O emprego na transição para uma economia verde: cenários para o Brasil com base no consumo de energia pela indústria

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Potential Economic Damage From Introduction of Brown Tree Snakes, Boiga Irregularis (Reptilia: Colubridae), to The Islands Of Hawai‘i

The Brown Tree Snake (Boiga irregularis) has caused ecological and economic damage to Guam, and the snake has the potential to colonize other islands in the Pacific Ocean. This study quantifies the potential economic damage if the snake were translocated, established in the state of Hawaii, and causing damage at levels similar to those on Guam. Damages modeled included costs of medical treatments due to snakebites, snake-caused power outages, and decreased tourism resulting from effects of the snake. Damage caused by presence of the Brown Tree Snake on Guam was used as a guide to estimate potential economic damage to Hawaii from both medical- and power outage–related damage. To predict tourism impact, a survey was administered to Hawaiian tourists that identified tourist responses to potential effects of the Brown Tree Snake. These results were then used in an input-output model to predict damage to the state economy. Summing these damages resulted in an estimated total potential annual damage to Hawaii of between $593 million and $2.14 billion. This economic analysis provides a range of potential damages that policy makers can use in evaluation of future prevention and control programs.

Fragmentação geopolítica: uma análise estrutural das propostas de separatismo no Brasil

Este trabalho tem por objetivo dar luz ao debate sobre a criação dos novos entes federativos, trazendo elementos objetivos sobre a caracterização socioeconômica dos novos espaços geopolíticos e seus respectivos papéis no novo contexto espacial do sistema inter-regional brasileiro. O artigo traz resultados inéditos para a discussão, buscando, inicialmente, identificar padrões hierárquicos e de dependência espacial e produtiva neste novo contexto federativo. Tais resultados subsidiama analise subsequente dos impactos da nova configuração das transferências constitucionais, que identifica pormeio de simulações comummodelo inter-regional de insumo-produto especialmente calibrado para as 33 regiões consideradas no estudo, não apenas os potenciais ganhadores e perdedores, mas também os mecanismos de interação espacial subjacentes a estes processos.

Measuring smile curves in global value chains

The concept and logic of the "smile curve" in the context of global value chains has been widely used and discussed at the individual firm level, but rarely identified and investigated at the country and industry levels by using real data. This paper proposes an idea, based on an inter-country input-output model, to consistently measure both the strength and length of linkages between producers and consumers along global value chains. This idea allows for better identification and mapping of smile curves for countries and industries according to their positions and degrees of participation in a given conceptual value chain. Using the 1995-2011 World Input-Output Tables, several conceptual value chains are investigated, including exports of electrical and optical equipment from China and Mexico and exports of automobiles from Japan and Germany. The identified smile curves provide a very intuitive and visual image, which can significantly improve our understanding of the roles played by different countries and industries in global value chains. Further, the smile curves help identify the benefits gained by these countries and industries through their participation in global trade.

Impact of introducing longer and heavier vehicles on regional consumer price index and Spanish road freight transport system

This paper applies an integrated modeling approach to the case of Spain; the approach is based on a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model for assessing the effect of introducing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) on the regional consumer price index (CPI) and on the transportation system. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHV allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have direct and indirect effects on the economy and on the transportation system. Results show that the introduction of LHVs might reduce prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services in the regions of Spain and would also lead to a reduction in the regional CPI. In addition, the magnitude and extent of changes in the transportation system are estimated by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect of traffic changes on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network.

An integrated modeling approach to assess the impact on road freight transport demand of allowing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) in Spain

The assessment on introducing Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) on the road freight transport demand is performed in this paper by applying an integrated modeling approach composed of a Random Utility-Based Multiregional Input-Output model (RUBMRIO) and a road transport network model. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHVs allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have both direct and indirect effects on the road freight transport system. In addition, we estimate the magnitude and extent of demand changes in the road freight transportation system by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network of Spain by considering a sensitivity analysis of the main parameters which determine the share of Heavy-Goods Vehicles (HGVs) and LHVs. The results show that the introduction of LHVs will strengthen the competitiveness of the road haulage sector by reducing costs, emissions, and the total freight vehicles required.

The Social and Economic Impacts of a Washington State Carbon Tax

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Application of Monte Carlo simulations to identify an appropriate dosage strategy for patients receiving a continuous intravenous infusion of enoxaparin

Aim: To identify an appropriate dosage strategy for patients receiving enoxaparin by continuous intravenous infusion (CII). Methods: Monte Carlo simulations were performed in NONMEM, (200 replicates of 1000 patients) to predict steady state anti-Xa concentrations (Css) for patients receiving a CII of enoxaparin. The covariate distribution model was simulated based on covariate demographics in the CII study population. The impact of patient weight, renal function (creatinine clearance (CrCL)) and patient location (intensive care unit (ICU)) were evaluated. A population pharmacokinetic model was used as the input-output model (1-compartment first order output model with mixed residual error structure). Success of a dosing regimen was based on the percent of Css that is between the therapeutic range of 0.5 IU/ml to 1.2 IU/ml. Results: The best dose for patients in the ICU was 4.2IU/kg/h (success mean 64.8% and 90% prediction interval (PI): 60.1–69.8%) if CrCL60ml/min, the best dose was 8.3IU/kg/h (success mean 65.4%, 90% PI: 58.5–73.2%). Simulations suggest that there was a 50% improvement in the success of the CII if the dose rate for ICU patients with CrCL

The use of expert manpower in health and safety in France

The thesis examines the system of occupational health and safety in France. It analyses the use of expert manpower in the field with a view to establishing the possibility of a profession in health and safety. An input-output model is developed to bring together the necessary elements of prevention of accidents and occupational diseases. The role of institutions concerned with health and safety is analysed with reference to this model. The research establishes the need for a health and safety specialist role. The recognition and status of this role are found to be subject to other criteria including the acceptance by institutions of such a specialist role. The model is also used to define the role of this specialist as expected by the various institutions intervening in the field.

Sensitivity Analysis of Some Applied Probability Models

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: Primary 90C31. Secondary 62C12, 62P05, 93C41.

Viability Theory and Economic Modeling

A brief introduction into the theory of differential inclusions, viability theory and selections of set valued mappings is presented. As an application the implicit scheme of the Leontief dynamic input-output model is considered.

Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on Regional Tourism Industry and Economy

The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as an empirical study, and the negative change in visitor expenditure between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model appears to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some exploratory efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on a Regional Tourism Industry and Economy

The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as an empirical study, and the negative change in visitor expenditure between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model appears to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some exploratory efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Distributed Extremum-Seeking Control with Applications to High-Altitude Balloons

The real-time optimization of large-scale systems is a difficult problem due to the need for complex models involving uncertain parameters and the high computational cost of solving such problems by a decentralized approach. Extremum-seeking control (ESC) is a model-free real-time optimization technique which can estimate unknown parameters and can optimize nonlinear time-varying systems using only a measurement of the cost function to be minimized. In this thesis, we develop a distributed version of extremum-seeking control which allows large-scale systems to be optimized without models and with minimal computing power. First, we develop a continuous-time distributed extremum-seeking controller. It has three main components: consensus, parameter estimation, and optimization. The consensus provides each local controller with an estimate of the cost to be minimized, allowing them to coordinate their actions. Using this cost estimate, parameters for a local input-output model are estimated, and the cost is minimized by following a gradient descent based on the estimate of the gradient. Next, a similar distributed extremum-seeking controller is developed in discrete-time. Finally, we consider an interesting application of distributed ESC: formation control of high-altitude balloons for high-speed wireless internet. These balloons must be steered into a favourable formation where they are spread out over the Earth and provide coverage to the entire planet. Distributed ESC is applied to this problem, and is shown to be effective for a system of 1200 ballons subjected to realistic wind currents. The approach does not require a wind model and uses a cost function based on a Voronoi partition of the sphere. Distributed ESC is able to steer balloons from a few initial launch sites into a formation which provides coverage to the entire Earth and can maintain a similar formation as the balloons move with the wind around the Earth.

An Input-Process-Output Approach to Interorganizational Teams: The Influence of Work Group Diversity, Trust and Shared Leadership on Communication Network and Team Outputs.

The market’s challenges bring firms to collaborate with other organizations in order to create Joint Ventures, Alliances and Consortia that are defined as “Interorganizational Networks” (IONs) (Provan, Fish and Sydow; 2007). Some of these IONs are managed through a shared partecipant governance (Provan and Kenis, 2008): a team composed by entrepreneurs and/or directors of each firm of an ION. The research is focused on these kind of management teams and it is based on an input-process-output model: some input variables (work group’s diversity, intra-team's friendship network density) have a direct influence on the process (team identification, shared leadership, interorganizational trust, team trust and intra-team's communication network density), which influence some team outputs, individual innovation behaviors and team effectiveness (team performance, work group satisfaction and ION affective commitment). Data was collected on a sample of 101 entrepreneurs grouped in 28 ION’s government teams and the research hypotheses are tested trough the path analysis and the multilevel models. As expected trust in team and shared leadership are positively and directly related to team effectiveness while team identification and interorganizational trust are indirectly related to the team outputs. The friendship network density among the team’s members has got positive effects on the trust in team and on the communication network density, and also, through the communication network density it improves the level of the teammates ION affective commitment. The shared leadership and its effects on the team effectiveness are fostered from higher level of team identification and weakened from higher level of work group diversity, specifically gender diversity. Finally, the communication network density and shared leadership at the individual level are related to the frequency of individual innovative behaviors. The dissertation’s results give a wider and more precise indication about the management of interfirm network through “shared” form of governance.