Bayesian indirect inference using a parametric auxiliary model

Indirect inference (II) is a methodology for estimating the parameters of an intractable (generative) model on the basis of an alternative parametric (auxiliary) model that is both analytically and computationally easier to deal with. Such an approach has been well explored in the classical literature but has received substantially less attention in the Bayesian paradigm. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast a collection of what we call parametric Bayesian indirect inference (pBII) methods. One class of pBII methods uses approximate Bayesian computation (referred to here as ABC II) where the summary statistic is formed on the basis of the auxiliary model, using ideas from II. Another approach proposed in the literature, referred to here as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood (pBIL), we show to be a fundamentally different approach to ABC II. We devise new theoretical results for pBIL to give extra insights into its behaviour and also its differences with ABC II. Furthermore, we examine in more detail the assumptions required to use each pBII method. The results, insights and comparisons developed in this paper are illustrated on simple examples and two other substantive applications. The first of the substantive examples involves performing inference for complex quantile distributions based on simulated data while the second is for estimating the parameters of a trivariate stochastic process describing the evolution of macroparasites within a host based on real data. We create a novel framework called Bayesian indirect likelihood (BIL) which encompasses pBII as well as general ABC methods so that the connections between the methods can be established.

Indirect message injection for MAC generation

This paper presents a model for the generation of a MAC tag using a stream cipher. The input message is used indirectly to control segments of the keystream that form the MAC tag. Several recent proposals can be considered as instances of this general model, as they all perform message accumulation in this way. However, they use slightly different processes in the message preparation and finalisation phases. We examine the security of this model for different options and against different types of attack, and conclude that the indirect injection model can be used to generate MAC tags securely for certain combinations of options. Careful consideration is required at the design stage to avoid combinations of options that result in susceptibility to forgery attacks. Additionally, some implementations may be vulnerable to side-channel attacks if used in Authenticated Encryption (AE) algorithms. We give design recommendations to provide resistance to these attacks for proposals following this model.

National survey of viruses in pastures of subterranean clover. II. Statistical methodology for large scale quantitative ELISA

Statistical methodology was applied to a survey of time-course incidence of four viruses (alfalfa mosaic virus, clover yellow vein virus, subterranean clover mottle virus and subterranean clover red leaf virus) in improved pastures in southern regions of Australia. -from Authors

National survey of viruses in pastures of subterranean clover. I. Incidence of four viruses assessed by ELISA

A nationwide survey was made of the time-course incidence of alfalfa mosaic virus (AMV), clover yellow vein virus (CYVV), subterranean clover mottle virus (SCMoV) and subterranean clover red leaf virus (SCRLV) in improved pastures in southern regions of Australia. Averaged over all states, the highest mean incidence recorded for samples infected with individual viruses in either winter or spring was 9.4% for AMV, 5.7% for CYVV, 10.9% for SCMoV and 7.5% for SCRLV. For AMV and SCRLV, there was an increasing trend from spring 1984 to spring 1986. A similar increasing trend for SCMoV was more evident in winter than in spring. For CYVV, no time-course pattern was evident. Results support the proposition that viruses contribute significantly to "clover-decline', a well-known problem in pastures of Trifolium subterraneum. -from Authors

Automatic classification of human epithelial type 2 cell indirect immunofluorescence images using cell pyramid matching

This paper describes a novel system for automatic classification of images obtained from Anti-Nuclear Antibody (ANA) pathology tests on Human Epithelial type 2 (HEp-2) cells using the Indirect Immunofluorescence (IIF) protocol. The IIF protocol on HEp-2 cells has been the hallmark method to identify the presence of ANAs, due to its high sensitivity and the large range of antigens that can be detected. However, it suffers from numerous shortcomings, such as being subjective as well as time and labour intensive. Computer Aided Diagnostic (CAD) systems have been developed to address these problems, which automatically classify a HEp-2 cell image into one of its known patterns (eg. speckled, homogeneous). Most of the existing CAD systems use handpicked features to represent a HEp-2 cell image, which may only work in limited scenarios. We propose a novel automatic cell image classification method termed Cell Pyramid Matching (CPM), which is comprised of regional histograms of visual words coupled with the Multiple Kernel Learning framework. We present a study of several variations of generating histograms and show the efficacy of the system on two publicly available datasets: the ICPR HEp-2 cell classification contest dataset and the SNPHEp-2 dataset.

Wheat breeding nurseries, target environments, and indirect selection for grain yield

Use of appropriate nursery environments will maximize gain from selection for yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in the target population of environments of a breeding program. The objective of this study was to investigate how well-irrigated (low-stress) nursery environments predict yield of lines in target environments that varied in degree of water limitation. Fifteen lines were sampled from the preliminary yield evaluation stage of the Queensland wheat breeding program and tested in 26 trials under on-farm conditions (Target Environments) across nine years (1985 to 1993) and also in 27 trials conducted at three research stations (Nursery Environments) in three years (1987 to 1989). The nursery environments were structured to impose different levels of water and nitrogen (N) limitation, whereas the target environments represented a random sample of on-farm conditions from the target population of environments. Indirect selection and pattern analysis methods were used to investigate selection for yield in the nursery environments and gain from selection in the target environments. Yield under low-stress nursery conditions was an effective predictor of yield under similar low-stress target environments (r = 0.89, P < 0.01). However, the value of the low-stress nursery as a predictor of yield in the water-limited target environments decreased with increasing water stress (moderate stress r = 0.53, P < 0.05, to r = 0.38, P > 0.05; severe stress r = -0.08, P > 0.05). Yield in the stress nurseries was a poor predictor of yield in the target environments. Until there is a clear understanding of the physiological-genetic basis of variation for adaptation of wheat to the water-limited environments in Queensland, yield improvement can best be achieved by selection for a combination of yield potential in an irrigated low-stress nursery and yield in on-farm trials that sample the range of water-limited environments of the target population of environments.

Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

Effectiveness of a puppet show on iodine knowledge, attitudes and behaviour of elementary students and the indirect effects on their parents and households in Ho Chi Minh City : a pilot study

Deficiencies in iodine levels have been shown to seriously affect a child’s intellectual development and learning capacity.1 In South-East Asia, iodine deficiency remains a major public health concern. Approximately 30% of the region’s population of 503.6 million have insufficient iodine intake, and only 61% of households have access to iodized salt.1 For this reason, it is necessary to initiate effective, community-based health promotion activities that are targeted toward populations of various ages. A puppet show is one imaginative and entertaining method of health education that has been advocated for use in communicating positive health behaviours to children.2e5 The authors undertook a literature review and found no studies assessing the effectiveness of a puppet show to teach an iodine education programme...

Indirect effects of phytochemicals on offspring performance of Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Phytochemical lures such as methyl eugenol (ME) and cue-lure are used in the management of Bactrocera fruit flies for monitoring and control. These lures are not just attractants, but also trigger physiological changes in males that lead to enhanced mating success. Additionally, in the cue-lure-responsive Bactrocera tryoni, females mated with lure-fed males exhibit changes in fecundity, remating receptivity and longevity. While the lures show current generation effects, no research has been carried out on possible multigenerational effects, although such effects have been hypothesized within a ‘sexy-son’ sexual selection model. In this study, we test for indirect, cross-generational effects of lure exposure in F1offspring of B. tryoni females mated with cue-lure-fed, zingerone-fed and lure-unfed (=control) males. The F1 attributes we recorded were immature development time, immature survival, adult survival and adult male lure foraging. No significant differences were found between treatments for any of the three life-history measurements, except that the offspring sired by zingerone-fed males had a longer egg development time than cue-lure and control offspring. However, indirect exposure to lures significantly enhanced the lure-foraging ability of F1 adult males. More offspring of cue-lure-fed males arrived at a lure source in both large flight cages and small laboratory cages over a 2-h period than did control males. The offspring of zingerone-fed males were generally intermediate between cue-lure and control offspring. This study provides the first evidence of a next generation effect of fruit fly male lures. While the results of this study support a ‘sexy-son’ sexual selection mechanism for the evolution of lure response in Bactrocera fruit flies, our discussion urges caution in interpreting our results in this way.

Applicability of ELISA in pesticide monitoring to control runoff of bensulfuron-methyl and simetryn from paddy fields

The applicability of ELISA kits was evaluated as an alternative to monitor bensulfuron-methyl and simetryn behavior in paddy water under intermittent (Plot 1) and continuous (Plot 2) irrigation schemes. Simetryn concentrations in both plots decreased exponentially from the peak of the first day. However, the simetryn kit systematically underestimated by a factor of 0.79 as compared to the GC method. Bensulfuron-methyl concentrations exhibited similar dissipation kinetics in paddy water and the drainage water. The bensulfuron-methyl kit was capable of distinguishing spatial variations of concentrations in the paddy field. The ELISA kits clearly indicated differences in the loss of both herbicides between the two plots and therefore may be useful for evaluating the water management practice of pesticide runoff control in paddy fields.

ELISA: An Estimated Load Information Scheduling Algorithm for Distributed Computing Systems

In this paper, we present a decentralized dynamic load scheduling/balancing algorithm called ELISA (Estimated Load Information Scheduling Algorithm) for general purpose distributed computing systems. ELISA uses estimated state information based upon periodic exchange of exact state information between neighbouring nodes to perform load scheduling. The primary objective of the algorithm is to cut down on the communication and load transfer overheads by minimizing the frequency of status exchange and by restricting the load transfer and status exchange within the buddy set of a processor. It is shown that the resulting algorithm performs almost as well as a perfect information algorithm and is superior to other load balancing schemes based on the random sharing and Ni-Hwang algorithms. A sensitivity analysis to study the effect of various design parameters on the effectiveness of load balancing is also carried out. Finally, the algorithm's performance is tested on large dimensional hypercubes in the presence of time-varying load arrival process and is shown to perform well in comparison to other algorithms. This makes ELISA a viable and implementable load balancing algorithm for use in general purpose distributed computing systems.

ELISA for the detection of venoms from four medically important snakes of India

A double antibody sandwich enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was developed to detect Echis carinatus venom in various organs (brain, heart, lungs, liver, spleen and kidneys) as well as tissue at the site of injection of mice, at various time intervals (1, 6, 12, 18, 24 h and 12 h intervals up to 72 h) after death. The assay could detect E. carinatus venom levels up to 2.5 ng/ml of tissue homogenate and the venom was detected up to 72 h after death. A highly sensitive and species-specific avidin-biotin microtitre ELISA was also developed to detect venoms of four medically important Indian snakes (Bungarus caeruleus, Naja naja, E. carinatus and Daboia russelli russelli) in autopsy specimens of human victims of snake bite. The assay could detect venom levels as low as 100 pg/ml of tissue homogenate. Venoms were detected in brain, heart, lungs, liver, spleen, kidneys, tissue at the bite area and postmortem blood. In all 12 human victim cadavers tested the culprit species were identified. As observed in mice, tissue at the site of bite area showed the highest concentration of venom and the brain showed the least. Moderate amounts of venoms were found in liver, spleen, kidneys, heart and lungs. Development of a simple, rapid and species-specific diagnostic kit based on this ELISA technique useful to clinicians is discussed.

Determination of chemical shift anisotropy without a reference and of direct and indirect spin-spin couplings between heteronuclei

A method employing two liquid crystals of opposite diamagnetic anisotropies to determine chemical shift anisotropy without using any reference compound is described. It also provides individual values of the direct and the indirect spin-spin coupling constants between heteronuclei. The parameters for acetonitrile are reported.

Comparison of the indirect haemagglutination and gel diffusion test for serotyping Haemophilus parasuis

The aim of this study was to compare the use of indirect haemagglutination (IHA) and gel diffusion (GD) tests for serotyping Haemophilus parasuis by the Kielstein-Rapp-Gabrielson scheme. All 15 serovar reference strains, 72 Australian field isolates, nine Chinese field isolates, and seven isolates from seven experimentally infected pigs were evaluated with both tests. With the IHA test, 14 of the 15 reference strains were correctly serotyped – with serovar 10 failing to give a titre with serovar 10 antiserum. In the GD test, 13 reference strains were correctly serotyped – with antigen from serovars 7 and 8 failing to react with any antiserum. The IHA methodology serotyped a total of 45 of 81 field isolates while the GD methodology serotyped a total of 48 isolates. For 29 isolates, the GD and IHA methods gave discordant results. It was concluded that the IHA is a good additional test for the serotyping of H. parasuis by the KRG scheme if the GD methodology fails to provide a result or shows unusual cross-reactions.