What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?

During the 20th century, solar activity increased in magnitude to a so-called grand maximum. It is probable that this high level of solar activity is at or near its end. It is of great interest whether any future reduction in solar activity could have a significant impact on climate that could partially offset the projected anthropogenic warming. Observations and reconstructions of solar activity over the last 9000 years are used as a constraint on possible future variations to produce probability distributions of total solar irradiance over the next 100 years. Using this information, with a simple climate model, we present results of the potential implications for future projections of climate on decadal to multidecadal timescales. Using one of the most recent reconstructions of historic total solar irradiance, the likely reduction in the warming by 2100 is found to be between 0.06 and 0.1 K, a very small fraction of the projected anthropogenic warming. However, if past total solar irradiance variations are larger and climate models substantially underestimate the response to solar variations, then there is a potential for a reduction in solar activity to mitigate a small proportion of the future warming, a scenario we cannot totally rule out. While the Sun is not expected to provide substantial delays in the time to reach critical temperature thresholds, any small delays it might provide are likely to be greater for lower anthropogenic emissions scenarios than for higher-emissions scenarios.

The economic development of Latin America in the twentieth century

Includes bibliography

Vicentina Aranha de sanatório a parque: histórias e mudanças

This assignment intents to analyze the recover and the research of the cultural legacy identity of Vicentina Aranha Sanatorium to the inhabitants of the city of São José dos Campos-SP. That initiative becomes present through the importancy of the sanatorium to the public health of Vale do Paraíba in the decades between 30 and 70, of the 20th century. Nowadays this place refuges a park, presenting a reexamination of its space, with the possibility of the leisure practice, entertaining and tourism. The Vicentina Aranha Sanatorium Park presents itself conserving a landscape that is able of being inserted in a continuum past-present resignifying ways of appropriation and use. The word patrimony has many meanings and it‟s commonly associated to the set of goods that someone, the society or an entity owns. Transporting in a determinate territory, the patrimony starts to be a set of goods that are in its limits of administrative competency. (BARRETO, 2000). More than this, the cultural-historical patrimony guard a relation of belonging between it and the entity that has it. The Vicentina Aranha Sanatorium was inaugurated in 1924, with the project of the architect, Ramos de Azevedo, constituting an architectural ensemble placed under governmental trust as a historical and cultural patrimony of the state in 2001. It has a grove with centenary vegetal species like: MOGNO, PEROBA ROSA, JEQUITIBÁ and JACARANDA, constituting also a natural patrimony important for the city. There are projects like “Leitura no Bosque” and it‟s visited by the local population. Today the city seeks a new identity for that place transforming it in the center of industrial and technologic study

Agricultural Genetics and Plant Breeding in Early Twentieth-Century Italy

This thesis is about plant breeding in Early 20th-Century Italy. The stories of the two most prominent Italian plant-breeders of the time, Nazareno Strampelli and Francesco Todaro, are used to explore a fragment of the often-neglected history of Italian agricultural research. While Italy was not at the forefront of agricultural innovation, research programs aimed at varietal innovation did emerge in the country, along with an early diffusion of Mendelism. Using philosophical as well as historical analysis, plant breeding is analysed throughout this thesis as a process: a sequence of steps that lays on practical skills and theoretical assumptions, acting on various elements of production. Systematic plant-breeding programs in Italy started from small individual efforts, attracting more and more resources until they became a crucial part of the fascist regime's infamous agricultural policy. Hybrid varieties developed in the early 20th century survived World War II and are now ancestors of the varieties that are still cultivated today. Despite this relevance, the history of Italian wheat hybrids is today largely forgotten: this thesis is an effort to re-evaluate a part of it. The research did allow previously unknown or neglected facts to emerge, giving a new perspective on the infamous alliance between plant-breeding programs and the fascist regime. This thesis undertakes an analysis of Italian plant-breeding programs as processes. Those processes had a practical as well as a theoretical side, and involved various elements of production. Although a complete history of Italian plant breeding still remains to be written, the Italian case can now be considered along with the other case-studies that other scholars have developed in the history of plant breeding. The hope is that this historical and philosophical analysis will contribute to the on-going effort to understand the history of plants.

The role of proactive coping strategies and perceived health status for Social well-being and life-project in old age.

The latter part of the 20th century was a period characterized by a fundamental demographic transition of western society. This substantial and structural demographic change proposes several challenges to contemporary society and fosters the emergence of new issues and challenges. Among these, none is more crucial than the comprehension of the mechanisms and the processes that lead people to positive aging. Rowe and Kahn’s model of successful aging highlights the interplay between social engagement with life, health, and functioning for a positive aging experience. Other systemic models of successful aging (Kahana et al., 1996; 2003; Stevernik et al., 2006) emphasize the role of internal and external resources for attaining positive aging. Among these, the proactive coping strategies are indicated as important active strategies for avoiding the depletion of resources, counterbalancing the declines and maintaining social and civic involvement. The study has analyzed the role of proactive coping strategies for two facets of positive aging, the experience of a high social well-being and the presence of personal projects in fundamental life domains. As expected, the proactive coping strategies, referred to as the active management of the environment, the accumulation of resources and the actualization of human potentials are confirmed as positive predictors of high level of social well-being and of many personal projects focused on family, culture, leisure time, civic and social participation. Perceived health status give a significant contribution only to the possession of many personal projects. Gender and level of school education give also a significant contribution to these two dimensions of positive aging, highlighting how positive aging is rooted not only in the possession of personal resources, but also in historical models of education and in positive longitudinal chains related to early development.

Aerological observations in the Tropics in the Early Twentieth Century

In the first decades of the 20th century, aerological observations were for the first time performed in tropical regions. One of the most prominent endeavours in this respect was ARTHUR BERSON’s aerological expedition to East Africa. Although the main target was the East African monsoon circulation, the expedition provided also other insights that profoundly changed meteorology and climatology. BERSON observed that the tropical tropopause was much higher and colder than that over midlatitudes. Moreover, westerly winds were observed in the lower stratosphere, apparently contradicting the high-altitude equatorial easterly winds that were known since the Krakatoa eruption (‘‘Krakatoa easterlies’’). The puzzle was only resolved five decades later with the discovery of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). In this paper we briefly summarize the expedition of BERSON and review the results in a historical context and in the light of the current research. In the second part of the paper we re-visit BERSON’s early aerological observations, which we have digitized. We compare the observed wind profiles with corresponding profiles extracted from the ‘‘Twentieth Century Reanalysis’’, which provides global three-dimensional weather information back to 1871 based on an assimilation of sea-level and surface pressure data. The comparison shows a good agreement at the coast but less good agreement further inland, at the shore of Lake Victoria, where the circulation is more complex. These results demonstrate that BERSON’s observations are still valuable today as input to current reanalysis systems or for their validation.

A century of bovine besnoitiosis: an unknown disease re-emerging in Europe.

Bovine besnoitiosis, which is caused by the cyst-forming apicomplexan parasite Besnoitia besnoiti, is a chronic and debilitating vector-borne disease characterized by both cutaneous and systemic manifestations. In Europe, this parasitic disease appeared in a few restricted areas in France and Portugal since the first recorded cases in the beginning of the 20th century. However, at present, the disease is considered to be re-emerging by the European Food Safety Authority due to an increased number of cases and the geographic expansion of besnoitiosis into cattle herds in several European countries. In this review, we will provide an update of the epidemiology and impact of B. besnoiti infection. Strategies to control this parasitic disease will also be discussed.

Sea surface temperature oscillations in southern Okinawa Trough during last 2700 years from ODP Hole 195-1202B

Most of the temperature reconstructions for the past two millennia are based on proxy data from various sites on land. Here we present a bidecadal resolution record of sea surface temperature (SST) in Southern Okinawa Trough for the past ca. 2700 years by analyzing tetraether lipids of planktonic archaea in the ODP Hole 1202B, a site under the strong influence of Kuroshio Current and East Asian monsoon. The reconstructed SST anomalies generally coincided with previously reported late Holocene climate events, including the Roman Warm Period, Sui-Tang dynasty Warm Period, Medieval Warm Period, Current Warm Period, Dark Age Cold Period and Little Ice Age. However, the Medieval Warm Period usually thought to be a historical analogue for the Current Warm Period has a mean SST of 0.6-0.8°C lower than that of the Roman Warm Period and Sui-Tang dynasty Warm Period. Despite an increase since 1850 AD, the mean SST in the 20th century is still within the range of natural variability during the past 2700 years. A close correlation of SST in Southern Okinawa Trough with air temperature in East China, intensity of East Asian monsoon and the El-Niño Southern Oscillation index has been attributed to the fluctuations in solar output and oceanic-atmospheric circulation.

Background and approach to a definition of smart buildings

There is no doubt that there is no possibility of finding a single reference about domotics in the first half of the 20th century. The best known authors and those who have documented this discipline, set its origin in the 1970’s, when the x-10 technology began to be used, but it was not until 1988 when Larousse Encyclopedia decided to include the definition of "Smart Building". Furthermore, even nowadays, there is not a single definition widely accepted, and for that reason, many other expressions, namely "Intelligent Buildings" "Domotics" "Digital Home" or "Home Automation" have appeared to describe the automated buildings and homes. The lack of a clear definition for "Smart Buildings" causes difficulty not only in the development of a common international framework to develop research in this field, but it also causes insecurity in the potential user of these buildings. That is to say, the user does not know what is offered by this kind of buildings, hindering the dissemination of the culture of building automation in society. Thus, the main purpose of this paper is to propose a definition of the expression “Smart Buildings” that satisfactorily describes the meaning of this discipline. To achieve this aim, a thorough review of the origin of the term itself and the historical background before the emergence of the phenomenon of domotics was conducted, followed by a critical discussion of existing definitions of the term "Smart Buildings" and other similar terms. The extent of each definition has been analyzed, inaccuracies have been discarded and commonalities have been compared. Throughout the discussion, definitions that bring the term "Smart Buildings" near to disciplines such as computer science, robotics and also telecommunications have been found. However, there are also many other definitions that emphasize in a more abstract way the role of these new buildings in the society and the future of mankind.

The Rasikajy civilization in northeast Madagascar: a pre-European Chinese community?

Archaeological excavations in northern Madagascar during the first half of the 20th century have revealed the presence of a former prosperous civilisation known as the Rasikajy civilisation. Little is known about the origin of this civilisation and how and when they first arrived in Madagascar. The most striking evidence for the Rasikajy civilisation comes from excavations at a necropolis in Vohemar located along the northeast coast, where more than 600 tombs containing spectacular objects were unearthed in the 1940s (Vernier & Millot 1971). The findings in the tombs included, amongst others, Chinese ceramics, silver and gold jewellery, iron weapons, glassware, bronze mirrors and chlorite-schist objects (ibid.). The latter objects were produced from chlorite schist mined at quarries in northern and eastern Madagascar and there is evidence that jewellery and iron objects were also produced by the Rasikajy from locally available raw material. Chlorite-schist objects have not only been found in coastal sites in Madagascar, but also in the Comores and eastern Africa suggesting an active engagement of the Rasikajy in western Indian Ocean trade. Our re-evaluation of published literature on archaeological sites in northern Madagascar indicates that the majority of Chinese ceramics found in the tombs at Vohemar dates from the 15th and first half of the 16th century with some dating back to the 14th century or earlier. Our comparative analysis of burial objects at Vohemar shows that locally produced chlorite-schist tripod vessels exhibit remarkable resemblances to ancient Chinese bronze ritual tripod vessels. The objects encountered in the tombs and their positions with respect to the body indicate that the Rasikajy practiced burial rites similar to those practised in the past in China. Our re-evaluation of the literature suggests that communities with Chinese roots were present in northeastern Madagascar prior to the arrival of the first Europeans in 1500 and participated in the Indian Ocean trade network. The demise of the Rasikajy civilisation seems to have occurred in the second half of the 16th century when production of chlorite-schist objects ceased. It is still unclear why this occurred.