Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Critical Success Factors for Transfer-Operate-Transfer Urban Water Supply Projects in China

Over the years, build-operate-transfer (BOT) has continuously attracted research interests. Many studies on BOT have been carried out. Variations of BOT such as build-own-operate-transfer and build-own-operate have also been reported in some relevant publications. However, few investigations thus far have been conducted for transfer-operate-transfer (TOT). Therefore, there is a knowledge gap in this particular field. TOT is a new model that is suitable for existing infrastructure and public utility projects formerly funded by the governments and currently operated by state-owned enterprises. It refers to the transfer of a running public project to a foreign business or domestic private entity. Based on four case studies carried out in the Chinese water supply industry, this paper examines why there is an increasing need for TOT projects and identifies the distinctive features of TOT practice in China. This is followed by an introduction of a framework of critical success factors (CSFs) for TOT projects. The most important factors include project profitability, asset quality, fair risk allocation, competitive tendering, internal coordination within government, employment of professional advisors, corporate governance, and government supervision. The identification of CSFs provides a useful guidance to project parties planning to participate in TOT practice.

Early Implementation of Building Information Modeling into a Cold-Formed Steel Company: Providing Novel Project Management Techniques and Solutions to Industry

The ability of building information modeling (BIM) to positively impact projects in the AEC through greater collaboration and integration is widely acknowledged. This paper aims to examine the development of BIM and how it can contribute to the cold-formed steel (CFS) building industry. This is achieved through the adoption of a qualitative methodology encompassing a literature review, exploratory interviews with industry experts, culminating in the development of e-learning material for the sector. In doing so, the research team have collaborated with one of the United Kingdom’s largest cold-formed steel designer/fabricators. By demonstrating the capabilities of BIM software and providing technical and informative videos in its creation, this project has found two key outcomes. Firstly, to provide invaluable assistance in the transition from traditional processes to a fully collaborative 3D BIM as required by the UK Government under the “Government Construction Strategy” by 2016 in all public sector projects. Secondly, to demonstrate BIM’s potential not only within CFS companies, but also within the AEC sector as a whole. As the flexibility, adaptability and interoperability of BIM software is alluded to, the results indicate that the introduction and development of BIM and the underlying ethos suggests that it is a key tool in the development of the industry as a whole.

Factors Influencing the Implementation of Site Waste Management Plans on UK Projects of all sizes

The purpose of this research is to identify and assess the opportunities and challenges of implementing a Site Waste Management Plan (SWMP) on projects irrespective of size. In the UK, construction and demolition waste accounts for a third of all UK waste. There are a number of factors that influence the implementation of SWMPs. In order to identify and analyse these factors, 4 unstructured interviews were carried out and a sample of 56 participants completed a questionnaire survey. The scope of the study was limited to UK
construction industry professionals. The analysis revealed that more needs to be done if the industry is to meet government targets of reduction in construction related waste going to landfill. In addition, although SWMP may not yet be legally required on all construction projects, clients and contractors need to realise
the benefits to cut costs and implement best practice by adopting a SWMP. The benefits of implementing a SWMP will not only help to achieve this but also gain significant cost savings on projects and is also extremely beneficial to the environment. This study presents evidence that contractors need to do more to reduce waste and draws a clear link between waste reduction and the implementation of SWMPs. The findings are useful in the ongoing efforts to encourage the industry to find smarter, more efficient and less
damaging ways to operate

Conversations with the Future: Creativity, Aesthetics and Industry Application in Anthropological Practice

This article presents a series of conversations with anthropologists working in collaborative, interdisciplinary settings and projects. It examines the changing role and place of anthropology on the island of Ireland, particular for early career anthropologists. With anthropologists now working in settings as diverse as business schools, health, music, documentary making and industry (to name but a few), early career researchers are now dealing with new challenges. In this piece, we map out a number of these debates and show how a multiplicity of anthropologies and practices are emerging on the island.

Who controls whom? Interaction dynamics and success of university-industry initiatives

This chapter looks into the importance of having a clear identity of a boundary spanner in determining the role of the partners in a university-industry knowledge transfer programme. It highlights issues around the relationship between the business and the graduate as the boundary spanner, where the university's level of control differs between two programmes: Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) and Knowledge Exchange and Enterprise Network (KEEN) programme. The four case studies illustrate interesting points since the university is the employer for the KTPs associate and the business is the employer for the KEEN associate, whilst successful KTP and KEEN projects rely on a full understanding of the role of the graduate within the business.

Structured business solution for infrastructure projects

Companies seeking to continue growing and developing need to consider the possibility of international expansion and what that represents to their future. To tackle this challenge it becomes necessary to establish the company’s interests and priorities as well as defining and assessing the foreign market opportunities of a specific industry. This directed research internship proposes and conducts a simulation of the preliminary foreign market assessment and selection within the Juncker Plan: country filtering and ranking having as a frame of reference the second largest construction company in Brazil, Andrade Gutierrez.

Niagara alternative food projects : networks, discourses and nature /

This thesis undertakes an exploration of the nature of alternative food projects in Niagara. A review of various theoretical approaches to the study of food and agriculture, suggests that actor-network theory offers the most useful lens through which to understand these projects. In particular, actor-network theory facilitates non-dualistic theorisations of power and scale and a commitment to the inclusion of non-humans in the 'social' sciences. The research is based on 19 in-depth interviews with actors involved in various urban and rural projects including community supported agriculture, community gardens, chefs using local seasonal food, a winery that grows organically, the good food box, a value-added small business, and organic producers. The analysis consists of four themes. The first analytical section pays special attention to the prominence of agri-tourism in Niagara, and examines the ways in which the projects in the sample interact with agri-tourist networks. In the second section the discussion focuses on the discourses and practices of resistance among Niagara alternative food actors. The participants' interviews suggest there are more discourses of resistance toward agri-tourist than toward dominant food networks. The third section questions commodity chain theorisations of alternative food projects. In particular, this section shows how the inclusion of non-human actors in an analysis confounds conceptualisations of 'short' and 'local' chains. The final analytical section assesses relations of power in Niagara alternative food projects. Three important conclusions arise from this research. First, Niagara alternative food projects cannot be conceptualised as operating at the 'local' scale. Broadening the scope of analysis to include non-human actors, it becomes apparent that these projects actually draw on a variety of extra-local actors. They are at once local and global. Second, the projects in this sample are simultaneously part of alternative, dominant and agri-tourist networks. While Niagara alternative food projects do perform many of the roles characteristic of alternative food systems, they are also involved in practices of development, business, and class distinction. Thus, alternative food networks should not be understood as separate from and in direct opposition to dominant food networks. Despite the second conclusion, this research determines that Niagara alternative food projects have made significant strides in the reworking of power. The projects represented in this thesis do engage in resistant practices and are associated with increased levels ofjustice.

A critical study of major construction projects in kerala vis-a-vis effectiveness in project implementation

Chapter 1 presents a brief note on the state at which the construction industry stands at present, bringing into focus the significance of the critical study. Relevance of the study, area of investigation and objectives of the study are outlined in this chapter. The 2nd chapter presents a review of the literature on the relevant areas. In the third chapter an analysis on time and cost overrun in construction highlighting the major factors responsible for it has been done. A couple of case studies to estimate loss to the nation on account of delay in construction have been presented in the chapter. The need for an appropriate estimate and a competent contractor has been emphasised for improving effectiveness in the project implementation. Certain useful equations and thoughts have been formulated on this area in this chapter that can be followed in State PWD and other Govt. organisations. Case studies on project implementation of major projects undertaken by Government sponsored/supported organizations in Kerala have been dealt with in Chapter 4. A detailed description of the project of Kerala Legislature Complex with a critical analysis has been given in this chapter. A detailed account of the investigations carried out on the construction of International Stadium, a sports project of Greater Cochin Development Authority is included here. The project details of Cochin International Airport at Nedumbassery, its promoters and contractors are also discussed in Chapter 4. Various aspects of implementation which led the above projects successful have been discussed in chapter 5. The data collected were analysed through discussion and perceptions to arrive at certain conclusions. The emergence of front-loaded contract and its impact on economics of the project execution are dealt with in this chapter. Analysis of delays in respect of the various project narrated in chapter 3 has been done here. The root causes of the project time and overrun and its remedial measures are also enlisted in this chapter. Study of cost and time overrun of any construction project IS a part of construction management. Under the present environment of heavy investment on construction activities in India, the consequences of mismanagement many a time lead to excessive expenditure which are not be avoidable. Cost consciousness, therefore has to be keener than ever before. Optimization in investment can be achieved by improved dynamism in construction management. The successful completion of coristruction projects within the specified programme, optimizing three major attributes of the process - quality, schedule and costs - has become the most valuable and challenging task for the engineer - managers to perform. So, the various aspects of construction management such as cost control, schedule control, quality assurance, management techniques etc. have also been discussed in this fifth chapter. Chapter 6 summarises the conclusions drawn from the above criticalr1 of rhajor construction projects in Kerala.

Modelling the construction projects using plans of work

An overview of organization in the construction industry is identified from plans of work published in the UK. This provides a basis for identifying the essential steps through which any construction project must pass. It is shown that all construction projects pass through a set of stages of work, consisting of inception, feasibility, scheme design, detail design, contract formation, construction and commissioning. Although there may be changes to the sequence and importance of these stages, their identification helps in making judgements about organizational structure on construction projects.

Financial protection in the UK building industry: a guide for clients and the construction supply chain.

There is a clear need for financial protection in the construction industry, both to guarantee satisfactory completion of construction projects and to guard against non-payment. However, the cost of financial protection is often felt to be disproportionately high, with unnecessary overlap between different measures. The Reading Construction Forum has commissioned and steered research which is published in this report in an effort to bring the problem out into the open and to clarify the various options open to the various parties and stakeholders in the construction process. "Financial Protection in the UK Building Industry" is the first definitive report on the subject, offering an accurate and simple guide that all levels within the construction industry can understand. This accessible new guide considers the problem of financial protection and clearly lays out the alternative solutions.It looks by turn at the client, the main contractor, and the sub-contractor, discussing which financial protection options are available to each of them, and considers the pros and cons of each option. The cost of each type of financial protection is weighed against the amount of protection provided and the risks involved. The book concludes with guidance for consultants, emphasising relevant points to consider when advising clients and contractors about which type of financial protection to choose. "Financial Protection in the UK Building Industry" was researched by a literature search, collection of statistical data, and financial data, as well as discussions with clients, contractors, sub-contractors and consultants. This investigation has shown that the direct costs of implementing financial protection measures are marginal, and that wider adoption of payment protection would create a more equitable situation between contracting parties.This guide will enable anyone in the construction industry to consider all the options, and determine what is the best solution for them. "Reading Construction Forum Financial Protection for the UK Building Industry" was complied by the University of Reading, funded by the Reading Construction Forum. The Forum has recently commissioned and steered a number of high-profile reports covering important aspects of the construction industry. Members of the Forum include major companies which are concerned with achieving high quality in the design, construction and use of commercial, retail and industrial buildings. All are committed to change and innovation in the British and European construction industries.

The impact of market and supply configurations on the costs of tendering in the construction industry

The cost of tendering in the construction industry is widely suspected to be excessive, but there is little robust empirical evidence to demonstrate this. It also seems that innovative working practices may reduce the costs of undertaking construction projects and the consequent improvement in relationships should increase overall value for money. The aim of this proposed research project is to develop mechanisms for measuring the true costs of tendering based upon extensive in-house data collection undertaken in a range of different construction firms. The output from this research will enable all participants in the construction process to make better decisions about how to select members of the team and identify the price and scope of their obligations.

Roles in construction projects: analysis and terminology

Standard form contracts are typically developed through a negotiated consensus, unless they are proffered by one specific interest group. Previously published plans of work and other descriptions of the processes in construction projects tend to focus on operational issues, or they tend to be prepared from the point of view of one or other of the dominant interest groups. Legal practice in the UK permits those who draft contracts to define their terms as they choose. There are no definitive rulings from the courts that give an indication as to the detailed responsibilities of project participants. The science of terminology offers useful guidance for discovering and describing terms and their meanings in their practical context, but has never been used for defining terms for responsibilities of participants in the construction project management process. Organizational analysis enables the management task to be deconstructed into its elemental parts in order that effective organizational structures can be developed. Organizational mapping offers a useful technique for reducing text-based descriptions of project management roles and responsibilities to a comparable basis. Research was carried out by means of a desk study, detailed analysis of nine plans of work and focus groups representing all aspects of the construction industry. No published plan of work offers definitive guidance. There is an enormous amount of variety in the way that terms are used for identifying responsibilities of project participants. A catalogue of concepts and terms (a “Terminology”) has been compiled and indexed to enable those who draft contracts to choose the most appropriate titles for project participants. The purpose of this terminology is to enable the selection and justification of appropriate terms in order to help define roles. The terminology brings an unprecedented clarity to the description of roles and responsibilities in construction projects and, as such, will be helpful for anyone seeking to assemble a team and specify roles for project participants.

Contemporary organizational theory in the management of construction projects

The level of insolvencies in the construction industry is high, when compared to other industry sectors. Given the management expertise and experience that is available to the construction industry, it seems strange that, according to the literature, the major causes of failure are lack of financial control and poor management. This indicates that with a good cash flow management, companies could be kept operating and financially healthy. It is possible to prevent failure. Although there are financial models that can be used to predict failure, they are based on company accounts, which have been shown to be an unreliable source of data. There are models available for cash flow management and forecasting and these could be used as a starting point for managers in rethinking their cash flow management practices. The research reported here has reached the stage of formulating researchable questions for an in-depth study including issues such as how contractors manage their cash flow, how payment practices can be managed without damaging others in the supply chain and the relationships between companies" financial structures and the payment regimes to which they are subjected.

Developing a system for assessing the costs associated with different procurement routes in the construction industry

In developing techniques for monitoring the costs associated with different procurement routes, the central task is disentangling the various project costs incurred by organizations taking part in construction projects. While all firms are familiar with the need to analyse their own costs, it is unusual to apply the same kind of analysis to projects. The purpose of this research is to examine the claims that new ways of working such as strategic alliancing and partnering bring positive business benefits. This requires that costs associated with marketing, estimating, pricing, negotiation of terms, monitoring of performance and enforcement of contract are collected for a cross-section of projects under differing arrangements, and from those in the supply chain from clients to consultants, contractors, sub-contractors and suppliers. Collaboration with industrial partners forms the basis for developing a research instrument, based on time sheets, which will be relevant for all those taking part in the work. The signs are that costs associated with tendering are highly variable, 1-15%, depending upon what precisely is taken into account. The research to date reveals that there are mechanisms for measuring the costs of transactions and these will generate useful data for subsequent analysis.