Network externalities across financial institutions

We propose and estimate a financial distress model that explicitly accounts for the interactions or spill-over effects between financial institutions, through the use of a spatial continuity matrix that is build from financial network data of inter bank transactions. Such setup of the financial distress model allows for the empirical validation of the importance of network externalities in determining financial distress, in addition to institution specific and macroeconomic covariates. The relevance of such specification is that it incorporates simultaneously micro-prudential factors (Basel 2) as well as macro-prudential and systemic factors (Basel 3) as determinants of financial distress. Results indicate network externalities are an important determinant of financial health of a financial institutions. The parameter that measures the effect of network externalities is both economically and statistical significant and its inclusion as a risk factor reduces the importance of the firm specific variables such as the size or degree of leverage of the financial institution. In addition we analyze the policy implications of the network factor model for capital requirements and deposit insurance pricing.

The case for property in the long run: a cointegration test

The benefits of property in the mixed asset portfolio has been the subject of a number of studies both in the UK and around the world. The traditional way of investigating this issue is to use MPT with the results suggesting that Property should play a significant role in the mixed asset portfolio. These results are not without criticism and generally revolve around quality and quantity of the property data series. To overcome these deficiencies this paper uses cointegration methodology which examines the longer term time series behaviour of various asset markets using a very long run desmoothed data series. Using a number of different cointegration tests, both pair-wise and multivariate, the results show, in unambiguous terms, that there is no contemporous cointegration between the major asset classes Property, Equities and Bonds. The implications of which are that Property does indeed have a risk reducing place to play in the long-run strategic mixed-asset portfolio. A result of particular relevance to institutions such as pension funds and life insurance companies who would wish to hold investments for the long-term.

Trading death: the implications of annuity replication for the annuity puzzle, arbitrage, speculation and portfolios

Annuities are perceived as being illiquid financial instruments, and this has limited their attractiveness to consumers and their inclusion in financial models. However, short positions in annuities can be replicated using life insurance and debt, permitting long positions in annuities to be offset, or short annuity positions to be created. The implications of this result for the annuity puzzle, arbitrage between the annuity and life insurance markets, and speculation on expected longevity are investigated. It is argued that annuity replication could help reduce the annuity puzzle, improve the price efficiency of annuity markets and promote the inclusion of annuities in household portfolios.

Insuring cleaner oceans: the economics of oil pollution prevention

The current system of controlling oil spills involves a complex relationship of international, federal and state law, which has not proven to be very effective. The multiple layers of regulation often leave shipowners unsure of the laws facing them. Furthemore, nations have had difficulty enforcing these legal requirements. This thesis deals with the role marine insurance can play within the existing system of legislation to provide a strong preventative influence that is simple and cost-effective to enforce. In principle, insurance has two ways of enforcing higher safety standards and limiting the risk of an accident occurring. The first is through the use of insurance premiums that are based on the level of care taken by the insured. This means that a person engaging in riskier behavior faces a higher insurance premium, because their actions increase the probability of an accident occurring. The second method, available to the insurer, is collectively known as cancellation provisions or underwriting clauses. These are clauses written into an insurance contract that invalidates the agreement when certain conditions are not met by the insured The problem has been that obtaining information about the behavior of an insured party requires monitoring and that incurs a cost to the insurer. The application of these principles proves to be a more complicated matter. The modern marine insurance industry is a complicated system of multiple contracts, through different insurers, that covers the many facets of oil transportation. Their business practices have resulted in policy packages that cross the neat bounds of individual, specific insurance coverage. This paper shows that insurance can improve safety standards in three general areas -crew training, hull and equipment construction and maintenance, and routing schemes and exclusionary zones. With crew, hull and equipment, underwriting clauses can be used to ensure that minimum standards are met by the insured. Premiums can then be structured to reflect the additional care taken by the insured above and beyond these minimum standards. Routing schemes are traffic flow systems applied to congested waterways, such as the entrance to New York harbor. Using natural obstacles or manmade dividers, ships are separated into two lanes of opposing traffic, similar to a road. Exclusionary zones are marine areas designated off limits to tanker traffic either because of a sensitive ecosystem or because local knowledge is required of the region to ensure safe navigation. Underwriting clauses can be used to nullify an insurance contract when a tanker is not in compliance with established exclusionary zones or routing schemes.

Fundamentação técnica e atuarial dos seguros de vida : um estudo comparativo entre o seguro de vida individual e o seguro de vida em grupo no Brasil

A indústria de seguros é uma atividade econômica relativamente jovem, possuindo raízes na revolução industrial. O desenvolvimento dessa indústria ocorreu de forma bastante intensa durante o século passado, quando a atividade passou a ser inserida na área de gestão de riscos. As Companhias de Seguros que trabalham nesse ambiente de negócio fundamentam todo o processo de precificação dos seus produtos em rígidas bases técnicas e atuariais. O presente trabalho dedica-se ao estudo dessas questões, abordando especificamente os seguros de vida, com ênfase à cobertura de morte. A pesquisa tem por objetivo comparar duas modalidades distintas de seguros que são ofertadas ao mercado: o seguro de vida individual e o seguro de vida em grupo. Embora ofereçam aos consumidores coberturas bastante similares, ambas as modalidades devem obedecer a requisitos e princípios técnicos diferenciados por parte das instituições que fazem a sua gestão.

Garantias financeiras em seguros vida e previdência: um modelo de avaliação

Recentemente, o mercado brasileiro regulamentou produtos de seguro de vida e previdência com garantia de uma remuneração mínima, a ser corrigida por um índice de preços e acrescida da participação em retorno de fundo específico de investimento. Esta tese vem dar sua contribuição no âmbito da crescente demanda pela avaliação econômico financeira destes produtos. Esta demanda é motivada não apenas pelas exigências regulatórias internacionais mas também pelas necessidades de real percepção dos riscos fincnaceiros envolvidos. Assim, é aqui proposto um modelo de precificação cuja finalidade é permitir a calibragem, dentro de uma condição definida de equilíbrio, dos parâmetros de garantias de um contrato - taxa mínima e participação. Estes são assim determinados em função não só da maturidade estabelecida, como também das expectativas relativas às variáveis de mercado, como taxas de juros, volatilidade dos ativos e índice de preços. O modelo proposto mostrou comportamento similar ao constatado num conjunto referencial de modelos. Por esta razão, sugere-se que ele é adequado, dentro das limitações colocadas, ao processo de precificação dos produtos em questão.

Concentração nos mercados brasileiros de seguros, previdência e capitalização

Os mercados de seguros regulados pela SUSEP apresentaram queda no número de empresas e elevação no índice de concentração de Herfindahl Hirschman. O que parece um quadro preocupante no âmbito da regulação é atenuado pela diminuição do índice de Gini e outros testes de poder de mercado que não indicam que esta queda no número de empresas tenha tido impacto sobre o nível de preços. Assim como esperado a partir da evidência internacional, a concentração é maior nos mercados de seguros de vida do que nos não-vida. Este fato tem reflexo nos preços, que apresentam patamares mais altos nos seguros de vida, indicando diferença mais substancial entre mercados.

An analysis of maritime transport and its costs for the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

There are significant, fundamental changes taking place in global air and sea surface temperatures and sea levels. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that many of the warmest years on the instrumental record of global surface temperatures have occurred within the last twelve years, i.e. 1995-2006 (IPCC, 2007). The Caribbean tourism product is particularly vulnerable to climate change. On the demand side, mitigation measures in other countries – for example, measures to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels – could have implications for airfares and cruise prices and, therefore, for the demand for travel, particularly to long-haul destinations such as the Caribbean (Clayton, 2009). On the supply side, sea level rise will cause beaches to disappear and damage coastal resorts. Changes in the frequency and severity of hurricanes are likely to magnify that damage. Other indirect impacts on the tourism product include rising insurance premiums and competition for water resources (Cashman, Cumberbatch, & Moore, 2012). The present report has used information on historic and future Caribbean climate data to calculate that the Caribbean tourism climatic index (TCI) ranges from −20 (impossible) to +100 (ideal). In addition to projections for the Caribbean, the report has produced TCI projections for the New York City area (specifically, Central Park), which have been used as comparators for Caribbean country projections. The conditions in the source market provide a benchmark against which visitors may judge their experience in the tourism destination. The historical and forecasted TCIs for the Caribbean under both the A2 and B2 climate scenarios of the IPCC suggest that climatic conditions in the Caribbean are expected to deteriorate, and are likely to become less conducive to tourism. More specifically, the greatest decline in the TCI is likely to occur during the northern hemisphere summer months from May to September. At the same time, the scenario analysis indicates that home conditions during the traditional tourist season (December – April) are likely to improve, which could make it more attractive for visitors from these markets to consider ‘staycations’ as an alternative to overseas trips.

CC98-410 Money 2000+ News (Introductory Issue)

Money 2000+ is a program designed to increase the financial well being of Nebraskans through increased savings and reduced household debt. This Campaign Circular, Money 2000+ News is an introductory publication to this program which talks about setting goals for saving money, downsizing your debt with ways to save with credit cards, passing up things that waste money, record keeping, looking for ways to save money, avoiding late fees, and saving and credit tips.

Perceptions of Procedural and Distributive Justice in the September 11th Victim Compensation Fund

The September l1th Victim Compensation Fund (the Fund) was created in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Much has been written about the Fund, both pro and con, in both popular media and scholarly literature. Perhaps the most widely used term in referring to the Fund is "unprecedented." The Fund is intriguing for many reasons, particularly for its public policy implications and its impact on the claimants themselves. The federal government has never before provided compensation to victims of terrorism through a special master who had virtually unlimited discretion in determining awards. Consequently, this formal allocation of money by a representative of the federal government to its citizens has provided an opportunity to test theories of procedural and distributive justice in a novel context. This article tests these theories by analyzing the results of a study of the Fund's claimants. Part I provides general background, summarizes existing commentary on the Fund, and discusses prior research on social justice that is relevant to the 9/11 claimants' experiences with the Fund. Part II of this article describes the methodology behind the study, in which seventy-one individuals who filed claims with the Fund completed surveys about their experiences with and perceptions of the Fund. Part III discusses the survey results. We found that participants were reasonably satisfied with the procedural aspects of the Fund, such as representatives' impartiality and respectful treatment. Participants were less satisfied, however, with the distributive aspects of the Fund, such as the unequal distribution of compensation and the reduction in compensation if claimants received compensation from other sources (e.g., life insurance). Part IV of this article addresses the implications of the study results for public policy and for theories of social justice.

EC77-865 Have It Your Way By Making A Will

Making a will is not the sad and gloomy picture painted by some people. Quite the contrary! A person who makes a will is creating his or her own blueprint for the future. A will, like life insurance, social security, or retirement plans, provides security and peace of mind. The person who has a will made can rest assured that property and loved ones will be taken care of precisely in the manner he or she desires. This publication presents basic information about wills, one of the most important documents a person can make or possess. This information can be useful both to those who have already made a will and those who have not.

The Permanent Income Hypothesis: A Test on Czech Privatisation

Since the late eighties, economists have been regarding the transition from command to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe with intense interest. In addition to studying the transition per se, they have begun using the region as a testing ground on which to investigate the validity of certain classic economic propositions. In his research, comprising three articles written in English and totalling 40 pages, Mr. Hanousek uses the so-called "Czech national experiment" (voucher privatisation scheme) to test the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). He took as his inspiration Kreinin's recommendation: "Since data concerning the behaviour of windfall income recipients is relatively scanty, and since such data can constitute an important test of the permanent income hypothesis, it is of interest to bring to bear on the hypothesis whatever information is available". Mr. Hanousek argues that, since the transfer of property to Czech citizens from 1992 to 1994 through the voucher scheme was not anticipated, it can be regarded as windfall income. The average size of the windfall was more than three month's salary and over 60 percent of the Czech population received this unexpected income. Furthermore, there are other reasons for conducting such an analysis in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the privatisation process took place quickly. Secondly, both the economy and consumer behaviour have been very stable. Thirdly, out of a total population of 10 million Czech citizens, an astonishing 6 million, that is, virtually every household, participated in the scheme. Thus Czech voucher privatisation provides a sample for testing the PIH almost equivalent to a full population, thus avoiding problems with the distribution of windfalls. Compare this, for instance with the fact that only 4% of the Israeli urban population received personal restitution from Germany, while the number of veterans who received the National Service Life Insurance Dividends amounted to less than 9% of the US population and were concentrated in certain age groups. But to begin with, Mr. Hanousek considers the question of whether the public percieves the transfer from the state to individual as an increase in net wealth. It can be argued that the state is only divesting itself of assets that would otherwise provide a future source of transfers. According to this argument, assigning these assets to individuals creates an offsetting change in the present value of potential future transfers so that individuals are no better off after the transfer. Mr. Hanousek disagrees with this approach. He points out that a change in the ownership of inefficient state-owned enterprises should lead to higher efficiency, which alone increases the value of enterprises and creates a windfall increase in citizens' portfolios. More importantly, the state and individuals had very different preferences during the transition. Despite government propaganda, it is doubtful that citizens of former communist countries viewed government-owned enterprises as being operated in the citizens' best interest. Moreover, it is unlikely that the public fully comprehended the sophisticated links between the state budget, state-owned enterprises, and transfers to individuals. Finally, the transfers were not equal across the population. Mr. Hanousek conducted a survey on 1263 individuals, dividing them into four monthly earnings categories. After determining whether the respondent had participated in the voucher process, he asked those who had how much of what they received from voucher privatisation had been (a) spent on goods and services, (b) invested elsewhere, (c) transferred to newly emerging pension funds, (d) given to a family member, and (e) retained in their original form as an investment. Both the mean and the variance of the windfall rise with income. He obtained similar results with respect to education, where the mean (median) windfall for those with a basic school education was 13,600 Czech Crowns (CZK), a figure that increased to 15,000 CZK for those with a high school education without exams, 19,900 CZK for high school graduates with exams, and 24,600 CZK for university graduates. Mr. Hanousek concludes that it can be argued that higher income (and better educated) groups allocated their vouchers or timed the disposition of their shares better. He turns next to an analysis of how respondents reported using their windfalls. The key result is that only a relatively small number of individuals reported spending on goods. Overall, the results provide strong support for the permanent income hypothesis, the only apparent deviation being the fact that both men and women aged 26 to 35 apparently consume more than they should if the windfall were annuitised. This finding is still fully consistent with the PIH, however, if this group is at a stage in their life-cycle where, without the windfall, they would be borrowing to finance consumption associated with family formation etc. Indeed, the PIH predicts that individuals who would otherwise borrow to finance consumption would consume the windfall up to the level equal to the annuitised fraction of the increase in lifetime income plus the full amount of the previously planned borrowing for consumption. Greater consumption would then be financed, not from investing the windfall, but from avoidance of future repayment obligations for debts that would have been incurred without the windfall.

The Risk Management of Minimum Return Guarantees

Contracts paying a guaranteed minimum rate of return and a fraction of a positive excess rate, which is specified relative to a benchmark portfolio, are closely related to unit-linked life-insurance products and can be considered as alternatives to direct investment in the underlying benchmark. They contain an embedded power option, and the key issue is the tractable and realistic hedging of this option, in order to rigorously justify valuation by arbitrage arguments and prevent the guarantees from becoming uncontrollable liabilities to the issuer. We show how to determine the contract parameters conservatively and implement robust risk-management strategies.

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 370 - Korrespondenzen u.a. mit Ludwig Neundörfer und Oskar Negt (p. V 128, 1-177)

2 Briefe zwischen der Buchhandlung Peter Naacher und Max Horkheimer, 1966-1968; 1 Brief von E. Nabulon an Max Horkheimer, 1971; 13 Briefe und Beilage zwischen dem Dozenten Georg Nádor und Max Horkheimer, 1964-1967; 4 Briefe zwischen Cornelia Nass und Max Horkheimer sowie der Beilage: Vortrag von Val. Giscard d'Estaing über "die neue Gesellschaft" Brüssel 1970, 1970-1972; 6 Briefe zwischen Else Nassauer und Max Horkheimer, 1967-1973; 3 Briefe zwischen S.Andhil Fineberg und Max Horkheimer, 1967-1969; 1 Brief von Dr. med. Horst Naujoks an Max Horkheimer, 1963; 3 Briefe von Max Horkheimer an die Zeitschrift Nebelspalter, 1964-1969; 7 Briefe zwischen Max Horkheimer und Carl Nedelmann, 1964; 2 Briefe und Beilage zwischen Dr. Renate Neef-Cramer und Max Horkheimer, 1972; 3 Briefe zwischen Walter Neef und Max Horkheimer, 1965; 1 Brief an Dr. Oskar Negt von Max Horkheimer, 1964; 9 Briefe zwischen Dr. Günther Nenning und Max Horkheimer, 1962-1972; 4 Briefe zwischen der Neuen Deutschen Biographie und Max Horkheimer, 1969-1970; 4 Briefe und Beilage zwischen der Wochenschrift Neue Politik und Max Horkheimer, 1971; 6 Briefe zwischen Joachim Günther und Max Horkheimer, 1969-1970; 10 Briefe zwischen der Neuen Rundschau Rudolf Hartung und Max Horkheimer, 1964-1968; 1 Brief an Heinz Friedrich von Max Horkheimer, 1969; 9 Briefe zwischen Dr. Günther Nenning und Max Horkheimer, 1969-1972; 4 Briefe zwischen dem Rektor Günther Neuhardt und Max Horkheimer, 1970; 7 Briefe zwischen Rexa Neumeister und Max Horkheimer, 1967; 28 Briefe und Beilage zwischen dem Professor Ludwig Neundörfer und Max Horkheimer, 1955-1971; 1 Brief an den Professor John J. Neunaier von Max Horkheimer, 1965; 2 Briefe zwischen der Newton Compton Editori und Max Horkheimer, 1970; 3 Briefe zwischen der New York Times und Max Horkheimer, 1959-1960; 4 Briefe und Beilage zwischen Stephen Ney und Max Horkheimer, 1967; 4 Briefe und Beilage zwischen dem Student Claus Niederberger und Max Horkheimer, 1973; 1 Brief an Dr. Friedrich Niewöhner von Max Horkheimer, 1973; 4 Briefe zwischen dem Professor August Nietschke und Max Horkheimer, 1965; 1 Dankesbrief von N.N. an Maidon Horkheimer, 1963; 1 Brief [Hinweis auf eine Krebstherapie] von N.N. an Max Horkheimer; 1 Brief [gegen den Kommunismus] von N.N. an Max Horkheimer, 1955; 1 Brief [Ansichtskarte, Unterzeichnet mit D.C.] von N.N. an Max Horkheimer, 1953; 1 Telegramm [Mitteilung über Schiffverbindung] von N.N. an Max Horkheimer, 1949; 3 Briefe und Beilage zwischen dem Northern Life Insurance Co. Seattle, Wash. und Max Horkheimer, 1951-1953; 4 Briefe und Beilage zwischen den Nürnberger Nachrichten und Max Horkheimer sowie einem Interview mit Max Horkheimer, 1973; 1 Brief von der Nymphenburger Verlagshandlung an Max Horkheimer, 1968;