Is privatisation good for investment in Australia?

Privatisation was expected to promote investment in the economy as part of improving dynamic efficiency. The relation between aggregate public and private investment in Australia is investigated in an endogeneous ECM framework. Model selection for a simple investment function allows restrictions for neoclassical crowding out or Keynesian crowding in (after Aschauer 1989) in a small open economy. An ECM is estimated including annual aggregate private investment, public investment, income, rate of return, average interest cost, exchange rate and inventories from 1960 to 2005. Public capital appears unresponsive to shocks and crowding out is not evident.

Cost-effectiveness of adult circumcision in a resource-rich setting for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men

Background.  We examined the effects and cost‐effectiveness of 4 strategies of circumcision in a resource‐rich setting (Australia) in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM).

Method.  We created a dynamic mathematical transmission model and performed an economic analysis to estimate the costs, outcomes, and cost‐effectiveness of different strategies, compared with those of the status quo. Strategies included circumcision of all MSM at age 18 years, circumcision of all MSM aged 35–44 years, circumcision of all insertive MSM aged 18 years, and circumcision of all MSM aged 18 years . All costs are reported in US dollars, with a cost‐effectiveness threshold of $42,000 per quality‐adjusted life‐year.

Results.  We find that 2%–5% of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections would be averted per year, with initial costs ranging from $3.6 million to $95.1 million, depending on the strategy. The number of circumcisions needed to prevent 1 HIV infection would range from 118 through 338. Circumcision of predominately insertive MSM would save $21.7 million over 25 years with a $62.2 million investment. Strategies to circumcise 100% of all MSM and to circumcise MSM aged 35–44 years would be cost‐effective; the latter would require a smaller investment. The least cost‐effective approach is circumcision of young MSM close to their sexual debut. Results are very sensitive to assumptions about the cost of circumcision, the efficacy of circumcision, sexual preferences, and behavioral disinhibition.

Conclusions.  Circumcision of adult MSM may be cost‐effective in this resource‐rich setting. However, the intervention costs are high relative to the costs spent on other HIV prevention programs.

Explaining organizational investment in CRM point solutions

This paper asks why organisations invest in non-integrated CRM point solutions when many of the benefits of enterprise systems are claimed to be due to integration of processes and information. This paper identifies six factors that explain why organisations invest in CRM point solutions: reduced risk; lower cost; quick benefits realization; low integration ability, low interdependence of business units, and high business-unit differentiation. The evidence suggests that when interdependence between parts of an organization is low, possibly due to one unit producing a clearly differentiated product, the attractions of lower risk, lower cost, and/or faster access to the benefits are likely to induce organizations to adopt CRM point solutions. The contribution of this study is that it recognizes that, and explains why, it is not always optimal for organizations to adopt integrated CRM solutions.

Integrated modelling of cost-effective siting and operation of flow-control infrastructure for river ecosystem conservation

Wetland and floodplain ecosystems along many regulated rivers are highly stressed, primarily due to a lack of environmental flows of appropriate magnitude, frequency, duration, and timing to support ecological functions. In the absence of increased environmental flows, the ecological health of river ecosystems can be enhanced by the operation of existing and new flow-control infrastructure (weirs and regulators) to return more natural environmental flow regimes to specific areas. However, determining the optimal investment and operation strategies over time is a complex task due to several factors including the multiple environmental values attached to wetlands, spatial and temporal heterogeneity and dependencies, nonlinearity, and time-dependent decisions. This makes for a very large number of decision variables over a long planning horizon. The focus of this paper is the development of a nonlinear integer programming model that accommodates these complexities. The mathematical objective aims to return the natural flow regime of key components of river ecosystems in terms of flood timing, flood duration, and interflood period. We applied a 2-stage recursive heuristic using tabu search to solve the model and tested it on the entire South Australian River Murray floodplain. We conclude that modern meta-heuristics can be used to solve the very complex nonlinear problems with spatial and temporal dependencies typical of environmental flow allocation in regulated river ecosystems. The model has been used to inform the investment in, and operation of, flow-control infrastructure in the South Australian River Murray.

The cost-effectiveness of universal newborn screening for bilateral permanent congenital hearing impairment : systematic review

Objective - Universal newborn hearing screening for bilateral permanent congenital hearing impairment is standard practice in many developed economies, but until there is clear evidence of cost-effectiveness, it remains a controversial use of limited health care resources. We conducted a formal systematic review of studies of newborn hearing screening that considered both costs and outcomes to produce a summary of the available evidence and to determine whether there was a need for further research.

Methods - A search was conducted of medical and nursing databases and gray literature websites by the use of multiple keywords. The titles and abstracts of studies were examined for preliminary inclusion if reference was made to newborn hearing screening, and to both costs and outcomes. Studies of potential relevance were independently assessed by 2 health economists for final inclusion in the review. Studies that met inclusion criteria were appraised by the use of existing guidelines for observational studies, economic evaluations and decision analytic models, and reported in a narrative literature review.

Results - There were 22 distinct observational or modeled evaluations of which only 2 clearly compared universal newborn hearing screening to risk factor screening for bilateral permanent congenital hearing impairment. Of these, the single evaluation that examined long-term costs and outcomes found that universal newborn hearing screening could be cost-saving if early intervention led to a substantial reduction in future treatment costs and productivity losses.

Conclusions - There are only a small number of economic evaluations that have examined the long-term cost-effectiveness of universal newborn hearing screening. This is partly attributable to ongoing uncertainty about the benefits gained from the early detection and treatment of bilateral permanent congenital hearing impairment. There is a clear need for further research on long-term costs and outcomes to establish the cost-effectiveness of universal newborn hearing screening in relation to other approaches to screening, and to establish whether it is a good long term investment.

The impact of a suicide prevention strategy on reducing the economic cost of suicide in the New South Wales construction industry

BACKGROUND: Little research has been conducted into the cost and prevention of self-harm in the workplace. AIMS: To quantify the economic cost of self-harm and suicide among New South Wales (NSW) construction industry (CI) workers and to examine the potential economic impact of implementing Mates in Construction (MIC). METHOD: Direct and indirect costs were estimated. Effectiveness was measured using the relative risk ratio (RRR). In Queensland (QLD), relative suicide risks were estimated for 5-year periods before and after the commencement of MIC. For NSW, the difference between the expected (i.e., using NSW pre-MIC [2008-2012] suicide risk) and counterfactual suicide cases (i.e., applying QLD RRR) provided an estimate of potential suicide cases averted in the post-MIC period (2013-2017). Results were adjusted using the average uptake (i.e., 9.4%) of MIC activities in QLD. Economic savings from averted cases were compared with the cost of implementing MIC. RESULTS: The cost of self-harm and suicide in the NSW CI was AU $527 million in 2010. MIC could potentially avert 0.4 suicides, 1.01 full incapacity cases, and 4.92 short absences, generating annual savings of AU $3.66 million. For every AU $1 invested, the economic return is approximately AU $4.6. CONCLUSION: MIC represents a positive economic investment in workplace safety.

Trade or investment? location decisions under regional integration

This paper studies the production and trade patterns that may arise between two different countries if plant location is introduced as a first step in the producers' decision making. A three-stage game is used: the first deals with location and the next two with capacity and final sales decisions. Demand and cost structures differ by country, and the latter contain specific elements related to the foreign operation. The structure of possible Nash-equilibria is examined and an analysis of the changes in the solution, if the countries engage in an integration process, is made. As in previous models, though global welfare gains may not be very high, single country ones may be considerable, due to changes in the location of the plants. However, even if full integration takes place, global Marshallian welfare may decrease. Conditions which determine a tendency towards multinationalisation are obtained. Assuming a move toward integration, conditions are also provided to characterize when exporting will be preferred to local production. The fact that producers may retain a certain discriminating power, notwithstanding the elimination of barriers to arbitrage, creates a tendency to locate production in the country where prices are higher. This explains why welfare gains may not be obvious. An empirical illustration, with real data from two MERCOSUL countries (Brazil and Argentina) illustrates the possible outcomes.

Government policy and private investment in Brazil (1955/82)

The questlon of the crowding-out of private !nvestment by public expenditure, public investment in particular , ln the Brazilian economy has been discussed more in ideological terrns than on empirical grounds. The present paper tries to avoid the limitation of previous studies by estlmatlng an equation for private investment whlch makes it possible to evaluate the effect of economic policies on prlvate investment. The private lnvestment equation was deduced modifylng the optimal flexible accelerator medel (OFAM) incorporating some channels through which public expendlture influences privateinvestment. The OFAM consists in adding adjustment costs to the neoclassical theory of investrnent. The investment fuction deduced is quite general and has the following explanatory variables: relative prices (user cost of capitaljimput prices ratios), real interest rates, real product, public expenditures and lagged private stock of capital. The model was estimated for private manufacturing industry data. The procedure adopted in estimating the model was to begin with a model as general as possible and apply restrictions to the model ' s parameters and test their statistical significance. A complete diagnostic testing was also made in order to test the stability of estirnated equations. This procedure avoids ' the shortcomings of estimating a model with a apriori restrictions on its parameters , which may lead to model misspecification. The main findings of the present study were: the increase in public expenditure, at least in the long run, has in general a positive expectation effect on private investment greater than its crowding-out effect on priva te investment owing to the simultaneous rise in interst rates; a change in economlc policy, such as that one of Geisel administration, may have an important effect on private lnvestment; and reI ative prices are relevant in determining the leveI of desired stock of capital and private investrnent.

Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default

This dissertation analyses quantitatively the costs of sovereign default for the economy, in a model where banks with long positions in government debt play a central role in the financial intermediation for private sector's investments and face financial frictions that limit their leverage ability. Calibration tries to resemble some features of the Eurozone, where discussions about bailout schemes and default risk have been central issues. Results show that the model captures one important cost of default pointed out by empirical and theoretical literature on debt crises, namely the fall in investment that follows haircut episodes, what can be explained by a worsening in banks' balance sheet conditions that limits credit for the private sector and raises their funding costs. The cost in terms of output decrease is though not significant enough to justify the existence of debt markets and the government incentives for debt repayment. Assuming that the government is able to alleviate its constrained budget by imposing a restructuring on debt repayment profile that allows it to cut taxes, our model generates an important difference for output path comparing lump-sum taxes and distortionary. For our calibration, quantitative results show that in terms of output and utility, it is possible that the effect on the labour supply response generated by tax cuts dominates investment drop caused by credit crunch on financial markets. We however abstract from default costs associated to the breaking of existing contracts, external sanctions and risk spillovers between countries, that might also be relevant in addition to financial disruption effects. Besides, there exist considerable trade-offs for short and long run path of economic variables related to government and banks' behaviour.

Investment coordination failures and the confidence channel of fiscal policy

Este trabalho desenvolve um novo "canal de Confiança" da política fiscal e caracteriza a política ótima quando esse canal é levado em consideração. Para esse objetivo, utilizamos um modelo estático com (i) concorrência monopolística, (ii) custos de ajustamento fixos para investir, (iii) complementaridade estratégica devido a informação imperfeita com respeito a produtividade agregada, e (iv) bens privados como substitutos imperfeitos de bens privados. Este arcabouço acomoda a possibilidade de falhas de coordenação nos investimentos, mas apresenta um equilíbrio único. Mostramos que a política fiscal tem efeitos importantes na coordenação. Um aumento dos gastos do governo leva a uma maior demanda por bens privados. Mais importante, este também afeta as expectativas de ordem superior com relação a demanda das demais firmas, que amplifica os efeitos do aumento inicial da demanda devido a complementaridade estratégica nas decisões de investimento. Como as demais firmas estão se deparam com uma demanda maior, espera-se que estas invistam mais, que por sua vez, aumenta a demanda individual de cada firma, que aumenta os incentivos a investir. Denominamos isto como o "canal de confiança" da política fiscal. Sob a ameaça de falhas de coordenação, a política fiscal ótima prescreve produzir além do ponto em que o benefício marginal resultante do consumo de bens públicos é igual ao custo marginal desses bens. Este benefício adicional vem do fato de que a política fiscal pode ampliar a coordenação dos investimentos.

The determinantss of foreign direct investment distribution among the Brazilian states

O Investimento Estrangeiro Direto (IED) tem desempenhado um papel importante no esforço do Brasil para tornar-se uma economia orientada para o mercado. De 1995 a 2012 o Brasil recebeu $ 511.5 bilhões de dólares em IED. Em 2012, o Brasil foi o segundo país em desenvolvimento que mais recebeu IED e o quarto no mundo (UNCTAD).Devido à concentração geográfica, os estados brasileiros que são consideravelmente menos desenvolvidos e mais pobres, são aqueles que mais precisam de investimentos e que no entanto, não têm sido receptores relevantes de IED. Em 2010, os estados com os maiores estoques de IED foram São Paulo, com 42,3 por cento do total ($ 99,9 bilhões de dólares), Rio de Janeiro com 13,3 por cento ($ 31,4 bilhões de dólares) e Minas Gerais com 10,6 por cento do total ($ 25,1 bilhões de dólares). Como pode ser observado, apenas três dos vinte e sete estados brasileiros receberam cerca de 66 por cento do total de IED destinado ao Brasil.Dada tal diferenciação na distribuição de IED entre os estados brasileiros, o presente estudo busca explicar se o benefício tributário também é determinante para o fluxo de IED, além das demais variáveis já consideradas como determinantes em outros estudos. Dada a limitação de dados, realizamos duas análises econométricas com dados em painel: 1. Usando seis variáveis chaves: tamanho do mercado consumidor, a qualidade da mão de obra, infraestrutura, custo da mão de obra, carga tributária e benefício tributário (por macro regiões), nos anos de 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010; 2. Usando cinco variáveis: as mesmas do primeiro modelo, excluindo o custo da mão de obra (por falta de dados) e utilizando os dados de benefício tributário por estado, nos anos de 2010, 2011 e 2012.

Investment recovery period in electric motor of higher efficiency in pumping for irrigation

Neste trabalho, ajustou-se um modelo matemático para quantificar o efeito do rendimento do motor elétrico sobre os custos de um sistema de bombeamento para irrigação na estrutura tarifária de energia elétrica convencional e horo-sazonal verde, bem como calcular o tempo de recuperação do capital investido no equipamento de maior rendimento. em seguida, o mesmo foi aplicado a um sistema de irrigação tipo pivô central em duas opções de rendimento do motor elétrico: 92,6% (linha padrão) e 94,3% (linha alto rendimento), sendo que o custo de aquisição do primeiro correspondeu a 70% do segundo. A potência do motor elétrico era de 100 cv. Os resultados mostraram que o modelo permitiu avaliar se um motor de alto rendimento era viável economicamente em relação ao motor-padrão em cada estrutura tarifária. Nas duas estruturas tarifárias, o motor de alto rendimento não foi viável. Na tarifa horo-sazonal verde, somente seria viável se seu rendimento fosse 4,46% superior ao do motor-padrão. Na tarifa convencional, somente seria viável se o ganho de rendimento superasse 2,71%.

Foreign Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2003

Includes bibliography

Municipal solid waste management in the Caribbean: a benefit-cost analysis

Includes bibliography

Expert opinion as an instrument for assessing investment in primary education

Includes bibliography