Interactions of climate and land use documented in the varved sediments of Seebergsee in the Swiss Alps

This paper presents a multiproxy high-resolution study of the past 2600 years for Seebergsee, a small Swiss lake with varved sediments at the present tree-line ecotone. The laminae were identified as varves by a numerical analysis of diatom counts in the thin-sections. The hypothesis of two diatom blooms per year was corroborated by the 210Pb and 137Cs chronology. A period of intensive pasturing during the ‘Little Ice Age’ between ad 1346 and ad 1595 is suggested by coprophilous fungal spores, as well as by pollen indicators of grazing, by the diatom-inferred total phosphorus, by geochemistry and by documentary data. The subsequent re-oligotrophication of the lake took about 88 years, as determined by the timelag between the decline of coprophile fungal spores and the restoration of pre-eutrophic nutrient conditions. According to previous studies of latewood densities from the same region, cold summers around ad 1600 limited the pasturing at this altitude. This demonstrated the socio-economic impact of a single climatic event. However, the variance partitioning between the effects of land use and climate, which was applied for the whole core, revealed that climate independent of land use and time explained only 1.32% of the diatom data, while land use independent of climate and time explained 15.7%. Clearly land use in‘ uenced the lake, but land use was not always driven by climate. Other factors beside climate, such as politics or the introduction of fertilizers in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries also in‘ uenced the development of Alpine pasturing.

Sedimentological and biostratigraphical analyses of short sediment cores from Hagelseewli (2339 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Alps

Several short sediment cores of between 35 and 40 cm from Hagelseewli, a small, remote lake in the Swiss Alps at an elevation of 2339 m a.s.l. were correlated according to their organic matter content. The sediments are characterized by organic silts and show in their uppermost part a surprisingly high amount of organic matter (30-35%). Synchronous changes, occurring in pollen from snow-bed vegetation, the alga Pediastrum, chironomids, and grain-size composition, point to a climatic change interpreted as cooler or shorter summers that led to prolonged ice-cover on the lake. According to palynological results the sediments date back to at least the early 15th century A.D., with the cooling phase encompassing the period between late 16th and the mid-19th century thus coinciding with the Little Ice Age. Low concentrations of both chironomid head capsules and cladoceran remains in combination with results from fossil pigment analyses point to longer periods of bottom-water anoxia as a result of long-lasting ice-cover that prevented mixing of the water column. According to our results aquatic biota in Hagelseewli are mainly indirectly influenced by climate change. The duration of ice-cover on the lake controls the mixing of the water column as well as light-availability for phytoplankton blooms.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Human–climate interactions in the central Mediterranean region during the last millennia: The laminated record of Lake Butrint (Albania)

Lake Butrint (39°47 N, 20°1 E) is a ca. 21 m deep, coastal lagoon located in SW Albania where finely-laminated sediments have been continuously deposited during the last millennia. The multi-proxy analysis (sedimentology, high-resolution elemental geochemistry and pollen) of a 12 m long sediment core, supported by seven AMS radiocarbon dates and 137Cs dating, enable a precise reconstruction of the environmental change that occurred in the central Mediterranean region during the last ∼4.5 cal kyrs BP. Sediments consist of triplets of authigenic carbonates, organic matter and clayey laminae. Fluctuations in the thickness and/or presence of these different types of seasonal laminae indicate variations in water salinity, organic productivity and runoff in the lake's catchment, as a result of the complex interplay of tectonics, anthropogenic forcing and climate variability. The progradation of the Pavllo river delta, favoured by variable human activity from the nearby ancient city of Butrint, led to the progressive isolation of this hydrological system from the Ionian Sea. The system evolved from an open bay to a restricted lagoon, which is consistent with archaeological data. An abrupt increase in mass-wasting activity between 1515 and 1450 BC, likely caused by nearby seismic activity, led to the accumulation of 24 homogenites, up to 17 cm thick. They have been deposited during the onset of finely laminated sedimentation, which indicates restricted, anoxic bottom water conditions and higher salinity. Periods of maximum water salinity, biological productivity, and carbonate precipitation coincide with warmer intervals, such as the early Roman Warm Period (RWP) (500 BC–0 AD), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (800–1400 AD) and recent times (after 1800 AD). Conversely, lower salinity and more oxic conditions, with higher clastic input were recorded during 1400–500 BC, the Late Roman and the Early Medieval periods (0–800 AD) and during the Little Ice Age (1400–1800 AD). Hydrological fluctuations recorded in Butrint are in phase with most central and western Mediterranean records and correlate with NAO variability. In contrast, opposite hydrological patterns have been recorded in the Eastern Balkans and the Levant during the last millennium, emphasizing a complex spatial variability in the region. Phases of maximum settlement intensity in Butrint (Roman-Late Antique) coincide with warmer and/or stable climate periods (0–800 AD and MCA, respectively), indicating a long-term influence of climatic conditions on human activities. The Late Holocene sedimentary record of Lake Butrint demonstrates the complex interplay of climate variability, tectonics and human impact in the recent evolution of coastal Mediterranean regions.

Granulometry of two sediment cores from Maxwell Bay, South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica

The climate evolution of the South Shetland Islands during the last c. 2000 years is inferred from the multiproxy analyses of a long (928 cm) sediment core retrieved from Maxwell Bay off King George Island. The vertical sediment flux at the core location is controlled by summer melting processes that cause sediment-laden meltwater plumes to form. These leave a characteristic signature in the sediments of NE Maxwell Bay. We use this signature to distinguish summer and winter-dominated periods. During the Medieval Warm Period, sediments are generally finer which indicates summer-type conditions. In contrast, during the Little Ice Age (LIA) sediments are generally coarser and are indicative of winter-dominated conditions. Comparison with Northern and Southern Hemisphere, Antarctic, and global temperature reconstructions reveals that the mean grain-size curve from Maxwell Bay closely resembles the curve of the global temperature reconstruction. We show that the medieval warming occurred earlier in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere, which might indicate that the warming was driven by processes occurring in the south. The beginning of the LIA appears to be almost synchronous in both hemispheres. The warming after the LIA closely resembles the Northern Hemisphere record which might indicate this phase of cooling was driven by processes occurring in the north. Although the recent rapid regional warming is clearly visible, the Maxwell Bay record does not show the dominance of summer-type sediments until the 1970s. Continued warming in this area will likely affect the marine ecosystem through meltwater induced turbidity of the surface waters as well as an extension of the vegetation period due to the predicted decrease of sea ice in this area.

Stable oxygen isotope composition of benthic foraminifera from sediments of the Skagerrak, North Sea

Benthic foraminiferal tests of a sediment core from southwestern Skagerrak (northeastern North Sea, 420 m water depth) were investigated for their ratio of stable oxygen isotopes. During modern times sudden drops in temperature and salinity of Skagerrak deep waters point to advection-induced cascades of colder and denser central North Sea waters entering the Skagerrak. These temperature drops, which are recorded in benthic foraminiferal tests via the stable oxygen isotopic composition, were used to reconstruct deep-water renewal in the Skagerrak. In a second step we will show that, at least during the last 1200 years, Skagerrak deep-water renewal is triggered by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO exerts a strong influence on the climate of northwestern Europe. It is currently under debate if the long-term variability of the NAO is capable of influencing Northern Hemisphere climate on long timescales. The data presented here cannot reinforce these speculations. Our data show that most of the 'Little Ice Age' was dominated by comparably warm deep-water temperatures. However, we did find extraordinary strong temperature differences between central North Sea waters and North Atlantic water masses during this time interval.

Modern and fossil corals from Palmyra and Christmas islands

The relationship between decadal to centennial changes in ocean circulation and climate is difficult to discern using the sparse and discontinuous instrumental record of climate and, as such, represents a large uncertainty in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. We present new modern and fossil coral radiocarbon (D14C) records from Palmyra (6°N, 162°W) and Christmas (2°N, 157°W) islands to constrain central tropical Pacific ocean circulation changes during the last millennium. Seasonally to annually resolved coral D14C measurements from the 10th, 12th-17th, and 20th centuries do not contain significant interannual to decadal-scale variations, despite large changes in coral d18O on these timescales. A centennial-scale increase in coral radiocarbon from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~900-1200 AD) to the Little Ice Age (~1500-1800) can be largely explained by changes in the atmospheric D14C, as determined with a box model of Palmyra mixed layer D14C. However, large 12th century depletions in Palmyra coral D14C may reflect as much as a 100% increase in upwelling rates and/or a significant decrease in the D14C of higher-latitude source waters reaching the equatorial Pacific during this time. SEM photos reveal evidence for minor dissolution and addition of secondary aragonite in the fossil corals, but our results suggest that coral D14C is only compromised after moderate to severe diagenesis for these relatively young fossil corals.

The Austrian Glacier Inventories GI 1 (1969), GI 2 (1998), GI 3 (2006), and GI LIA in ArcGIS (shapefile) format

Glacier inventories provide the basis for further studies on mass balance and volume change, relevant for local hydrological issues as well as for global calculation of sea level rise. In this study, a new Austrian glacier inventory has been compiled, updating data from 1969 (GI 1) and 1998 (GI 2) based on high-resolution lidar digital elevation models (DEMs) and orthophotos dating from 2004 to 2012 (GI 3). To expand the time series of digital glacier inventories in the past, the glacier outlines of the Little Ice Age maximum state (LIA) have been digitalized based on the lidar DEM and orthophotos. The resulting glacier area for GI 3 of 415.11 ± 11.18 km**2 is 44% of the LIA area. The annual relative area losses are 0.3%/yr for the ~119-year period GI LIA to GI 1 with one period with major glacier advances in the 1920s. From GI 1 to GI 2 (29 years, one advance period of variable length in the 1980s) glacier area decreased by 0.6% yr?1 and from GI 2 to GI 3 (10 years, no advance period) by 1.2%/yr. Regional variability of the annual relative area loss is highest in the latest period, ranging from 0.3 to 6.19%/yr. The mean glacier size decreased from 0.69 km**2 (GI 1) to 0.46 km**2 (GI 3), with 47% of the glaciers being smaller than 0.1 km**2 in GI 3 (22%).

Analyses of lake La Thuile sediment core

Lake La Thuile, in the Northern French Prealps (874 m a.s.l.), provides an 18 m long sedimentary sequence spanning the entire Lateglacial/Holocene period. The high resolution multi-proxy (sedimentological, palynological, geochemical) analysis of the uppermost 6.2 meters reveals the Holocene dynamics of erosion in the catchment in response to landscape modifications. The mountain belt is at relevant altitude to study past human activities and the watershed is sufficiently disconnected from large valleys to capture a local sedimentary signal. From 12,000 to 10,000 cal. BP (10 to 8 ka cal. BC), the onset of hardwood species triggered a drop in erosion following the Lateglacial/Holocene transition. From 10,000 to 4500 cal. BP (8 to 2.5 ka cal. BC), the forest became denser and favored slope stabilization while erosion processes were very weak. A first erosive phase was initiated at ca . 4500 cal. BP without evidence of human presence in the catchment. Then, the forest declined at approximately 3000 cal. BP, suggesting the first human influence on the landscape. Two other erosive phases are related to anthropic activities: approximately 2500 cal. BP (550 cal. BC) during the Roman period and after 1600 cal. BP (350 cal. AD) with a substantial accentuation in the Middle Ages. In contrast, the lower erosion produced during the Little Ice Age, when climate deteriorations are generally considered to result in an increased erosion signal in this region, suggests that anthropic activities dominated the erosive processes and completely masked the natural effects of climate on erosion in the late Holocene.

Temperature reconstruction of sediment cores from the northeastern Arabian Sea

In order to reconstruct the monsoonal variability during the late Holocene we investigated a complete, annually laminated sediment record from the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) off Pakistan for oxygen isotopes of planktic foraminifera and alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures (SST). Significant SST changes of up to 3°C which cannot be explained by changes in the alkenone-producing coccolithophorid species (inferred from the Gephyrocapsa oceanica / Emiliania huxleyi ratio) suggest that SST changes are driven by changes in the monsoon strength. Our high-(decadal)-resolution data indicate that the late Holocene in the northeastern Arabian Sea was not characterized by a stable uniform climate, as inferred from the Greenland ice cores, but by variations in the dominance of the SW monsoon conditions with significant effects on temperatures. Highest SST fluctuations of up to 3.0°C and 2.5°C were observed for the time interval from 4600 to 3300 years B.P. and during the past 500 years. The significant, short-term SST changes during the past 500 years might be related to climatic instabilities known from the northern latitudes ("Little Ice Age") and confirm global effects. Surface salinity values, reconstructed from delta18O records after correction for temperature-related oxygen isotope fractionation, suggest that in general, the past 5000 years were characterized by higher-than-recent evaporation and more intense SW monsoon conditions. However, between 4600 and 3700 years B.P., evaporation dropped, SW monsoon weakened, and NE monsoon conditions were comparatively enhanced. For the past 1500 years we infer strongly fluctuating monsoon conditions. Comparisons of reconstructed salinity records with ice accumulation data from published Tibetan ice core and Tibetan tree ring width data reveal that during the past 2000 years, enhanced evaporation in the northeastern Arabian Sea correlates with periods of increased ice accumulation in Tibet, and vice versa. This suggests a strong climatic relationship between both monsoon-controlled areas.

Sedimentology and geochemistry of late glacial and Holocene sediments from Laguna Potrok Aike, Patagonia

A high-resolution multiproxy geochemical approach was applied to the sediments of Laguna Potrok Aike in an attempt to reconstruct moist and dry periods during the past 16 000 years in southeastern Patagonia. The age-depth model is inferred from AMS 14C dates and tephrochronology, and suggests moist conditions during the Lateglacial and early Holocene (16 000-8700 cal. BP) interrupted by drier conditions before the beginning of the Holocene (13 200-11 400 cal. BP). Data also imply that this period was a major warm phase in southeastern Patagonia and was approximately contemporaneous with the Younger Dryas chronozone in the Northern Hemisphere (12 700-11 500 cal. BP). After 8650 cal. BP a major drought may have caused the lowest lake level of the record. Since 7300 cal. BP, the lake level rose and was variable until the 'Little Ice Age', which was the dominant humid period after 8650 cal. BP.

Stable isotope record of sediment core MD98-2177

We present a reconstruction of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability spanning the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, A.D. 800-1300) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, A.D. 1500-1850). Changes in ENSO are estimated by comparing the spread and symmetry of d18O values of individual specimens of the thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifer Pulleniatina obliquiloculata extracted from discrete time horizons of a sediment core collected in the Sulawesi Sea, at the edge of the western tropical Pacific warm pool. The spread of individual d18O values is interpreted to be a measure of the strength of both phases of ENSO while the symmetry of the d18O distributions is used to evaluate the relative strength/frequency of El Niño and La Niña events. In contrast to previous studies, we use robust and resistant statistics to quantify the spread and symmetry of the d18O distributions; an approach motivated by the relatively small sample size and the presence of outliers. Furthermore, we use a pseudo-proxy approach to investigate the effects of the different paleo-environmental factors on the statistics of the d18O distributions, which could bias the paleo-ENSO reconstruction. We find no systematic difference in the magnitude/strength of ENSO during the Northern Hemisphere MCA or LIA. However, our results suggest that ENSO during the MCA was skewed toward stronger/more frequent La Niña than El Niño, an observation consistent with the medieval megadroughts documented from sites in western North America.

Stable isotope record of a Bermuda coral

Records of skeletal delta18O in monthly and Sr/Ca ratios in half-yearly resolution were obtained from a Bermuda coral (Diploria labyrinthiformis) for the time period 1520-1603 (+/-15 yr) AD within the Little Ice Age. Annual and decadal averages of both sea-surface temperature proxies indicate temperature variabilities of 0.5°C (standard deviation) and 0.3°C, respectively. Both numbers are close to recent instrumental observations. Approximately 30% of the interannual time series variance of delta18O is concentrated in broad bands centered at periods of ~30, 16, and 7.8 yr, the last two reflecting the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Although this large-scale climate signal is present in the record, there is no correlation with other contemporaneous northern hemisphere proxy data, resulting from spatial differences in climate variability.