Children in such settings were sometimes similar to those in child-care centers, sometimes similar to those cared for at home, and sometimes presented an intermediate risk.