Probabilistic downscaling of remote sensing data with applications for multi-scale biogeochemical flux modeling

Upscaling ecological information to larger scales in space and downscaling remote sensing observations or model simulations to finer scales remain grand challenges in Earth system science. Downscaling often involves inferring subgrid information from coarse-scale data, and such ill-posed problems are classically addressed using regularization. Here, we apply two-dimensional Tikhonov Regularization (2DTR) to simulate subgrid surface patterns for ecological applications. Specifically, we test the ability of 2DTR to simulate the spatial statistics of high-resolution (4 m) remote sensing observations of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a tundra landscape. We find that the 2DTR approach as applied here can capture the major mode of spatial variability of the high-resolution information, but not multiple modes of spatial variability, and that the Lagrange multiplier (γ) used to impose the condition of smoothness across space is related to the range of the experimental semivariogram. We used observed and 2DTR-simulated maps of NDVI to estimate landscape-level leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP). NDVI maps simulated using a γ value that approximates the range of observed NDVI result in a landscape-level GPP estimate that differs by ca 2% from those created using observed NDVI. Following findings that GPP per unit LAI is lower near vegetation patch edges, we simulated vegetation patch edges using multiple approaches and found that simulated GPP declined by up to 12% as a result. 2DTR can generate random landscapes rapidly and can be applied to disaggregate ecological information and compare of spatial observations against simulated landscapes.

Are CGE Models still useful in economic policy making?

This paper develops background considerations to help better framing the results of a CGE exercise. Three main criticisms are usually addressed to CGE efforts. First, they are too aggregate, their conclusions failing to shed light on relevant sectors or issues. Second, they imply huge data requirements. Timeliness is frequently jeopardised by out-dated sources, benchmarks referring to realities gone by. Finally, results are meaningless, as they answer wrong or ill-posed questions. Modelling demands end up by creating a rather artificial context, where the original questions lose content. In spite of a positive outlook on the first two, crucial questions lie in the third point. After elaborating such questions, and trying to answer some, the text argues that CGE models can come closer to reality. If their use is still scarce to give way to a fruitful symbiosis between negotiations and simulation results, they remain the only available technique providing a global, inter-related way of capturing economy-wide effects of several different policies. International organisations can play a major role supporting and encouraging improvements. They are also uniquely positioned to enhance information and data sharing, as well as putting people from various origins together, to share their experiences. A serious and complex homework is however required, to correct, at least, the most dangerous present shortcomings of the technique.

POPT: uma abordagem de ensino de programação orientada a problema e testes

There is a growing interest of the Computer Science education community for including testing concepts on introductory programming courses. Aiming at contributing to this issue, we introduce POPT, a Problem-Oriented Programming and Testing approach for Introductory Programming Courses. POPT main goal is to improve the traditional method of teaching introductory programming that concentrates mainly on implementation and neglects testing. POPT extends POP (Problem Oriented Programing) methodology proposed on the PhD Thesis of Andrea Mendonça (UFCG). In both methodologies POPT and POP, students skills in dealing with ill-defined problems must be developed since the first programming courses. In POPT however, students are stimulated to clarify ill-defined problem specifications, guided by de definition of test cases (in a table-like manner). This paper presents POPT, and TestBoot a tool developed to support the methodology. In order to evaluate the approach a case study and a controlled experiment (which adopted the Latin Square design) were performed. In an Introductory Programming course of Computer Science and Software Engineering Graduation Programs at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The study results have shown that, when compared to a Blind Testing approach, POPT stimulates the implementation of programs of better external quality the first program version submitted by POPT students passed in twice the number of test cases (professor-defined ones) when compared to non-POPT students. Moreover, POPT students submitted fewer program versions and spent more time to submit the first version to the automatic evaluation system, which lead us to think that POPT students are stimulated to think better about the solution they are implementing. The controlled experiment confirmed the influence of the proposed methodology on the quality of the code developed by POPT students

Efficiency Bounds for Estimating Linear Functionals of Nonparametric Regression Models with Endogenous Regressors

Consider a nonparametric regression model Y=mu*(X) + e, where the explanatory variables X are endogenous and e satisfies the conditional moment restriction E[e|W]=0 w.p.1 for instrumental variables W. It is well known that in these models the structural parameter mu* is 'ill-posed' in the sense that the function mapping the data to mu* is not continuous. In this paper, we derive the efficiency bounds for estimating linear functionals E[p(X)mu*(X)] and int_{supp(X)}p(x)mu*(x)dx, where p is a known weight function and supp(X) the support of X, without assuming mu* to be well-posed or even identified.

Regularization for sparsity in statistical analysis and machine learning

Pragmatism is the leading motivation of regularization. We can understand regularization as a modification of the maximum-likelihood estimator so that a reasonable answer could be given in an unstable or ill-posed situation. To mention some typical examples, this happens when fitting parametric or non-parametric models with more parameters than data or when estimating large covariance matrices. Regularization is usually used, in addition, to improve the bias-variance tradeoff of an estimation. Then, the definition of regularization is quite general, and, although the introduction of a penalty is probably the most popular type, it is just one out of multiple forms of regularization. In this dissertation, we focus on the applications of regularization for obtaining sparse or parsimonious representations, where only a subset of the inputs is used. A particular form of regularization, L1-regularization, plays a key role for reaching sparsity. Most of the contributions presented here revolve around L1-regularization, although other forms of regularization are explored (also pursuing sparsity in some sense). In addition to present a compact review of L1-regularization and its applications in statistical and machine learning, we devise methodology for regression, supervised classification and structure induction of graphical models. Within the regression paradigm, we focus on kernel smoothing learning, proposing techniques for kernel design that are suitable for high dimensional settings and sparse regression functions. We also present an application of regularized regression techniques for modeling the response of biological neurons. Supervised classification advances deal, on the one hand, with the application of regularization for obtaining a na¨ıve Bayes classifier and, on the other hand, with a novel algorithm for brain-computer interface design that uses group regularization in an efficient manner. Finally, we present a heuristic for inducing structures of Gaussian Bayesian networks using L1-regularization as a filter. El pragmatismo es la principal motivación de la regularización. Podemos entender la regularización como una modificación del estimador de máxima verosimilitud, de tal manera que se pueda dar una respuesta cuando la configuración del problema es inestable. A modo de ejemplo, podemos mencionar el ajuste de modelos paramétricos o no paramétricos cuando hay más parámetros que casos en el conjunto de datos, o la estimación de grandes matrices de covarianzas. Se suele recurrir a la regularización, además, para mejorar el compromiso sesgo-varianza en una estimación. Por tanto, la definición de regularización es muy general y, aunque la introducción de una función de penalización es probablemente el método más popular, éste es sólo uno de entre varias posibilidades. En esta tesis se ha trabajado en aplicaciones de regularización para obtener representaciones dispersas, donde sólo se usa un subconjunto de las entradas. En particular, la regularización L1 juega un papel clave en la búsqueda de dicha dispersión. La mayor parte de las contribuciones presentadas en la tesis giran alrededor de la regularización L1, aunque también se exploran otras formas de regularización (que igualmente persiguen un modelo disperso). Además de presentar una revisión de la regularización L1 y sus aplicaciones en estadística y aprendizaje de máquina, se ha desarrollado metodología para regresión, clasificación supervisada y aprendizaje de estructura en modelos gráficos. Dentro de la regresión, se ha trabajado principalmente en métodos de regresión local, proponiendo técnicas de diseño del kernel que sean adecuadas a configuraciones de alta dimensionalidad y funciones de regresión dispersas. También se presenta una aplicación de las técnicas de regresión regularizada para modelar la respuesta de neuronas reales. Los avances en clasificación supervisada tratan, por una parte, con el uso de regularización para obtener un clasificador naive Bayes y, por otra parte, con el desarrollo de un algoritmo que usa regularización por grupos de una manera eficiente y que se ha aplicado al diseño de interfaces cerebromáquina. Finalmente, se presenta una heurística para inducir la estructura de redes Bayesianas Gaussianas usando regularización L1 a modo de filtro.

Inferring identify from DNA profile evidence.

The controversy over the interpretation of DNA profile evidence in forensic identification can be attributed in part to confusion over the mode(s) of statistical inference appropriate to this setting. Although there has been substantial discussion in the literature of, for example, the role of population genetics issues, few authors have made explicit the inferential framework which underpins their arguments. This lack of clarity has led both to unnecessary debates over ill-posed or inappropriate questions and to the neglect of some issues which can have important consequences. We argue that the mode of statistical inference which seems to underlie the arguments of some authors, based on a hypothesis testing framework, is not appropriate for forensic identification. We propose instead a logically coherent framework in which, for example, the roles both of the population genetics issues and of the nonscientific evidence in a case are incorporated. Our analysis highlights several widely held misconceptions in the DNA profiling debate. For example, the profile frequency is not directly relevant to forensic inference. Further, very small match probabilities may in some settings be consistent with acquittal. Although DNA evidence is typically very strong, our analysis of the coherent approach highlights situations which can arise in practice where alternative methods for assessing DNA evidence may be misleading.

Annual report /

Includes appendices.

Annual report /

Description based on: July 1, 1986 to June 30, 1987.

Boundary integral equations for acoustical inverse sound-soft scattering

The shape of a plane acoustical sound-soft obstacle is detected from knowledge of the far field pattern for one time-harmonic incident field. Two methods based on solving a system of integral equations for the incoming wave and the far field pattern are investigated. Properties of the integral operators required in order to apply regularization, i.e. injectivity and denseness of the range, are proved.

An iterative method for reconstruction of temperature

An iterative method for the reconstruction of a stationary three-dimensional temperature field, from Cauchy data given on a part of the boundary, is presented. At each iteration step, a series of mixed well-posed boundary value problems are solved for the heat operator and its adjoint. A convergence proof of this method in a weighted L 2-space is include

Well-Behavior, Well-Posedness and Nonsmooth Analysis

AMS subject classification: 90C30, 90C33.

Inverse space-dependent force problems for the wave equation

The determination of the displacement and the space-dependent force acting on a vibrating structure from measured final or time-average displacement observation is thoroughly investigated. Several aspects related to the existence and uniqueness of a solution of the linear but ill-posed inverse force problems are highlighted. After that, in order to capture the solution a variational formulation is proposed and the gradient of the least-squares functional that is minimized is rigorously and explicitly derived. Numerical results obtained using the Landweber method and the conjugate gradient method are presented and discussed illustrating the convergence of the iterative procedures for exact input data. Furthermore, for noisy data the semi-convergence phenomenon appears, as expected, and stability is restored by stopping the iterations according to the discrepancy principle criterion once the residual becomes close to the amount of noise. The present investigation will be significant to researchers concerned with wave propagation and control of vibrating structures.

Resolução em tomografia de tempo de trânsito poço-a-poço: a dependência da iluminação

The key aspect limiting resolution in crosswell traveltime tomography is illumination, a well known result but not as well exemplified. Resolution in the 2D case is revisited using a simple geometric approach based on the angular aperture distribution and the Radon Transform properties. Analitically it is shown that if an interface has dips contained in the angular aperture limits in all points, it is correctly imaged in the tomogram. By inversion of synthetic data this result is confirmed and it is also evidenced that isolated artifacts might be present when the dip is near the illumination limit. In the inverse sense, however, if an interface is interpretable from a tomogram, even an aproximately horizontal interface, there is no guarantee that it corresponds to a true interface. Similarly, if a body is present in the interwell region it is diffusely imaged in the tomogram, but its interfaces - particularly vertical edges - can not be resolved and additional artifacts might be present. Again, in the inverse sense, there is no guarantee that an isolated anomaly corresponds to a true anomalous body because this anomaly can also be an artifact. Jointly, these results state the dilemma of ill-posed inverse problems: absence of guarantee of correspondence to the true distribution. The limitations due to illumination may not be solved by the use of mathematical constraints. It is shown that crosswell tomograms derived by the use of sparsity constraints, using both Discrete Cosine Transform and Daubechies bases, basically reproduces the same features seen in tomograms obtained with the classic smoothness constraint. Interpretation must be done always taking in consideration the a priori information and the particular limitations due to illumination. An example of interpreting a real data survey in this context is also presented.

Resolução em tomografia de tempo de trânsito poço-a-poço: a dependência da iluminação

The key aspect limiting resolution in crosswell traveltime tomography is illumination, a well known result but not as well exemplified. Resolution in the 2D case is revisited using a simple geometric approach based on the angular aperture distribution and the Radon Transform properties. Analitically it is shown that if an interface has dips contained in the angular aperture limits in all points, it is correctly imaged in the tomogram. By inversion of synthetic data this result is confirmed and it is also evidenced that isolated artifacts might be present when the dip is near the illumination limit. In the inverse sense, however, if an interface is interpretable from a tomogram, even an aproximately horizontal interface, there is no guarantee that it corresponds to a true interface. Similarly, if a body is present in the interwell region it is diffusely imaged in the tomogram, but its interfaces - particularly vertical edges - can not be resolved and additional artifacts might be present. Again, in the inverse sense, there is no guarantee that an isolated anomaly corresponds to a true anomalous body because this anomaly can also be an artifact. Jointly, these results state the dilemma of ill-posed inverse problems: absence of guarantee of correspondence to the true distribution. The limitations due to illumination may not be solved by the use of mathematical constraints. It is shown that crosswell tomograms derived by the use of sparsity constraints, using both Discrete Cosine Transform and Daubechies bases, basically reproduces the same features seen in tomograms obtained with the classic smoothness constraint. Interpretation must be done always taking in consideration the a priori information and the particular limitations due to illumination. An example of interpreting a real data survey in this context is also presented.

Curriculum theory, curriculum policy and the problem of ill-disciplined thinking

This paper examines the implications of policy fracture and arms length governance within the decision making processes currently shaping curriculum design within the English education system. In particular it argues that an unresolved ‘ideological fracture’ at government level has been passed down to school leaders whose response to the dilemma is distorted by the target-driven agenda of arms length agencies. Drawing upon the findings of a large scale on-line survey of history teaching in English secondary schools, this paper illustrates the problems that occur when policy making is divorced from curriculum theory, and in particular from any consideration of the nature of knowledge. Drawing on the social realist theory of knowledge elaborated by Young (2008), we argue that the rapid spread of alternative curricular arrangements, implemented in the absence of an understanding of curriculum theory, undermines the value of disciplined thinking to the detriment of many young people, particularly those in areas of social and economic deprivation.