Uncertainty and feasibility studies: an Italian case study

Uncertainty affects all aspects of the property market but one area where the impact of uncertainty is particularly significant is within feasibility analyses. Any development is impacted by differences between market conditions at the conception of the project and the market realities at the time of completion. The feasibility study needs to address the possible outcomes based on an understanding of the current market. This requires the appraiser to forecast the most likely outcome relating to the sale price of the completed development, the construction costs and the timing of both. It also requires the appraiser to understand the impact of finance on the project. All these issues are time sensitive and analysis needs to be undertaken to show the impact of time to the viability of the project. The future is uncertain and a full feasibility analysis should be able to model the upside and downside risk pertaining to a range of possible outcomes. Feasibility studies are extensively used in Italy to determine land value but they tend to be single point analysis based upon a single set of “likely” inputs. In this paper we look at the practical impact of uncertainty in variables using a simulation model (Crystal Ball ©) with an actual case study of an urban redevelopment plan for an Italian Municipality. This allows the appraiser to address the issues of uncertainty involved and thus provide the decision maker with a better understanding of the risk of development. This technique is then refined using a “two-dimensional technique” to distinguish between “uncertainty” and “variability” and thus create a more robust model.

Six translated Italian poems: The many voices of Italian literature

'Leased' by Fernanda Romagnoli, 'Travellers' by Luciano Erba,'The Glory' by Maria Luisa Spaziani, 'Chatting' by Pier Luigi Bacchini,'The Atlantic Day' by Patrizia Cavalli, 'They Speak' by Valerio Magrelli

Prediction and functional analysis of native disorder in proteins from the Three Kingdoms of Life

An automatic method for recognizing natively disordered regions from amino acid sequence is described and benchmarked against predictors that were assessed at the latest critical assessment of techniques for protein structure prediction (CASP) experiment. The method attains a Wilcoxon score of 90.0, which represents a statistically significant improvement on the methods evaluated on the same targets at CASP. The classifier, DISOPRED2, was used to estimate the frequency of native disorder in several representative genomes from the three kingdoms of life. Putative, long (>30 residue) disordered segments are found to occur in 2.0% of archaean, 4.2% of eubacterial and 33.0% of eukaryotic proteins. The function of proteins with long predicted regions of disorder was investigated using the gene ontology annotations supplied with the Saccharomyces genome database. The analysis of the yeast proteome suggests that proteins containing disorder are often located in the cell nucleus and are involved in the regulation of transcription and cell signalling. The results also indicate that native disorder is associated with the molecular functions of kinase activity and nucleic acid binding.