Equity and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment

Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

Handheld-assisted field data collection for occupational risk assessment.

A computerized handheld procedure is presented in this paper. It is intended as a database complementary tool, to enhance prospective risk analysis in the field of occupational health. The Pendragon forms software (version 3.2) has been used to implement acquisition procedures on Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) and to transfer data to a computer in an MS-Access format. The data acquisition strategy proposed relies on the risk assessment method practiced at the Institute of Occupational Health Sciences (IST). It involves the use of a systematic hazard list and semi-quantitative risk assessment scales. A set of 7 modular forms has been developed to cover the basic need of field audits. Despite the minor drawbacks observed, the results obtained so far show that handhelds are adequate to support field risk assessment and follow-up activities. Further improvements must still be made in order to increase the tool effectiveness and field adequacy.

Surviving Sepsis Campaign: international guidelines for management of severe sepsis and septic shock: 2008.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an update to the original Surviving Sepsis Campaign clinical management guidelines, "Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock," published in 2004. DESIGN: Modified Delphi method with a consensus conference of 55 international experts, several subsequent meetings of subgroups and key individuals, teleconferences, and electronic-based discussion among subgroups and among the entire committee. This process was conducted independently of any industry funding. METHODS: We used the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system to guide assessment of quality of evidence from high (A) to very low (D) and to determine the strength of recommendations. A strong recommendation (1) indicates that an intervention's desirable effects clearly outweigh its undesirable effects (risk, burden, cost) or clearly do not. Weak recommendations (2) indicate that the tradeoff between desirable and undesirable effects is less clear. The grade of strong or weak is considered of greater clinical importance than a difference in letter level of quality of evidence. In areas without complete agreement, a formal process of resolution was developed and applied. Recommendations are grouped into those directly targeting severe sepsis, recommendations targeting general care of the critically ill patient that are considered high priority in severe sepsis, and pediatric considerations. RESULTS: Key recommendations, listed by category, include early goal-directed resuscitation of the septic patient during the first 6 hrs after recognition (1C); blood cultures before antibiotic therapy (1C); imaging studies performed promptly to confirm potential source of infection (1C); administration of broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy within 1 hr of diagnosis of septic shock (1B) and severe sepsis without septic shock (1D); reassessment of antibiotic therapy with microbiology and clinical data to narrow coverage, when appropriate (1C); a usual 7-10 days of antibiotic therapy guided by clinical response (1D); source control with attention to the balance of risks and benefits of the chosen method (1C); administration of either crystalloid or colloid fluid resuscitation (1B); fluid challenge to restore mean circulating filling pressure (1C); reduction in rate of fluid administration with rising filing pressures and no improvement in tissue perfusion (1D); vasopressor preference for norepinephrine or dopamine to maintain an initial target of mean arterial pressure > or = 65 mm Hg (1C); dobutamine inotropic therapy when cardiac output remains low despite fluid resuscitation and combined inotropic/vasopressor therapy (1C); stress-dose steroid therapy given only in septic shock after blood pressure is identified to be poorly responsive to fluid and vasopressor therapy (2C); recombinant activated protein C in patients with severe sepsis and clinical assessment of high risk for death (2B except 2C for postoperative patients). In the absence of tissue hypoperfusion, coronary artery disease, or acute hemorrhage, target a hemoglobin of 7-9 g/dL (1B); a low tidal volume (1B) and limitation of inspiratory plateau pressure strategy (1C) for acute lung injury (ALI)/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); application of at least a minimal amount of positive end-expiratory pressure in acute lung injury (1C); head of bed elevation in mechanically ventilated patients unless contraindicated (1B); avoiding routine use of pulmonary artery catheters in ALI/ARDS (1A); to decrease days of mechanical ventilation and ICU length of stay, a conservative fluid strategy for patients with established ALI/ARDS who are not in shock (1C); protocols for weaning and sedation/analgesia (1B); using either intermittent bolus sedation or continuous infusion sedation with daily interruptions or lightening (1B); avoidance of neuromuscular blockers, if at all possible (1B); institution of glycemic control (1B), targeting a blood glucose < 150 mg/dL after initial stabilization (2C); equivalency of continuous veno-veno hemofiltration or intermittent hemodialysis (2B); prophylaxis for deep vein thrombosis (1A); use of stress ulcer prophylaxis to prevent upper gastrointestinal bleeding using H2 blockers (1A) or proton pump inhibitors (1B); and consideration of limitation of support where appropriate (1D). Recommendations specific to pediatric severe sepsis include greater use of physical examination therapeutic end points (2C); dopamine as the first drug of choice for hypotension (2C); steroids only in children with suspected or proven adrenal insufficiency (2C); and a recommendation against the use of recombinant activated protein C in children (1B). CONCLUSIONS: There was strong agreement among a large cohort of international experts regarding many level 1 recommendations for the best current care of patients with severe sepsis. Evidenced-based recommendations regarding the acute management of sepsis and septic shock are the first step toward improved outcomes for this important group of critically ill patients.

99mTc-sestamibi imaging and bone marrow karyotyping in the assessment of multiple myeloma and MGUS

AIM: The first pathogenetic step in multiple myeloma is the emergence of a limited number of clonal plasma cells, clinically known as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Patients with MGUS do not have symptoms or end-organ damage but they do have a 1% annual risk of progression to multiple myeloma or related malignant disorders. With progression of MGUS to multiple myeloma, complex genetic events occur in the neoplastic plasma cell. Karyotyping and fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) were shown to be of prognostic value in patients with multiple myeloma. Tc-sestamibi imaging reflects myeloma disease activity in bone marrow with very high sensitivity and specificity predicting disease evolution. This study was undertaken to evaluate the role of Tc-sestamibi imaging and cytogenetic analysis in prognosis prediction of MGUS and multiple myeloma. METHODS: We enrolled 30 consecutive patients with a confirmed diagnosis of multiple myeloma or MGUS. Bone marrow biopsy and biochemical staging according to the International Staging System (ISS) were performed in all cases. Karyotype analysis and FISH were performed in 11 of 12 patients with MGUS and in 17 of 18 patients with multiple myeloma having adequate metaphases. RESULTS: The karyotype was abnormal in four of 11 MGUS and in six of 17 multiple myeloma. Abnormalities of chromosome 13 were present in one case of MGUS and in six cases of multiple myeloma whereas the involvement of immunoglobulin was observed in one case of multiple myeloma. An abnormal FISH panel was found in four MGUS and nine multiple myeloma patients. All patients with MGUS showed a normal MIBI scan (score 0). Among patients with multiple myeloma only three, all with ISS stage I, showed a normal scan while a positive scan was obtained in others (score range, 1-7). The MIBI uptake was strongly related to the bone marrow plasma cell infiltration and to cytogenetic abnormalities. Particularly, a MIBI uptake score above 5 identified patients with poor prognosis encompassing all stage III multiple myeloma and three of seven stage II multiple myeloma. On the other hand all stage I and II patients having a MIBI score less than 5 showed a good prognosis. CONCLUSION: Both cytogenetic analysis and a MIBI scan add no relevant prognostic information to the ISS in patients with stage I and III multiple myeloma. The MIBI scan was of prognostic value in stage II multiple myeloma patients. Additionally, MIBI imaging may be useful to guide bone marrow biopsy in order to obtain adequate samples for cytogenetic analysis.

Emissions distribution in post-Kyoto international negotiations: a policy

An abundant scientific literature about climate change economics points out that the future participation of developing countries in international environmental policies will depend on their amount of pay offs inside and outside specific agreements. These studies are aimed at analyzing coalitions stability typically through a game theoretical approach. Though these contributions represent a corner stone in the research field investigating future plausible international coalitions and the reasons behind the difficulties incurred over time to implement emissions stabilizing actions, they cannot disentangle satisfactorily the role that equality play in inducing poor regions to tackle global warming. If we focus on the Stern Review findings stressing that climate change will generate heavy damages and policy actions will be costly in a finite time horizon, we understand why there is a great incentive to free ride in order to exploit benefits from emissions reduction efforts of others. The reluctance of poor countries in joining international agreements is mainly supported by historical responsibility of rich regions in generating atmospheric carbon concentration, whereas rich countries claim that emissions stabilizing policies will be effective only when developing countries will join them.Scholars recently outline that a perceived fairness in the distribution of emissions would facilitate a wide spread participation in international agreements. In this paper we overview the literature about distributional aspects of emissions by focusing on those contributions investigating past trends of emissions distribution through empirical data and future trajectories through simulations obtained by integrated assessment models. We will explain methodologies used to elaborate data and the link between real data and those coming from simulations. Results from this strand of research will be interpreted in order to discuss future negotiations for post Kyoto agreements that will be the focus of the next. Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen at the end of 2009. A particular attention will be devoted to the role that technological change will play in affecting the distribution of emissions over time and to how spillovers and experience diffusion could influence equality issues and future outcomes of policy negotiations.

Updated response assessment criteria for high-grade gliomas: response assessment in neuro-oncology working group.

Currently, the most widely used criteria for assessing response to therapy in high-grade gliomas are based on two-dimensional tumor measurements on computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), in conjunction with clinical assessment and corticosteroid dose (the Macdonald Criteria). It is increasingly apparent that there are significant limitations to these criteria, which only address the contrast-enhancing component of the tumor. For example, chemoradiotherapy for newly diagnosed glioblastomas results in transient increase in tumor enhancement (pseudoprogression) in 20% to 30% of patients, which is difficult to differentiate from true tumor progression. Antiangiogenic agents produce high radiographic response rates, as defined by a rapid decrease in contrast enhancement on CT/MRI that occurs within days of initiation of treatment and that is partly a result of reduced vascular permeability to contrast agents rather than a true antitumor effect. In addition, a subset of patients treated with antiangiogenic agents develop tumor recurrence characterized by an increase in the nonenhancing component depicted on T2-weighted/fluid-attenuated inversion recovery sequences. The recognition that contrast enhancement is nonspecific and may not always be a true surrogate of tumor response and the need to account for the nonenhancing component of the tumor mandate that new criteria be developed and validated to permit accurate assessment of the efficacy of novel therapies. The Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology Working Group is an international effort to develop new standardized response criteria for clinical trials in brain tumors. In this proposal, we present the recommendations for updated response criteria for high-grade gliomas.

Foot worn inertial sensors for gait assessment and rehabilitation based on motorized shoes.

Fall prevention in elderly subjects is often based on training and rehabilitation programs that include mostly traditional balance and strength exercises. By applying such conventional interventions to improve gait performance and decrease fall risk, some important factors are neglected such as the dynamics of the gait and the motor learning processes. The EU project "Self Mobility Improvement in the eLderly by counteractING falls" (SMILING project) aimed to improve age-related gait and balance performance by using unpredicted external perturbations during walking through motorized shoes that change insole inclination at each stance. This paper describes the shoe-worn inertial module and the gait analysis method needed to control in real-time the shoe insole inclination during training, as well as gait spatio-temporal parameters obtained during long distance walking before and after the 8-week training program that assessed the efficacy of training with these motorized shoes.

International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) Consensus Conference on Handling and Staging of Radical Prostatectomy Specimens. Working group 5: surgical margins.

The 2009 International Society of Urological Pathology Consensus Conference in Boston, made recommendations regarding the standardization of pathology reporting of radical prostatectomy specimens. Issues relating to surgical margin assessment were coordinated by working group 5. Pathologists agreed that tumor extending close to the 'capsular' margin, yet not to it, should be reported as a negative margin, and that locations of positive margins should be indicated as either posterior, posterolateral, lateral, anterior at the prostatic apex, mid-prostate or base. Other items of consensus included specifying the extent of any positive margin as millimeters of involvement; tumor in skeletal muscle at the apical perpendicular margin section, in the absence of accompanying benign glands, to be considered organ confined; and that proximal and distal margins be uniformly referred to as bladder neck and prostatic apex, respectively. Grading of tumor at positive margins was to be left to the discretion of the reporting pathologists. There was no consensus as to how the surgical margin should be regarded when tumor is present at the inked edge of the tissue, in the absence of transected benign glands at the apical margin. Pathologists also did not achieve agreement on the reporting approach to benign prostatic glands at an inked surgical margin in which no carcinoma is present.

Conflict, Peace and Security in Africa: an Assessment and New Questions After 50 Years of African Independence

Since the independence processes in the African continent, armed conflicts, peace and security have raised concern and attention both at the domestic level and at the international scale. In recent years, all aspects have undergone significant changes which have given rise to intense debate. The end of some historical conflicts has taken place in a context of slight decrease in the number of armed conflicts and the consolidation of post-conflict reconstruction processes. Moreover, African regional organizations have staged an increasingly more active internal shift in matters related to peace and security, encouraged by the idea of promoting “African solutions to African problems”. This new scenario, has been accompanied by new uncertainties at the security level and major challenges at the operational level, especially for the African Union. This article aims to ascertain the state of affairs on all these issues and raise some key questions to consider.

Data bases for the assessment of medical technologies: examples from Europe.

The assessment of medical technologies has to answer several questions ranging from safety and effectiveness to complex economical, social, and health policy issues. The type of data needed to carry out such evaluation depends on the specific questions to be answered, as well as on the stage of development of a technology. Basically two types of data may be distinguished: (a) general demographic, administrative, or financial data which has been collected not specifically for technology assessment; (b) the data collected with respect either to a specific technology or to a disease or medical problem. On the basis of a pilot inquiry in Europe and bibliographic research, the following categories of type (b) data bases have been identified: registries, clinical data bases, banks of factual and bibliographic knowledge, and expert systems. Examples of each category are discussed briefly. The following aims for further research and practical goals are proposed: criteria for the minimal data set required, improvement to the registries and clinical data banks, and development of an international clearinghouse to enhance information diffusion on both existing data bases and available reports on medical technology assessments.

Appropriate treatment for Crohn's disease: methodology and summary results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel approach--EPACT.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: For many therapeutic decisions in Crohn's disease (CD), high-grade evidence is lacking. To assist clinical decision-making, explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria were developed by an international, multidisciplinary expert panel. METHODS: 10 gastroenterologists, 3 surgeons and 2 general practitioners from 12 European countries assessed the appropriateness of therapy for CD using the RAND Appropriateness Method. Their assessment was based on the study of a recent literature review of the subject, combined with their own expert clinical judgment. Panelists rated clinical indications and treatment options using a 9-point scale (1 = extremely inappropriate; 9 = extremely appropriate). These scenarios were then discussed in detail at the panel meeting and re-rated. Median ratings and disagreement were used to aggregate ratings into three assessment categories: appropriate (A), uncertain (U) and inappropriate (I). RESULTS: 569 specific indications were rated, dealing with 9 clinical presentations: mild/moderate luminal CD (n = 104), severe CD (n = 126), steroid-dependent CD (n = 25), steroid-refractory CD (n = 37), fistulizing CD (n = 49), fibrostenotic CD (n = 35), maintenance of medical remission of CD (n = 84), maintenance of surgical remission (n = 78), drug safety in pregnancy (n = 24) and use of infliximab (n = 7). Overall, 146 indications (26%) were judged appropriate, 129 (23%) uncertain and 294 (52%) inappropriate. Frank disagreement was low (14% overall) with the greatest disagreement (54% of scenarios) being observed for treatment of steroid-refractory disease. CONCLUSIONS: Detailed explicit appropriateness criteria for the appropriate use of therapy for CD were developed for the first time by a European expert panel. Disease location, severity and previous treatments were the main factors taken into account. User-friendly access to EPACT criteria is available via an Internet site, www.epact.ch, allowing prospective evaluation and improvement of appropriateness of current CD therapy.

Daily physical activity assessment: what is the importance of upper limb movements vs whole body movements?

OBJECTIVE: The movement of the upper limbs (eg fidgeting-like activities) is a meaningful component of nonexercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT). This study examined the relationship between upper limb movements and whole body trunk movements, by simultaneously measuring energy expenditure during the course of the day. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study consisting of 88 subjects with a wide range in body mass index (17.3-32.5 kg/m(2)). The energy expenditure over a 24-h period was measured in a large respiratory chamber. The body movements were assessed by two uniaxial-accelerometers during daytime, one on the waist and the other on the dominant arm. The accelerometry scores from level 0 (=immobile) up to level 9 (=maximal intensity) were recorded. The activities of subjects were classified into eight categories: walking at two speeds on a horizontal treadmill (A & B), ambling (C), self-care tasks (D), desk work (E), meals (F), reading (G), watching TV (H). RESULTS: There was a significant relationship between the accelerometry scores from the waist (ACwaist) and that from the wrist (ACwrist) over the daytime period (R(2)=0.64; P<0.001). The ACwrist was systematically higher than the ACwaist during sedentary activities, whereas it was the reverse for walking activities. ACwrist to ACwaist ratio of activities E-H were above 1.0 and for walking activities (A-C) were below 1.0. A multiple regression analysis for predicting daytime energy expenditure revealed that the explained variance improved by 2% only when the ACwrist was added as a second predictor in addition to the ACwaist. This indicates that the effect of the ACwrist for predicting energy expenditure was of limited importance in our conditions of measurement. CONCLUSIONS: The acceleration of the upper limbs which includes fidgeting is more elevated than that of the whole body for sitting/lying down activities. However, their contribution to energy expenditure is lower than whole body trunk movements, thus indicating that the weight-bearing locomotion activities may be a key component of NEAT. However, its contribution may depend on the total duration of the upper limb movements during the course of the day.

Quantitative ultrasound of the heel and fracture risk assessment: an updated meta-analysis.

Meta-analysis of prospective studies shows that quantitative ultrasound of the heel using validated devices predicts risk of different types of fracture with similar performance across different devices and in elderly men and women. These predictions are independent of the risk estimates from hip DXA measures.Introduction Clinical utilisation of heel quantitative ultrasound (QUS) depends on its power to predict clinical fractures. This is particularly important in settings that have no access to DXA-derived bone density measurements. We aimed to assess the predictive power of heel QUS for fractures using a meta-analysis approach.Methods We conducted an inverse variance random effects meta-analysis of prospective studies with heel QUS measures at baseline and fracture outcomes in their follow-up. Relative risks (RR) per standard deviation (SD) of different QUS parameters (broadband ultrasound attenuation [BUA], speed of sound [SOS], stiffness index [SI], and quantitative ultrasound index [QUI]) for various fracture outcomes (hip, vertebral, any clinical, any osteoporotic and major osteoporotic fractures) were reported based on study questions.Results Twenty-one studies including 55,164 women and 13,742 men were included in the meta-analysis with a total follow-up of 279,124 person-years. All four QUS parameters were associated with risk of different fracture. For instance, RR of hip fracture for 1 SD decrease of BUA was 1.69 (95% CI 1.43-2.00), SOS was 1.96 (95% CI 1.64-2.34), SI was 2.26 (95%CI 1.71-2.99) and QUI was 1.99 (95% CI 1.49-2.67). There was marked heterogeneity among studies on hip and any clinical fractures but no evidence of publication bias amongst them. Validated devices from different manufacturers predicted fracture risks with similar performance (meta-regression p values > 0.05 for difference of devices). QUS measures predicted fracture with a similar performance in men and women. Meta-analysis of studies with QUS measures adjusted for hip BMD showed a significant and independent association with fracture risk (RR/SD for BUA = 1.34 [95%CI 1.22-1.49]).Conclusions This study confirms that heel QUS, using validated devices, predicts risk of different fracture outcomes in elderly men and women. Further research is needed for more widespread utilisation of the heel QUS in clinical settings across the world.

Rehabilitation needs assessment in persons with spinal cord injury following the 2010 earthquake in Haiti: a pilot study using an ICF-based tool.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this pilot study was to describe problems in functioning and associated rehabilitation needs in persons with spinal cord injury after the 2010 earthquake in Haiti by applying a newly developed tool based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). DESIGN: Pilot study. SUBJECTS: Eighteen persons with spinal cord injury (11 women, 7 men) participated in the needs assessment. Eleven patients had complete lesions (American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale; AIS A), one patient had tetraplegia. METHODS: Data collection included information from the International Spinal Cord Injury Core Data Set and a newly developed needs assessment tool based on ICF Core Sets. This tool assesses the level of functioning, the corresponding rehabilitation need, and required health professional. Data were summarized using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: In body functions and body structures, patients showed typical problems following spinal cord injury. Nearly all patients showed limitations and restrictions in their activities and participation related to mobility, self-care and aspects of social integration. Several environmental factors presented barriers to these limitations and restrictions. However, the availability of products and social support were identified as facilitators. Rehabilitation needs were identified in nearly all aspects of functioning. To address these needs, a multidisciplinary approach would be needed. CONCLUSION: This ICF-based needs assessment provided useful information for rehabilitation planning in the context of natural disaster. Future studies are required to test and, if necessary, adapt the assessment.