Impacts of pollution and climate change on ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in the UK: analysis of uncertainties in two empirical niche models

A significant challenge in the prediction of climate change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity is quantifying the sources of uncertainty that emerge within and between different models. Statistical species niche models have grown in popularity, yet no single best technique has been identified reflecting differing performance in different situations. Our aim was to quantify uncertainties associated with the application of 2 complimentary modelling techniques. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were used to model the realised niche of ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in British peatlands. These models were then used to predict changes in Sphagnum cover between 2020 and 2050 based on projections of climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. Over 90% of the variation in the GLMM predictions was due to niche model parameter uncertainty, dropping to 14% for the GAMM. After having covaried out other factors, average variation in predicted values of Sphagnum cover across UK peatlands was the next largest source of variation (8% for the GLMM and 86% for the GAMM). The better performance of the GAMM needs to be weighed against its tendency to overfit the training data. While our niche models are only a first approximation, we used them to undertake a preliminary evaluation of the relative importance of climate change and nitrogen and sulphur deposition and the geographic locations of the largest expected changes in Sphagnum cover. Predicted changes in cover were all small (generally <1% in an average 4 m2 unit area) but also highly uncertain. Peatlands expected to be most affected by climate change in combination with atmospheric pollution were Dartmoor, Brecon Beacons and the western Lake District.

Ensemble forecasts of a flood-producing storm: comparison of the influence of model-state perturbations and parameter modifications

High-resolution ensemble simulations (Δx = 1 km) are performed with the Met Office Unified Model for the Boscastle (Cornwall, UK) flash-flooding event of 16 August 2004. Forecast uncertainties arising from imperfections in the forecast model are analysed by comparing the simulation results produced by two types of perturbation strategy. Motivated by the meteorology of the event, one type of perturbation alters relevant physics choices or parameter settings in the model's parametrization schemes. The other type of perturbation is designed to account for representativity error in the boundary-layer parametrization. It makes direct changes to the model state and provides a lower bound against which to judge the spread produced by other uncertainties. The Boscastle has genuine skill at scales of approximately 60 km and an ensemble spread which can be estimated to within ∼ 10% with only eight members. Differences between the model-state perturbation and physics modification strategies are discussed, the former being more important for triggering and the latter for subsequent cell development, including the average internal structure of convective cells. Despite such differences, the spread in rainfall evaluated at skilful scales is shown to be only weakly sensitive to the perturbation strategy. This suggests that relatively simple strategies for treating model uncertainty may be sufficient for practical, convective-scale ensemble forecasting.

Simulated climate change impact on summer dissolved organic carbon release from peat and surface vegetation: implications for drinking water treatment

Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g−1) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g−1) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers.

Fine-scale temporal characterization of trends in soil water dissolved organic carbon and potential drivers

Long-term monitoring of surface water quality has shown increasing concentrations of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) across a large part of the Northern Hemisphere. Several drivers have been implicated including climate change, land management change, nitrogen and sulphur deposition and CO2 enrichment. Analysis of stream water data, supported by evidence from laboratory studies, indicates that an effect of declining sulphur deposition on catchment soil chemistry is likely to be the primary mechanism, but there are relatively few long term soil water chemistry records in the UK with which to investigate this, and other, hypotheses directly. In this paper, we assess temporal relationships between soil solution chemistry and parameters that have been argued to regulate DOC production and, using a unique set of co-located measurements of weather and bulk deposition and soil solution chemistry provided by the UK Environmental Change Network and the Intensive Forest Monitoring Level II Network . We used statistical non-linear trend analysis to investigate these relationships at 5 forested and 4 non-forested sites from 1993 to 2011. Most trends in soil solution DOC concentration were found to be non-linear. Significant increases in DOC occurred mostly prior to 2005. The magnitude and sign of the trends was associated qualitatively with changes in acid deposition, the presence/absence of a forest canopy, soil depth and soil properties. The strongest increases in DOC were seen in acidic forest soils and were most clearly linked to declining anthropogenic acid deposition, while DOC trends at some sites with westerly locations appeared to have been influenced by shorter-term hydrological variation. The results indicate that widespread DOC increases in surface waters observed elsewhere, are most likely dominated by enhanced mobilization of DOC in surficial organic horizons, rather than changes in the soil water chemistry of deeper horizons. While trends in DOC concentrations in surface horizons have flattened out in recent years, further increases may be expected as soil chemistry continues to adjust to declining inputs of acidity.

Isotermas de sorção e cinética de secagem de sementes de pomelo

The drying of grapefruit seeds, by-products from grapefruit processing, was studied at 40, 50, 60 and 70°C and at three air velocities, 0.6, 1.0 and 1.4 m s-1. Sorption isotherms of grapefruit seeds were obtained at each temperature by the static method using saturated salt solutions. The Henderson model adequately described the sorption isotherms, over the entire temperature range. Drying rates indicated that the drying of grapefruit seeds took place under the falling rate period. Effective moisture diffusivity in grapefruit seeds ranged from 4.36 × 10-10 to 6.82 × 10-10 m2 s-1. The temperature dependence of the effective diffusivity followed an Arrhenius relationship, and the activation energies were 12.23, 11.29 and 11.79 kJ mol-1 for dried grapefruit seeds under air velocities of 0.6, 1.0 and 1.4 m s-1, respectively. Three thin-layer models were used to predict the drying curves, Page, Lewis, and Henderson-Pabis model. The Page model presented the best fit for all drying air temperatures and velocities studied.

Polimorfismo dos genes ABO, Lewis e Secretor correlacionados com o câncer de mama

Pós-graduação em Biociências e Biotecnologia Aplicadas à Farmácia - FCFAR

Potencial acaricida do óleo de andiroba Carapa guianensis Aubl. sobre fêmeas adultas ingurgitadas de Anocentor nitens Neumann, 1897 e Rhipicephalus sanguineus Latreille, 1806

Avaliou-se o potencial acaricida in vitro do óleo da semente da andiroba (Carapa guianensis) sobre fêmeas ingurgitadas de Anocentor nitens (n=210) e Rhipicephalus sanguineus (n=140), coletadas manualmente, respectivamente, de equinos e de cães naturalmente infestados. Para o teste de imersão, empregaram-se cinco diluições do óleo de andiroba, 100%, 50%, 30%, 25% e 10%, em água destilada, utilizando-se tween 80 como dispersante. No teste com A. nitens, foram usadas três repetições para cada diluição, utilizando-se 10 fêmeas ingurgitadas para cada tratamento. No teste com R. sanguineus, usaram-se duas repetições, e formaram-se, ainda, dois grupos-controle para cada espécie de ixodídeo, um com água destilada e outro com tween 80 mais água destilada. Após os testes, as fêmeas foram mantidas em laboratório sob temperatura ambiente. Observou-se mortalidade das fêmeas ingurgitadas e redução de postura, neste caso, com ovos inférteis, demonstrando eficácia de 100% nas duas espécies em todas as diluições testadas. Os dados obtidos evidenciaram a potencialidade do uso do extrato de andiroba contra A. nitens e R. sanguineus.