Causal Inference in Observational Studies with Outcome-Dependent Sampling

In this paper, we consider estimation of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome from observational data collected in two phases. In the first phase, a simple random sample of individuals are drawn from a population. On these individuals, information is obtained on treatment, outcome, and a few low-dimensional confounders. These individuals are then stratified according to these factors. In the second phase, a random sub-sample of individuals are drawn from each stratum, with known, stratum-specific selection probabilities. On these individuals, a rich set of confounding factors are collected. In this setting, we introduce four estimators: (1) simple inverse weighted, (2) locally efficient, (3) doubly robust and (4)enriched inverse weighted. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of these estimators in a simulation study. We also use our methodology to estimate the causal effect of trauma care on in-hospital mortality using data from the National Study of Cost and Outcomes of Trauma.

Admission glycaemia and outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome

Some studies of patients with acute myocardial infarction have reported that hyperglycaemia at admission may be associated with a worse outcome. This study sought to evaluate the association of blood glucose at admission with the outcome of unselected patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Using the Acute Myocardial Infarction and unstable angina in Switzerland (AMIS Plus) registry, ACS patients were stratified according to their blood glucose on admission: group 1: 2.80-6.99 mmol/L, group 2: 7.00-11.09 mmol/L and group 3: > 11.10 mmol/L. Odds ratios for in-hospital mortality were calculated using logistic regression models. Of 2,786 patients, 73% were male and 21% were known to have diabetes. In-hospital mortality increased from 3% in group 1 to 7% in group 2 and to 15% in group 3. Higher glucose levels were associated with larger enzymatic infarct sizes (p<0.001) and had a weak negative correlation with angiographic or echographic left ventricular ejection fraction. High admission glycaemia in ACS patients remains a significant independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 1.08; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.05-1.14, p<0.001) per mmol/L. The OR for in-hospital mortality was 1.04 (95% CI 0.99-1.1; p=0.140) per mmol/L for patients with diabetes but 1.21 (95% CI 112-1.30; p<0.001) per mmol/L for non-diabetic patients. In conclusion, elevated glucose level in ACS patients on admission is a significant independent predictor of in-hospital mortality and is even more important for patients who do not have known diabetes.

The impact of statin treatment on presentation mode and early outcomes in acute coronary syndromes

OBJECTIVES: The role of statin use in the treatment of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) is not clear. The aim of our study was to evaluate the role of statins in ACS. METHODS: Using data from the Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland (AMIS Plus) Project, we compared the effects of chronic statin use, statin therapy after admission and no statin therapy on presentation mode and outcomes in ACS. RESULTS: Available data from the period 2001-2006 including 11,603 patients were analyzed. Major cardiac event rates and in-hospital mortality were more common in statin-naive patients compared to patients who received statins. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the importance of statin treatment in ACS. Chronic statin therapy seems to alter the initial presentation of ACS but it is questionable whether it provides an additional effect on early outcomes compared to the establishment of statin therapy after admission in statin-naive patients.

Complete arterial revascularization in multivessel coronary artery disease with 2 conduits (skeletonized grafts and T grafts)

BACKGROUND: Complete arterial CABG is a surgical option to improve long-term results in the treatment of coronary artery disease (CAD). Harvesting of multiple arterial grafts is commonly associated with prolonged operating times and increased trauma. By use of new operative techniques (skeletonized grafts and the T-graft approach), CABG in multivessel CAD is now possible with only 2 grafts. We present our experience in the use of these techniques on a routine basis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between March 1996 and September 1999, 490 patients (aged 61+/-9 years, 20% female) underwent complete arterial CABG. Left ventricular ejection fraction ranged from 15% to 85% (mean 59+/-15%). Triple-vessel disease was present in 88% of the patients. The incidence of diabetes mellitus was 32% (14% insulin dependent). Either both internal thoracic arteries (ITAs) (23%) or the left ITA and radial artery (77%) were used as conduits. In 85% of the patients, a T graft was created. Mean operating time was 198+/-46 minutes; bypass time, 82+/-25 minutes; and ischemic time, 58+/-22 minutes. Two to 7 (mean 4.1+/-0.9) anastomoses were performed per patient. Perioperative intra-aortic balloon pump was necessary in 12 patients (2.4%). The rate of perioperative myocardial infarction was 1.2%. Sternal complications occurred in 1. 0%, and in-hospital mortality was 2.2%. Postoperative coronary angiography in 172 patients (35%) documented excellent patency rates (left ITA 98.3%, right ITA 96.5%, and radial artery 96.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Complete arterial revascularization in multivessel CAD is possible with the use of only 2 grafts with good perioperative results. This approach allows for complete arterial CABG on a routine basis.

Early serum procalcitonin, interleukin-6, and 24-hour lactate clearance: useful indicators of septic infections in severely traumatized patients

BACKGROUND: Elevated lactate and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels were shown to correlate with mortality and multiple organ dysfunction in severely traumatized patients. The purpose of this study was to test whether an association exists between 24-hour lactate clearance, IL-6 and procalcitonin (PCT) levels, and the development of infectious complications in trauma patients. METHODS: A total of 1757 consecutive trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 16 admitted over a 10-year period were retrospectively analyzed over a 21-day period. Exclusion criteria included death within 72 h of admission (24.5%), late admission > 12 h after injury (16%), and age < 16 years (0.5%). Data are stated as the median (range). RESULTS: Altogether, 1032 trauma patients (76.2% male) with an average age of 38 years, a median ISS of 29 (16-75), and an Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score of 14 (0-40) were evaluated. The in-hospital mortality (>3 days) was 10%. Patients with insufficient 24-hour lactate clearance had a high rate of overall mortality and infections. Elevated early serum procalcitonin on days 1 to 5 after trauma was strongly associated with the subsequent development of sepsis (p < 0.01) but not with nonseptic infections. The kinetics of IL-6 were similar to those of PCT but did differentiate between infected and noninfected patients after day 5. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that elevated early procalcitonin and IL-6 levels and inadequate 24-hour lactate clearance help identify trauma patients who develop septic and nonseptic infectious complications. Definition of specific cutoff values and early monitoring of these parameters may help direct early surgical and antibiotic therapy and reduce infectious mortality.

Treatment of acute renal failure in the intensive care unit: lower costs by intermittent dialysis than continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration

Intermittent and continuous renal replacement therapies (RRTs) are available for the treatment of acute renal failure (ARF) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Although at present there are no adequately powered survival studies, available data suggest that both methods are equal with respect to patient outcome. Therefore, cost comparison between techniques is important for selecting the modality. Expenditures were prospectively assessed as a secondary end point during a controlled, randomized trial comparing intermittent hemodialysis (IHD) with continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration (CVVHDF). The outcome of the primary end points of this trial, that is, ICU and in-hospital mortality, has been previously published. One hundred twenty-five patients from a Swiss university hospital ICU were randomized either to CVVHDF or IHD. Out of these, 42 (CVVHDF) and 34 (IHD) were available for cost analysis. Patients' characteristics, delivered dialysis dose, duration of stay in the ICU or hospital, mortality rates, and recovery of renal function were not different between the two groups. Detailed 24-h time and material consumption protocols were available for 369 (CVVHDF) and 195 (IHD) treatment days. The mean daily duration of CVVHDF was 19.5 +/- 3.2 h/day, resulting in total expenditures of Euro 436 +/- 21 (21% for human resources and 79% for technical devices). For IHD (mean 3.0 +/- 0.4 h/treatment), the costs were lower (Euro 268 +/- 26), with a larger proportion for human resources (45%). Nursing time spent for CVVHDF was 113 +/- 50 min, and 198 +/- 63 min per IHD treatment. Total costs for RRT in ICU patients with ARF were lower when treated with IHD than with CVVHDF, and have to be taken into account for the selection of the method of RRT in ARF on the ICU.

Prevalence of retinal hemorrhages in pediatric patients after in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation: a prospective study

Child abuse occurs in 1% of children in the United States every year; 10% of the traumatic injuries suffered by children under 5 years old are nonaccidental, and 5% to 20% of these nonaccidental injuries are lethal. Rapid characterization of the injury as nonaccidental is of considerable benefit to child protection workers and police investigators seeking to safeguard the child care environment and apprehend and prosecute those who have committed the crime of child abuse. Physically abused children present with a variety of well-described injuries that are usually easily identifiable. In some cases, however, particularly those involving children with the shaken baby syndrome, obvious signs of physical injury may not exist. Although external signs of such an injury are infrequent, the rapid acceleration-deceleration forces involved often cause subdural hematomas and retinal hemorrhages, hallmarks of the syndrome. Frequently, retinal hemorrhages may be the only presenting sign that child abuse has occurred. Complicating the interpretation of the finding of retinal hemorrhages is the belief by some physicians that retinal hemorrhages may be the result of chest compressions given during resuscitative efforts. The objective of this study is to determine the prevalence of retinal hemorrhages after inpatient cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in pediatric patients hospitalized for nontraumatic illnesses in an intensive care unit.

Multivessel versus culprit vessel percutaneous coronary intervention in ST-elevation myocardial infarction: is more worse?

Aims: We examined what type of STEMI patients are more likely to undergo multivessel PCI (MPCI) in a "real-world" setting and whether MPCI leads to worse or better outcomes compared with single-vessel PCI (SPCI) after stratifying patients by risk. Methods and results: Among STEMI patients enrolled in the Swiss AMIS Plus registry between 2005 and 2012 (n=12,000), 4,941 were identified with multivessel disease. We then stratified patients based on MPCI use and their risk. High-risk patients were identified a priori as those with: 1) left main (LM) involvement (lesions, n=263); 2) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest; or 3) Killip class III/IV. Logistic regression models examined for predictors of MPCI use and the association between MPCI and in-hospital mortality. Three thousand eight hundred and thirty-three (77.6%) patients underwent SPCI and 1,108 (22.4%) underwent MPCI. Rates of MPCI were greater among high-risk patients for each of the three categories: 8.6% vs. 5.9% for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (p<0.01); 12.3% vs. 6.2% for Killip III/IV (p<0.001); and 14.5% vs. 2.7% for LM involvement (p<0.001). Overall, in-hospital mortality after MPCI was higher when compared with SPCI (7.3% vs. 4.4%; p<0.001). However, this result was not present when patients were stratified by risk: in-hospital mortality for MPCI vs. SPCI was 2.0% vs. 2.0% (p=1.00) in low-risk patients and 22.2% vs. 21.7% (p=1.00) in high-risk patients. Conclusions: High-risk patients are more likely to undergo MPCI. Furthermore, MPCI does not appear to be associated with higher mortality after stratifying patients based on their risk.

Gender-related mortality trends among diabetic patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: insights from a nationwide registry 1997-2010

BACKGROUND Data on temporal trends in outcomes, gender differences, and adherence to evidence-based therapy (EBT) of diabetic patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) are sparse. METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of prospectively acquired data on 3565 diabetic (2412 males and 1153 females) STEMI patients enrolled in the Swiss AMIS Plus registry between 1997 and 2010 and compared in-hospital outcomes and adherence to EBT with the nondiabetic population (n=15,531). RESULTS In-hospital mortality dramatically decreased in diabetic patients, from 19.9% in 1997 to 9.0% in 2010 (p trend<0.001) with an age-adjusted decrease of 6% per year of admission. Similar trends were observed for age-adjusted reinfarction (OR 0.86, p<0.001), cardiogenic shock (OR 0.88, p<0.001), as well as death, reinfarction, or stroke (OR 0.92, p<0.001). However, the mortality benefit over time was observed in diabetic males (p trend=0.006) but not females (p trend=0.082). In addition, mortality remained twice as high in diabetic patients compared with nondiabetic ones (12.1 vs. 6.1%, p<0.001) and diabetes was identified as independent predictor of mortality (OR 1.23, p=0.022). Within the diabetic cohort, females had higher mortality than males (16.1 vs. 10.2%, p<0.001) and female gender independently predicted in-hospital mortality (OR 1.45, p=0.015). Adherence to EBT significantly improved over time in diabetic patients (p trend<0.001) but remained inferior - especially in women - to the one of nondiabetic individuals. CONCLUSIONS In-hospital mortality and morbidity of diabetic STEMI patients in Switzerland improved dramatically over time but, compared with nondiabetic counterparts, gaps in outcomes as well as EBT use persisted, especially in women.

Validity of Charlson Comorbidity Index in patients hospitalised with acute coronary syndrome. Insights from the nationwide AMIS Plus registry 2002-2012

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to assess the impact of individual comorbid conditions as well as the weight assignment, predictive properties and discriminating power of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) on outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS A prospective multicentre observational study (AMIS Plus Registry) from 69 Swiss hospitals with 29 620 ACS patients enrolled from 2002 to 2012. The main outcome measures were in-hospital and 1-year follow-up mortality. RESULTS Of the patients, 27% were female (age 72.1±12.6 years) and 73% were male (64.2±12.9 years). 46.8% had comorbidities and they were less likely to receive guideline-recommended drug therapy and reperfusion. Heart failure (adjusted OR 1.88; 95% CI 1.57 to 2.25), metastatic tumours (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.60 to 3.19), renal diseases (OR 1.84; 95% CI 1.60 to 2.11) and diabetes (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.54) were strong predictors of in-hospital mortality. In this population, CCI weighted the history of prior myocardial infarction higher (1 instead of -0.4, 95% CI -1.2 to 0.3 points) but heart failure (1 instead of 3.7, 95% CI 2.6 to 4.7) and renal disease (2 instead of 3.5, 95% CI 2.7 to 4.4) lower than the benchmark, where all comorbidities, age and gender were used as predictors. However, the model with CCI and age has an identical discrimination to this benchmark (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were both 0.76). CONCLUSIONS Comorbidities greatly influenced clinical presentation, therapies received and the outcome of patients admitted with ACS. Heart failure, diabetes, renal disease or metastatic tumours had a major impact on mortality. CCI seems to be an appropriate prognostic indicator for in-hospital and 1-year outcomes in ACS patients. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER NCT01305785.

Percutaneous left-ventricular support with the Impella-2.5-assist device in acute cardiogenic shock: results of the Impella-EUROSHOCK-registry

BACKGROUND Acute cardiogenic shock after myocardial infarction is associated with high in-hospital mortality attributable to persisting low-cardiac output. The Impella-EUROSHOCK-registry evaluates the safety and efficacy of the Impella-2.5-percutaneous left-ventricular assist device in patients with cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS This multicenter registry retrospectively included 120 patients (63.6±12.2 years; 81.7% male) with cardiogenic shock from acute myocardial infarction receiving temporary circulatory support with the Impella-2.5-percutaneous left-ventricular assist device. The primary end point evaluated mortality at 30 days. The secondary end point analyzed the change of plasma lactate after the institution of hemodynamic support, and the rate of early major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events as well as long-term survival. Thirty-day mortality was 64.2% in the study population. After Impella-2.5-percutaneous left-ventricular assist device implantation, lactate levels decreased from 5.8±5.0 mmol/L to 4.7±5.4 mmol/L (P=0.28) and 2.5±2.6 mmol/L (P=0.023) at 24 and 48 hours, respectively. Early major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were reported in 18 (15%) patients. Major bleeding at the vascular access site, hemolysis, and pericardial tamponade occurred in 34 (28.6%), 9 (7.5%), and 2 (1.7%) patients, respectively. The parameters of age >65 and lactate level >3.8 mmol/L at admission were identified as predictors of 30-day mortality. After 317±526 days of follow-up, survival was 28.3%. CONCLUSIONS In patients with acute cardiogenic shock from acute myocardial infarction, Impella 2.5-treatment is feasible and results in a reduction of lactate levels, suggesting improved organ perfusion. However, 30-day mortality remains high in these patients. This likely reflects the last-resort character of Impella-2.5-application in selected patients with a poor hemodynamic profile and a greater imminent risk of death. Carefully conducted randomized controlled trials are necessary to evaluate the efficacy of Impella-2.5-support in this high-risk patient group.

Catheter removal versus retention in the management of catheter-associated enterococcal bloodstream infections

BACKGROUND Enterococci are an important cause of central venous catheter (CVC)-associated bloodstream infections (CA-BSI). It is unclear whether CVC removal is necessary to successfully manage enterococcal CA-BSI. METHODS A 12-month retrospective cohort study of adults with enterococcal CA-BSI was conducted at a tertiary care hospital; clinical, microbiological and outcome data were collected. RESULTS A total of 111 patients had an enterococcal CA-BSI. The median age was 58.2 years (range 21 to 94 years). There were 45 (40.5%) infections caused by Entercoccus faecalis (among which 10 [22%] were vancomycin resistant), 61 (55%) by Enterococcus faecium (57 [93%] vancomycin resistant) and five (4.5%) by other Enterococcus species. Patients were treated with linezolid (n=51 [46%]), vancomycin (n=37 [33%]), daptomycin (n=11 [10%]), ampicillin (n=2 [2%]) or quinupristin/dalfopristin (n=2 [2%]); seven (n=6%) patients did not receive adequate enterococcal treatment. Additionally, 24 (22%) patients received adjunctive gentamicin treatment. The CVC was retained in 29 (26.1%) patients. Patients with removed CVCs showed lower rates of in-hospital mortality (15 [18.3%] versus 11 [37.9]; P=0.03), but similar rates of recurrent bacteremia (nine [11.0%] versus two (7.0%); P=0.7) and a similar post-BSI length of hospital stay (median days [range]) (11.1 [1.7 to 63.1 days] versus 9.3 [1.9 to 31.8 days]; P=0.3). Catheter retention was an independent predictor of mortality (OR 3.34 [95% CI 1.21 to 9.26]). CONCLUSIONS To the authors' knowledge, the present article describes the largest enterococcal CA-BSI series to date. Mortality was increased among patients who had their catheter retained. Additional prospective studies are necessary to determine the optimal management of enterococcal CA-BSI.

Drug-eluting stents compared to bare-metal stents improve short-term survival in patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention: a nationwide prospective analysis of the AMIS Plus registry

BACKGROUND Recently, it has been suggested that the type of stent used in primary percutaneous coronary interventions (pPCI) might impact upon the outcomes of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Indeed, drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce neointimal hyperplasia compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). Moreover, the later generation DES, due to its biocompatible polymer coatings and stent design, allows for greater deliverability, improved endothelial healing and therefore less restenosis and thrombus generation. However, data on the safety and performance of DES in large cohorts of AMI is still limited. AIM To compare the early outcome of DES vs. BMS in AMI patients. METHODS This was a prospective, multicentre analysis containing patients from 64 hospitals in Switzerland with AMI undergoing pPCI between 2005 and 2013. The primary endpoint was in-hospital all-cause death, whereas the secondary endpoint included a composite measure of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) of death, reinfarction, and cerebrovascular event. RESULTS Of 20,464 patients with a primary diagnosis of AMI and enrolled to the AMIS Plus registry, 15,026 were referred for pPCI and 13,442 received stent implantation. 10,094 patients were implanted with DES and 2,260 with BMS. The overall in-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients with DES compared to those with BMS implantation (2.6% vs. 7.1%,p < 0.001). The overall in-hospital MACCE after DES was similarly lower compared to BMS (3.5% vs. 7.6%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for all confounding covariables, DES remained an independent predictor for lower in-hospital mortality (OR 0.51,95% CI 0.40-0.67, p < 0.001). Since groups differed as regards to baseline characteristics and pharmacological treatment, we performed a propensity score matching (PSM) to limit potential biases. Even after the PSM, DES implantation remained independently associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.76, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS In unselected patients from a nationwide, real-world cohort, we found DES, compared to BMS, was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and MACCE. The identification of optimal treatment strategies of patients with AMI needs further randomised evaluation; however, our findings suggest a potential benefit with DES.