Popper's Explications of Ad hocness: Circularity, Empirical Content, and Scientific Practice

Popper's explications of 'ad hoc' in relation to hypotheses and explanations turn out to be either trivial, confused or mistaken. One such explication I discuss at length is circularity; another is reduction in empirical content. I argue that non-circularity is preferable to non-ad hocness for an acceptable explanation or explanans, and I isolate some persistent errors in his analysis. Second, Popper is barking up the wrong tree in proscribing reductions in empirical content in novel hypotheses. Such reductions may constitute scientific progress. He fails to show that ad hoc hypothesis are the threat to science he claims.

Evolutionary distinctiveness and status of the endangered Lake Eacham rainbowfish (Melanotaenia eachamensis)

The Lake Eacham rainbowfish (Melanotaenia eachamensis) was declared extinct in the wild in the late 1980s after it disappeared from its only known locality, an isolated crater lake in northeast Queensland. Doubts have been raised about whether this taxon is distinct from surrounding populations of the eastern rainbowfish (Melanotaenia splendida splendida). We examined the evolutionary distinctiveness of M. eachamensis, obtained from captive stocks, relative to M. s. splendida through analysis of variation in mtDNA sequences, nuclear microsatellites, and morphometric characters Captive M. eachamensis had mtDNAs that were highly divergent from those in most populations of M. s. splendida. A broader geographic survey using RFLPs revealed some populations initially identified as M. s. splendida, that carried eachamensis mtDNA, whereas some others had mixtures of eachamensis and splendida mtDNA. The presence of eachamensis-like mtDNA in these populations could in principle be due to (1) sorting of ancestral polymorphisms, (2) introgression of M. eachamensis mtDNA into M. s. splendida, or (3) incorrect species boundaries, such that some populations currently assigned to M. s. splendida are M. eachamensis or are mixtures of the two species. These alternatives hypotheses were evaluated through comparisons of four nuclear microsatellite loci and morphometrics and meristics. In analyses of both data sets, populations of M. s. splendida with eachamensis mtDNA were more similar to captive M. eachamensis than to M. s. splendida with splendida mtDNA, supporting hypothesis 3. These results are significant for the management of M. eachamensis in several respects. First the combined molecular and morphological evidence indicates that M. eachamensis is a distinct species and a discrete evolutionarily significant unit worthy of conservation effort. Second it appears that the species boundary between M. eachamensis and M. s. splendida has been misdiagnosed such that there are extant populations on the Atherton Tableland as well as areas where both forms coexist. Accordingly we suggest that M. eachamensis be listed as vulnerable, rather than critical (or extinct in the wild). Third, the discovery of extant but genetically divergent populations of M. eachamensis on the Atherton Tableland broadens the options for future reintroductions to Lake Eacham.

Attributions for the performance of self and other: It matters who the "other" is

This study tested hypotheses that locus of causality attributions for the academic performance of others are influenced by whether the other is a specific individual, or a typical other, and whether the other is similar or dissimilar to self. The research was carried out in two studies. Study 1 entailed development of two scales to measure perceptions of interpersonal similarity: 254 Australian undergraduates rated their similarity to either a specific other or to typical other students. In Study 2, 332 subjects completed one of the 16-item scales developed in Study 1, along with Rosenberg's self-esteem scale, and self-attribution and other-attribution versions of the Multidimensional Multi-attribution Causation Scale (MMCS). Results showed that attributions for the academic performance of others were strongly affected by whether the other was perceived to be similar or dissimilar to self, especially when the other was a specific individual. In particular, causal attributions for similar specific others were more favourable than attributions for self.

Cannabis use and psychosis

This paper reviews evidence on two hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis. The first hypothesis is that heavy cannabis use may cause a cannabis psychosis-a psychosis that would not occur in the absence of cannabis use, the symptoms of which are preceded by heavy cannabis use and remit after abstinence. The second hypothesis is that cannabis use may precipitate schizophrenia, or exacerbate its symptoms. Evaluation of these hypotheses requires evidence of an association between cannabis use and psychosis, that is unlikely to be due to chance, in which cannabis use precedes psychosis, and in which we can exclude the hypothesis that the relationship is due to other factors, such as other drug use, or a personal vulnerability to psychosis. There is some clinical support for the first hypothesis. If these disorders exist they seem to be rare, because they require very high doses of THC, the prolonged use of highly potent forms of cannabis, or a pre-existing (but as yet unspecified) vulnerability. There is more support for the second hypothesis, in that a large prospective study has shown a linear relationship between the frequency with which cannabis has been used by age 18 and the risks over the subsequent 15 years of a diagnosis of schizophrenia. It is still unclear whether this means that cannabis use precipitates schizophrenia, whether it is a form of self-medication, or whether the association is due to the use of other drugs, such as amphetamines, which heavy cannabis users are more Likely to use. There is stronger evidence that cannabis use can exacerbate the symptoms of schizophrenia. Mental health services should identify patients with schizophrenia who use alcohol, cannabis and other drugs and advise them to abstain or to greatly reduce their drug use.

Exploring sequential data: Commentary on Bowers, Jentsch, Salas, and Braun (1998)

In an investigation intended to determine training needs of night crews, Bowers et al. (1998, this issue) report two studies showing that the patterning of communication is a better discriminator of good and poor crews than is the content of communication. Bowers et al. characterize their studies as intended to generate hypotheses for training needs and draw connections with Exploratory Sequential Data Analysis (ESDA). Although applauding the intentions of Bowers ct al., we point out some concerns with their characterization and implementation of ESDA. Our principal concern is that the Bowers et al. exploration of the data does not convincingly lead them back to a better fundamental understanding of the original phenomena they are investigating.

The N-15 natural abundance (delta N-15) of ecosystem samples reflects measures of water availability

We assembled a globally-derived data set for site-averaged foliar delta(15)N, the delta(15)N of whole surface mineral soil and corresponding site factors (mean annual rainfall and temperature, latitude, altitude and soil pH). The delta(15)N of whole soil was related to all of the site variables (including foliar delta(15)N) except altitude and, when regressed on latitude and rainfall, provided the best model of these data, accounting for 49% of the variation in whole soil delta(15)N. As single linear regressions, site-averaged foliar delta(15)N was more strongly related to rainfall than was whole soil delta(15)N. A smaller data set showed similar, negative correlations between whole soil delta(15)N, site-averaged foliar delta(15)N and soil moisture variations during a single growing season. The negative correlation between water availability (measured here by rainfall and temperature) and soil or plant delta(15)N fails at the landscape scale, where wet spots are delta(15)N-enriched relative to their drier surroundings. Here we present global and seasonal data, postulate a proximate mechanism for the overall relationship between water availability and ecosystem delta(15)N and, newly, a mechanism accounting for the highly delta(15)N-depleted values found in the foliage and soils of many wet/cold ecosystems. These hypotheses are complemented by documentation of the present gaps in knowledge, suggesting lines of research which will provide new insights into terrestrial N-cycling. Our conclusions are consistent with those of Austin and Vitousek (1998) that foliar (and soil) delta(15)N appear to be related to the residence time of whole ecosystem N.

Rapid evolution towards equal sex ratios in a system with heterogamety

The equal sex ratios found in many species with heterogametic sex determination may be a consequence of selection for equality or the result of the Mendelian segregation of the two sex chromosomes. A lack of genetic variation in sex ratio in species with heterogamety has been the major obstacle in distinguishing between these two hypotheses. We overcome this obstacle by generating hybrids between two species of Drosophila. The resulting hybrid lines had biased sex ratios, allowing us to observe the evolution of sex ratio in replicate populations. Sex ratio converged towards 1:1 after 16 generations of natural selection. These changes in sex ratio were not due to differences in viability between the sexes and the loci underlying the variation in sex ratio were not sex-linked. Equal sex ratios may therefore be the result of natural selection as Fisher predicted.

Is there a role for transversus abdominis in lumbo-pelvic stability?

There has been considerable interest in the literature regarding the function of transversus abdominis, the deepest of the abdominal muscles, and the clinical approach to training this muscle. With the development of techniques for the investigation of this muscle involving the insertion of fine-wire electromyographic electrodes under the guidance of ultrasound imaging it has been possible to test the hypotheses related to its normal function and function in people with low back pain. The purpose of this review is to provide an appraisal of the current evidence for the role of transversus abdominis in spinal stability, to develop a model of how the contribution of this muscle differs from the other abdominal muscles and to interpret these findings in terms of the consequences of changes in this function.

Cannabis use and psychosis: a review of clinical and epidemiological evidence

Objective: This paper evaluates evidence for two hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis: (i) that heavy cannabis use causes a 'cannabis psychosis', i.e, a psychotic disorder that would not have occurred in the absence of cannabis use and which can be recognised by its pattern of symptoms and their relationship to cannabis use; and (ii) that cannabis use may precipitate schizophrenia, or exacerbate its symptoms. Method: Literature relevant to drug use and schizophrenia is reviewed. Results: There is limited clinical evidence for the first hypothesis. If 'cannabis psychoses' exist, they seem to be rare, because they require very high doses of tetrahydrocannabinol, the prolonged use of highly potent forms of cannabis, or a preexisting (but as yet unspecified) vulnerability, or both. There is more support for the second hypothesis in that a large prospective study has shown a linear relationship between the frequency with which cannabis had been used by age 18 and the risk over the subsequent 15 years of receiving a diagnosis of schizophrenia. Conclusions: It is still unclear whether this means that cannabis use precipitates schizophrenia, whether cannabis use is a form of 'self-medication', or whether the association is due to the use of other drugs, such as amphetamines, which heavy cannabis users are more likely to use. There is better clinical and epidemiological evidence that cannabis use can exacerbate the symptoms of schizophrenia.

Cytomegalovirus MHC class I homologues and natural killer

Viruses that establish a persistent infection with their host have evolved numerous strategies to evade the immune system. Consequently, they are useful tools to dissect the complex cellular processes that comprise the immune response. Rapid progress has been made in recent years in defining the role of cellular MHC class I molecules in regulating the response of natural killer (NK) cells. Concomitantly, the roles of the MHC class I homologues encoded by human and mouse cytomegaloviruses in evading or subverting NK cell responses has received considerable interest. This review discusses the results from a number of studies that have pursued the biological function of the viral MHC class I homologues. Based on the evidence from these studies, hypotheses for the possible role of these intriguing molecules are presented. (C) 2000 Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS.

Assessing perceived need for mental health care in a community survey: development of the Perceived Need for Care Questionnaire (PNCQ)

Background: The Perceived Need for Care Questionnaire (PNCQ) was designed for the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing. The PNCQ complemented collection of data on diagnosis and disability with the survey participants' perceptions of their needs for mental health care and the meeting of those needs. The four-stage design of the PNCQ mimics a conversational exploration of the topic of perceived needs. Five categories of perceived need are each assigned to one of four levels of perceived need (no need, unmet need, partially met need and met need). For unmet need and partially met need, information on barriers to care is collected, Methods: Inter-rater reliabilities of perceived needs assessed by the PNCQ were examined in a study of 145 anxiety clinic attenders. Construct validity of these items was tested, using a multi-trait multi-method approach and hypotheses regarding extreme groups, in a study with a sample of 51 general practice and community psychiatric service patients. Results: The instrument is brief to administer and has proved feasible for use in various settings. Inter-rater reliabilities for major categories, measured by the kappa statistic, exceeded 0.60 in most cases; for the summary category of all perceived needs, inter-rater reliability was 0.62. The multi-trait multi-method approach lent support to the construct validity of the instrument, as did findings in extreme groups. Conclusions: The PNCQ shows acceptable feasibility, reliability and validity, adding to the range of assessment tools available for epidemiological and health services research.

The effects of adolescent cannabis use on educational attainment: a review

This paper reviews research examining the link between cannabis use and educational attainment among youth. Cross-sectional studies have revealed significant associations between cannabis use and a range of measures of educational performance including lower grade point average, less satisfaction with school, negative attitudes to school, increased rates of school absenteeism and poor school performance. However, results of cross-sectional studies cannot be used to determine whether cannabis use causes poor educational performance, poor educational performance is a cause of cannabis use or whether both outcomes are a reflection of common risk factors. Nonetheless, a number of prospective longitudinal studies have indicated that early cannabis use may significantly increase risks of subsequent poor school performance and, in particular, early school leaving. This association has remained after control for a wide range of prospectively assessed covariates. Possible mechanisms underlying an association between early cannabis use and educational attainment include the possibility that cannabis use induces an 'amotivational syndrome' or that cannabis use causes cognitive impairment. However, there appears to be relatively little empirical support for these hypotheses. It is proposed that the link between early cannabis use and educational attainment arises because of the social context within which cannabis is used. In particular, early cannabis use appears to be associated with the adoption of an anti-conventional lifestyle characterized by affiliations with delinquent and substance using peers, and the precocious adoption of adult roles including early school leaving, leaving the parental home and early parenthood.

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.

Function of CMV-encoded MHC class I homologues

Homologues of MHC class I proteins have been identified in the genomes of human, murine and rat cytomegaloviruses (CMVs). Given the pivotal role of the MHC class I protein in cellular immunity, it has been postulated that the viral homologues subvert the normal antiviral immune response of the host, thus promoting virus replication and dissemination in an otherwise hostile environment. This review focuses on recent studies of the CMV MHC class I homologues at the molecular, cellular and whole animal level and presents current hypotheses for their roles in the CMV life cycle.

Does the tendency to act impulsively underlie binge eating and alcohol use problems? An empirical investigation

The co-occurrence of problem drinking and binge eating and purging has been well documented. However, there has been relatively little investigation of etiological models that may influence the development of this co-occurrence. This study tests the hypotheses that impulsivity is heightened in eating disordered women compared with controls, and that women with comorbid bulimia and alcohol use disorders show higher impulsivity than bulimic-only women. The Impulsivity scale, BIS/BAS scales, State Anxiety Inventory, and a behavioural measure of reward responsiveness (CARROT) were administered to 22 women with bulimia, 23 women with comorbid bulimia and alcohol abuse/dependence, and 21 control women. As hypothesised, eating disordered women scored higher than controls on several self-report measures of impulsivity and sorted cards faster during a financially rewarded trial on the behavioural task. Also, as predicted, comorbid women scored higher than bulimic women on the Impulsivity scale. These findings suggest that individual differences in impulsiveness and a tendency to approach rewarding stimuli may contribute to developing these disorders. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.