Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.

Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

Flood Risk Management In Small Urban River Using A Sustainable Urban Drainage System: Wortley Beck, Leeds, Uk

In the UK, urban river basins are particularly vulnerable to flash floods due to short and intense rainfall. This paper presents potential flood resilience approaches for the highly urbanised Wortley Beck river basin, south west of the Leeds city centre. The reach of Wortley Beck is approximately 6km long with contributing catchment area of 30km2 that drain into the River Aire. Lower Wortley has experienced regular flooding over the last few years from a range of sources, including Wortley Beck and surface and ground water, that affects properties both upstream and downstream of Farnley Lake as well as Wortley Ring Road. This has serious implications for society, the environment and economy activity in the City of Leeds. The first stage of the study involves systematically incorporating Wortley Beck’s land scape features on an Arc-GIS platform to identify existing green features in the region. This process also enables the exploration of potential blue green features: green spaces, green roofs, water retention ponds and swales at appropriate locations and connect them with existing green corridors to maximize their productivity. The next stage is involved in developing a detailed 2D urban flood inundation model for the Wortley Beck region using the CityCat model. CityCat is capable to model the effects of permeable/impermeable ground surfaces and buildings/roofs to generate flood depth and velocity maps at 1m caused by design storm events. The final stage of the study is involved in simulation of range of rainfall and flood event scenarios through CityCat model with different blue green features. Installation of other hard engineering individual property protection measures through water butts and flood walls are also incorporated in the CityCat model. This enables an integrated sustainable flood resilience strategy for this region.

Avaliação de impacto ambiental e gestão dos recursos natuarias no estuário Apodi Mossoró, nordeste do Brasil

The aim of this study is to investigate the eco-environmental vulnerability, its changes, and its causes to develop a management system for application of eco-environmental vulnerability and risk assessment in the Apodi-Mossory estuary, Northeast Brazil. This analysis is focused on the interference of the landscape conditions, and its changes, due to the following factors: the oil and natural gas industry, tropical fruits industry, shrimp farms, marine salt industry, occupation of the sensitive areas; demand for land, vegetation degradation, siltation in rivers, severe flooding, sea level rise (SLR), coastal dynamics, low and flat topography, high ecological value and tourism in the region and the rapid growth of urbanization. Conventional and remote sensing data were analyzed using modeling techniques based on ArcGIS, ER-Mapper, ERDAS Imagine and ENVI software. Digital images were initially processed by Principal Component Analysis and transformation of the maximum fraction of noise, and then all bands were normalized to reduce errors caused by bands of different sizes. They were integrated in a Geographic Information System analysis to detect changes, to generate digital elevation models, geomorphic indices and other variables of the study area. A three band color combination of multispectral bands was used to monitor changes of land and vegetation cover from 1986 to 2009. This task also included the analysis of various secondary data, such as field data, socioeconomic data, environmental data and prospects growth. The main objective of this study was to improve our understanding of eco-environmental vulnerability and risk assessment; it´s causes basically show the intensity, its distribution and human-environment effect on the ecosystem, and identify the high and low sensitive areas and area of inundation due to future SLR, and the loss of land due to coastal erosion in the Apodi-Mossoró estuary in order to establish a strategy for sustainable land use. The developed model includes some basic factors such as geology, geomorphology, soils, land use / land cover, vegetation cover, slope, topography and hydrology. The numerical results indicate that 9.86% of total study area was under very high vulnerability, 29.12% high vulnerability, 52.90% moderate vulnerability and 2.23% were in the category of very low vulnerability. The analysis indicates that 216.1 km² and 362.8 km² area flooded on 1m and 10m in sea levels respectively. The sectors most affected were residential, industrial and recreational areas, agricultural land, and ecosystems of high environmental sensitivity. The results showed that changes in eco-environmental vulnerability have a significant impact on the sustainable development of the RN state, since the indicator is a function of sensitivity, exposure and status in relation to a level of damage. The model were presented as a tool to assist in indexing vulnerability in order to optimize actions and assess the implications of decisions makers and policies regarding the management of coastal and estuarine areas. In this context aspects such as population growth, degradation of vegetation, land use / land cover, amount and type of industrialization, SLR and government policies for environmental protection were considered the main factors that affect the eco-environmental changes over the last three decades in the Apodi-Mossoró estuary.

Cartografia temporal e análise geoambiental da dinâmica da foz do Rio Piranhas-Açu, regiao de Macau-RN, com base em imagens Landast 5-MT

This work embraces the application of Landsat 5-TM digital images, comprising August 2 1989 and September 22 1998, for temporal mapping and geoenvironmental analysis of the dynamic of Piranhas-Açu river mouth, situated in the Macau (RN) region. After treatment using several digital processing techniques (e.g. colour composition in RGB, ratio of bands, principal component analysis, index methods, among others), it was possible to generate several image products and multitemporal maps of the coastal morphodynamics of the studied area. Using the image products it was possible the identification and characterization of the principal elements of interest (vegetation, soil, geology and water) in the surface of the studied area, associating the spectral characteristics of these elements to that presented by the image products resulting of the digital processing. Thus, it was possible to define different types of soils: Amd, AQd6, SK1 and LVe4; vegetation grouping: open arboreal-shrubby caatinga, closed arborealshrubby caatinga, closed arboreal caatinga, mangrove vegetation, dune vegetation and areas predominately constituted by juremas; geological units: quaternary units beach sediments, sand banks, dune flats, barrier island, mobile dunes, fixed dunes, alluvium, tidal and inundation flats, and sandy facies of the Potengi Formation; tertiary-quaternary units Barreiras Formation grouped to the clayey facies of the Potengi Formation, Macau Formation grouped to the sediments of the Tibau Formation; Cretaceous units Jandaíra Formation; moreover it was to identify the sea/land limit, shallow submersed areas and suspended sediments. The multitemporal maps of the coastal morphodynamics allowed the identification and a semi-quantitative evoluation of regions which were submitted to erosive and constructive processes in the last decade. This semi-quantitative evoluation in association with an geoenvironmental characterization of the studied area are important data to the elaboration of actions that may minimize the possible/probable impacts caused by the implantation of the Polo Gas/Sal and to the monitoring of areas explorated by the petroleum and salt industries

Temporary fragmentation of a marginal lake and its effects on zooplankton community structure and organization

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Influência da variação do nível hidrométrico na comunidade fitoplanctônica do Rio Paranapanema e de uma lagoa marginal na zona de desembocadura na Represa de Jurumirim (SP)

Este estudo visou analisar os efeitos da variação do nível hidrométrico na estrutura do fitoplâncton do Rio Paranapanema e de uma lagoa marginal na zona de desembocadura no Reservatório de Jurumirim (SP). As amostragens foram realizadas em duas estações em cada ambiente de julho/2004 a julho/2005. Os maiores valores de riqueza e diversidade foram encontrados na estiagem, enquanto que as maiores densidade e biovolume foram registradas na cheia. A espécie Cryptomonas brasiliensis Castro, C. Bicudo & D. Bicudo (R - estrategista) foi constante ao longo de todo o estudo, sendo dominante, principalmente, no final da estiagem e na enchente, quando os eventos de distúrbios foram mais freqüentes. As diatomáceas foram predominantes quanto à biomassa, representadas, principalmente, por Aulacoseira granulata (Ehrenberg) Simonsem e suas variedades. Conclui-se que, o volume de água acumulada no reservatório à jusante não permite que o pulso hidrológico ocasione um distúrbio que resulte em elevado aumento da diversidade nos ambientes estudados, após a enchente.

Ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) on Wild Marsh-Deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) from Southeast Brazil: Infestations before and after Habitat Loss

The lake from Porto-Primavera hydroelectric power station inundated an area of 2,200 km2 at the border of São Paulo and Mato-Grosso do Sul States, Brazil. Infestations by ticks were evaluated on 135 marsh deer, Blastocerus dichotomus (Illiger), captured before and after inundation. Ticks were collected for identification, and infestation level of animals was assessed by scoring. Deer were divided into four groups according to capture location and temporal relation to the inundation. Groups 1, 2, and 3 were captured before inundation. Group 4 was captured after inundation. Four tick species were found: Amblyomma cajennense (F.), Amblyomma triste Koch, Anocentor nitens (Neumann), and Boophilus microplus (Canestrini). Groups 1, 2, 3, and 4 had 30, 45, 100, and 96%, respectively, of animals carrying B. microplus ticks. A. triste was observed on 16, 22, 22, and 88% of animals from groups 1,2,3, and 4, respectively. A. nitens and A. cajennense were observed only on group 4, on 32 and 16% of the animals, respectively. Groups 1 and 2 had only 4.8 and 6.1% of animals with high infestation levels, respectively, and no ticks on 46.8% and 45.5% of the animals, respectively. Conversely, groups 3 and 4 lacked noninfested animals and had high infestation levels on 77.8 and 50% of deer, respectively. Marsh area shrinkage was blamed for higher infestation levels on deer from groups 3 and 4. The widespread presence of A. triste on marsh deer, a Neotropical tick species, raises the possibility of a natural host-parasite relationship.

SIG e sensoriamento remoto aplicado ao estudo dos processos de inundação e mapeamento da cobertura vegetal na planície fluvial do alto Rio Paraná

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Religião e sociedade no Egito antigo: do mito de Ísis e Osíris na obra de Plutarco (I d.C.)

Pós-graduação em História - FCLAS

Estudo da precipitação e seus impactos no município de Rio Claro: uma análise do ano de 2011

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago

The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

Morfologia do relevo da porção sul do megaleque fluvial do Taquari, Pantanal da Nhecolândia, Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Impactos pluviais na área urbana de Ribeirão Preto - SP

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Composição florística e estrutura da comunidade vegetal em diferentes fitofisionomias do Pantanal de Poconé, Mato Grosso

The aim of this research was to analyze the composition and structure of the plant community in four phytophysiognomies at Pantanal Poconé-Mato Grosso, assuming that each sample group is a type of community, and there would be a corresponding group of species that characterize that community. We set up five plots of 50 × 50 m and subdivided each one into subplots of 10 × 10 m. In each subplot, individuals with CAP (circunference at breast height) > 10 cm were sampled. To check the structural and floristic similarity of the five vegetation types the unweighted averages grouping method was used - UPGMA, with Jaccard's coefficient and Bray-Curtis, respectively. DCA ordination of plots was used for inundation gradient analysis and TWINSPAN indicator species groups for the three strata. In the four areas 55 species belonging to 30 families were sampled. The UPMGA indicated floristic and structural differences between cambarazal, savanna types and campo de murundu and similarity between the semideciduous formations. The DCA separated the vegetation types according to the level of flooding and TWINSPAN indicated the existence of typical species for each vegetation type. In the Pantanal, some species may be restricted to certain types of vegetation, and these species can be used as indicators of the effect of flooding and possible changes in flood pulse dynamics in plant communities.