Testing inflationary cosmology with the BICEP1 and BICEP2 experiments

Recent observations of the temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) favor an inflationary paradigm in which the scale factor of the universe inflated by many orders of magnitude at some very early time. Such a scenario would produce the observed large-scale isotropy and homogeneity of the universe, as well as the scale-invariant perturbations responsible for the observed (10 parts per million) anisotropies in the CMB. An inflationary epoch is also theorized to produce a background of gravitational waves (or tensor perturbations), the effects of which can be observed in the polarization of the CMB. The E-mode (or parity even) polarization of the CMB, which is produced by scalar perturbations, has now been measured with high significance. Con- trastingly, today the B-mode (or parity odd) polarization, which is sourced by tensor perturbations, has yet to be observed. A detection of the B-mode polarization of the CMB would provide strong evidence for an inflationary epoch early in the universe’s history.

In this work, we explore experimental techniques and analysis methods used to probe the B- mode polarization of the CMB. These experimental techniques have been used to build the Bicep2 telescope, which was deployed to the South Pole in 2009. After three years of observations, Bicep2 has acquired one of the deepest observations of the degree-scale polarization of the CMB to date. Similarly, this work describes analysis methods developed for the Bicep1 three-year data analysis, which includes the full data set acquired by Bicep1. This analysis has produced the tightest constraint on the B-mode polarization of the CMB to date, corresponding to a tensor-to-scalar ratio estimate of r = 0.04±0.32, or a Bayesian 95% credible interval of r < 0.70. These analysis methods, in addition to producing this new constraint, are directly applicable to future analyses of Bicep2 data. Taken together, the experimental techniques and analysis methods described herein promise to open a new observational window into the inflationary epoch and the initial conditions of our universe.

Further acceleration of MeV electrons by a relativistic laser pulse

With the development of photocathode rf electron gun, electrons with high-brightness and mono-energy can be obtained easily. By numerically solving the relativistic equations of motion of an electron generated from this facility in laser fields modelled by a circular polarized Gaussian laser pulse, we find the electron can obtain high energy gain from the laser pulse. The corresponding acceleration distance for this electron driven by the ascending part of the laser pulse is much longer than the Rayleigh length, and the light amplitude experienced on the electron is very weak when the laser pulse overtakes the electron. The electron is accelerated effectively and the deceleration can be neglected. For intensities around 10(19) W(.)mu m(2)/cm(2), an electron's energy gain near 0.1 GeV can be realized when its initial energy is 4.5 MeV, and the final velocity of the energetic electron is parallel with the propagation axis. The energy gain can be up to 1 GeV if the intensity is about 10(21) W(.)mu m(2)/cm(2). The final energy gain of the electron as a function of its initial conditions and the parameters of the laser beam has also been discussed.

The electron trajectory in a relativistic femtosecond laser pulse

In this report, we start from Lagrange equation and analyze theoretically the electron dynamics in electromagnetic field. By solving the relativistic government equations of electron, the trajectories of an electron in plane laser pulse, focused laser pulse have been given for different initial conditions. The electron trajectory is determined by its initial momentum, the amplitude, spot size and polarization of the laser pulse. The optimum initial momentum of the electron for LSS (laser synchrotron source) is obtained. Linear polarized laser is more advantaged than circular polarized laser for generating harmonic radiation.

Electronic and kinetic processes in the Cu/CuCl double pulse laser

Kinetic and electronic processes in a Cu/CuCl double pulsed laser were investigated by measuring discharge and laser pulse characteristics, and by computer modeling. There are two time scales inherent to the operation of the Cu/CuCl laser. The first is during the interpulse afterglow (tens to hundreds of microseconds). The second is during the pumping pulse (tens of nanoseconds). It was found that the character of the pumping pulse is largely determined by the initial conditions provided by the interpulse afterglow. By tailoring the dissociation pulse to be long and low energy, and by conditioning the afterglow, one may select the desired initial conditions and thereby significantly improve laser performance. With a low energy dissociation pulse, the fraction of metastable copper obtained from a CuCl dissociation is low. By maintaining the afterglow, contributions to the metastable state from ion recombinations are prevented, and the plasma impedance remains low thereby increasing the rate of current rise during the pumping pulse. Computer models for the dissociation pulse, afterglow, pumping pulse and laser pulse reproduced experimentally observed behavior of laser pulse energy and power as a function of time delay, pumping pulse characteristics, and buffer gas pressure. The sensitivity of laser pulse properties on collisional processes (e.g., CuCl reassociation rates) was investigated.

Análise de unidades de pré-purificação de ar por adsorção

Os principais constituintes do ar, nitrogênio, oxigênio e argônio, estão cada vez mais presentes nas indústrias, onde são empregados nos processos químicos, para o transporte de alimentos e processamento de resíduos. As duas principais tecnologias para a separação dos componentes do ar são a adsorção e a destilação criogênica. Entretanto, para ambos os processos é necessário que os contaminantes do ar, como o gás carbônico, o vapor dágua e hidrocarbonetos, sejam removidos para evitar problemas operacionais e de segurança. Desta forma, o presente trabalho trata do estudo do processo de pré-purificação de ar utilizando adsorção. Neste sistema a corrente de ar flui alternadamente entre dois leitos adsorvedores para produzir ar purificado continuamente. Mais especificamente, o foco da dissertação corresponde à investigação do comportamento de unidades de pré-purificação tipo PSA (pressure swing adsorption), onde a etapa de dessorção é realizada pela redução da pressão. A análise da unidade de pré-purificação parte da modelagem dos leitos de adsorção através de um sistema de equações diferenciais parciais de balanço de massa na corrente gasosa e no leito. Neste modelo, a relação de equilíbrio relativa à adsorção é descrita pela isoterma de Dubinin-Astakhov estendida para misturas multicomponentes. Para a simulação do modelo, as derivadas espaciais são discretizadas via diferenças finitas e o sistema de equações diferenciais ordinárias resultante é resolvido por um solver apropriado (método das linhas). Para a simulação da unidade em operação, este modelo é acoplado a um algoritmo de convergência relativo às quatro etapas do ciclo de operação: adsorção, despressurização, purga e dessorção. O algoritmo em questão deve garantir que as condições finais da última etapa são equivalentes às condições iniciais da primeira etapa (estado estacionário cíclico). Desta forma, a simulação foi implementada na forma de um código computacional baseado no ambiente de programação Scilab (Scilab 5.3.0, 2010), que é um programa de distribuição gratuita. Os algoritmos de simulação de cada etapa individual e do ciclo completo são finalmente utilizados para analisar o comportamento da unidade de pré-purificação, verificando como o seu desempenho é afetado por alterações nas variáveis de projeto ou operacionais. Por exemplo, foi investigado o sistema de carregamento do leito que mostrou que a configuração ideal do leito é de 50% de alumina seguido de 50% de zeólita. Variáveis do processo foram também analisadas, a pressão de adsorção, a vazão de alimentação e o tempo do ciclo de adsorção, mostrando que o aumento da vazão de alimentação leva a perda da especificação que pode ser retomada reduzindo-se o tempo do ciclo de adsorção. Mostrou-se também que uma pressão de adsorção maior leva a uma maior remoção de contaminantes.

The Equation of State and Petrogenesis of Komatiite

(1) Equation of State of Komatiite

The equation of state (EOS) of a molten komatiite (27 wt% MgO) was detennined in the 5 to 36 GPa pressure range via shock wave compression from 1550°C and 0 bar. Shock wave velocity, U_S, and particle velocity, U_P, in km/s follow the linear relationship U_S = 3.13(±0.03) + 1.47(±0.03) U_P. Based on a calculated density at 1550°C, 0 bar of 2.745±0.005 glee, this U_S-U_P relationship gives the isentropic bulk modulus K_S = 27.0 ± 0.6 GPa, and its first and second isentropic pressure derivatives, K'_S = 4.9 ± 0.1 and K"_S = -0.109 ± 0.003 GPa^-1.

The calculated liquidus compression curve agrees within error with the static compression results of Agee and Walker [1988a] to 6 GPa. We detennine that olivine (FO₉₄) will be neutrally buoyant in komatiitic melt of the composition we studied near 8.2 GPa. Clinopyroxene would also be neutrally buoyant near this pressure. Liquidus garnet-majorite may be less dense than this komatiitic liquid in the 20-24 GPa interval, however pyropic-garnet and perovskite phases are denser than this komatiitic liquid in their respective liquidus pressure intervals to 36 GPa. Liquidus perovskite may be neutrally buoyant near 70 GPa.

At 40 GPa, the density of shock-compressed molten komatiite would be approximately equal to the calculated density of an equivalent mixture of dense solid oxide components. This observation supports the model of Rigden et al. [1989] for compressibilities of liquid oxide components. Using their theoretical EOS for liquid forsterite and fayalite, we calculate the densities of a spectrum of melts from basaltic through peridotitic that are related to the experimentally studied komatiitic liquid by addition or subtraction of olivine. At low pressure, olivine fractionation lowers the density of basic magmas, but above 14 GPa this trend is reversed. All of these basic to ultrabasic liquids are predicted to have similar densities at 14 GPa, and this density is approximately equal to the bulk (PREM) mantle. This suggests that melts derived from a peridotitic mantle may be inhibited from ascending from depths greater than 400 km.

The EOS of ultrabasic magmas was used to model adiabatic melting in a peridotitic mantle. If komatiites are formed by >15% partial melting of a peridotitic mantle, then komatiites generated by adiabatic melting come from source regions in the lower transition zone (≈500-670 km) or the lower mantle (>670 km). The great depth of incipient melting implied by this model, and the melt density constraint mentioned above, suggest that komatiitic volcanism may be gravitationally hindered. Although komatiitic magmas are thought to separate from their coexisting crystals at a temperature =200°C greater than that for modern MORBs, their ultimate sources are predicted to be diapirs that, if adiabatically decompressed from initially solid mantle, were more than 700°C hotter than the sources of MORBs and derived from great depth.

We considered the evolution of an initially molten mantle, i.e., a magma ocean. Our model considers the thermal structure of the magma ocean, density constraints on crystal segregation, and approximate phase relationships for a nominally chondritic mantle. Crystallization will begin at the core-mantle boundary. Perovskite buoyancy at > 70 GPa may lead to a compositionally stratified lower mantle with iron-enriched mangesiowiistite content increasing with depth. The upper mantle may be depleted in perovskite components. Olivine neutral buoyancy may lead to the formation of a dunite septum in the upper mantle, partitioning the ocean into upper and lower reservoirs, but this septum must be permeable.

(2) Viscosity Measurement with Shock Waves

We have examined in detail the analytical method for measuring shear viscosity from the decay of perturbations on a corrugated shock front The relevance of initial conditions, finite shock amplitude, bulk viscosity, and the sensitivity of the measurements to the shock boundary conditions are discussed. The validity of the viscous perturbation approach is examined by numerically solving the second-order Navier-Stokes equations. These numerical experiments indicate that shock instabilities may occur even when the Kontorovich-D'yakov stability criteria are satisfied. The experimental results for water at 15 GPa are discussed, and it is suggested that the large effective viscosity determined by this method may reflect the existence of ice VII on the Rayleigh path of the Hugoniot This interpretation reconciles the experimental results with estimates and measurements obtained by other means, and is consistent with the relationship of the Hugoniot with the phase diagram for water. Sound waves are generated at 4.8 MHz at in the water experiments at 15 GPa. The existence of anelastic absorption modes near this frequency would also lead to large effective viscosity estimates.

(3) Equation of State of Molybdenum at 1400°C

Shock compression data to 96 GPa for pure molybdenum, initially heated to 1400°C, are presented. Finite strain analysis of the data gives a bulk modulus at 1400°C, K'_S. of 244±2 GPa and its pressure derivative, K'_OS of 4. A fit of shock velocity to particle velocity gives the coefficients of U_S = C_O+S U_P to be C_O = 4.77±0.06 km/s and S = 1.43±0.05. From the zero pressure sound speed, C_O, a bulk modulus of 232±6 GPa is calculated that is consistent with extrapolation of ultrasonic elasticity measurements. The temperature derivative of the bulk modulus at zero pressure, θK_OSθT|_P, is approximately -0.012 GPa/K. A thermodynamic model is used to show that the thermodynamic Grüneisen parameter is proportional to the density and independent of temperature. The Mie-Grüneisen equation of state adequately describes the high temperature behavior of molybdenum under the present range of shock loading conditions.

Stability of Hypervelocity Boundary Layers

The early stage of laminar-turbulent transition in a hypervelocity boundary layer is studied using a combination of modal linear stability analysis, transient growth analysis, and direct numerical simulation. Modal stability analysis is used to clarify the behavior of first and second mode instabilities on flat plates and sharp cones for a wide range of high enthalpy flow conditions relevant to experiments in impulse facilities. Vibrational nonequilibrium is included in this analysis, its influence on the stability properties is investigated, and simple models for predicting when it is important are described.

Transient growth analysis is used to determine the optimal initial conditions that lead to the largest possible energy amplification within the flow. Such analysis is performed for both spatially and temporally evolving disturbances. The analysis again targets flows that have large stagnation enthalpy, such as those found in shock tunnels, expansion tubes, and atmospheric flight at high Mach numbers, and clarifies the effects of Mach number and wall temperature on the amplification achieved. Direct comparisons between modal and non-modal growth are made to determine the relative importance of these mechanisms under different flow regimes.

Conventional stability analysis employs the assumption that disturbances evolve with either a fixed frequency (spatial analysis) or a fixed wavenumber (temporal analysis). Direct numerical simulations are employed to relax these assumptions and investigate the downstream propagation of wave packets that are localized in space and time, and hence contain a distribution of frequencies and wavenumbers. Such wave packets are commonly observed in experiments and hence their amplification is highly relevant to boundary layer transition prediction. It is demonstrated that such localized wave packets experience much less growth than is predicted by spatial stability analysis, and therefore it is essential that the bandwidth of localized noise sources that excite the instability be taken into account in making transition estimates. A simple model based on linear stability theory is also developed which yields comparable results with an enormous reduction in computational expense. This enables the amplification of finite-width wave packets to be taken into account in transition prediction.

Conversão do metanol em olefinas catalisada por zeólitas com diferentes características ácidas e estruturais

A reação de transformação de metanol em olefinas leves foi investigada sobre as peneiras moleculares HZSM-5, HFER, SAPO-34 e HMCM-22. A caracterização físico-química das amostras foi realizada através das técnicas de FRX, DRX, fisissorção de nitrogênio, MEV, espectrometria no IV com adsorção de piridina e TPD de NH3. O desempenho catalítico das mesmas foi comparado em condições de isoconversão inicial de 755%. Verificou-se que as características ácidas e estruturais exerceram forte influência sobre o desempenho catalítico quanto à atividade, estabilidade e seletividade aos produtos da reação. A amostra mais estável foi a HZSM-5 que apresentou maior densidade de sítios fortes e uma estrutura porosa que permite uma circulação tridimensional das moléculas. Já a menos estável, SAPO-34, apresentou a menor concentração de sítios ácidos fortes dentre os materiais estudados e uma estrutura com cavidades com aberturas estreitas (4Å) que oferecem restrições ao acesso dos reagentes aos sítios ácidos do catalisador. Quanto à seletividade a olefinas, a primeira foi mais seletiva a propeno e a segunda, a eteno. A ferrierita não se mostrou seletiva às olefinas leves tendo apresentado, no entanto, comportamento promissor quanto a formação de DME a partir do metanol. Já a HMCM-22 foi seletiva às olefinas leves e aos hidrocarbonetos com 4, 5 e 6 ou mais átomos de carbono. A influência da temperatura no desempenho catalítico foi investigada variando-se a temperatura de reação (300, 400 e 500C). Verificou-se que para a HZSM-5 e HMCM-22, perda da atividade catalítica foi intensificada a partir de 400C. Quanto à seletividade a olefinas leves, apenas a SAPO-34 não se mostrou sensível a variações na temperatura, efeito este que foi nitidamente observado nos outros três catalisadores: um aumento na temperatura promoveu um aumento na seletividade a olefinas leves no caso da HZSM-5 e da HMCM-22 e queda nesse valor para a HFER

The astrophysics of strongly interacting systems

This thesis presents investigations in four areas of theoretical astrophysics: the production of sterile neutrino dark matter in the early Universe, the evolution of small-scale baryon perturbations during the epoch of cosmological recombination, the effect of primordial magnetic fields on the redshifted 21-cm emission from the pre-reionization era, and the nonlinear stability of tidally deformed neutron stars.

In the first part of the thesis, we study the asymmetry-driven resonant production of 7 keV-scale sterile neutrino dark matter in the primordial Universe at temperatures T >~ 100 MeV. We report final DM phase space densities that are robust to uncertainties in the nature of the quark-hadron transition. We give transfer functions for cosmological density fluctuations that are useful for N-body simulations. We also provide a public code for the production calculation.

In the second part of the thesis, we study the instability of small-scale baryon pressure sound waves during cosmological recombination. We show that for relevant wavenumbers, inhomogenous recombination is driven by the transport of ionizing continuum and Lyman-alpha photons. We find a maximum growth factor less than ≈ 1.2 in 10⁷ random realizations of initial conditions. The low growth factors are due to the relatively short duration of the recombination epoch.

In the third part of the thesis, we propose a method of measuring weak magnetic fields, of order 10^-19 G (or 10^-21 G if scaled to the present day), with large coherence lengths in the inter galactic medium prior to and during the epoch of cosmic reionization. The method utilizes the Larmor precession of spin-polarized neutral hydrogen in the triplet state of the hyperfine transition. We perform detailed calculations of the microphysics behind this effect, and take into account all the processes that affect the hyperfine transition, including radiative decays, collisions, and optical pumping by Lyman-alpha photons.

In the final part of the thesis, we study the non-linear effects of tidal deformations of neutron stars (NS) in a compact binary. We compute the largest three- and four-mode couplings among the tidal mode and high-order p- and g-modes of similar radial wavenumber. We demonstrate the near-exact cancellation of their effects, and resolve the question of the stability of the tidally deformed NS to leading order. This result is significant for the extraction of binary parameters from gravitational wave observations.

Turbulent buoyant jets into stratified or flowing ambient fluids

Theoretical and experimental studies were made on two classes of buoyant jet problems, namely:

1) an inclined, round buoyant yet in a stagnant environment with linear density-stratification;

2) a round buoyant jet in a uniform cross stream of homogenous density.

Using the integral technique of analysis, assuming similarity, predictions can be made for jet trajectory, widths, and dilution ratios, in a density-stratified or flowing environment. Such information is of great importance in the design of disposal systems for sewage effluent into the ocean or waste gases into the atmosphere.

The present study of a buoyant jet in a stagnant environment has extended the Morton type of analysis to cover the effect of the initial angle of discharge. Numerical solutions have been presented for a range of initial conditions. Laboratory experiments were conducted for photographic observations of the trajectories of dyed jets. In general the observed jet forms agreed well with the calculated trajectories and nominal half widths when the value of the entrainment coefficient was taken to be α = 0.082, as previously suggested by Morton.

The problem of a buoyant jet in a uniform cross stream was analyzed by assuming an entrainment mechanism based upon the vector difference between the characteristic jet velocity and the ambient velocity. The effect of the unbalanced pressure field on the sides of the jet flow was approximated by a gross drag term. Laboratory flume experiments with sinking jets which are directly analogous to buoyant jets were performed. Salt solutions were injected into fresh water at the free surface in a flume. The jet trajectories, dilution ratios and jet half widths were determined by conductivity measurements. The entrainment coefficient, α, and drag coefficient, C_d, were found from the observed jet trajectories and dilution ratios. In the ten cases studied where jet Froude number ranged from 10 to 80 and velocity ratio (jet: current) K from 4 to 16, α varied from 0.4 to 0.5 and C_d from 1.7 to 0.1. The jet mixing motion for distance within 250D was found to be dominated by the self-generated turbulence, rather than the free-stream turbulence. Similarity of concentration profiles has also been discussed.

Dynamic response of hysteretic systems with application to a system containing limited slip

A general class of single degree of freedom systems possessing rate-independent hysteresis is defined. The hysteretic behavior in a system belonging to this class is depicted as a sequence of single-valued functions; at any given time, the current function is determined by some set of mathematical rules concerning the entire previous response of the system. Existence and uniqueness of solutions are established and boundedness of solutions is examined.

An asymptotic solution procedure is used to derive an approximation to the response of viscously damped systems with a small hysteretic nonlinearity and trigonometric excitation. Two properties of the hysteresis loops associated with any given system completely determine this approximation to the response: the area enclosed by each loop, and the average of the ascending and descending branches of each loop.

The approximation, supplemented by numerical calculations, is applied to investigate the steady-state response of a system with limited slip. Such features as disconnected response curves and jumps in response exist for a certain range of system parameters for any finite amount of slip.

To further understand the response of this system, solutions of the initial-value problem are examined. The boundedness of solutions is investigated first. Then the relationship between initial conditions and resulting steady-state solution is examined when multiple steady-state solutions exist. Using the approximate analysis and numerical calculations, it is found that significant regions of initial conditions in the initial condition plane lead to the different asymptotically stable steady-state solutions.

Estudo do comportamento caótico e determinação de dimensão fractal em modelos pré-inflacionários não compactos

O caos determinístico é um dos aspectos mais interessantes no que diz respeito à teoria moderna dos sistemas dinâmicos, e está intrinsecamente associado a pequenas variações nas condições iniciais de um dado modelo. Neste trabalho, é feito um estudo acerca do comportamento caótico em dois casos específicos. Primeiramente, estudam-se modelos préinflacionários não-compactos de Friedmann-Robertson-Walker com campo escalar minimamente acoplado e, em seguida, modelos anisotrópicos de Bianchi IX. Em ambos os casos, o componente material é um fluido perfeito. Tais modelos possuem constante cosmológica e podem ser estudados através de uma descrição unificada, a partir de transformações de variáveis convenientes. Estes sistemas possuem estruturas similares no espaço de fases, denominadas centros-sela, que fazem com que as soluções estejam contidas em hipersuperfícies cuja topologia é cilíndrica. Estas estruturas dominam a relação entre colapso e escape para a inflação, que podem ser tratadas como bacias cuja fronteira pode ser fractal, e que podem ser associadas a uma estrutura denominada repulsor estranho. Utilizando o método de contagem de caixas, são calculadas as dimensões características das fronteiras nos modelos, o que envolve técnicas e algoritmos de computação numérica, e tal método permite estudar o escape caótico para a inflação.

Um problema inverso em dois passos para estimação de perfis de temperatura na atmosfera com nuvens a partir de medidas de radiância feitas por satélite

Esta tese tem por objetivo propor uma metodologia para recuperação de perfis verticais de temperatura na atmosfera com nuvens a partir de medidas de radiância feitas por satélite, usando redes neurais artificiais. Perfis verticais de temperatura são importantes condições iniciais para modelos de previsão de tempo, e são usualmente obtidos a partir de medidas de radiâncias feitas por satélites na faixa do infravermelho. No entanto, quando estas medidas são feitas na presença de nuvens, não é possível, com as técnicas atuais, efetuar a recuperação deste perfil. É uma perda significativa de informação, pois, em média, 20% dos pixels das imagens acusam presença de nuvens. Nesta tese, este problema é resolvido como um problema inverso em dois passos: o primeiro passo consiste na determinação da radiância que atinge a base da nuvem a partir da radiância medida pelos satélites; o segundo passo consiste na determinação do perfil vertical de temperaturas a partir da informação de radiância fornecida pelo primeiro passo. São apresentadas reconstruções do perfil de temperatura para quatro casos testes. Os resultados obtidos mostram que a metodologia adotada produz resultados satisfatórios e tem grande potencial de uso, permitindo incorporar informações sobre uma região mais ampla do globo e, consequentemente, melhorar os modelos de previsão do tempo.

Modelagem da Dinâmica do Sistema de Controle de Lastro de uma Plataforma Semisubmersível.

É descrita a modelagem, para controle, da dinâmica de uma plataforma semisubmersível com seis graus de liberdade. O modelo inclui os efeitos dos tanques de lastro como forças e momentos, assim como a dinâmica da plataforma. Os parâmetros do sistema foram obtidos das características da plataforma e de resultados experimentais obtidos com uma plataforma semisubmersível de dimensões reduzidas. O desenvolvimento de uma metodologia e de um software capazes de determinar o volume submerso e o centro de empuxo de uma estrutura com geometria complexa foram pontos determinantes nessa Dissertação, tendo em vista a complexidade do processo e as importâncias desses parâmetros para o desenvolvimento do modelo. A linearização do modelo permitiu a elaboração de uma estratégia de controle capaz de estabilizar a plataforma mesmo em condições iniciais distantes do equilíbrio. As equações que descrevem o movimento da plataforma nos graus de liberdade vertical, jogo e arfagem foram desenvolvidas. A realocação dos polos e um observador de estado foram utilizados com o objetivo de melhorar o controle do sistema.

Skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer

We have performed GCM experiments using the National Meteorological Center's Medium Range Forecasting (MRF) model to study the skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer and to test the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on such forecasts. The daily skill varies a great deal. The skillful daily forecasts last from 5 to 8 days for the Southern Hemisphere and from 6 to 8 days for the Northern Hemisphere. SSTAs have positive impact on the forecasts in the tropics and surface variables, but the impact of tropical SSTAs on the extra-tropical circulation is, in general, positive but small. Overall, the initial conditions play a more important role than SSTAs in determining the forecast skill.