Tourism life cycle, tourism competitiveness and upgrading strategies in the Caribbean

In the 1980s Butler adapted the life cycle product model to the tourism industry and created the “Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model”. The model recognizes six stages in the tourism product life cycle: exploration, investment, development, consolidation, stagnation and followed, after stagnation, by decline or revitalization of the product. These six stages can in turn be regrouped into four main stages. The Butler model has been applied to more than 30 country cases with a wide degree of success. De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy (1992) applied the TALC model to 23 small Caribbean island States in the 1990s. Following De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy, the TALC is applied to the 32 member countries of the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) (except for Cancun and Cozumel) to locate their positions along their tourism life-cycle in 2007. This is done using the following indicators: the evolution of the level, market share and growth rate of stay-over arrivals; the growth rate and market share of visitor expenditures per arrival and the tourism styles of the destinations, differentiating between ongoing mass tourism and niche marketing strategies and among upscale, mid-scale and low-scale destinations. Countries have pursued three broad classes of strategies over the last 15 years in order to move upward in their tourism life cycle and enhance their tourism competitiveness. There is first a strategy that continues to rely on mass-tourism to build on the comparative advantages of “sun, sand and sea”, scale economies, all-inclusive packages and large amounts of investment to move along in Stage 2 or Stage 3 (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico). There is a second strategy pursued mainly by very small islands that relies on developing specific niche markets to maintain tourism competitiveness through upgrading (Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, British Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos), allowing them to move from Stage 2 to Stage 3 or Stage 3 to a rejuvenation stage. There is a third strategy that uses a mix of mass-tourism, niche marketing and quality upgrading either to emerge onto the intermediate stage (Trinidad and Tobago); avoid decline (Aruba, The Bahamas) or rejuvenate (Barbados, Jamaica and the United States Virgin Islands). There have been many success stories in Caribbean tourism competitiveness and further research should aim at empirically testing the determinants of tourism competitiveness for the region as a whole.

A vulnerabilidade da ictiofauna à invasão por espécies de peixes: um modelo baseado no indivíduo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Positive Affection Measurement: Subjective Well-Being in Married People

The study analyzed the correlations among the different factors of subjective well-being (SWB) using a sample of 106 married people with an average of 16.11 years of marriage. The following instruments were used: Sociodemographic Questionnaire, Socioeconomic Questionnaire, and Subjective Well-being Scale (SWBS). Data analyses were conducted using the Software R and a multivariate model to understand the correlations among the factors of the SWBS. All factors of the SWBS were significantly inter-correlated, which confirm the results of the scale validation study. Future studies are necessary to evaluate the SWB in couples (dyads), which can help to understand whether this concept is influenced by the spouse or only by the marital status.

Ocupação, bem-estar e satisfação de vida: a experiência de um modelo alternativo de estágio em terapia ocupacional na Austrália

Apresenta-se um modelo alternativo de estágio em terapia ocupacional desenvolvido na Deakin University - Austrália, denominado Ocupação, bem-estar e satisfação de vida - Occupation, wellness and life-satisfaction (OWLS). O OWLS oferece, aos estudantes, a oportunidade de atuação em contextos não tradicionais, permitindo um aprendizado estratégico em ambientes não clínicos, incluindo o trabalho com outros profissionais não-terapeutas ocupacionais e com diferentes culturas de trabalho e práticas, em resposta a lacunas identificadas na comunidade. Favorece oportunidades para desenvolver habilidades, tais como: a promoção da saúde, avaliação e educação em saúde e intervenção em escolas, melhorando, assim, a saúde e o bem-estar da comunidade. O programa tem contribuído para o desenvolvimento de novos projetos, com resultados positivos alcançados pelos estudantes, representando uma importante estratégia de ensino para capacitação do profissional de terapia ocupacional, ampliando, assim, a área de atuação.

Does Satisfaction with Democracy really increase Happiness? Direct Democracy and Individual Satisfaction in Switzerland

This paper takes the influential “direct democracy makes people happy”-research as a starting point and asks whether direct democracy impacts individual satisfaction. Unlike former studies we distinguish two aspects of individual satisfaction, namely satisfaction with life (“happiness”) and with how democracy works. Based on multilevel analysis of the 26 Swiss cantons we show that the theoretical assumption on which the happiness hypothesis is based has to be questioned, as there is very little evidence for a robust relationship between satisfaction with democracy and life satisfaction. Furthermore, we do not find a substantive positive effect of direct democracy on happiness. However, with respect to satisfaction with democracy, our analysis shows some evidence for a procedural effect of direct democracy, i.e. positive effects related to using direct democratic rights, rather than these rights per se.

Vulnerability Following a Critical Life Event: Temporary Crisis or Chronic Distress? A Psychological Controversy, Methodological Considerations, and Empirical Evidence

This contribution deals with psychological vulnerability resulting from marital breakup after a long-term relationship. Despite the existing vast body of consolidated knowledge on divorce and psychological adaptation, there are still several controversies concerning the vulnerabilizing impact of marital breakup. One major issue refers to the question of whether vulnerability after marital breakup is a temporary crisis or rather a chronic strain. In this chapter we want to present two possible methodological options to tackle this question: First, comparing a sample of almost 1000 middle-aged persons, who were married on average 19 years, and who experienced a marital split within the last 5 years (4 time groups), with a group of age-matched married controls with regard to various indicators of psychological vulnerability (such as depression and hopelessness). Second, comparing within the divorced group the most vulnerable individuals (in terms of depression, hopelessness, life satisfaction) with those who were the least affected, regarding intra-personal resources (personality, resilience), divorce circumstances, post-divorce situation, and socio-economic resources. The study results underline the vulnerabilizing impact of marital breakup, but at the same time they reveal individual differences in psychological adaptation especially due to personality, new partnership, economic resources, and last but not least due to time. Furthermore our data strongly suggest that there is not a generalized psychological vulnerability after marital breakup, but that the emotional dimensions such as depression or feelings of not overcoming the loss are more affected than the more cognitive ones such as life satisfaction.

Psychological adaptation to spousal loss in old age: The role of personality

Spousal loss is an inevitable critical life event for most individuals in old age, mostly associated with a negative impact on various well-being measures, ie. lower life satisfaction, higher rates of loneliness and depressive symptoms compared to married peers. While the negative effects on well-being are well documented in literature, the modifying factors accounting for the large variability in adaptation to loss are discussed controversially. The potential relevance of personality in the adaptation process has rarely been examined and findings regarding the role of time since loss are contradictory. Based on a vulnerability-stress-model this contribution aims a) to compare psychological well-being of bereaved individuals with married counterparts and b) to investigate the protective effects of different personality traits (Big Five, resilience), and the role of time since loss for adaptation in terms of life satisfaction, loneliness and depression. Data from a questionnaire study about the loss of a spouse in middle and old age in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are reported. The study is part of the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research LIVES (Swiss National Science Foundation). The sample consists of 351 widowed persons (39% men, widowed since 0 - 5 years), and 605 married controls (50% men), aged 60 - 89 years. Group comparisons reveal the detrimental effect of spousal bereavement on all indicators of psychological adaptation. Results from hierarchical regression analyses show furthermore, that the effect of spousal loss on all psychological outcomes is moderated by personality traits. Separate analyses with the group of bereaved individuals suggest, that the protective effect of personality varies by the time passed since loss. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the variability in psychological adaptation to spousal loss in old age and give hints for counselling practice.

Effectiveness of integrated care including therapeutic assertive community treatment in severe schizophrenia spectrum and bipolar I disorders: the 24-month follow-up ACCESS II study

OBJECTIVE The ACCESS treatment model offers assertive community treatment embedded in an integrated care program to patients with psychoses. Compared to standard care and within a controlled study, it proved to be more effective in terms of service disengagement and illness outcomes in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders over 12 months. ACCESS was implemented into clinical routine and its effectiveness assessed over 24 months in severe schizophrenia spectrum disorders and bipolar I disorder with psychotic features (DSM-IV) in a cohort study. METHOD All 115 patients treated in ACCESS (from May 2007 to October 2009) were included in the ACCESS II study. The primary outcome was rate of service disengagement. Secondary outcomes were change of psychopathology, severity of illness, psychosocial functioning, quality of life, satisfaction with care, medication nonadherence, length of hospital stay, and rates of involuntary hospitalization. RESULTS Only 4 patients (3.4%) disengaged with the service. Another 11 (9.6%) left because they moved outside the catchment area. Patients received a mean of 1.6 outpatient contacts per week. Involuntary admissions decreased from 34.8% in the 2 previous years to 7.8% during ACCESS (P < .001). Mixed models repeated-measures analyses revealed significant improvements among all patients in psychopathology (effect size d = 0.64, P < .001), illness severity (d = 0.84, P = .03), functioning level (d = 0.65, P < .001), quality of life (d = 0.50, P < .001), and client satisfaction (d = 0.11, P < .001). At 24 months, 78.3% were fully adherent to medication, compared to 25.2% at baseline (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS ACCESS was successfully implemented in clinical routine and maintained excellent rates of service engagement and other outcomes in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders or bipolar I disorder with psychotic features over 24 months. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01888627.

The positive effects of protean career attitude for self-initiated expatriates: Cultural adjustment as a mediator

Purpose – The authors sought to explain why and how protean career attitude might influence self‐initiated expatriates' (SIEs) experiences positively. A mediation model of cultural adjustment was proposed and empirically evaluated. Design/methodology/approach – Data from 132 SIEs in Germany containing measures of protean career attitude, cultural adjustment, career satisfaction, life satisfaction, and intention to stay in the host country were analysed using path analysis with a bootstrap method. Findings – Empirical results provide support for the authors' proposed model: the positive relations between protean career attitude and the three expatriation outcomes (career satisfaction, life satisfaction and intention to stay in the host country) were mediated by positive cross‐cultural adjustment of SIEs. Research limitations/implications – All data were cross‐sectional from a single source. The sample size was small and included a large portion of Chinese participants. The study should be replicated with samples in other destination countries, and longitudinal research is suggested. Practical implications – By fostering both a protean career attitude in skilled SIE employees and their cultural adjustment, corporations and receiving countries could be able to retain this international workforce better in times of talent shortage. Originality/value – This study contributes to the scarce research on the conceptual relatedness of protean career attitude and SIEs, as well as to acknowledging the cultural diversity of the SIE population.

Marital split-up and widowhood in old age: Differential impact on psychological and social well-being

Marital split-up and spousal loss are among the most stressful critical life events. Numerous studies have documented their detrimental effects on well-being, yet the large individual differences in psychological adaptation are still not well understood. Whereas in old age bereavement is normative and can be anticipated, divorce is an “off-time” transition for this age group. In contrast to bereavement which has been amply studied, research on later life divorce is still missing despite the increasing relevance of the topic due to the significant increase of divorces in older age. Based on a modified and extended view of Amato’s divorce-stress-adjustment model (2000), the aim of this contribution is to explore the differential impact of marital split-up and widowhood in older age on psychological (life satisfaction) and social well-being (social loneliness), and the adaptation to these critical life events. Our analyses are based on data gathered in a questionnaire study, which is part of the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research LIVES. In a first step we compared three groups of individuals aged 60 to 75 years: a sample of 251 persons with a marital split-up (127 women; 123 men), a sample of 270 widowed persons (170 women; 100 men), and a group of 221 continuously married people (110 women; 111 men), which served as control group. In a second step, we investigated the role of socio-demographic variables, intrapersonal and interpersonal resources and variables of the context of loss as predictors for the psychological adaptation to a marital break-up and loss in old age. First results by ANCOVA indicate significant differences with regard to life satisfaction among the three groups, with divorced persons with the lowest scores, followed by the bereaved ones, and the married controls with the highest. Regarding social loneliness, divorced individuals report higher social loneliness than the bereaved group and the married controls (no significant difference between widowed and the married). In both loss groups, financial and intrapersonal resources, as well as the emotional valence of the loss are the most important predictors for the psychological and social adaptation. However, happiness in the past relationship is an important resource regarding the indicators for adaptation for the widowers, but not for individuals with a marital dissolution.

Heterogeneity in the Relationship between Happiness and Age: Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel

This paper studies the evolution of life satisfaction over the life course in Germany. It clarifies the causal interpretation of the econometric model by discussing the choice of control variables and the underidentification between age, cohort and time effects. The empirical part analyzes the distribution of life satisfaction over the life course at the aggregated, subgroup and individual level. To the findings: On average, life satisfaction is mildly decreasing up to age 55 followed by a hump shape with a maximum at 70. The analysis at the lower levels suggests that people differ in their life satisfaction trends, whereas the hump shape after age 55 is robust. No important differences between men and women are found. In contrast, education groups differ in their trends: highly educated people become happier over the life cycle, where life satisfaction decreases for less-educated people.

Marital stability, satisfaction and well-being in old age: Variability and continuity in long-term continuously married older persons

Objectives: Recent research shows that the well-documented positive effects of marital stability on well-being and health outcomes are conditional upon the quality of marriage. To date, few studies have explored the relationship between marital satisfaction, well-being and health among very long-term married individuals. This study aims at identifying groups of long-term married persons with respect to marital satisfaction and comparing them longitudinally concerning their well-being outcomes, marital stressors, personality and socio-demographic variables. Method: Data are derived from a survey (data collection 2012 and 2014) with 374 continuously married individuals at wave 1 (mean age: 74.2 years, length of marriage: 49.2 years) and 252 at wave 2. Cluster analyses were performed comparing the clusters with regard to various well-being outcomes. The predictive power of cluster affiliation and various predictors at wave 1 on well-being outcomes at wave 2 was tested using regression analyses. Results: Two groups were identified, one happily the other unhappily married, with the happily married scoring higher on all well-being and health outcomes. Regression analyses revealed that group affiliation at wave 1 was not any longer predictive of health, emotional loneliness and hopelessness two years later, when taking into account socio-demographic variables, psychological resilience and marital strain, whereas it remained an important predictor of life satisfaction and social loneliness. Conclusion: Marital satisfaction is associated with health and well-being in older couples over time, whereas psychological resilience and marital strain are major predictors explaining the variance of these outcomes.

Logistic regression models for ordinal response: A study of self-efficacy in colorectal cancer screening

The ordinal logistic regression models are used to analyze the dependant variable with multiple outcomes that can be ranked, but have been underutilized. In this study, we describe four logistic regression models for analyzing the ordinal response variable. ^ In this methodological study, the four regression models are proposed. The first model uses the multinomial logistic model. The second is adjacent-category logit model. The third is the proportional odds model and the fourth model is the continuation-ratio model. We illustrate and compare the fit of these models using data from the survey designed by the University of Texas, School of Public Health research project PCCaSO (Promoting Colon Cancer Screening in people 50 and Over), to study the patient’s confidence in the completion colorectal cancer screening (CRCS). ^ The purpose of this study is two fold: first, to provide a synthesized review of models for analyzing data with ordinal response, and second, to evaluate their usefulness in epidemiological research, with particular emphasis on model formulation, interpretation of model coefficients, and their implications. Four ordinal logistic models that are used in this study include (1) Multinomial logistic model, (2) Adjacent-category logistic model [9], (3) Continuation-ratio logistic model [10], (4) Proportional logistic model [11]. We recommend that the analyst performs (1) goodness-of-fit tests, (2) sensitivity analysis by fitting and comparing different models.^

POLYCHOTOMOUS LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS (HYPERTENSION, CORONARY HEART DISEASE)

The history of the logistic function since its introduction in 1838 is reviewed, and the logistic model for a polychotomous response variable is presented with a discussion of the assumptions involved in its derivation and use. Following this, the maximum likelihood estimators for the model parameters are derived along with a Newton-Raphson iterative procedure for evaluation. A rigorous mathematical derivation of the limiting distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators is then presented using a characteristic function approach. An appendix with theorems on the asymptotic normality of sample sums when the observations are not identically distributed, with proofs, supports the presentation on asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, two applications of the model are presented using data from the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program, a prospective, population-based, randomized trial of treatment for hypertension. The first application compares the risk of five-year mortality from cardiovascular causes with that from noncardiovascular causes; the second application compares risk factors for fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease with those for fatal or nonfatal stroke. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SERUM CHOLESTEROL AND CANCER INCIDENCE IN THE POPULATION OF THE HYPERTENSION DETECTION AND FOLLOW-UP PROGRAM

The relationship between serum cholesterol and cancer incidence was investigated in the population of the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program (HDFP). The HDFP was a multi-center trial designed to test the effectiveness of a stepped program of medication in reducing mortality associated with hypertension. Over 10,000 participants, ages 30-69, were followed with clinic and home visits for a minimum of five years. Cancer incidence was ascertained from existing study documents, which included hospitalization records, autopsy reports and death certificates. During the five years of follow-up, 286 new cancer cases were documented. The distribution of sites and total number of cases were similar to those predicted using rates from the Third National Cancer Survey. A non-fasting baseline serum cholesterol level was available for most participants. Age, sex, and race specific five-year cancer incidence rates were computed for each cholesterol quartile. Rates were also computed by smoking status, education status, and percent ideal weight quartiles. In addition, these and other factors were investigated with the use of the multiple logistic model.^ For all cancers combined, a significant inverse relationship existed between baseline serum cholesterol levels and cancer incidence. Previously documented associations between smoking, education and cancer were also demonstrated but did not account for the relationship between serum cholesterol and cancer. The relationship was more evident in males than females but this was felt to represent the different distribution of occurrence of specific cancer sites in the two sexes. The inverse relationship existed for all specific sites investigated (except breast) although a level of statistical significance was reached only for prostate carcinoma. Analyses after exclusion of cases diagnosed during the first two years of follow-up still yielded an inverse relationship. Life table analysis indicated that competing risks during the period of follow-up did not account for the existence of an inverse relationship. It is concluded that a weak inverse relationship does exist between serum cholesterol for many but not all cancer sites. This relationship is not due to confounding by other known cancer risk factors, competing risks or persons entering the study with undiagnosed cancer. Not enough information is available at the present time to determine whether this relationship is causal and further research is suggested. ^