A review on artificial intelligence based load demand forecasting techniques for smart grid and buildings

Electrical load forecasting plays a vital role in order to achieve the concept of next generation power system such as smart grid, efficient energy management and better power system planning. As a result, high forecast accuracy is required for multiple time horizons that are associated with regulation, dispatching, scheduling and unit commitment of power grid. Artificial Intelligence (AI) based techniques are being developed and deployed worldwide in on Varity of applications, because of its superior capability to handle the complex input and output relationship. This paper provides the comprehensive and systematic literature review of Artificial Intelligence based short term load forecasting techniques. The major objective of this study is to review, identify, evaluate and analyze the performance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) based load forecast models and research gaps. The accuracy of ANN based forecast model is found to be dependent on number of parameters such as forecast model architecture, input combination, activation functions and training algorithm of the network and other exogenous variables affecting on forecast model inputs. Published literature presented in this paper show the potential of AI techniques for effective load forecasting in order to achieve the concept of smart grid and buildings.

Limnology of Macrobrachium amazonicum grow-out ponds subject to high inflow of nutrient-rich water and different stocking and harvest management

We evaluated the water characteristics and particle sedimentation in Macrobrachium amazonicum (Heller 1862) grow-out ponds supplied with a high inflow of nutrient-rich water. Prawns were subject to different stocking and harvesting strategies: upper-graded juveniles, lower-graded juveniles, non-graded juveniles + selective harvesting and traditional farming (non-grading juveniles and total harvest only). Dissolved oxygen, afternoon N-ammonia and N-nitrate and soluble orthophosphate were lower in the ponds in comparison with inflow water through the rearing cycle. Ponds stocked with the upper population fraction of graded prawns showed higher turbidity, total suspended solids and total Kjeldahl nitrogen than the remaining treatments. An increase in the chemical oxygen demand:biochemical oxygen demand ratio from inlet (4.9) to pond (7.1-8.0) waters indicated a non-readily biodegradable fraction enhancement in ponds. The sedimentation mean rate ranged from 0.08 to 0.16 mm day(-1) and sediment contained >80% of organic matter. The major factors affecting pond ecosystem dynamic were the organic load (due to primary production and feed addition) and bioturbation caused by stocking larger animals. Data suggest that M. amazonicum grow-out in ponds subjected to a high inflow of nutrient-rich water produce changes in the water properties, huge accumulation of organic sediment at the pond bottom and non-readily biodegradable material in the water column. However, the water quality remains suitable for aquaculture purposes. Therefore, nutrient-rich waters, when available, may represent a source of unpaid nutrients, which may be incorporated into economically valued biomass if managed properly.

An effortless hybrid method to solve economic load dispatch problem in power systems

This paper proposes a new approach and coding scheme for solving economic dispatch problems (ED) in power systems through an effortless hybrid method (EHM). This novel coding scheme can effectively prevent futile searching and also prevents obtaining infeasible solutions through the application of stochastic search methods, consequently dramatically improves search efficiency and solution quality. The dominant constraint of an economic dispatch problem is power balance. The operational constraints, such as generation limitations, ramp rate limits, prohibited operating zones (POZ), network loss are considered for practical operation. Firstly, in the EHM procedure, the output of generator is obtained with a lambda iteration method and without considering POZ and later in a genetic based algorithm this constraint is satisfied. To demonstrate its efficiency, feasibility and fastness, the EHM algorithm was applied to solve constrained ED problems of power systems with 6 and 15 units. The simulation results obtained from the EHM were compared to those achieved from previous literature in terms of solution quality and computational efficiency. Results reveal that the superiority of this method in both aspects of financial and CPU time. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Foraging Behavior of the Swarm-Founding Wasp, Polybia (Trichothorax) sericea (Hymenoptera, Vespidae): Prey Capture and Load Capacity

The main component of the protein diet of P. sericea was larvae of Lepidoptera (75.38%), with predominance of the following Families: Noctuidae (30.99%), Hesperiidae (19.01%); Pyralidae (19.01%) and Nymphalidae (11.98%). The average weight of the prey captured was 14.2 mg, a value equivalent to 24.7% of the average wasp weight. The average glucidic food load was 28.61 mg, corresponding to approximately half the wasp weight (49.64%). The weight of the load transported in the crop varied according to the food density, which, in turn, influenced the time spent in its collection (Pearson: n=64; r=0.64;p<0.05). Polybia sericea showed predatory interactions against Lepidopteran caterpillars, who are known to be agricultural pests. P. sericea has potential to be used in Integrated Pest Management.

Interdisciplinary approach to the management of Ewing sarcoma: A case report

Ewing sarcoma is a common primary bone malignancy occurring in childhood and adolescence. This case report describes a 4-year-old female patient who had Ewing sarcoma in the left clavicular region. The patient underwent total excision of the left clavicle and subsequently developed periodontitis and multiple carious lesions after chemotherapy. Caries risk and salivary flow rate tests were performed, followed by periodontal treatment, topical fluoride application, restoration of caries, and oral hygiene instruction. The care of this patient demonstrates that an interdisciplinary approach is essential to eliminate all foci of infection, minimize morbidity, and improve the patient's general health before, during, and after oncological treatment. © 2012 Special Care Dentistry Association and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Failure of miniplate osteosynthesis for the management of atrophic mandibular fracture

Fractures of the severely atrophic (<10 mm) edentulous mandible are not common, and these fractures with a vertical height of 10 mm or less have long been recognized as being particularly problematic. Although there are advances in the treatment of the atrophic mandibular fracture, the treatment remains controversial. There are some options for treatment planning because of using small miniplates to large reconstruction plates. However, when the fixation method fails, it causes malunion, nonunion, and/or infection, and sometimes it has been associated with large bone defects. The authors describe a clinical report of a failed miniplate fixation for atrophic mandibular fracture management. The authors used a load-bearing reconstruction plate combined with autogenous bone graft from iliac crest for this retreatment. The authors show a follow-up of 6 months, with union of the fracture line and no complication postoperatively. © 2013 by Mutaz B. Habal, MD.

Desenvolvimento de um sistema de gerenciamento de energia (EMS - Energy Management System) para a rede elétrica inteligente (Smart Grid)

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Centralized vs. Distributed Connection Management Schemes under Different Traffic Patterns in Wavelength-Convertible Optical Networks

Centralized and Distributed methods are two connection management schemes in wavelength convertible optical networks. In the earlier work, the centralized scheme is said to have lower network blocking probability than the distributed one. Hence, much of the previous work in connection management has focused on the comparison of different algorithms in only distributed scheme or in only centralized scheme. However, we believe that the network blocking probability of these two connection management schemes depends, to a great extent, on the network traffic patterns and reservation times. Our simulation results reveal that the performance improvement (in terms of blocking probability) of centralized method over distributed method is inversely proportional to the ratio of average connection interarrival time to reservation time. After that ratio increases beyond a threshold, those two connection management schemes yield almost the same blocking probability under the same network load. In this paper, we review the working procedure of distributed and centralized schemes, discuss the tradeoff between them, compare these two methods under different network traffic patterns via simulation and give our conclusion based on the simulation data.

Modeling systems and vis/NIR device to improve peach and nectarine pre and post-harvest fruit maturity management

During the last decade peach and nectarine fruit have lost considerable market share, due to increased consumer dissatisfaction with quality at retail markets. This is mainly due to harvesting of too immature fruit and high ripening heterogeneity. The main problem is that the traditional used maturity indexes are not able to objectively detect fruit maturity stage, neither the variability present in the field, leading to a difficult post-harvest management of the product and to high fruit losses. To assess more precisely the fruit ripening other techniques and devices can be used. Recently, a new non-destructive maturity index, based on the vis-NIR technology, the Index of Absorbance Difference (IAD), that correlates with fruit degreening and ethylene production, was introduced and the IAD was used to study peach and nectarine fruit ripening from the “field to the fork”. In order to choose the best techniques to improve fruit quality, a detailed description of the tree structure, of fruit distribution and ripening evolution on the tree was faced. More in details, an architectural model (PlantToon®) was used to design the tree structure and the IAD was applied to characterize the maturity stage of each fruit. Their combined use provided an objective and precise evaluation of the fruit ripening variability, related to different training systems, crop load, fruit exposure and internal temperature. Based on simple field assessment of fruit maturity (as IAD) and growth, a model for an early prediction of harvest date and yield, was developed and validated. The relationship between the non-destructive maturity IAD, and the fruit shelf-life, was also confirmed. Finally the obtained results were validated by consumer test: the fruit sorted in different maturity classes obtained a different consumer acceptance. The improved knowledge, leaded to an innovative management of peach and nectarine fruit, from “field to market”.

HIV-1 coreceptor usage and CXCR4-specific viral load predict clinical disease progression during combination antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: Although combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) dramatically reduces rates of AIDS and death, a minority of patients experience clinical disease progression during treatment. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether detection of CXCR4(X4)-specific strains or quantification of X4-specific HIV-1 load predict clinical outcome. METHODS: From the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 96 participants who initiated cART yet subsequently progressed to AIDS or death were compared with 84 contemporaneous, treated nonprogressors. A sensitive heteroduplex tracking assay was developed to quantify plasma X4 and CCR5 variants and resolve HIV-1 load into coreceptor-specific components. Measurements were analyzed as cofactors of progression in multivariable Cox models adjusted for concurrent CD4 cell count and total viral load, applying inverse probability weights to adjust for sampling bias. RESULTS: Patients with X4 variants at baseline displayed reduced CD4 cell responses compared with those without X4 strains (40 versus 82 cells/microl; P = 0.012). The adjusted multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for clinical progression was 4.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-10.0] for those demonstrating X4 strains at baseline. The X4-specific HIV-1 load was a similarly independent predictor, with HR values of 3.7 (95% CI, 1.2-11.3) and 5.9 (95% CI, 2.2-15.0) for baseline loads of 2.2-4.3 and > 4.3 log10 copies/ml, respectively, compared with < 2.2 log10 copies/ml. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-1 coreceptor usage and X4-specific viral loads strongly predicted disease progression during cART, independent of and in addition to CD4 cell count or total viral load. Detection and quantification of X4 strains promise to be clinically useful biomarkers to guide patient management and study HIV-1 pathogenesis.

Ecological study of the predictors of successful management of dyslipidemia in HIV-infected patients on ART: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

PURPOSE: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) may induce metabolic changes and increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Based on a health care system approach, we investigated predictors for normalization of dyslipidemia in HIV-infected individuals receiving ART. METHOD: Individuals included in the study were registered in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), had dyslipidemia but were not on lipid-lowering medication, were on potent ART for >or= 3 months, and had >or= 2 follow-up visits. Dyslipidemia was defined as two consecutive total cholesterol (TC) values above recommended levels. Predictors of achieving treatment goals for TC were assessed using Cox models. RESULTS: Analysis included 958 individuals with median followup of 2.3 years (IQR 1.2-4.0). 454 patients (47.4%) achieved TC treatment goals. In adjusted analyses, variables significantly associated with a lower hazard of reaching TC treatment goals were as follows: older age (compared to 18-37 year olds: hazard ratio [HR] 0.62 for 45-52 year olds, 95% CI 0.47-0.82; HR 0.40 for 53-85, 95% CI 0.29-0.54), diabetes (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.26-0.59), history of coronary heart disease (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10-0.71), higher baseline TC (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.85), baseline triple nucleoside regimen (HR 0.12 compared to PI-only regimen, 95% CI 0.07-0.21), longer time on PI-only regimen (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.33-0.46), longer time on NNRTI only regimen (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.29-0.43), and longer time on PI/NNRTI regimen (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.26-0.43). Switching ART regimen when viral load was undetectable was associated with a higher hazard of reaching TC treatment goals (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.14-1.91). CONCLUSION: In SHCS participants on ART, several ART-related and not ART-related epidemiological factors were associated with insufficient control of dyslipidemia. Control of dyslipidemia in ART recipients must be further improved.

Learning software-maintenance tasks in offshoring projects: a cognitive-load perspective

Individual learning is central to the success of the transition phase in software mainte-nance offshoring projects. However, little is known on how learning activities, such as on-the-job training and formal presentations, are effectively combined during the tran-sition phase. In this study, we present and test propositions derived from cognitive load theory. The results of a multiple-case study suggest that learning effectiveness was highest when learning tasks such as authentic maintenance requests were used. Con-sistent with cognitive load theory, learning tasks were most effective when they imposed moderate cognitive load. Our data indicate that cognitive load was influenced by the expertise of the onsite coordinator, by intrinsic task complexity, by the degree of specifi-cation of tasks, and by supportive information. Cultural and semantic distances may in-fluence learning by inhibiting supportive information, specification, and the assignment of learning tasks.

A survey of paediatric HIV programmatic and clinical management practices in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa--the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA)

INTRODUCTION There are limited data on paediatric HIV care and treatment programmes in low-resource settings. METHODS A standardized survey was completed by International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS paediatric cohort sites in the regions of Asia-Pacific (AP), Central Africa (CA), East Africa (EA), Southern Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) to understand operational resource availability and paediatric management practices. Data were collected through January 2010 using a secure, web-based software program (REDCap). RESULTS A total of 64,552 children were under care at 63 clinics (AP, N=10; CA, N=4; EA, N=29; SA, N=10; WA, N=10). Most were in urban settings (N=41, 65%) and received funding from governments (N=51, 81%), PEPFAR (N=34, 54%), and/or the Global Fund (N=15, 24%). The majority were combined adult-paediatric clinics (N=36, 57%). Prevention of mother-to-child transmission was integrated at 35 (56%) sites; 89% (N=56) had access to DNA PCR for infant diagnosis. African (N=40/53) but not Asian sites recommended exclusive breastfeeding up until 4-6 months. Regular laboratory monitoring included CD4 (N=60, 95%), and viral load (N=24, 38%). Although 42 (67%) sites had the ability to conduct acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smears, 23 (37%) sites could conduct AFB cultures and 18 (29%) sites could conduct tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing. Loss to follow-up was defined as >3 months of lost contact for 25 (40%) sites, >6 months for 27 sites (43%) and >12 months for 6 sites (10%). Telephone calls (N=52, 83%) and outreach worker home visits to trace children lost to follow-up (N=45, 71%) were common. CONCLUSIONS In general, there was a high level of patient and laboratory monitoring within this multiregional paediatric cohort consortium that will facilitate detailed observational research studies. Practices will continue to be monitored as the WHO/UNAIDS Treatment 2.0 framework is implemented.

Relating goal scheduling, precedence, and memory management in and-parallel execution of logic programs

The interactions among three important issues involved in the implementation of logic programs in parallel (goal scheduling, precedence, and memory management) are discussed. A simplified, parallel memory management model and an efficient, load-balancing goal scheduling strategy are presented. It is shown how, for systems which support "don't know" non-determinism, special care has to be taken during goal scheduling if the space recovery characteristics of sequential systems are to be preserved. A solution based on selecting only "newer" goals for execution is described, and an algorithm is proposed for efficiently maintaining and determining precedence relationships and variable ages across parallel goals. It is argued that the proposed schemes and algorithms make it possible to extend the storage performance of sequential systems to parallel execution without the considerable overhead previously associated with it. The results are applicable to a wide class of parallel and coroutining systems, and they represent an efficient alternative to "all heap" or "spaghetti stack" allocation models.