Some novel techniques of parameter estimation for the dynamical models in biological systems

Inverse problems based on using experimental data to estimate unknown parameters of a system often arise in biological and chaotic systems. In this paper, we consider parameter estimation in systems biology involving linear and non-linear complex dynamical models, including the Michaelis–Menten enzyme kinetic system, a dynamical model of competence induction in Bacillus subtilis bacteria and a model of feedback bypass in B. subtilis bacteria. We propose some novel techniques for inverse problems. Firstly, we establish an approximation of a non-linear differential algebraic equation that corresponds to the given biological systems. Secondly, we use the Picard contraction mapping, collage methods and numerical integration techniques to convert the parameter estimation into a minimization problem of the parameters. We propose two optimization techniques: a grid approximation method and a modified hybrid Nelder–Mead simplex search and particle swarm optimization (MH-NMSS-PSO) for non-linear parameter estimation. The two techniques are used for parameter estimation in a model of competence induction in B. subtilis bacteria with noisy data. The MH-NMSS-PSO scheme is applied to a dynamical model of competence induction in B. subtilis bacteria based on experimental data and the model for feedback bypass. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Train service timetabling in railway open markets by particle swarm optimisation

Railway timetabling is an important process in train service provision as it matches the transportation demand with the infrastructure capacity while customer satisfaction is also considered. It is a multi-objective optimisation problem, in which a feasible solution, rather than the optimal one, is usually taken in practice because of the time constraint. The quality of services may suffer as a result. In a railway open market, timetabling usually involves rounds of negotiations among a number of self-interested and independent stakeholders and hence additional objectives and constraints are imposed on the timetabling problem. While the requirements of all stakeholders are taken into consideration simultaneously, the computation demand is inevitably immense. Intelligent solution-searching techniques provide a possible solution. This paper attempts to employ a particle swarm optimisation (PSO) approach to devise a railway timetable in an open market. The suitability and performance of PSO are studied on a multi-agent-based railway open-market negotiation simulation platform.

Velocity-jump models with crowding effects

Velocity jump processes are discrete random walk models that have many applications including the study of biological and ecological collective motion. In particular, velocity jump models are often used to represent a type of persistent motion, known as a “run and tumble”, which is exhibited by some isolated bacteria cells. All previous velocity jump processes are non-interacting, which means that crowding effects and agent-to-agent interactions are neglected. By neglecting these agent-to-agent interactions, traditional velocity jump models are only applicable to very dilute systems. Our work is motivated by the fact that many applications in cell biology, such as wound healing, cancer invasion and development, often involve tissues that are densely packed with cells where cell-to-cell contact and crowding effects can be important. To describe these kinds of high cell density problems using a velocity jump process we introduce three different classes of crowding interactions into a one-dimensional model. Simulation data and averaging arguments lead to a suite of continuum descriptions of the interacting velocity jump processes. We show that the resulting systems of hyperbolic partial differential equations predict the mean behavior of the stochastic simulations very well.

Vertical particle concentration profiles around urban office buildings

Despite its role in determining both indoor and outdoor human exposure to anthropogenic particles, there is limited information describing vertical profiles of particle concentrations in urban environments, especially for ultrafine particles. Furthermore, the results of the few studies performed have been inconsistent. As such, this study aimed to assess the influence of vehicle emissions and nucleation formation on particle characteristics (particle number size distribution-PNSD and PM 2.5 concentration) at different heights around three urban office buildings located next to busy roads in Brisbane, Australia, and place these results in the broader context of the existing literature. Two sets of instruments were used to simultaneously measure PNSD, particle number (PN) and PM 2.5 concentrations, respectively, for up to three weeks at each building. The results showed that both PNSD and PM 2.5 concentration around building envelopes were influenced by vehicle emissions and new particle formation, and that they exhibited variability across the three different office buildings. During nucleation events, PN concentration in size range of <30 nm and total PN concentration increased (7-65% and 5-46%, respectively), while PM 2.5 concentration decreased (36-52%) with height. This study has shown an under acknowledged role for nucleation in producing particles that can affect large numbers of people, due to the high density and occupancy of urban office buildings and the fact that the vast majority of people's time is spent indoors. These findings highlight important new information related to the previously overlooked role of particle formation in the urban atmosphere and its potential effects on selection of air intake locations and appropriate filter types when designing or upgrading mechanical ventilation systems in urban office buildings. The results also serve to better define particle behaviour and variability around building envelopes, which has implications for studies of both human exposure and particle dynamics. © 2012 Author(s).

Influence of filtration on I/O particle concentration ratios at urban office buildings

Epidemiological research has consistently shown an association between fine and ultrafine particle concentrations, and increases in both respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. These particles, often found in vehicle emissions outside buildings, can penetrate inside via their envelopes and mechanically ventilated systems. Indoor activities such as printing, cooking and cleaning, as well as the movement of building occupants are also an additional source of these particles. In this context, the filtration systems of mechanically ventilated buildings can reduce indoor particle concentrations. Several studies have quantified the efficiency of dry-media and electrostatic filters, but they mainly focused on the particle size range > 300 nm. Some others studied ultrafine particles but their investigations were conducted in laboratories. At this point, there is still only limited information on in situ filter efficiency and an incomplete understanding of filtration influence on I/O ratios of particle concentrations. To help address these gaps in knowledge and provide new information for the selection of appropriate filter types in office building HVAC systems, we aimed to: (1) measure particle concentrations at up and down stream flows of filter devices, as well as outdoor and indoor office buildings; (2) quantify efficiency of different filter types at different buildings; and (3) assess the impact of these filters on I/O ratios at different indoor and outdoor source operation scenarios.

Transmission system expansion planning considering combined operation of wind farms and energy storage systems

An energy storage system (ESS) can provide ancillary services such as frequency regulation and reserves, as well as smooth the fluctuations of wind power outputs, and hence improve the security and economics of the power system concerned. The combined operation of a wind farm and an ESS has become a widely accepted operating mode. Hence, it appears necessary to consider this operating mode in transmission system expansion planning, and this is an issue to be systematically addressed in this work. Firstly, the relationship between the cost of the NaS based ESS and its discharging cycle life is analyzed. A strategy for the combined operation of a wind farm and an ESS is next presented, so as to have a good compromise between the operating cost of the ESS and the smoothing effect of the fluctuation of wind power outputs. Then, a transmission system expansion planning model is developed with the sum of the transmission investment costs, the investment and operating costs of ESSs and the punishment cost of lost wind energy as the objective function to be minimized. An improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is employed to solve the developed planning model. Finally, the essential features of the developed model and adopted algorithm are demonstrated by 18-bus and 46-bus test systems.

Multidisciplinary design and flight testing of a remote gas/particle airborne sensor system

The main objective of this paper is to describe the development of a remote sensing airborne air sampling system for Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and provide the capability for the detection of particle and gas concentrations in real time over remote locations. The design of the air sampling methodology started by defining system architecture, and then by selecting and integrating each subsystem. A multifunctional air sampling instrument, with capability for simultaneous measurement of particle and gas concentrations was modified and integrated with ARCAA’s Flamingo UAS platform and communications protocols. As result of the integration process, a system capable of both real time geo-location monitoring and indexed-link sampling was obtained. Wind tunnel tests were conducted in order to evaluate the performance of the air sampling instrument in controlled nonstationary conditions at the typical operational velocities of the UAS platform. Once the remote fully operative air sampling system was obtained, the problem of mission design was analyzed through the simulation of different scenarios. Furthermore, flight tests of the complete air sampling system were then conducted to check the dynamic characteristics of the UAS with the air sampling system and to prove its capability to perform an air sampling mission following a specific flight path.

Factors affecting timely completion of a PhD : a complex systems approach

Completing a PhD on time is a complex process, influenced by many interacting factors. In this paper we take a Bayesian Network approach to analyzing the factors perceived to be important in achieving this aim. Focusing on a single research group in Mathematical Sciences, we develop a conceptual model to describe the factors considered to be important to students and then quantify the network based on five individual perspectives: the students, a supervisor and a university research students centre manager. The resultant network comprised 37 factors and 40 connections, with an overall probability of timely completion of between 0.6 and 0.8. Across all participants, the four factors that were considered to most directly influence timely completion were personal aspects, the research environment, the research project, and incoming skills.

Interacting constraints shape emergent decision-making of referees

How and why football referees made decisions was investigated. A constructivist grounded theory methodology was undertaken to tap into the experiential knowledge of referees. The participant cohort comprised 7 A-League referees (aged 23 to 35) and 8 local Brisbane league referees (aged 20 to 50), spanning the lowest to highest levels of competition in men’s football in Australia. Results found that referees used ‘four pillars’ to underpin their judgments, these were conceptual notions of: safety, fairness, accuracy and entertainment. A fifth pillar ‘consistency’ referred to the referee’s ‘contextual sensitivity’. Results were explained using an ecological dynamics framework that emphasises the individual-environment scale of analysis. It was concluded that interacting constraints shape emergent decision-making in referees which are nested in task goals.

Influence of ventilation and filtration on indoor particle concentrations in urban office buildings

This study aimed to quantify the efficiency of deep bag and electrostatic filters, and assess the influence of ventilation systems using these filters on indoor fine (<2.5 µm) and ultrafine particle concentrations in commercial office buildings. Measurements and modelling were conducted for different indoor and outdoor particle source scenarios at three office buildings in Brisbane, Australia. Overall, the in-situ efficiency, measured for particles in size ranges 6 to 3000 nm, of the deep bag filters ranged from 26.3 to 46.9% for the three buildings, while the in-situ efficiency of the electrostatic filter in one building was 60.2%. The highest PN and PM2.5 concentrations in one of the office buildings (up to 131% and 31% higher than the other two buildings, respectively) were due to the proximity of the building’s HVAC air intakes to a nearby bus-only roadway, as well as its higher outdoor ventilation rate. The lowest PN and PM2.5 concentrations (up to 57% and 24% lower than the other two buildings, respectively) were measured in a building that utilised both outdoor and mixing air filters in its HVAC system. Indoor PN concentrations were strongly influenced by outdoor levels and were significantly higher during rush-hours (up to 41%) and nucleation events (up to 57%), compared to working-hours, for all three buildings. This is the first time that the influence of new particle formation on indoor particle concentrations has been identified and quantified. A dynamic model for indoor PN concentration, which performed adequately in this study also revealed that using mixing/outdoor air filters can significantly reduce indoor particle concentration in buildings where indoor air was strongly influenced by outdoor particle levels. This work provides a scientific basis for the selection and location of appropriate filters and outdoor air intakes, during the design of new, or upgrade of existing, building HVAC systems. The results also serve to provide a better understanding of indoor particle dynamics and behaviours under different ventilation and particle source scenarios, and highlight effective methods to reduce exposure to particles in commercial office buildings.

What is an expert? A systems perspective on expertise

1. Expert knowledge continues to gain recognition as a valuable source of information in a wide range of research applications. Despite recent advances in defining expert knowledge, comparatively little attention has been given to how to view expertise as a system of interacting contributory factors, and thereby, to quantify an individual’s expertise. 2. We present a systems approach to describing expertise that accounts for many contributing factors and their interrelationships, and allows quantification of an individual’s expertise. A Bayesian network (BN) was chosen for this purpose. For the purpose of illustration, we focused on taxonomic expertise. The model structure was developed in consultation with professional taxonomists. The relative importance of the factors within the network were determined by a second set of senior taxonomists. This second set of experts (i.e. supra-experts) also provided validation of the model structure. Model performance was then assessed by applying the model to hypothetical career states in the discipline of taxonomy. Hypothetical career states were used to incorporate the greatest possible differences in career states and provide an opportunity to test the model against known inputs. 3. The resulting BN model consisted of 18 primary nodes feeding through one to three higher-order nodes before converging on the target node (Taxonomic Expert). There was strong consistency among node weights provided by the supra-experts for some nodes, but not others. The higher order nodes, “Quality of work” and “Total productivity”, had the greatest weights. Sensitivity analysis indicated that although some factors had stronger influence in the outer nodes of the network, there was relatively equal influence of the factors leading directly into the target node. Despite differences in the node weights provided by our supra-experts, there was remarkably good agreement among assessments of our hypothetical experts that accurately reflected differences we had built into them. 4. This systems approach provides a novel way of assessing the overall level of expertise of individuals, accounting for multiple contributory factors, and their interactions. Our approach is adaptable to other situations where it is desirable to understand components of expertise.

Simulation of Au particle interaction on graphene sheets

The interaction of Au particles with few layer graphene is of interest for the formation of the next generation of sensing devices(1). In this paper we investigate the coupling of single gold nanoparticles to a graphene sheet, and multiple gold nanoparticles with a graphene sheet using COMSOL Multiphysics. By using these simulations we are able to determine the electric field strength and associated hot-spots for various gold nanoparticle-graphene systems. The Au nanoparticles were modelled as 8 nm diameter spheres on 1.5 nm thick (5 layers) graphene, with properties of graphene obtained from the refractive index data of Weber(2) and the Au refractive index data from Palik(3). The field was incident along the plane of the sheet with polarisation tested for both s and p. The study showed strong localised interaction between the Au and graphene with limited spread; however the double particle case where the graphene sheet separated two Au nanoparticles showed distinct interaction between the particles and graphene. An offset was introduced (up to 4 nm) resulting in much reduced coupling between the opposed particles as the distance apart increased. Findings currently suggest that the graphene layer has limited interaction with incident fields with a single particle present whilst reducing the coupling region to a very fine area when opposing particles are involved. It is hoped that the results of this research will provide insight into graphene-plasmon interactions and spur the development of the next generation of sensing devices.

Numerical simulations of particle deposition in metal foam heat exchangers

Australia is a high-potential country for geothermal power with reserves currently estimated in the tens of millions of petajoules, enough to power the nation for at least 1000 years at current usage. However, these resources are mainly located in isolated arid regions where water is scarce. Therefore, wet cooling systems for geothermal plants in Australia are the least attractive solution and thus air-cooled heat exchangers are preferred. In order to increase the efficiency of such heat exchangers, metal foams have been used. One issue raised by this solution is the fouling caused by dust deposition. In this case, the heat transfer characteristics of the metal foam heat exchanger can dramatically deteriorate. Exploring the particle deposition property in the metal foam exchanger becomes crucial. This paper is a numerical investigation aimed to address this issue. Two dimensional (2D) numerical simulations of a standard one-row tube bundle wrapped with metal foam in cross-flow are performed and highlight preferential particle deposition areas.

Numerical simulations of particle deposition in metal foam heat exchangers

Australia is a high potential country for geothermal power with reserves currently estimated in the tens of millions of petajoules, enough to power the nation for at least 1000 years at current usage.However, these resources are mainly located in isolated arid regions where water is scarce. Therefore, wet cooling systems for geothermal plants in Australia are the least attractive solution and thus air-cooled heat exchangers are preferred. In order to increase the efficiency of such heat exchangers, metal foams have been used. One issue raised by this solution is the fouling caused by dust deposition. In this case, the heat transfer characteristics of the metal foam heat exchanger can dramatically deteriorate. Exploring the particle deposition property in the metal foam exchanger becomes crucial. This paper is a numerical investigation aimed to address this issue. Two-dimensional(2D numerical simulations of a standard one-row tube bundle wrapped with metal foam in cross-flow are performed and highlight preferential particle deposition areas.