Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological and land use studies along elevational gradients

Mountain regions and UNESCO Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs) encapsulate broad elevational ranges, cover large gradients of geological, topographical and climatic diversity, and thus host greater biodiversity than the surrounding lowlands. Much of the biological richness in MBRs results from the interaction of climatic contrasts and gravitational forces along elevational gradients. External forces such as atmospheric change and human land use interact with these gradients, and result in distinct landscape patchiness, ie mosaics of land cover types within and across elevational belts. The management of MBRs influences land use and land cover, which affects biodiversity and ecosystem processes, both of which provide goods and services to society. Due to their broad environmental and biological diversity, MBRs are ideally suited for global change research and will be increasingly important in illustrating biodiversity conservation. This article summarizes the ecologically relevant results of an international workshop on elevational gradients that aimed to achieve a synthesis of the major ecosystem and biodiversity conditions and drivers in an altitude context. The workshop developed a core research agenda for MBRs that prioritizes long-term research and changes in land use across a broad elevational range.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

State Planning Commission Annual Report, 2006

This is the annual report of the State Planning Commission. It tells about the program that the state has finished work on and is still working on. Plus plans for progress of the capital areas and surrounding buildings.

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 1, July 2008

Want to know what conditions to expect over the next stage of RAGBRAI? How hilly will it be, what towns and parks are between here and there, or what services are coming up in the next town?

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 2, July 2008

On today’s ride we continue riding across the Southern Iowa Drift Plain. This landform region covers over 40% of the state and comprises most of southern Iowa. Over the last several million years Iowa was subjected to at least seven glacial advances. The last of these older advances occurred approximately 500,000 years ago. Since then the landscape has been subjected to stream erosion and from12,500-24,000 years ago was mantled with a thick blanket of loess before being further eroded.

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 3, July 2008

Although during much of its geologic history Iowa was part of an interior sea, today what we see on the land surface has been heavily influenced by recent glaciation. Everything from Iowa soils, rivers, lakes, and hills has been influenced by glaciation. Most of Iowa’s bedrock is hidden beneath a thick mantle of deposits from the Cenozoic (i.e., new life) Era, spanning the last 65 million years. Geologists have divided the Cenozoic Era into two periods. These are the Tertiary (1.8-65 million years ago) and Quaternary Periods (recent to 1.8 million years ago). Most geologic records in Iowa are from the Quaternary period, and include glacial till and loess.

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 4, July 2008

Today’s ride departs Ames and heads towards Nevada. The Ames area is one of the classic areas to view elongated hummocks. These landforms are discontinous, lower relief curvilinear ridges which are east-west trending features. At one time geologists thought these hummocks formed at the base of the glacier due to glacial movement. It is now understood that these features may have developed within the glacier, in a large crevasse field that formed behind the ice (Bemis Moraine) margin as the ice stagnated and melted.

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 5, July 2008

Today, after you descend into the valley of the Iowa River north of Marengo, the route turns east on county road F15 and approaches the historic Amana Society. Settled in the late 1850s by German immigrants of the Community of True Inspiration, the new arrivals utilized the local timber and stone resources to construct their buildings. During these early years several stone quarries were opened in the hills along the north wall of the Iowa River valley near East, Middle, and West Amana. Riders will pass close to one of these old quarries 0.7 miles west of West Amana. The stone taken from these quarries is beautiful quartz-rich sandstone that is cemented by light brown to orange tinged iron oxide. This stone was used in the construction of many buildings in Amana.

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 6, July 2008

Today you will be biking over the Iowa and Cedar rivers, two major rivers hit by the Iowa flood of 2008. Three miles northeast of North Liberty you’ll cross the Iowa River. The river crested on June 15, 2008 at a record 31.53 ft., three feet higher than the previous record during the flood of 1993. The flooding river caused extensive damage to the University of Iowa (see cover photo of Iowa Memorial Union taken by Univ. Relations, Univ. of Iowa), Coralville, and numerous smaller towns. The flooding of the Cedar River, which RAGBRAI will cross at Sutliff, caused even greater damage. At Cedar Rapids, the 2008 flood crest of 31.12 ft. was over 11 ft. higher than the previous record set in 1851! This massive amount of water inundated downtown Cedar Rapids, Palo, and Columbus Junction and caused massive damage to buildings and infrastructure. When crossing the Cedar River at Sutliff, be sure to look to your right to see the remains of the Historic Sutliff Bridge, one of the many casualties of the Iowa flood of 2008.

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 7, July 2008

Iowa’s land was mapped long before it was declared a state. Since Lewis and Clark published their journey across the North American west in 1814, many different uses for maps have been found. Today there are maps of Iowa’s roads, waterways, landscape features, geology, and land use. One of the more recent mapping efforts has involved using a technology called LiDAR. This technology creates a topographic map of Iowa’s elevation that is accurate to within eight inches, ten times higher resolution than in previous elevation maps.

Geoecological drivers of cerrado heterogeneity and 13C natural abundance in oxisols after land-use change

The 13C natural abundance technique was applied to study C dynamics after land-use change from native savanna to Brachiaria, Pinus, and Eucalyptus in differently textured Cerrado Oxisols. But due to differences in the d13C signatures of subsoils under native savanna and under introduced species, C substitution could only be calculated based on results of cultivated soils nearby. It was estimated that after 20 years, Pinus C had replaced only 5 % of the native C in the 0-1.2 m layer, in which substitution was restricted to the top 0.4 m. Conversely, after 12 years, Brachiaria had replaced 21 % of Cerrado C to a depth of 1.2 m, where substitution decreased only slightly throughout the entire profile. The high d13C values in the subsoils of the cultivated sites led to the hypothesis that the natural vegetation there had been grassland rather than Cerrado sensu stricto, in spite of the comparable soil and site characteristics and the proximity of the studied sites. The hypothesis was tested using aerial photographs of 1964, which showed that the cultivated sites were located on a desiccated runoff head. The vegetation shift to a grass-dominated savanna formation might therefore have occurred in response to waterlogging and reduced soil aeration. A simple model was developed thereof, which ascribes the different Cerrado formations mainly to the plant-available water content and soil aeration. Soil fertility is considered of minor significance only, since at the studied native savanna sites tree density was independent of soil texture or nutrient status.

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 1, July 2010

Want to know what conditions to expect over the next stage of RAGBRAI? How hilly will it be, what towns and parks are between here and there, or what services are coming up in the next town?